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Realities of Forex Investment
StephenAlala
#21 Posted : Thursday, July 31, 2008 1:36:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
I cannot express how happy I am that we are finally discussing these matters openly.

As this is indeed a rare opportunity,I'll be as direct as possible. So I'll state your question then I'll answer it.

QUESTION A: Thanks Mr. Alala for your audience,but i'd like you to just give us a percentage of the number of people who have lost money in your organisation due to your misleading information.
ANSWER: The answer is zero. How is this? you ask: No single person deposits any money with my organisation. Genius Forex has never accepted a single shilling as investment as this is against section 3 of the Banking Act of Kenya. If you have any information to the contrary please publish it here with specific details.

If your question is how many people have lost money in FX,the answer is every single FX trader in the world has had numerous losing trades. Ngaatu and Tonicasert can testify to this. There is no single FX trader in the world who has never had a losing trade.

Now,if you are asking how many people have lost money because of our information,the answer is zero. We have never advised people to take any particular trade. That is not our business. Our business is (a) introducing people to forex (b) training them in FX (c) building free automated trading software (see advert on the top of this webpage)and (d) Managing FX accounts. We never offer advise on when to buy and when to sell.

QUESTION B: How many people you have trained and are making money real cash at the moment.
ANSWER: I got permission from several clients who are making cash at the moment. Please do not hesitate to contact the following at will but please do not abuse their email addresses:

Jackie Owino (jackyowino at gmail dot com),Joseph Nyakundi (joenyakundi at yahoo dot com),Stephen Munyao (munyao at merchantcapital dot com),Joseph Yego (alliedfx at gmail dot com),Alex Kulubi (kulubialex at yahoo dot co dot uk),Philip Onkware (forexponkware at yahoo dot com),Henry Kamau (kamauhenry at gmail dot com,Emily Oruo (eoruo at yahoo dot com), Luke Gatimu (no permission for email) and Moses Mukari Tapataiya (mosesmukari08 at yahoo dot com).

Over and above these ten,I can provide you with hundreds more privately if you visit my office on View Park Towers 15th Floor,Utalii Lane,Nairobi Kenya .


QUESTION C: The reason am asking is because i meet people everyday who trade forex and try and find out where they learnt it from and guess what,most say that they passed through your organisation and well they got nothing from it &quot;no offense&quot; so they had to be trained by another person and thats why they are profitable.
ANSWER: Conceded,I cannot claim that all my trainees are making cash. But I can claim that of any FX training institution in Kenya,our trainees are the most successful. Do not just believe me. With your permission I would like to post 50 trading account statements online for all to see from former trainees. Is there any other trainer in Kenya can match this invitation - ask your trainees to post their trading account statements online? With your permission I will do it. For a start visit Joseph Yego's on http://www.forexkenya.com/pages/eds_detail.htm where he implemented our patented eds trading system.


QUESTION D: Secondly,i've seen where you deposit clients money,you have two specific brokers one is GAIN Capital and the AVA FX. i have just one question which body regulates this two brokers so that in the case your clients money disappears,you can report this issue.
ANSWER: First,I do not deposit clients money. I never touch the clients money. Clients are the only people with access to their money. They are the ones who deposit the money with the broker. At no time does Genius touch that money.

Well,we are introducing brokers with GAIN Capital,AVA Financial and,most recently,FXCM contracted us to be their top Referring Broker (which means they provide us with operational and marketing support). GAIN and FXCM are regulated by the National Futures Association and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and AVA is regulated the Financial Services Authority in UK,the Cyprus Securities Exchange Commission and the German Financial Supervisory Authority in Germany.

QUESTION E: Do you your clients also know the leverage used in each account and how it affects they investment. I just see you charging clients for a service you not informed about.
ANSWER: Yes,clients always do know the leverage used in each account and how it affects their investment. Please specify what service is this you say we charge for?

I hope my response is at least informative if not convincing. Please do not hesitate to ask for more information.

And thank you very much for coming out like this.
good fella
#22 Posted : Thursday, July 31, 2008 11:28:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2008
Posts: 6


The insight by all esp. ngaatu was impressive. Im looking at the ad at the top of the SK home page. a few weeks ago i would have jumped into that wagon without thinking. Now..altho not disputing,i would be very careful.

At leat one thing this thread taught me is when someone is promising you heaven,tread carefully.


