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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
obiero
#8161 Posted : Monday, July 31, 2017 2:10:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Interesting that there are still buyers at this time

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Pesa Nane
#8162 Posted : Monday, July 31, 2017 4:32:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
obiero
#8163 Posted : Monday, July 31, 2017 5:12:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
On a day like this next week

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#8164 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 6:54:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Look at the kind of business I&M was doing with the Pride of Africa http://www.businessdaily...039986-ibk77b/index.html

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
sparkly
#8165 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 7:02:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
[quote=obiero]Look at the kind of business I&M was doing with the Pride of Africa http://www.businessdaily...39986-ibk77b/index.html[/quote]

@VVS will answer you shortly.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#8166 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 7:02:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
All businesses have challenges, more so in
our aviation industry, which is cyclical in
nature and fraught with many risks.
These include fuel price volatility, intense
competition and more recently the threat
of terrorism and epidemics that have adversely impacted global travel. There is
also political instability, natural disasters
and an increasingly tight regulatory
environment and KQ is not isolated from
any of these. KQ has expanded its global footprint
across multiple jurisdictions flying to 52
destinations. As a global airline, we are
governed by stringent international
aviation rules that we must adhere to. Strong consumer activism in some
markets like the European Union (EU) has
imposed high costs of operations in cases
of schedule interruptions. But it has not always been doom and
gloom. Over the last decade, Kenya
Airways worked hard to successfully shed
the image of an ailing airline dependent
on government lifeline. Since it was privatised in the late 1990s,
the airline grew rapidly, lifted by strong
fundamentals and embracing a culture of
competitiveness and innovation. Before
the current spate of challenges, KQ was
one of the most profitable airlines even earning the ‘Most Respected Company in
East Africa’ accolade. Are we in debt? Yes we are. Is this
normal for airlines? Most certainly. The
question is one of balance for both long
term and short term debt. Long term debt
is the norm for financing asset
acquisition together with equity. In the short term, we are experiencing a tight
liquidity position driven by our business
environment. Were we too ambitious in our plans? Only
time will tell. KQ from 2002 to 2011 grew
from a turnover of Sh25 billion to over
Sh100 billion, in the same period. It only
made a loss in 2009. Against this
backdrop, the Board embarked on a second phase of growth and renewal with
mixed results thus far. Operationally, we have seen significant
improvements over the last two years
both in on time performance and service.
In the last month though, we have had
significant disruptions to our schedule
integrity which has regrettably impacted our loyal customers for two reasons. Firstly, the change of schedule due to the
runway closure and attendant internal
adjustments we have had to make. Secondly, we have had labour relations
issues with some of our pilot community
which in some instances has led to last
minute flight cancellations or delays. So, whereas KQ may today be grappling
with challenges, what is important is that
we stay focused in delivering on the
wider promise. What matters most is the
measures instituted to put the business
on a recovery path and ultimately on a sound footing.

The pilots will kill KQ..
5 days to the EGM

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
chiaroscuro
#8167 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 9:08:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,134
Location: Nairobi
Obiero, Obiero, Obiero: Unless you have kendo - 100M shares in this monkey, you'd best be advised to dump it and move on. But we know that the largest individual shareholder, one Mike Maina Kamau has 41M - is that you?

We've all burned fingers at one time or another - remember Olympia Capital?

No point campaigning for a worthless company. Time to dump and move on!
obiero
#8168 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 9:21:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi

chiaroscuro wrote:
Obiero, Obiero, Obiero: Unless you have kendo - 100M shares in this monkey, you'd best be advised to dump it and move on. But we know that the largest individual shareholder, one Mike Maina Kamau has 41M - is that you?

We've all burned fingers at one time or another - remember Olympia Capital?

No point campaigning for a worthless company. Time to dump and move on!

I'm not Mike bwana. Wacha madharau. I have lost on some trades too. But hii ikianguka naenda nayo kamikaze hadi ndani ya Indian Ocean. Ndaani Ndaani, Ndaani kabisa

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Spikes
#8169 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 9:29:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
obiero wrote:

chiaroscuro wrote:
Obiero, Obiero, Obiero: Unless you have kendo - 100M shares in this monkey, you'd best be advised to dump it and move on. But we know that the largest individual shareholder, one Mike Maina Kamau has 41M - is that you?

We've all burned fingers at one time or another - remember Olympia Capital?

No point campaigning for a worthless company. Time to dump and move on!

