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Investors Lounge
Kinuthiakaranja
#81 Posted : Tuesday, November 24, 2009 6:10:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
'I have been an investor in the stock market since the listing of the Safaricom shares,which became my debut investment. While I managed to secure a substantial allocation of the shares,I have been disappointed by the slump and opted to cash in my stocks at a low price to buy shares in one of the listed commercial banks that had declared growth in its profits. The positive performance of the listed bank had no influence in the price of its shares and similarly,it took a downward turn. With this devaluation due to price decline,I sold my shares and I am planning to quit stocks henceforth and invest in mutual funds where I can earn returns on my investment. Please advise me.'

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...66/-/sy8eov/-/index.html
Kinuthiakaranja
#82 Posted : Tuesday, November 24, 2009 1:36:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
The analysis by RBC Capital Markets is spot on. There's value in gold stocks hereto unrecognized by the market. Cast your eyes to the table posted in the photo gallery here: http://tinyurl.com/ygr4zk6

whereby certain gold stocks staged gravity defying ascents in the 1978 - 1980 period.

Miners such as Barrick Gold were able to weather the bear market by selling forward their gold. However,in a rising gold market these hedges have had to be unwound at a significant cost to the company.


'Here&rsquo;s an interesting way to view the potential longevity of $1000-plus gold prices,courtesy of RBC Capital Markets.

Take your top tier gold stocks and calculate the types of price scenarios their share prices are currently pricing in:'

Read more:

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...oz-long-term-gold-price/
Kinuthiakaranja
#83 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2009 6:21:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
CNBC's Scott Cohn takes a look at the modern day gold rush:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/1...eo=1340885115&play=1
Kinuthiakaranja
#84 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2009 6:43:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Bear in mind that South Africa's gold production registered a 2.9% year on year decline according to the country's Chamber of Mines. It ceeded top dog position in gold production to China.

'For some time,I have been warning that apparently plentiful supplies of gold and silver bullion-priced coins and ingots could quickly evaporate. Last Thursday we saw the first signs of a looming shortage of physical metals when just about all U.S. bullion wholesalers were unable to accept orders for the South Africa Krugerrand. One primary distributor said they expected coins in a few weeks,which I think means that they are waiting for a shipment of freshly minted coins from the South Africa Mint. My own company had to discontinue accepting new orders until we could lock in a supply...'

Read more:

http://www.numismaster.c...ticle&ArticleId=8590
tutebeng
#85 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2009 8:20:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/29/2009
Posts: 40
what was the price of Gold say in 1992,and what is the underlying value of Gold






Tutebeng
Kinuthiakaranja
#86 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2009 6:30:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
@ Tutebeng

Please review these resources for historical gold prices:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/gc.pdf

Gold is a vote of confidence on government and a hedge or insurance against instability and chaos. It is traded in the U.S. Dollar,thus,is a barometer of the market's opinion of the United States. Gold's ascent between 1968 and 1980 was a thumbs-down on the financial management of the U.S. Conversely,its descent between 1980 and 1999 was a thumbs-up on the turn around measures taken by Federal Reserve chief,Paul Volcker.

Between 2001 and 2007,gold was flashing warning signals on the unsustainability of the budget,trade and current account deficits of the U.S. Post 2008,the consequence of a $12.8 trillion bailout and guarantee scheme to rescue the financial sector in the U.S. may be a collapse in confidence in the Dollar. The unfolding of such a condition would result in hyperinflation.

China's frustration with the handling of the financial crisis by the Obama Administration is a verbal testament of the market's growing unease with the financial management of the U.S.

As an asset,it has over the long term kept pace with inflation but its key role is insurance. In times of instability,insurance premiums spike. In times of growing disquiet over government,gold rises.

If you have additional questions,please ask.
tutebeng
#87 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2009 7:29:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/29/2009
Posts: 40
KK,thank you for the charts you referred to,they are an excellent source of information.

Having checked the charts on gold prices,and on three points please explain,how and to whom is gold insurance,second,on the price of gold as an inflation hedge since the price appears somewhere at $390 per ounce in 1990 and $1180 per ounce in Nov 2009-a return of 203% over a period of 19 years,and two what investor does gold then become an asset worth considering.






Tutebeng
Kinuthiakaranja
#88 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2009 3:17:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Tutebeng,

Gold is insurance to individuals,institutions and states. The Dollar is the world's reserve currency,taking up 65% of the pie. The continual loose monetarty policies emanating from Washington guarantee a long term decline in the value of the Dollar. Most commodities traded in the Dollar will rise to compensate for the loss in purchasing power. This inflation shall permeate all nations open to free trade and markets. Gold has played a role as money in the past when nations were on a gold standard. It therefore is,along with silver,the most convenient way of hedging against financial mismanagement,instability and chaos.