The only time u start from the top... is when your digging a hole
Abagastinus
#23 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2008 12:49:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/11/2008
Posts: 1
very insightful. i would however not do business with you given the chance coz of your email. a whole biz with a yahoo email? upgrade my guy

DON'T DIG YOUR NOSE. IT'S SO NOT COOL!!!
StephenAlala
#24 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2008 1:46:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
@Good Fella. Caution is always the word. You must read all the fine print.

One great thing that distinguishes FX from the stock market is the ability to ask the person proposing to trade on your real-money account to trade your demo account (fake money) in exactly the same way he is trading real life money.

An Expert Advisor like the one advertised up there is like a robot trader. It is a piece of software that trades your account automatically in response to specified market conditions.

The best caution you could employ is to open a demo account (fake money) with a forex broker of your choice and run the expert advisor FOR FREE for six months to see whether it really lives up to the promise. NEVER PAY MONEY FOR AN EXPERT ADVISOR YOU HAVE NOT EXTENSIVELY TESTED. Most responsible developers will let you run the expert advisor for free to let you see if it works. Proof should be in the pudding.

Many Expert Advisors can bust your account so you should be very careful about using an Expert Advisor on a live account without extensive testing in different market conditions.

The upside of an Expert Advisor is that you do not have to be glued to the screen all the time and you will face no temptation to deviate from a pre-determined trading plan mid-way.

While everyone should make up his own mind,I mildly believe that technical traders should automate their trading actions to minimise the opportunities to be affected by greed and fear. I mean,software suffers no greed or fear (and these are the chief pitfalls in FX trading).

I do not believe that Expert Advisors can properly substitute fundamental trading. We develop about three custom Expert Advisors a month for FX traders who believe they have developed a working trading system. I have found that Expert Advisors that seek to use pre-specified economic figures as variables for automated trades neglect other unforseen economic developments (like bank collapses,war and death of important people) that change the market play entirely.

Trade (tread) carefully!
NGAATU
#25 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2008 10:37:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
Please Guys who are somehow crirtics without having the basic information or know information but are only there to distort the realistic information.For informationA. Fxafrica does not have any superior expert advise as purpoted or insuniated by few guys who are only misrepresenting the facts because of commercial gains or personal fears.What we have is the information which we develop daily over a considerable period of time and we continue to update our skills regurlaly.B. We do advice guys voluntarily as this a financial market like any other market and it needs economic skills and market skills for proper intepretention.There are no miracles like using &quot; superior system as said by guys with selfish motive&quot;.We do not force a person its a person will to get the information if he deems so based on his analysis.C. We do advice to take time before trading in the market,we do not open a demo(fake money) account the brokers do open not us.Yes the person needs to take enough time to practise,but a person can not practise what he does not know,he needs to know the information.Similarly we recomend before you invest with a person let the person have traded in live account first not demo account.MInd you the perfomance of past is not of the future!D. Mr alala is saying they have been testing &quot;expert advisors&quot; and have seen they are robotic of nature and are not consistent because of ignoring infromation. C'mon Mr. I bet the guys you are testing are your students or people without information trying to level themselves with economics facts.We are not testing the economics facts we are driving the information facts of economics.Those guys you have been testing a guys who only end up misrepresenting the facts because of information deficiency.- Your defense of that people mis fundamentals like war,death of an important person e.t.c are for naive and people with no information of facts of markets and economics.How can a person miss that information if he is really analysing the market!Those sentiments please are for ignorant guys or those people with no information about financial markets.- Can you ask mr.alala who are technicals and fundamentals?and how do the technical guys derive the information,don't they derive the information based on research of fundamentals and analysis and developing systems which they have tested for some time._All financial institutions globally and locally are deriving their analysis from where?technicals and if technicals where do they get their analysis from.We do encourage a person to have technicals but not in a silver platter as purported please you do need your own information and skills there is no magic as said.Where do all guys in financial markets derive their information if economic facts should be rubbished,from stock market,mutual funds,forex commodities e.t.c please be realistic in information and advice to guys.What guys are doing is giving you a holy grail and not subjecting a person to information research which in the long run makes him a slave of the said person regarding reports as he will not have skills to interpret the market time after time,so the said people will be the ones who will benefit by being begged for management of fund or assistance.We do not hide information we tell the reality.For technicals we do support as they very helpful; and research for the a lot and they are really helpful but they need analysis for proper consisteny in the market,let no person dupe willing investors with half facts.We are still developing a site which we will give daily analysis helped by good firms and sites for additional information,thats why i do have an e-mail with @yahoo.com if it rolls it will be normal.We believe ourselves with information thats why we will be issuing analysis and not hiding as my other fellows because they are only dependent on systems because of information deficiency! For Guys who have been conned with mint capital and royal fortune or Posta Sacco Guys fell on their trap because of being promised illusions but not hard facts.Am very sorry for them being taken into the dirt despite the two guys being regulated.For @GOOD FELLA be proud of having information rather than illusions which are practical in the short run,as an investor you need to be sustained in the game for a long time and you need information and skills based on experience and researching.Thanks

@NGAATU
StephenAlala
#26 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2008 10:48:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Ngaatu,on review of your paragraph D,I suspect that I may not have explained very well what an Expert Advisor is.

