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Bamburi SELL, ARM HOLD
sparkly
#1 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 8:22:40 PM
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Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Cfc has predicted increased demand for cement in EA region. Competition will be tight esp from cheaper imports. Local producers faced with capacity constraints and high energy costs. They have given a HOLD recommendation for ARM and SELL for bamburi and EAPC. They say BAM is overvalued and EAPC inefficient. ARM to benefit from clinker plant.
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#2 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 8:58:00 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
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Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Cfc has predicted increased demand for cement in EA region. Competition will be tight esp from cheaper imports. Local producers faced with capacity constraints and high energy costs. They have given a HOLD recommendation for ARM and SELL for bamburi and EAPC. They say BAM is overvalued and EAPC inefficient. ARM to benefit from clinker plant.


@sparkly i agree totally with this analysis... Bamburi cannot match last years results due to the one off capital gains but i'm not sure about EAPC because the stock has a really low P/E and ARM is a perfect cement firm to hold...

As for the energy costs doesnt CFC forsee these falling next year due to reduced usage of thermal power????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sheep
#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 10:43:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
he he he Laughing out loudly quite comical,ati Bamburi OVERVALUED...they dont come better than thisLaughing out loudly

mhhh...Bamburi had a normalised increase in EPS of 21% as compared to 28% increase in ARM.P/E of Bamb is 12.5(without the one off gains),ARM is 18...commonsense stuff!
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
sparkly
#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 1:29:08 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.

Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.

The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.
Life is short. Live passionately.
My 2 cents
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 2:04:53 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,059
@Sparkly the DY for Bamburi adjusted for this year's special Capital Gains on sales of ARM shares is actually lower than 3%(5.5/200). The level of 9 bob per share is unlikely to be replicated next year.
sparkly
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 5:57:06 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
My 2 cents wrote:
@Sparkly the DY for Bamburi adjusted for this year's special Capital Gains on sales of ARM shares is actually lower than 3%(5.5/200). The level of 9 bob per share is unlikely to be replicated next year.

@my 2 cents i agree. The special div is historical and obviously factored into the current price. Our mkt would not be that inefficient. CFC is convinced that only Bamburi will cede mkt share to mombasa cement, cemtech and the cheap imports, while ARM will grab more mkt share. IMO Bamburi has the resources to pull a Safaricom.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 9:02:30 PM
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Location: Nairobi
ARM growing in Tanzania. Bamburi cannot grow in any countries except Kenya & Uganda (Hima Cement) since Bamburi's PARENT (LaFarge) has interests all over the place...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
My 2 cents
#8 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 7:58:45 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,059
Reason why I love this stock is because they are soooo cash rich, almost no debt and costs are tightly controlled. And with all the construction craze right now, there is more than enough business for all the players.
qw25041985
#9 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 4:33:00 AM
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Location: Nai
@sparkly how right u were. I hope those who read ur post held . Not only to see ARM post very nice first half profits but also to sell a considerable share price appreciation !
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
kyt
#10 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 2:36:08 PM
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Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
i still feel BAMB will grow
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
the deal
#11 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 4:02:35 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hasn't this Cement Stocks overheat?
guru267
#12 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 9:58:25 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.

The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.

@sparkly one thing you have to understand is that brokers make their recommendations based on short term... So if they said sell bamburi please sell because the price will start to fall.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sheep
#13 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 2:01:05 PM
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Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
U do understand any small improvement in sales will lead to over 50% profits going foward
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
cnn
#14 Posted : Monday, August 09, 2010 12:23:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,616
ARM half year is up 16%,annualized EPS is at 7.02.So why the recent rise in the share price?
Surealligator
#15 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 1:16:05 PM
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Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 709
Location: Velayat-e Faryab
sparkly wrote:
Cfc has predicted increased demand for cement in EA region. Competition will be tight esp from cheaper imports. Local producers faced with capacity constraints and high energy costs. They have given a HOLD recommendation for ARM and SELL for bamburi and EAPC. They say BAM is overvalued and EAPC inefficient. ARM to benefit from clinker plant.


For the first time, I agree with CFC financials. Look at this

Net profit after tax dropped by 20 per cent to Tsh10.3 billion ($7 million) from Tsh12.8 billion ($ 8.5 million) registered during the corresponding period last year.

This resulted in a drop in earnings per share from Tsh201 ($0.134) to Tsh161 ($0.107).

http://www.theeastafrica...56/-/wuftm/-/index.html
Go overdrive in purchasing the goods when there's blood on the streets, expecially if the blood is your own
sparkly
#16 Posted : Thursday, May 04, 2017 4:23:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sparkly wrote:
ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.

Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.


The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.


TBT. Bad luck for those who sold Bamburi and held ARM.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ebenyo
#17 Posted : Thursday, May 04, 2017 6:53:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
[quote=sparkly][quote=sparkly]ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.

Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.


The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.

.............................................................................................



Bamburi-already matured.No growth potential.
ARM-still struggling to stand up.High potential for growth especially after the cash injection from UK firm,CDC.


Towards the goal of financial freedom
Fyatu
#18 Posted : Thursday, July 06, 2017 12:35:36 PM
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Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Ebenyo wrote:
[quote=sparkly][quote=sparkly]ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.

Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.


The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.

.............................................................................................



Bamburi-already matured.No growth potential.
ARM-still struggling to stand up.High potential for growth especially after the cash injection from UK firm,CDC.




I have done some small research on cement consumption in the various places that duty takes me to. These are my observations:

For home building purposes

Coast:
ARM, Bamburi, Mombasa Cement...note that Mombasa cement has edged out ARM in this market

Lower Eastern
Simba cement , Portland/blue shield, Bamburi

Nairobi
Portland, Bamburi

Central and Rift
Portland, Simba, Bamburi, Rai


For heavy duty cement/ready mix(for Skyscrapper, Storied buildings, Roads, Railways, Ports, Airports)

Coast:

Bamburi, ARM

Lower Eastern
Bamburi

Nairobi
Savannah, Bamburi, ARM

Central and Rift valley
Bamburi


Anyone who can estimate ARM market share? Anyone who has a different opinion on which cement company is dominant where?

Everywhere i go, i see lots of infrastructure coming up. Erstwhile sleepy towns like Voi, Kilifi, Malindi, Embu, Wote, Machakos are now dotted with yellow cranes and ready mix concrete trucks and shacman tippers are all over these places ferrying rubble(hardcore) and cement. From my observation Bamburi is the only visible company. Who is ARM selling their cement to? Why should i invest in ARM and not in Bamburi?
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
sparkly
#19 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2019 12:02:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sparkly wrote:
ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.


Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.

The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.


Let us avoid highly indebted firms. Next on chopping block is KQ.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ericsson
#20 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2019 12:15:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,628
Location: NAIROBI
sparkly wrote:
sparkly wrote:
ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.


Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.

The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.


Let us avoid highly indebted firms. Next on chopping block is KQ.

ARM was a good company with bad management.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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