My ascertion is that gold has by and large kept up with inflation. History shows us that this is not its primary role. For example,gold during the Gold Panic of 1869 known as Black Friday traded at $162 an ounce. A century later In 1968,it was trading at $35 an ounce inspite of the inflation rate over that period.

Gold is for the investor that has understood the fundamentals and drivers of the market which are highlighted in the following article:

http://economicedge.blog...armstong-gold-5000.html

Kinuthiakaranja
#89 Posted : Thursday, November 26, 2009 3:18:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
READ,PRINT AND FORGET ME NOT.

'The collapse of the US housing market bubble emphasizes how important it is to figure out what property is really worth,from a fundamental perspective. Make sure you&rsquo;re not over-paying!

Here are some yardsticks to avoid buying in bubble markets:

* Price to Rent Ratio (or Yield)
* Relative Prices
* Affordability
* Price to Replacement Cost

What ought a house to be worth?

To be supremely unemotional,a house can be considered,from a certain perspective,to be a money-making asset (especially if you don't live in it but own it to rent)....'

Read more:

http://www.globalpropert...oid-buying-into-a-bubble
Kinuthiakaranja
#90 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 6:38:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Amidst the U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday and the Hajj Pilgrimage,news of a 6 month moratorium request on $60 billion of debt from the government of Dubai. Markets are clearly rattled with fears of contagion and are scouring financial statements for signs of exposure.

In 2007,Dubai had the enviable statistic of having 50% of the world's cranes on its building sites. Accomplishments of Nakheel Development during the property boom is chronicled in the National Geographic 'Megastructures' series. Debt leverage,sweet on the way up is toxic on the way down.

'The government of Dubai is in major financial trouble.

The government late Wednesday said it would restructure Dubai World and announced a six-month 'standstill' on repayments of the state-run wide-ranging conglomerate's debt.

Government-owned Dubai World is a conglomerate with interests in real estate,ports and the leisure industry. The firm carries around $60 billion in liabilities. Credit agencies Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's downgraded the debt of a range of government-related firms,including DP World,after the restructuring announcement...'

Read more:

http://www.economicpolic...s-payments-on-dubai.html
Kinuthiakaranja
#91 Posted : Friday, November 27, 2009 6:42:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Beware the real estate sales mantra that property prices always go up.

'Housing markets in the world&rsquo;s leading economies continue to recover,says the Global Property Guide's summary of housing statistics for the year to end-Q3,2009. (www.globalpropertyguide.com)

Many housing markets in leading economies remain distressed. Of the 27 countries which have already published their Q3 data,more countries have experienced house price falls (17 countries) during the year to date,than have enjoyed price rises (10). In addition,the house price falls in several countries have been much larger than house price rises anywhere,and include unprecedentedly severe falls in Latvia (-59.7% year to date),the UAE (-48.1%),Bulgaria (-28.7%),Iceland (-21.2%),Russia (-19.5%) and Slovakia (-15.3%) (all figures inflation-adjusted)...'

Read more:

http://www.globalpropert...overing-unevenly-Q3-2009
karanjakinuthia
#92 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2009 5:05:24 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Instituting price controls is akin to replacing the intelligence of the market with that of bureaucrat and politicians. Knowing the latter, I would prefer the former.

http://www.youtube.com/w...;feature=player_embedded
Waria
#93 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2009 9:43:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2007
Posts: 213
Sasa this karanjakinuthia is masquarding as kinuthiakaranja...who is who. Just wazuaring. @ the former, Price controls are a neccessity in a fractionated economy like ours, Too much 'trust' in the efficient market theory led us to the current mess...REGULATE
karanjakinuthia
#94 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2009 9:48:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Watching the debacle in Dubai brings to the fore the rice paper thin nature of confidence which has jammed the upward thrust of global markets since March. The other aspect is the contagion element as a debt crisis often takes down more players than a normal market correction. Authorities in the UAE have borrowed the playbook from the West of turning the spigots of unlimited liquidity on.

"DUBAI -- Stocks in the Gulf region tumbled for a second straight session Tuesday as anxiety over Dubai's debt crisis spread to Qatar and Kuwait.

"[United Arab Emirates] markets are down again on continued concerns about Dubai's debt, despite some clarification from Dubai World earlier on its restructuring plans," said one trader at EFG Hermes. "Other Gulf markets are also being impacted by this news as investors worry about the contagion from Dubai's debt woes...."

