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Interest rates US vs. Kenya
gathinga
#1 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 1:33:47 PM
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Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
Read some place interest rates in the US is around 1%. Here the interest is around 10% on government instruments. Why would any sane investor put their money in US and avoid Kenya....There is an inherent risk higher here than US..But still still the differential is too large! Am am missing some parameters?
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KulaRaha
#2 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 1:58:19 PM
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Joined: 7/26/2007
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kyt
#3 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 2:40:20 PM
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Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
its very true, and even the central bank is not helping much. 7% is the cbr the lowest bank is 16%....sigh.....
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Cicero
#4 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 5:55:49 PM
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Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
I am certain there are several other factors which may make investors stick to the US at 1% compared to the treasury bill rates of ~8% and bonds rates of around 12% in Kenya.

The most immediate one is our flagile political system with it's risks. A successful referendum and 2012 elections would see our interest rates going down. The other issue is baseline inflation, whereas most countries maintain it below 2% ours is always above 7% at best meaning you have to have a yield of more an 5% in investments to stay above water. The third issue i can think about are xchange rates. If someone huge like Warren Buffet brought a significant amount of money to invest in Kenya, the kenya shilling would also gain agaisnt the dollar meaning that, all things remaining constant, they would lose out when getting out of the market.

But i am certain the most important factor why they dont invest here is lack of information. Do you think so?
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kizee
#5 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2010 5:57:37 AM
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the US treasuries secondary market is infinately more liquid and transparent then the kenyan FI scene...to most investors these two factors are key
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2010 6:21:27 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
The USA can PRINT money... which is what is happening...
If Kenya does the same... then we will stoke inflation...

If you tell a Kenyan, ati 1% for T-Bills... they will put it into other sectors (possibly) stoking inflation...

I think the GoK is overpaying (12.5% net of all taxes) for the Infrastructure Bonds. They could have paid 8% (tax-free) & gotten all the cash they wanted!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#7 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2010 6:33:20 AM
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Location: Nairobi
I heard bonds in Nigeria are dollar-denominated and offer rates far higher than ours, so if investors aren't interested in US treasuries they'll go to markets like Nigeria. So despite the differential they're looking for ease of entry.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee
#8 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2010 6:37:19 AM
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nigerian bonds are denominated in naira...the nigerian market is much more liquid and transparent than kenyas...kenyas market has 2 many structural flaws to attract offshore flaws..case in point the 15pct witholding tax on interest
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2010 9:34:27 AM
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Location: Nairobi
@scubidu - No idea if there are Nigerian GOVERNMENT bonds in US$. Please post a link. For a US$ investor there is the risk of 'devaluation' & the converse is true as well...

When KES was 68/- to US$, a US$ investor who put money in Kenya at 12% would have returned a NEGATIVE return coz now KES at 76/US$.

1% > negative return!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#10 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2010 10:37:22 AM
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Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@kizee. I meant to say that a foreigner told me that he'd rather by certain bonds in Nigeria that were dollar-denominated and offered rates at about 18%. This was about a year ago during the 1st IFRB. I don't know if things have changed.
What's your problem with withholding taxes exactly? I think we need them, perhaps your thinking of a lower figure.

As for the structural flaws in the Kenyan system...I remember you highlighted about the new forex trading platform...international trading platform...isn't that something useful for foreign looking for a quick exit strategy. I'm not into the currency scene so you'd probably know more. As for other things like political risk? Nigeria is just as risky as us.

@vvs. I don't have a link. It's based on a convo I had with a foreigner. He mentioned countries like Nigeria, Zambia and Malawi (I think) with these kinds of bonds. You're right about the returns...the weaker shilling is bad for them. But currency is pretty stable now. I don't know why.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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