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Kenya V/s US
selah
#1 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 7:22:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
can we say that our finacial regulatory frame work is one of the best in the world.

The level of stupid risks undertaken by US banks leading to majority control by The US government That advocates for a liberalised market Shows that kenya learnt its lesson in the 90s given that no kenyan bank has collapsed from the heat.

Whats the difference btwn China And US If The US govt Protects its Companies whenever they face difficulties.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 11:10:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Totally nonsense... The causes for the collapse of banks in the USA is not that clear-cut i.e. 'liberalisation'...

You need to read much more before making such general statements...

I could provide more info but do your own reading (from multiple sources) and you will see the interference by the USA government in CMBS through Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac caused a lot of the problems.

Another statistic to look at is the LOW inflation in USA made it harder for banks to hide bad decisions while in Kenya the high inflation (say they made a bad real estate loan) caused the 'loss' to be diminished in nominal terms...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
bird_man
#3 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 1:15:11 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
VVS.....but what would have happened if the US Treasury & Congress didn't intervene in the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac case? I think it was a choice based on two opposing forces/fears......"systemic risk" and "moral hazard"....they were damned all round, whether they intervened or didn't. They had been throwing lots n lots of trash (gambles & bets) under the wall street carpet...it has to come out one day!
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
guru267
#4 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 2:20:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS what @selah is saying is right... since the financial crisis happened the europeans and americans have been lauding african (not only kenyan) regulators left right and centre for there conservative approach to banking...

but i dont agree with @selah on the comparison between china and america because a "bail out" is not the same as "govt control and ownership" though similar...

americas situation is temporary where the govts involvement was to prevent armagedon from taking place whereas china's is permanent... the US govt already has plans in place to exit citigroup and the likes this year....

giving kenya as an example.. what would have become of KPLC, NBK, HFCK if GOK had not stepped in.. but now its taking a step back from some of these...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
slykat
#5 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 4:44:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
I think the parallels being drawn between kenya's and usa banks are based on the false assumption that banking means the same thing in africa as in the west....it doesn't! but if it does, then sela n guru r spot on to the extent that our banks are conservatively regulated.

Still, there is no real comparison between kenya's and the west's banking-financial systems.

A guy who grows sukuma and sells to the lorry-owner, who in turn delivers to marigiti where mama mboga buys n then sells to you and me is a model of biz that is very unlikely to cause financial probs. Our banking is like that, almost like simple trading in money. Not so much by choice rather coz we r always behind those we imitate!

Now, add abstractions like speculation in commodities, futures, derivatives and debt swaps, n the sale of sub-prime mortgages based on our sukuma wiki model and ur risk increases 1000fold!

Now let the banks be the main speculators, and the main lenders to other speculators, as well as the main buyers of speculators' "abstract" trades in sukuma wiki biz and u get the whole economy at the mercy of the innocent sweet sukuma wiki musical chairs, at some point the rapid movement of trades and debts has to stop somewhere... unfortunately, with the govt or the economy crashes down to simple sukuma wiki trade, where it all started.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 4:57:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
bird_man wrote:
VVS.....but what would have happened if the US Treasury & Congress didn't intervene in the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac case? I think it was a choice based on two opposing forces/fears......"systemic risk" and "moral hazard"....they were damned all round, whether they intervened or didn't. They had been throwing lots n lots of trash (gambles & bets) under the wall street carpet...it has to come out one day!

No, no, no... I am NOT talking of the bailout!!!

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac were given a sheen of 'credibility' by an implicit guarantee by Congress. Also the regulators hands were tied by the same Congress. Created the perfect soup for Moral Hazard. Warren Buffet warned about the FMs long ago... lakini the politicians were too thick (greedy/corrupt) to listen to him...

In Kenya, we saw that with KACC which is told investigate but NOT allowed to prosecute. In essence a toothless bulldog...

As for the whole systemic risk... IMHO, that would have separated the wheat from the chaff... The US$ & USA will suffer for that in years to come...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 5:06:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:

giving kenya as an example.. what would have become of KPLC, NBK, HFCK if GOK had not stepped in.. but now its taking a step back from some of these...


I disagree, disagree, disagree... The same GoK that created the mess is being lauded as a saviour? The same (or different) idiotic bureaucrats were at play!

KPLC - In years past, KPLC was under the thumb of politicians & cronies. samuel gichuru was more interested in political ralies than running the firm. You do not see Njoroge at political rallies!

GoK gave KPLC a raw deal in the past. Controlled OUTPUT prices (supply at fixed prices) while INPUT costs (forex, thermal/oil, salaries, copper cables) was all variable.

NBK - Puhleeze... the only loans it made were political. Every politician from moi to a crony like pattni 'borrowed' from NBK. This stopped only after 2002 when Marambii was made MD.

HFCK - I do not recall a government bailout. The recovery/foreclosure process in Kenya is 5 years unlike the USA where it is much shorter. Please provide more details as to the bailout. At most, CBK didn't put them into receivership considering the high bad debts. There was a major Rights Issue.

You can't say liberalisation has failed when you tie the hands of the same banks/firms!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 5:14:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@slykat - The comparisons between US money center banks & Kenya banks are not valid. Very different models.

What folks do NOT realise is that the 'restrictions' on Kenya banks also caused high inflation & low economic growth.

Let's also distinguish between banking & financing systems... In Kenya shylocks are financiers... lakini no stats on them or their customers...

I will argue that for ALL the faults of the US banking/financial system (including tying the regulators hands)... the growth in the USA economy since the 1990s has been PHENOMENAL compared to Kenya.

Or to put it another way... How much better off is the average Kenyan in 2010 vs 1990 (versus the average American)?

Folks also forget the average American is a spendthrift... not so (yet) the average Kenyan...

I remember Kenyans were proud to own 504/Toyota/Datsun pickups, the yuppie now buys the (economic deadbeat) BMW, merc, etc...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
slykat
#9 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 5:28:27 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
@VVS
We have a meeting of minds on this interesting discussion.

What folks do NOT realise is that the 'restrictions' on Kenya banks also caused high inflation & low economic growth.

What I failed to say, is the obvious maxim, the higher the risks, the higher the returns! U r spot on, the more conservative u r the lower the risk but logically, also the lower the gains... That was an important cog u introduced.
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Sunday, April 18, 2010 12:42:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@slykat - Whereas I do not agree with the level of bailouts... this was a political decision not economic decision...

As for Kenya, the banks charge high interest rates since the recovery process for banks (from defaulters) is horrendously long, hard & expensive...

Mortgage rates in Kenya are 15%+ (the so-called regulators in Kenya have not introduced the APR concept which shows the real rate is even higher than advertised) vs 6% in the USA...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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