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Realities of Forex Investment
Xnjambi
#81 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 4:45:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/10/2008
Posts: 9
@Kilabe,

Sasa you are calling me a stooge? I juad you'd come after me anyway.

Does not change the fact that you are a greedy punk. You got what you deserved. May you lose another $4,000 you greedy punk. Happy when things are good alafu when things turn unawika. You are the con yourself. Conning yourself ati &quot;Dont worry Kilabe,everything we'll be just fine. Let me just close my eyes and I'll get back my deposit. Let me sign this contract to make the upperhill guys think that it's a civil matter. Lakini if they mess me up I'll go screaming on stockskenya halafu I'll call cops. Ati courts of law - ah,too expensive. I'll wika and then I'll hide the contracts. Because we are in the aftermath of pyramid schemes,si everyone will believe me? Ama?&quot;

Conman Kilabe. You guys beware of this conman amongst us. His victim is himself. Greedy punk.

I need no inspiration to make money
tonicasert
#82 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 4:54:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
@Xnjambi,

Well,I try not getting pulled to exchanges. I guess most of these guys are legit,just that they have had bad months. So its important to educate the clients that you can have good months as well as bad months. however,pyramid schemes use the name of forex trading to sell their schemes. These are the people we need to root out. I dont use these agents but I met the proprietors Leader Investments when they were opening their offices(I guess the &quot;upper hill guys&quot;),located opposite upper hill springs. Very sharp guys,have traded most markets in india,dubai and states. I just didnt have confidence in the way they we training fresh guys,and letting them trade client's money. Mainly they're concentrating on growing their business and marketing,so always travelling in the region. But that's my feel,but I think they're legit. I met also one of the new recruit traders,and he was ok - but am neither advocating for them nor pitching for them. I always beleive in trading your own money.

@Mohochi - and all

Maybe we should start sharing our FX experiences to others so that they may learn and grow an interest.

@Stephen Alala

Thats an interesting system and kudos. however with all due respect I have my reservations. I dont think arbitrage trading (buying and selling in the same market,and making profit due to lack of info among the traders,or some sort of price distortion) is possible in FX,since what am seeing here is what ur seeing there in Kenya,and someone in Tokyo,NY,Ldn or Geneva. I've only seen it,and at times traded arbitrage during times of data release,like NFP,where the price on a feed is different from another source (like EBS quoted in South Africa) by even upto 50-70 pips. But this is very momentarily for like 2-3 minutes.

EURUSD and USDCHF have a very strong correlation (between -0.8 and -1). If you plot the 2 graphs together,one is an exact mirror of the other. However,the correlation deviates when safe-haven opportunities present themselves in the market,eg during times of geo-political tensions (eg Iraq-US,Russia-Georgia),when CHF and Gold gain at a much faster pace than other majors against the USD due to their nature as safe-haven currencies/hedges.

So it seems your system takes advantage of such deviation moments. Not sure how many times it happes,but good job and all the best.

Personally I dont use systems,and depend on traditional graphs and fundamentals.

On a trading note: Missed that nice rally on EURUSD. Was toying with long idea in the morning,got busy.
Passyson
#83 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 5:02:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
Go long on EUR/USD..expect some resistance in the 1.5080s...so far 500 pips gained if you traded from Tokyo session.

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
Xnjambi
#84 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 5:05:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/10/2008
Posts: 9
@Kilabe,

See my previous post.

@Toni

Thanks for the balanced outlook. I encourage such fairness. Not recommending,not defaming,but giving facts and balanced opinions.

@All

You see - guys have good months and bad months. All you need to do is sit down with you trader and work out a way to recover funds by renegotiating the contract.

If a trader makes a bad trade on your account,that does not make him a con.

@StephenAlala and Tonicasert

I've checked out the system on www.forexkenya.com/eds.htm too. You might want to experiment Toni. There is variation. Just take a long on EURUSD and a long on USDCHF on a demo at the same time and watch. I also have my reservations but I'm risking it. Looks mathematically sound.