An expert advisor is a piece of software,not a human being.

When I say we have been developing and testing Expert Advisors based on fundamentals,I mean we have been developing and testing running software that automatically trades according to preset conditions.

But perhaps,I have not grasped the thrust of your argument. Would you kindly elaborate further on your point under your paragraph D?
Why lie?
#27 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2008 11:17:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/16/2008
Posts: 34
With all respect to these two bright fellows,why dont you discuss forex amongst yourself. Exchange emails for gods sake.... This thread has one of you originating an idea and the other responding.

The truth shall set you free
NGAATU
#28 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2008 11:26:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
Am sorry @why lie and all others who think am overstepping the discusion,i wont repeat it again .I will respond where information needed is neccesary,i do hope its helpful anyway.
Regards

@NGAATU
Ms. Investor
#29 Posted : Saturday, August 02, 2008 12:19:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/2/2008
Posts: 4
I think it will be helpful to all of us if we separate facts from opinions.

Fact is 90% of Forex Traders are losing money. Some people have no business trading forex considering the risk involved. Everyone should carefully consider their risk appetite and seek the advice of a financial advisor when in doubt not a forum discussion.




Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss. Please seek the advice of an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
NGAATU
#30 Posted : Saturday, August 02, 2008 10:47:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
Of course what you are saying is true Ms.investor that 90% of forex investors make losses.What i want to hear from you is the statistics of how many people do make profit in financial investments; mutual funds,stocks(shares) or commodities?Can you compute the data and help us on the percentage of those who make it and those who are at loss? Also can you give you help us with the data of how many people make it in Real investment (i.e Matatu business,hotel,hardware,name it..).Can you give us the number of those who make it in forex business.How many are the 10% by numbers?With a number of hundreds of millions this may be like tens of millions of people who are succesful in that business,and also there are many who end up making losses like any other investment.

Its true you need to consult a financial advisor to determine your risk apetite and time duration of investment.What you need to know Ms.investor is that you need to understand what is Risk Apetite in financial markets.It all depends on the methods of investment skills and the way you can minimize the risk to have good returns that is the thin line between investment and risk management.If an investment has high risk it has high return and waht you need is just minimising the risks.The bottom line is investment knowledge,information and skills which separates an investor from a person who is trying.
Am in financial markets and i can tell you from facts that only 13% of mutual funds do make a profit in the long run and the period is almost over 7 yrs if you take the data well,not what they are giving you.I can share information of unit trusts facts which most investors dont know and are also hyped.
REgarding Equity markets it all depends on volume for a person to be sustianble thats why there is emergence of unit trusts to help you invest and charge some fees and profit from the funds.
For real investments its also just a fraction maybe 10 - 20% who make it unless you have not tried real investment.
What i can tell my dear Ms.investor is that lack of information,skills,perseverance and being dynamic among others has no place in investment success if you want success and lack all those basics they you can say that this investment is that and that.There is no easy thing you need hardwork to minimize all risks.Do you have business which does not have risks?
Cheers

@NGAATU
Ms. Investor
#31 Posted : Saturday, August 02, 2008 11:41:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/2/2008
Posts: 4
The thread is entitled 'Realities of Forex Investment'and my response was specifically about the Forex Market so I will stick to exactly that. If about 90% of forex traders are losing money then it means that those making money are less than 10% which is a small number (no exact numbers even the CFTC does not have that information).