Read more:

http://online.wsj.com/ar....html?mod=googlenews_wsj
karanjakinuthia
#95 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2009 10:05:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Waria, it is I KK. Perhaps, the tale below will shed some light on the effects of socialism, Marxism and Communism.

An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before, but had failed an entire class. That class had insisted that socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer.

The professor then said, "OK, we will have an experiment in this class on the present administration’s plan".

All grades would be averaged and everyone would receive the same grade so no one would fail and no one would receive an A.

After the first test, the grades were averaged and everyone got a B. The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy.

As the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too so they studied little.

The second test average was a D! No one was happy.

When the 3rd test rolled around, the average was an F.

The scores never increased as bickering, blame and name-calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for the benefit of anyone else.

All failed, to their great surprise, and the professor told them that socialism would also ultimately fail because when the reward is great, the effort to succeed is great but when government takes all the reward away, no one will try or want to succeed.

Could not be any simpler than that.
Waria
#96 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2009 3:21:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2007
Posts: 213
@KK Seems you have sorted your log in issues astutely. Now ths story has many loopholes including the fact that its a repeat post.

Am not against free market.. what am against is cartels, outrageous margins, and down right recklessness (washington mutual).

Lack of govt control of ice thin derivatives based on dubious fundamentals has led us here.

look at the giants of capitalism..GM, lehmann, Enron etc. Pseudo communist china is still king. Obama is already being accused of being socialist.

Back to kenya... The basic commodity industry is the hands of cartels and thats why price controls are a neccesity
karanjakinuthia
#97 Posted : Tuesday, December 01, 2009 4:31:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@Waria. I am glad you have been reading this forum. I too am against cartels which distort prices in their favour albeit sometimes matters turn awry leading to collapses. Kenyan oil marketer, Triton comes to mind.

Regulation is welcome so long as it ensures transparency and accountability. Wall Street's peddling of toxic over-the-counter derivatives around the globe should have been nipped in the bud early.

I have endeavoured to illustrate the foundation of a global rise in commodity prices. The weakening U.S. Dollar is the culprit. It has been on a multi-year decline causing a commensurate increase in commodities traded in Dollars to compensate for the loss in purchasing power.

The international community led by the Chinese have implored the U.S. to take measures to strengthen the Dollar. All they've gotten back is lip service.

Any attempt at controlling prices will result in distortions and the rise of a black market (free market). The government's attempt in December 2008 to cap the price of maize caused a farmer's revolt who had priced in much higher prices to cover high input costs. Faced with looming supply shortfalls, the government resorted to importation at higher prices than the local market offered.

The only way to buffer against international inflation is to have a strengthening local currency such as the Yen, Australian and Canadian Dollars, Norwegian Krona and Euro.
karanjakinuthia
#98 Posted : Wednesday, December 02, 2009 11:30:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
"What a difference a few days time can make. Last Friday was “Get the Hell out of Dodge and head for them thar’ hills” in regards to risk trades. Today is “Damn the torpedoes – full speed ahead” as risk is back in vogue. Evidently “investors” (and I use this term with a great deal of derision these days as we no longer have investors in the true sense of the word; we have motion chasers) are pooh-poohing fears of sovereign debt default as overblown. That sent money pouring back into the commodity sector as more hot money flows distort prices and wreck havoc with commercial hedging across that sector..."

Read more:

http://jsmineset.com/200...old-from-trader-dan-185/
karanjakinuthia
#99 Posted : Friday, December 04, 2009 5:10:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The dog of the continent is certainly on the mend. 9 years of declining output and hyperinflation has shattered confidence and caused human as well as capital flight.

Inflation in October was 0.8% versus 231 million percent in June of 2008.

"HARARE, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's battered economy is on track to expand for the first time in a decade this year and to grow by 7 percent in 2010 as key sectors such as agriculture and mining start to recover, the finance minister said on Wednesday.

Finance Minister Tendai Biti delivered the first full budget since a unity government was set up 10 months ago between President Robert Mugabe and his opponents to try to end a crippling economic and political crisis...."

Read more:

http://www.reuters.com/a...le/idUSGEE5B11GP20091202
Waria
#100 Posted : Friday, December 04, 2009 9:56:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2007
Posts: 213
karanjakinuthia wrote:
"Evidently “investors” (and I use this term with a great deal of derision these days as we no longer have investors in the true sense of the word; we have motion chasers) are pooh-poohing fears of sovereign debt default as overblown.


Motion chasers is very apt...Reminds me of WB when he said ' we are happy when we can make one good decision in a year' or no decision is sometimes the best decision...Observe the NSE whenever a calf is spotted..
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