I'm not Mike bwana. Wacha madharau. I have lost on some trades too. But hii ikianguka naenda nayo kamikaze hadi ndani ya Indian Ocean. Ndaani Ndaani, Ndaani kabisa

Your portfolio will remain tattered for long-term....Dump and run!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
chiaroscuro
#8170 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 9:32:03 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,134
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:

chiaroscuro wrote:
Obiero, Obiero, Obiero: Unless you have kendo - 100M shares in this monkey, you'd best be advised to dump it and move on. But we know that the largest individual shareholder, one Mike Maina Kamau has 41M - is that you?

We've all burned fingers at one time or another - remember Olympia Capital?

No point campaigning for a worthless company. Time to dump and move on!

I'm not Mike bwana. Wacha madharau. I have lost on some trades too. But hii ikianguka naenda nayo kamikaze hadi ndani ya Indian Ocean. Ndaani Ndaani, Ndaani kabisa



Investing on emotional appeal.

Not wise, my friend.
maka
#8171 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 9:50:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
All businesses have challenges, more so in
our aviation industry, which is cyclical in
nature and fraught with many risks.
These include fuel price volatility, intense
competition and more recently the threat
of terrorism and epidemics that have adversely impacted global travel. There is
also political instability, natural disasters
and an increasingly tight regulatory
environment and KQ is not isolated from
any of these. KQ has expanded its global footprint
across multiple jurisdictions flying to 52
destinations. As a global airline, we are
governed by stringent international
aviation rules that we must adhere to. Strong consumer activism in some
markets like the European Union (EU) has
imposed high costs of operations in cases
of schedule interruptions. But it has not always been doom and
gloom. Over the last decade, Kenya
Airways worked hard to successfully shed
the image of an ailing airline dependent
on government lifeline. Since it was privatised in the late 1990s,
the airline grew rapidly, lifted by strong
fundamentals and embracing a culture of
competitiveness and innovation. Before
the current spate of challenges, KQ was
one of the most profitable airlines even earning the ‘Most Respected Company in
East Africa’ accolade. Are we in debt? Yes we are. Is this
normal for airlines? Most certainly. The
question is one of balance for both long
term and short term debt. Long term debt
is the norm for financing asset
acquisition together with equity. In the short term, we are experiencing a tight
liquidity position driven by our business
environment. Were we too ambitious in our plans? Only
time will tell. KQ from 2002 to 2011 grew
from a turnover of Sh25 billion to over
Sh100 billion, in the same period. It only
made a loss in 2009. Against this
backdrop, the Board embarked on a second phase of growth and renewal with
mixed results thus far. Operationally, we have seen significant
improvements over the last two years
both in on time performance and service.
In the last month though, we have had
significant disruptions to our schedule
integrity which has regrettably impacted our loyal customers for two reasons. Firstly, the change of schedule due to the
runway closure and attendant internal
adjustments we have had to make. Secondly, we have had labour relations
issues with some of our pilot community
which in some instances has led to last
minute flight cancellations or delays. So, whereas KQ may today be grappling
with challenges, what is important is that
we stay focused in delivering on the
wider promise. What matters most is the
measures instituted to put the business
on a recovery path and ultimately on a sound footing.

The pilots will kill KQ..
5 days to the EGM


This matter should be sorted out once and for all if not the pilots will do it again and again...The interesting bit is its just a section of them others reported to work as normal and others did extra hours...It's a clique.
possunt quia posse videntur
VituVingiSana
#8172 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 9:52:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
[quote=obiero] Look at the kind of business I&M was doing with the Pride of Africa http://www.businessdaily...39986-ibk77b/index.html[/quote]
Very disappointing move by I&M.
Why lend to a useless firm run by incompetent crooks, charlatans and incompetents in the first place?
And then charge below-market rates? [I hope they fired the idiots who made this loan]
The only saving grace is the amount lent i.e. 824mn is small change for I&M i.e. they can NPL/provide the entire amount in one quarter.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#8173 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 10:12:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=obiero] Look at the kind of business I&M was doing with the Pride of Africa http://www.businessdaily...39986-ibk77b/index.html[/quote]
Very disappointing move by I&M.
Why lend to a useless firm run by incompetent crooks, charlatans and incompetents in the first place?
And then charge below-market rates? [I hope they fired the idiots who made this loan]
The only saving grace is the amount lent i.e. 824mn is small change for I&M i.e. they can NPL/provide the entire amount in one quarter.