I agree all investments contain a certain degree of risk,my concern is that most brokers are not disclosing the risks of Forex to the public and that is why so many people are misled to think that this investment is an income guarantee type of business. Forex Trading is very risky and I do not recommend it to a lot of people. Only a few speculators have achieved the returns that you will see advertised on many websites. It takes a lot of time and effort to develop a good trading strategy and begin making some profit. What I recommend to anyone reading this thread is to carefully invest your money and time is studying the Forex and developing a trading strategy before jumping into the market. If a new trader,I suggest opening a demo account with one of the market makers in the U.S. for example Gain Capital or Oanda or FXCM. A demo account is free and will let you play around with the trading platform and get a feel of how it is to trade on your own. Another option is to invest your money into a Managed Account with a reputable Money Manager/trading system. The benefit of this is that you get to view the past performance of these programs before deciding whether to proceed with the investment. In addition,most of these brokers get paid by profit sharing so if you are not making money they don&rsquo;t get paid. I&rsquo;m not here to defame anyone but there is tons of free Forex Trading material online and yet some people pay loads of money for training that can be obtained for free. Further,if anyone is opening a self-trading account,you do not need to go through a Referring broker; you can contact the FCM (Market Maker) directly through their website and establish your account. There are no fees to open an account or to complete the paperwork; nobody should be paying any fees to establish an account. Unless,your broker is offering any value added services like free signals,charts (which most FCMs offer as well) then bypass the middle man and go directly with the trading platform provider. Now if you are the kind of person that finds it difficult to learn on your own and need mentoring and hand-holding,that&rsquo;s a different story&hellip;Please note that FCM&rsquo;s and the Referring Brokers get paid through the spread. If you are trading directly with the market maker,you will still get the same spread. So whether you are paying additional commission or not,the FCM and the Referring Broker are still making their money. Anyone interested in basic info on Forex trading,please visit http://www.nfa.futures.o...g/content/coverpage.htm

The NFA is the organization that regulates the Forex Industry in the US so there is no better source to begin learning forex trading than this...plus the information is absolutely free. Additional free study material can be provided upon request.

Thanks!


Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss. Please seek the advice of an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
StephenAlala
#32 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 2:00:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Ms. Investor and Ngaatu,could it be that FX is not unique in having 90% of its traders as losers?

Stocks and indeed,other investments may have the same 90% as losers.

Perhaps this would be clearer if people traded stocks and entered other investments with leverage of 400:1.

One other thing - do you think there is a special risk in FX being over the counter?
NGAATU
#33 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 4:36:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 107
I do concur Alala that forex is unique to other investments,thats why it calls a different approach.All financial markets have distinct differences and forex market is different due to level of risks and returns at the same time.

Its also true that most financial markets players make losses of even 90% its all because they are not discussed their factual performance to most wananchi.

Ms.Investor its true we are discussing a thread of forex.You need to remember that forex market its a type of market determined by the same fundamentals and technicals affecting other financial markets but the approach of tackling it requires different approach.Yes its true that is very hard to estimate the number of 10% of those who make it (as C.F.T.C does not have the figures) i guess its hard for c.f.t.c to say accurately the figures cause of the big number of market participants and it does not have a physical market place but by estimation of the number of players daily you cannot dispute that the 10% are numbering millions upon millions worldwide.

Of course forex market is not for any person due to the high nature of operations (i.e risks exposure,returns,management methods e.t.c).I also do think that not any investment is for anyone it will depend on the approach of the person,the risk appetite of the person,term duration of investment .....

Ms.investor having information and getting it on the internet for free and reading it and then tasting it is not for any person or any trader.There are hundreds of millions of information in the websites which a person can get but the difference is your analytical approach to the information got.If anybody can get information and start it then i will guess there consistency in the long run. Ms.Investor please can you assist us the reasons why many investors in the market are burnt and so its riskiness??

You need to realize the performance of the demo account will not be accurately your performance of a live account!Yes if you have tested the demo accounts and live accounts you can differentiate,the behaviors of some platforms in live accounts.What i do concur with you is that you need to invest time and knowledge in this investment.But Guiding a guy to test a demo account and then go into live account blindly you will make them complain a lot that its risky or bad and its only because of their approach as most are doing or have done that
.Mind you most brokers and website just want you to get the information they have without telling you the detailed approach of it.Be wary of that.And yes a fund manager should be a proven guy with consistency in his management and system.

@NGAATU
Xnjambi
#34 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 5:11:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/10/2008
Posts: 9
I imagined that all financial markets are influenced by greed and fear. I think the approach to all financial markets is the same. If you are good at stocks,you will be good in FX. If you are good in bonds,you will be good in FX.

I do not agree with Ms Investor when she says that you can go online and learn FX trading on your own instead of paying for it. I mean,it is possible - and I know some Harvard friends of mine who studied and learned botany at home. But these guys are way above average.

The normal chap needs guidance. For example - how does someone know to trade one lot per every ten thousand dollars of equity as opposed to every one thousand dollars?

