wazua Sun, May 19, 2024
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

2 Pages12>
9yr CBK Kenya Infrastructure Bond
muganda
#1 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 4:18:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,901
So received an email on the latest 9 year government of Kenya infrastructure bond issued by the CBK raising a whopping KShs 31.6 billion.

I had missed the last one and thought this new one would be my first foray into fixed income instruments - lakini sijui...
Any takers for this biggest bond issue ever???


ISSUE(S).......IFB2/2010/9
VALUE DATE.....30/08/2010
SALE PERIOD....06/08/2010 - 24/08/2010

TENOR....9yrs
AMOUNT...31.6 billion
PRICE Par/Discount/Premium

MINIMUM AMOUNT...100,000
COUPON RATE......6.00%


Download the Prospectus on the Infrastructure Bond
Download the Information Booklet

Scooby
#2 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 4:30:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hi muganda,

Am sitting out on this infrastructure bond.

The interest rate is quite low for such a duration. Though compared to the international market esp. in Europe and USA, the rate is high.

So, I won't be surprised if the bond issue is fully subscribed...or even worse, over subscribed. If that's happens, then the market is way overdue for a correction.

That's my view....let me see what the rest have to say.

Cheers
qw25041985
#3 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 4:32:38 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@muganda. Who sent you the email ? Sterling investment bank ? Or who.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
Wa_ithaka
#4 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 7:15:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
6% won't meet the year on year rise in prices of your matharu, ugali or even keroro...

CBK is trying to encourage banks to lend to the wider economy rather than GoK. Can't see it working for the likes of BBK who struggle to make 6% profit per year.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
ProverB
#5 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 7:55:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..would have been nice if interest net of Tax was higher than inflation.. Sad Sad


on a lighter note..yet to get over the fact that i flunked Corporate Finance BBM 327 because my research was "tenability of universities financing capital projects..(such as residential halls) through issuance of bonds/term/commercial paper in the capital markets".smile smile


now it doesn't seem such an untenable proposal..
No wonder lecturers are a broke lot. d'oh!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
bartum
#6 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 10:39:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
ProverB wrote:
..would have been nice if interest net of Tax was higher than inflation.. Sad Sad


on a lighter note..yet to get over the fact that i flunked Corporate Finance BBM 327 because my research was "tenability of universities financing capital projects..(such as residential halls) through issuance of bonds/term/commercial paper in the capital markets".smile smile


now it doesn't seem such an untenable proposal..
No wonder lecturers are a broke lot. d'oh!

but iam not always broke
muganda
#7 Posted : Wednesday, August 18, 2010 1:10:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,901
@ProverB, interesting anecdote. In school, one is meant to learn theory not practice - so you deserved the fail smile

@Scooby @Wa_ithaka, not very attractive I agree, and so HUGE.

Now that Safaricom also want to come back to the market for their second tranche 4.5b (first tranche carried annual coupon of 12.25 percent), they may land in trouble for making the government won fail?

gladiator
#8 Posted : Wednesday, August 18, 2010 2:13:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
Remember that Infrastructure bonds are tax-exempt.

I also expect interest rates to maintain current levels for the next couple of years as CBK seems intent on lowering interests overall especially considering that inflation is now below 4% and it is trying to force banks to reduce their base lending rates.

The IB will also be amortized in the 6th, 7th and 9th year rather than simply just the 9th. In addition, previous IB bonds have been fairly liquid hence it should be easy to sell out early if need be