Alala - how many lots per USD 1,000?

I need no inspiration to make money
kilabe
#85 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 5:12:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/18/2008
Posts: 53
@xnjmabi
Damn i did not notice a scam protector is existing around if SK .Calling guys who have been taken advantage of as conning themselves.That pretty bulls*** to comeout of your mouth while guys out there are misinformed and they still exist.And you with loud mouth coming to defend and say a lot of nonsense,you could have been chopped off your head by people by defending thieves.Am sick of a person like you instead of saying right information tobe given you are just saying contracts and bulls*** scrap.What if people dont knwo or they are given scanty information. A protector of thieves!!!!
AS i said forex is good but beware of this scam protector!!!

HARD WORK,HARD WORK HARD WORK
Xnjambi
#86 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 5:22:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/10/2008
Posts: 9
@KIlabe,

Let me be the bigger woman and calm things down.

I know guys are taken advantage of and I agitate for their cause. Here,I am talking ABOUT YOU. No one else. Everybody else is using the civil courts,but you decided to defame the &quot;Upperhill guys&quot;,Mint Capital and Andrew Njoroge on stockskenya.

So my issue is with YOU.

But - to calm things down - please explain exactly how YOU were taken advantage of. Our focus is YOU. Stop bunching yourselves with those who do not know better. We are talking of YOU who knows enough about the internet to blog,who can afford $4,000,who can speak good english.

Explain to us exactly how the guys in upperhill conned you. And then you can go on to say EXACTLY how Mint Capital,Royal Fortune and Andrew Njoroge conned you. Step by step. Allow guys to ask questions.

And let's keep it cool. No insults. No anger. Sawa?

I need no inspiration to make money
NGAATU
#87 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 6:17:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
Regarding efficiency of arbitrage it will all depend on the person,but its a good risk-minimizing technique but that does not underlie that using other techniques are not efficient enough.

Arbitrage is a somehow a good risk-low strategy that allows an investor/trader to act fast on opportunities presented by the price inefficiencies on currency pairs.It comes after an trader notices strong correlations on the currency pairs,which means going against each other in most times. There is correlation effect as with EUR/USD and USD/CHF which mostly goes against.Its a correlation effect which have tracked and tested for some time by a trader and mathematically using arbitrage calculators to attest the correlations as they are simple than manually. I can say its all about finding strong correlations.Like in EUR/USD USD/CHF there is a strong near perfect negative correlation of -98% which means that if the first pair is making a move upward chances are that the opposite will be made on the second pair.
Other currencies have also positive correlations like the AUD/USD NZD/USD most of the time has positive correlations and other pairs too.

Example EUR/USD,EUR/GBP,GBP/USD pairs are 1.1837,0.7231,and 1.6388 respectively. In this case,a forex trader could buy one mini-lot of EUR for $11,837 USD. The trader could then sell the 10,000 Euros,for 7,231 British pounds. The 7,231 GBP,could then be sold for $11,850 USD,for a profit of $13 per trade,with no open exposure as long positions cancel short positions in each currency. The same trade using normal lots of 100K,would yield a profit of $130.

One good thing is that it minimize losses and acts as a hedge.
In an instance that you take a short position with EUR/USD 100k units and short position USD/CHF 100k units and the EUR/USD increases by 10 pips a person may end up making $100 loss on first pair but(taking into account the exchange rate) the USD/CHF will make a profit of $84.You will have minimized losses to around $16.Depending on the strong movements of the pairs which may inhibit your profits also.But in the worst case scenarios it minimizes your losses at times.Taking long and short position helps a person to even double up the profits and even diversify advantage.
-It also discourages repeating taking positions that cancel each other and save time.It also corrects itself on the errors done at times.

But this does not mean its a perfect,as @tonicasert said there are also pitfalls which ae very influential.Arbitrage trading requires real time pricing quotes to take advantage of very fast taking into account the different time zones.