What do you guys think is the proper risk? How many lots should I take per every USD 1,000 of equity?

I need no inspiration to make money
tonicasert
#35 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 9:31:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
XNjambi,

How many lots to be risked on equity is the $ 1M dollar question. It all comes down to how much of a risk taker you are.

- I've seen some seasoned traders talk of &quot;not risking 3-5% of your equity per trade&quot;.

- For institutional traders (banks etc),the trade,TP and SL limits are set by the management / board.

- Some brokers &quot;protect you&quot; by giving you less leverage ratio - For instance Oanda's maximum leverage is 1:50. I've seen some brokers giving leverage of upto 1:400! Thats suicidal,as most traders forget that leverage is a double edged sword: it can make or break BIG time.

Personally I look at it from the point of view &quot;how much loss am I willing to take compared to the equity?&quot; I find 6-8% loss of equity quite manageable.

So if say my capital is $ 1,000,and am an intraday trader working on a Stop Loss of 30-50 pips per trade,my trade size would be around $ 20,000 = [6% x 1,000 / 0.0030 pips].

Of course amount may deviate slightly depending on how strong one feel about the trade,technically or fundamentally.

This may be slow,but can consistence with discipline will get you there.

My 2pips worth...

Happy Trading




StephenAlala
#36 Posted : Monday, August 04, 2008 11:27:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Well,my recommendation is risk only 3%. That is 0.1 for every USD 1,000 with a stop loss of 25 pips (include spread to get 30 pips). Indeed for a newbie trader I recommend 2% only to be risked. That means 0.1 lots for every USD 1,500 of equity (or in tonicasert's language,USD 10,000 trade for every USD 1,500 equity).

If you risk 8% it means that if 12 and one-half trades go wrong you are out of business. if you do 3%,you have at least a month of survival guaranteed if you trade once a day as an intra-day trader.

Tonicasert,what take profit do you recommend for your 50 pip stop-loss trade?
PrimeCorp
#37 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 12:46:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/1/2008
Posts: 2
I don't mean to crash the FX Party here,but any of you FX Traders trade Ksh locally? Perhaps some of you'll work in treasury. Familiarity with Reuters 3000 Xtra Hosted Terminal and its usage among local dealers. Discuss

Most people with degrees will never know true financial freedom because they are trapped in a high paying job but are still employees making a pre determined amount.
tonicasert
#38 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 2:20:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
StephenAlala,

On 8% risk,this is on the higher side if I feel strongly about the trade. If one does more than 4-5 consecutive losses,its advicable to take a break - either dont trade for a couple of days to get back your cool,or go back to demo.

TP- not aggressive,about 30 pips,on that SL.

PrimeCorp,

Reuters 3000 Xtra is abit expensive for an individual. Most of the info you have there (rates and news) you can also get from the brokers (FXCM has a very nice news software,and times like release of economic numbers,I observed the news flash comes exactly at the same time with 3000 Xtra). Not sure how much it is now but it was about GBP 1,500 per month per terminal,paid semi annually some 2-3 years ago. Most individual traders would only be trading FX flow,and maybe a few digital options. This will account to a very small percentage of the information you get from 3000 Xtra.


tonicasert
#39 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 2:34:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
primeCorp,

On USDKES,trading as an individual can be tricky:

- You need huge capital as the trading is not leveraged.

- The exchange will be done at a bank's spread,which is pretty wide compared to more liquid ccy like the majors.

- At times the market can move in minutes,and the same wont be reflected in the market immediately. For instance if the market starts moving aggressively at open (9am),you can be caught off guard by the time you are placing the order.

- I dont think CBK is for the idea of speculating KES,and part of their mandate is to stabalise market (forces of demand and supply).
StephenAlala
#40 Posted : Tuesday, August 05, 2008 3:22:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2008
Posts: 44
Tonicasert,

Isn't a risk reward ratio of 30 pips TP to 50 pips SL bad chaos theory? The rationale is that your Take Profit should always be higher than your Stop Loss. The idea is that if you are trading without thinking,mathematically you'll be right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time.

Your research is supposed to change your chances to say 60% right and 40% wrong.

If your research abilities are bad and only serves to turn the table to 40% right and 60% wrong,the less frequently hit higher Take Profit will counter the more frequently hit (lower) Stop Loss. If your research is good,the more money you make.

Ideally,your Take Profit should be higher in pips than your Stop Loss.

What do you think?

Secondly,what do you guys think about regulation of Online FX in Kenya? Is it legal or are guys breaching some laws?
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