Not with the recent purchase of Giro.. Hawa watu hawana pesa na pia akili ni nadra

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Flo-ology
#8174 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 10:18:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/17/2016
Posts: 225
maka wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
All businesses have challenges, more so in
our aviation industry, which is cyclical in
nature and fraught with many risks.
These include fuel price volatility, intense
competition and more recently the threat
of terrorism and epidemics that have adversely impacted global travel. There is
also political instability, natural disasters
and an increasingly tight regulatory
environment and KQ is not isolated from
any of these. KQ has expanded its global footprint
across multiple jurisdictions flying to 52
destinations. As a global airline, we are
governed by stringent international
aviation rules that we must adhere to. Strong consumer activism in some
markets like the European Union (EU) has
imposed high costs of operations in cases
of schedule interruptions. But it has not always been doom and
gloom. Over the last decade, Kenya
Airways worked hard to successfully shed
the image of an ailing airline dependent
on government lifeline. Since it was privatised in the late 1990s,
the airline grew rapidly, lifted by strong
fundamentals and embracing a culture of
competitiveness and innovation. Before
the current spate of challenges, KQ was
one of the most profitable airlines even earning the ‘Most Respected Company in
East Africa’ accolade. Are we in debt? Yes we are. Is this
normal for airlines? Most certainly. The
question is one of balance for both long
term and short term debt. Long term debt
is the norm for financing asset
acquisition together with equity. In the short term, we are experiencing a tight
liquidity position driven by our business
environment. Were we too ambitious in our plans? Only
time will tell. KQ from 2002 to 2011 grew
from a turnover of Sh25 billion to over
Sh100 billion, in the same period. It only
made a loss in 2009. Against this
backdrop, the Board embarked on a second phase of growth and renewal with
mixed results thus far. Operationally, we have seen significant
improvements over the last two years
both in on time performance and service.
In the last month though, we have had
significant disruptions to our schedule
integrity which has regrettably impacted our loyal customers for two reasons. Firstly, the change of schedule due to the
runway closure and attendant internal
adjustments we have had to make. Secondly, we have had labour relations
issues with some of our pilot community
which in some instances has led to last
minute flight cancellations or delays. So, whereas KQ may today be grappling
with challenges, what is important is that
we stay focused in delivering on the
wider promise. What matters most is the
measures instituted to put the business
on a recovery path and ultimately on a sound footing.

The pilots will kill KQ..
5 days to the EGM


This matter should be sorted out once and for all if not the pilots will do it again and again...The interedting bit is just a section of them others reported to work as normal and others did extra hours...It's a clique.


Why can't they fire them, ground the airline for let's say 1 month and hire afresh
Reflection Eternal
obiero
#8175 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 10:43:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Flo-ology wrote:
maka wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
All businesses have challenges, more so in
our aviation industry, which is cyclical in
nature and fraught with many risks.
These include fuel price volatility, intense
competition and more recently the threat
of terrorism and epidemics that have adversely impacted global travel. There is
also political instability, natural disasters
and an increasingly tight regulatory
environment and KQ is not isolated from
any of these. KQ has expanded its global footprint
across multiple jurisdictions flying to 52
destinations. As a global airline, we are
governed by stringent international
aviation rules that we must adhere to. Strong consumer activism in some
markets like the European Union (EU) has
imposed high costs of operations in cases
of schedule interruptions. But it has not always been doom and
gloom. Over the last decade, Kenya
Airways worked hard to successfully shed
the image of an ailing airline dependent
on government lifeline. Since it was privatised in the late 1990s,
the airline grew rapidly, lifted by strong
fundamentals and embracing a culture of
competitiveness and innovation. Before
the current spate of challenges, KQ was
one of the most profitable airlines even earning the ‘Most Respected Company in
East Africa’ accolade. Are we in debt? Yes we are. Is this
normal for airlines? Most certainly. The
question is one of balance for both long
term and short term debt. Long term debt
is the norm for financing asset
acquisition together with equity. In the short term, we are experiencing a tight
liquidity position driven by our business
environment. Were we too ambitious in our plans? Only
time will tell. KQ from 2002 to 2011 grew
from a turnover of Sh25 billion to over
Sh100 billion, in the same period. It only
made a loss in 2009. Against this
backdrop, the Board embarked on a second phase of growth and renewal with
mixed results thus far. Operationally, we have seen significant
improvements over the last two years
both in on time performance and service.
In the last month though, we have had
significant disruptions to our schedule
integrity which has regrettably impacted our loyal customers for two reasons. Firstly, the change of schedule due to the
runway closure and attendant internal
adjustments we have had to make. Secondly, we have had labour relations
issues with some of our pilot community
which in some instances has led to last
minute flight cancellations or delays. So, whereas KQ may today be grappling
with challenges, what is important is that
we stay focused in delivering on the
wider promise. What matters most is the
measures instituted to put the business
on a recovery path and ultimately on a sound footing.