- Correlations strengths also are not constant with time though they depend on how strong they are.Most correlations change with time as economic events change the strength of correlations and at most times have an effect of shifting trends.The effect of shifting trends are very serious in the pairs and a person needs to have information and updates,its not a comfortable zone as when the shifting trends occur they will only end up reducing your profits without even you knowing as you will think it will correct itself.You need to have information!!

For a person who have tested it and feels comfortable then its good,congrats @alala. This does not mean that using technicals and fundamentals are still inefficient and as @tonicasert said usage of techniques best at the person is also the best.I do believe that developing techniques with fundamentals and technicals and others wont make you spend a lot time and make mistakes,it largely depends on the effectives of the trader on the techniques.

Its good we are sharing good information.Whats up@tonicasert!




@NGAATU
StephenAlala
#88 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 6:38:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
@Ngaatu,Toni Casert and XNjambi

Now,if I may tease your minds further - You see the risk that Ngaatu brought out? That the correlation might one day fail?

What could the mathematical solution be? Well,what if you did this:

As soon as you opened a long on EURUSD and a long on USDCHF,you also opened a short on EURUSD and a short on USDCHF. You treat the longs as a contiguous pair and the shorts as a contiguous pair. If either pair hits your profit target (say 30 pips e.g. +245 and -215),you close the pair.

You would re-open the profitable pair or add onto it as the price spectrum reverses.

This way,even if the correlation &quot;breaks down&quot; which actually just means that either your shorts or your longs are making MAD CASH,you still make money and your equity is hardly moving. Once you book your MAD CASH,you reenter at a predetermined time to take advantage of a further correlation &quot;break down&quot; or a reversal. After the &quot;breakdown&quot; your equity should experience the most wonderful leap as you gradually re-enter your winning pairs (they will now be losing pairs as the price spectrum reverses).

For a successful implementation of this lower risk EDS arbitrage where you mathematically protect yourself from a &quot;breakdown&quot; can be found on http://www.forexkenya.com/pages/eds_detail.htm

Looking forward to your comments. I hope everybody else is following.
Passyson
#89 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 6:39:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
Incase there is someone still long on the EUR/USD pair,it would be advisable to TP now. The big range evident in the open today makes this pair open to all sorts of movement in the NY session. I would suggest closing any open position and re-entering the pair when the NY session gives it a definite movement.

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
NGAATU
#90 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 6:42:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
@xnjambi and @kilabe please can you refrain from insults here,i beg you.
Its true that guys have been taken off due to lack of information and ignorance and maybe others are contuniung to take advantage of.I have also gone to some guys and felt pity on the trainees and how they tell investors.We should not name names,but @kilabe we are working hard to put some order through a kind of good regulation to protect more others in future.Sorry for your demise,i understand there are also many out there like yo. @xnjambi i do recognise your effort to put facts across but plz try to feel the guys who are being taken advantage everyday and we all know them but we can not mention names.But dont hurl insults here its an education forum and anyone who has been duped should not hestitate to submit his cries out here,we will all help.

@tonicasert,i think i have found one fellow experienced conservative(using the techniques rather than systems) like myself in forex trading.

@passyson skills and information and skills cannot be learnt through net,its only overview.Using demo account then throw yourself is not enough

@NGAATU
Passyson
#91 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 6:52:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
@NGAATU...with all due respect,the net has bridged alot of in terms of education. Going on a demo account for at least 4 months will greatly provide one with the necessary skills and information on forex trading. Fleecing people in the name of giving them classes on forex trading is one path i do not encourage.

I went through babypips.com before i started trading. That is where i received my education on forex trading. Coupled with a demo account for 5 months,i was able to start earning a living in forex trading. If i can do that,what makes other minds of inferior quality that i have to TEACH them forex trading @ ridiculous fees?

Anyone wanting to learn about the forex market can do so absolutely free at www.babypips.com...if someone feels that they need to complement that knowledge,they can always visit one of the so called forex colleges but at least they will be doing so as a matter of informed choice.




Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
NGAATU
#92 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 6:59:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
@ alala
That good explanation regarding the way to cushion the risk of breaking down.But as you said with your example of taking the long postions,with an effect to (+245,-215)you will have safeguarded yourself with a small thing which will give you an adavntage in the next postion(i think i am explaining correct).The thing is the strenghth of the correlations,how does it do if the strenght of the USD/CHF is strong than the rallying of EUR/USD!obvious there will be difference in your profits.Though you wont experience big losses or loss you may still experience small profits at that instance. So during normal timings you may end up reaping profits but varies also.

@NGAATU
StephenAlala
#93 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 7:01:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Ngaatu and Toni,

Me I am a serious believer in having a trading plan. A system is just having a trading plan and sticking to it. You can do this manually or in automation.

This maneno of someone having experience and skill in FX is true but the risks are just too high. At least for me. My personal feel is that I would never let anybody trade my account on a discretionary basis. But that is just me. And I encourage everybody else to be more adventurous.

I've met over 400 experts in FX who profess their experience.

Ebu just ask them to show you their account statements! Heh,it is like asking them to sell you their mother!

If you persist and threaten and the finally do see these statements,you just collapse out of sheer shock and have some crazy seizure.

Whenever someone says he is an expert,ALWAYS ASK FOR THE ACCOUNT STATEMENT. Every time. Without fail.

So for me,with all possible respect to professional FX traders,my money stays with a clear pre-explained mathematical system of trading. I know exactly why and when a trade is being taken because the math says so.

As Xnjambi says - ikienda mbaya,I know why and we can examine the mathematics again in a very open fashion. Once that is done,we rectify.

Low stress. I do not need to trust someone's experience. Especially someone who is mortal,can get sick,can get mad,can get bored,can get excited,can change careers,can quit trading and not transfer his skills.

FX is risky enough. I cannot risk more on someone's discretion - especially my own.
StephenAlala
#94 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 7:06:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
@Ngaatu

I do not understand this question,please rephrase so that I can answer properly:

Ngaatu wrote: &quot;The thing is the strenghth of the correlations,how does it do if the strenght of the USD/CHF is strong than the rallying of EUR/USD!obvious there will be difference in your profits.Though you wont experience big losses or loss you may still experience small profits at that instance. So during normal timings you may end up reaping profits but varies also.&quot;
tonicasert
#95 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 7:31:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Its true one can learn alot from the net (my techs I learnt from the net),but it may take a while for someone to fully grasp everything. But if someone has alot of interest,and dedication,one can make it. But the college fees that you save,you MAY endup paying some of it to the market by way of learning mistakes. But this is allowed. Or one may go to college and learn in a short while,but still have to learn (practice) abit on their own before hitting it live. Take 3-5 months of demo practice.

But the best teachers would be experience and learning from others.

We can start by posting afew lessons/tricks here for the newbies (am not saying am experienced)
Passyson
#96 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 9:05:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
Seems like another round of EUR/USD selling on NY session...A stong trend is forming on the ADX on the hourly chart. 30 pips so far.

Lousy data off Canada but Oil should drive the USD/CAD pair. So far USD positive





Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
tonicasert
#97 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 9:21:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Seems the EURUSD bus is back again. I think I will climb it for 40-50pips.
Passyson
#98 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 9:33:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
@Tony

1.5080s resistance still remains...if it knocks it off,a break away should follow...that will be my cue.

Until then i will still short the pair

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
StephenAlala
#99 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 9:34:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
The EDS has just booked for me 398 pips in profit today. Happy fundamental trading fellaz.
Passyson
#100 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2008 9:41:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 97
I think,various systems work different ways for different individuals...did 500pips on EUR/USD pair from Tokyo session and i should do some more pips on it again in the NY session...

I always suggest one should come up with their own trading strategy. Tailor make it if you can.


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination
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