In my opinion then if you have some money you need to park safely to preserve capital for a while, it is a good investment.
ProverB
#9 Posted : Wednesday, August 18, 2010 2:32:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
bartum wrote:

but iam not always broke

..
an exception to the norm! ..now stocksmaster ought to be a lecturer!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
kyt
#10 Posted : Wednesday, August 18, 2010 3:24:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
at 6 per cent for 9 yrs! That is way low!
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
maka
#11 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 4:53:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
@kyt way low compared to which other investment vehicle,
A 30 year bond in the states is currently yielding a return of 3.72% when we compare this to our longest bond in the market which is the 25 year which is returning a yield of around 9.85% the ROI is good.The problem is if there will be a complete uptake of the bond considering thez bin waning interest in the fixed income side of the capital market.
possunt quia posse videntur
Wa_ithaka
#12 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 5:08:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
It'll get full subscription especially when you factor fund managers internally and externally who like a guaranteed 6%
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
muganda
#13 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 7:52:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,901
Wa_ithaka wrote:
It'll get full subscription especially when you factor fund managers internally and externally who like a guaranteed 6%


Good point; and if I may digress, one wonders how effective fund managers (experts of investments) are if all they do is make such a conservative play when the interest rates are at an all time low.

Which funds do these guys manage? How would one effectively benchmark if a fundmanager is doing stuff when it comes to fixed income instruments? Index...Av coupon rates...TBill rate...d'oh!
Wa_ithaka
#14 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 8:11:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Muganda-benchmark I believe is always risk-free interest rate in our case being t-mbills
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
muganda
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 8:26:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,901
Surely NOW, if this risk free infrastructure bond coupon rate is deemed tooo low by Wazuans, yet it's only at 6%...
Why would anyone in their right mind pay a fund manager, and mark his performance par if he only got 1.999%?

There must be another measure! I saw presentation by NSE where they introduce an animal called Average weighted coupon rate payable on bonds at 10.38% for 30-Jun

Check the presentation page 7 http://www.nse.co.ke/new...BY%20PETER%20MWANGI.pdf

Wa_ithaka
#16 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 10:58:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Muganda- my take is as an investor going into money/income funds, you have to compare fund perfomance with average highest available money market rates over past 1 year at the very least.

Getting this info in our market is another issue altogether
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
selah
#17 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 12:47:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
I have never participated on any bond but I listened some technocrats on NTV yesterday discuss this bond and I got more confused.and this is why.

The previous bond which had a coupon of 12% was trading at a loss since inflation at that time was 14%.

This bond which has a coupon of 6% is trading at a profit because the inflation is below 4%.

Now if you look at those scenarios the guy who bought last years bond is enjoying more returns currently as opposed to those who will buy the one with the 6% coupon.

Another thing that confused me even more why use a borrowing instrument as a tool to bring down inflation,without first arresting those factors that cause inflation to rise.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
guru267
#18 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 1:06:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
Another thing that confused me even more why use a borrowing instrument as a tool to bring down inflation,without first arresting those factors that cause inflation to rise.

@selah you clearly need to read some more on economic theory....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Scubidu
#19 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 2:22:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@selah. To see the factors that influence inflation in Kenya you'll have to look at certain things such as money supply growth, and balance of payments. The governor said that there's no demand pull inflation in the system so focus more on BOP IMHO.

Judging by the results of the 182 t-bill this bond now requires a better premium. The vibrancy of trade especially on the long end has declined, with increasing interest rate risk, so the bond seems a viable option for most fund managers (for its other qualities). As long CBK avails enough liquidity in the system then they can dictate the level of subscription. I think inflation is a none issue so i focus on the spread between cost of funding and bond rates to see the profit.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
wanyuru
#20 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 2:37:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/29/2007
Posts: 948
kyt wrote:
at 6 per cent for 9 yrs! That is way low!


A taxable T bond with 10 years to maturity at the NSE is trading at a Yield of 5.5-5.75%.


i think this particular tax free bond, with 10yr taxable bonds trading at the above yields, is at the right coupon.

And BTW, this bond has an amortization structure of 6 , 7 and 9 years which makes its effective tenor to be 7 Yrs!

Those investing upto 1mn can look at it as a 7 Year bond!

.....Just a thought
Users browsing this topic
Guest
2 Pages12>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2024 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.