The pilots will kill KQ..
5 days to the EGM


This matter should be sorted out once and for all if not the pilots will do it again and again...The interedting bit is just a section of them others reported to work as normal and others did extra hours...It's a clique.


Why can't they fire them, ground the airline for let's say 1 month and hire afresh

Indeed. They could also be paid pro rated salary per trip. So, no shows without due cause leads to personal income loss

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#8176 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 10:57:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=obiero] Look at the kind of business I&M was doing with the Pride of Africa http://www.businessdaily...39986-ibk77b/index.html[/quote]
Very disappointing move by I&M.
Why lend to a useless firm run by incompetent crooks, charlatans and incompetents in the first place?
And then charge below-market rates? [I hope they fired the idiots who made this loan]
The only saving grace is the amount lent i.e. 824mn is small change for I&M i.e. they can NPL/provide the entire amount in one quarter.

Not with the recent purchase of Giro.. Hawa watu hawana pesa na pia akili ni nadra

I&M will be fine coz 824mn is small change. The loan to KQ ($ loan?) is already a dud and if not taken as a NPL, has to be taken by 4Q 2017 whether it is converted into shares or not.

I&M did overpay for Giro considering the diminution in value (of banks) after the interest capping but the deal was signed 2 years ago.

As for KQ, the banks may be forced, by GoK, to convert the loans into shares. I wonder what CBK will do as far as the NPLs are concerned.

Anyway, if I had to choose between I&M and KQ at today's prices and knowing what we do... I will pick I&M coz there's more certainty about profitability and value.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#8177 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 12:10:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
chiaroscuro wrote:
obiero wrote:

chiaroscuro wrote:
Obiero, Obiero, Obiero: Unless you have kendo - 100M shares in this monkey, you'd best be advised to dump it and move on. But we know that the largest individual shareholder, one Mike Maina Kamau has 41M - is that you?

We've all burned fingers at one time or another - remember Olympia Capital?

No point campaigning for a worthless company. Time to dump and move on!

I'm not Mike bwana. Wacha madharau. I have lost on some trades too. But hii ikianguka naenda nayo kamikaze hadi ndani ya Indian Ocean. Ndaani Ndaani, Ndaani kabisa



Investing on emotional appeal.

Not wise, my friend.


@Chiroscuro don't waste your time. @Obiero knows what is best for himself.
Life is short. Live passionately.
actuarywahisa
#8178 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 12:22:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/21/2014
Posts: 184
Cat falling to the ground at a very fast speed.
There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
VituVingiSana
#8179 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 1:32:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
As a "fundamental" investor, I do not understand why anyone would buy KQ shares at 4/- when the indications are that KQ will issue shares to the banks/GoK at around 2/-.

What justifies the 2/-? At a 10 PER, KQ has to make KES 0.20 per share whereas (even with all the drama) many banks are selling at less than 10x PER when times are tough. By 2018, (most of the listed) banks will have "clean books" by taking the NPLs in 2017, adjusted to interest capping and increased their mobile (cheaper) banking footprint.

I have no interest in KQ but 1) as a Taxpayer [shafting in progress] and 2) fascination with human/investor behavior.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#8180 Posted : Tuesday, August 01, 2017 1:53:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
As a "fundamental" investor, I do not understand why anyone would buy KQ shares at 4/- when the indications are that KQ will issue shares to the banks/GoK at around 2/-.

What justifies the 2/-? At a 10 PER, KQ has to make KES 0.20 per share whereas (even with all the drama) many banks are selling at less than 10x PER when times are tough. By 2018, (most of the listed) banks will have "clean books" by taking the NPLs in 2017, adjusted to interest capping and increased their mobile (cheaper) banking footprint.

I have no interest in KQ but 1) as a Taxpayer [shafting in progress] and 2) fascination with human/investor behavior.

The KES 2 is pre consolidation..
Expect a rally soon. Though I am also fascinated by the guys who are buying now. Very brave investors

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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