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moving average
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tony stark
#21 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 11:51:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/8/2008
Posts: 947
@ Lovely I agree with you that though with a few caveat emptor. Due to the 10% rule the price can never really rise or drop in an instant and follows the trend. The moving average would help in showing trend. As someone alluded to earlier a fast and slow moving average would be more useful than the slow 15 day average that you are using. The moving average is not simple probability but more of linear regression and modelling.
That said the trends do not occur in a vacuum and information is critical here and can help in you getting in and getting out.
The 2 main barriers to using moving averages is where to get the information( Not sure what mystocks premium content get) Manually entering the data and calculating it is cumbersome to say the least. The second barrier and the most important is the illiquidity of our market. Getting in and out is not simple hence by the time you are acting on your signals and acquiring the stock the market has already changed directions.
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kizee1
#22 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 11:51:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Why 15, why not 14 or 16?



becoz a workin week has 5 days, so multiples of 5 are used

@lovely...wat r u doing on mumias? its below the 50,100 and 200 dmas...and i guess since u cant short ur long? it luks headed to 9.65
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mukiha
#23 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 12:20:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@tony stark; http://live.mystocks.co.ke gives 3-month data for free... here is 15dma for MSC (pink curve):

Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Monday, November 08, 2010 12:24 PM | Reason: Not specified
mukiha
#24 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 12:22:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
?@#$#@!%^&*((**&^$#$$$$<><><???!@@#@#$%^&*()_+)(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()_)(*&^%$#$%^&*(
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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ProverB
#25 Posted : Monday, November 08, 2010 3:19:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mukiha wrote:
?@#$#@!%^&*((**&^$#$$$$<><><???!@@#@#$%^&*()_+)(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()_)(*&^%$#$%^&*(


Applause Applause Applause

Teheheheheheheh!!! the "probability" of you giving such a response was 0%
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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drake
#26 Posted : Tuesday, November 09, 2010 1:00:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
mukiha wrote:
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!



Wrong!
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YOUNG ECONOMST
#27 Posted : Friday, November 26, 2010 4:41:40 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/11/2010
Posts: 65
Location: NRB
mukiha wrote:
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!


Jesus, if this is the probability we use, have mercy on us.Pray
What i see in this answer is the effect of missing stats class for 15 days in every 20.

"The opportunity of a lifetime must be seized during the lifetime of the opportunity."
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sparkly
#28 Posted : Friday, November 26, 2010 8:31:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
YOUNG ECONOMST wrote:
mukiha wrote:
@ProverB: the answer is simple, really... the possible outcomes are (1) he will miss next lesson, (2) he will not miss next lesson.

There is no other possible outcome!

Therefore, the probability that he will miss the next lesson is 50%!


Jesus, if this is the probability we use, have mercy on us.Pray
What i see in this answer is the effect of missing stats class for 15 days in every 20.

no way the prob of missing the next class will be 50%! If missing classes is random then the prob is of missing next class is 75%. Otherwise he would have missed 10 or thereabouts if prob is 50%.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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