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Investors Lounge
Waria
#61 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 3:48:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2007
Posts: 213
@ kinuthia thanks for all these...could we have more kenyan stuff...you think global act local? for starters you can analyse prospects for sugar/energy sectors. Aprreciated...BTW the lyold prayer was a blast

Me first,U next
Hi-Lo
#62 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 4:19:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
...the Lloyd's prayer!!!...this confirms Jesus as the greatest poet of all time...and He taught it off head back then...

Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.
Kinuthiakaranja
#63 Posted : Friday, November 13, 2009 6:31:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
@ Waria,thank you for your kind words.

We are an interconnected world. With a few keystokes,we can transverse great geographical distance. The internet has intertwined global finance enabling funds to flow unhindered from the whiff of default to the beckon of profit.

The global financial crisis was a litmus test of capital flows. No nation was spared. Therefore,I humbly submit my commentary on global markets with a view to pinpointing developments that may affect the local investor and citizen.

I penned a note on sugar on November 3rd concerning sugar. You will find more in the archives and charts on our Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/...oup.php?gid=44489575924


Energy has both a correlation to the U.S. dollar and global economic performance. The Dollar is headed southwards,thus,crude oil which is traded in that currency will head upwards to compensate for loss in purchasing power. Tepid global growth will drag crude's advance somewhat although the Far East is on a firm economic footing,possibly once again acting as the engine to global growth. On a timing perspective,analysis by Martin Armstrong points to the Dollar bottoming in 2015 - 2016. Energy,gold and other commodities will thus reach their peak then.

The historic gold:oil ratio has been 15. Back of the envelope estimates on oil prices based on Alf Field's conservative gold estimates are:

Phase 3 move from $500 to $2,500 gold - $166 oil

Phase 5 move $2,000 to $6,000 gold - $400 oil

His aggresive estimates:

Phase 3 move from $700 to $3,500 gold - $233 oil

Phase 5 move $2,500 to $10,000 gold - $666 oil


Please note that we are in the Phase 3 move. You can find Alf's projections here:

http://jsmineset.com/200...ds-predictions-on-gold/


Kindly review these resources for energy investing:

http://www.321energy.com

http://www.resourceinves...cks-part-1.aspx?k=keith


If you have additional queries,please ask.
Kinuthiakaranja
#64 Posted : Friday, November 13, 2009 11:25:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before,but had failed an entire class. That class had insisted that socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich,a great equalizer.

The professor then said,'OK,we will have an experiment in this class on the present administration&rsquo;s plan'.

All grades would be averaged and everyone would receive the same grade so no one would fail and no one would receive an A.

After the first test,the grades were averaged and everyone got a B. The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy.

As the second test rolled around,the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too so they studied little.

The second test average was a D! No one was happy.

When the 3rd test rolled around,the average was an F.

The scores never increased as bickering,blame and name-calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for the benefit of anyone else.

All failed,to their great surprise,and the professor told them that socialism would also ultimately fail because when the reward is great,the effort to succeed is great but when government takes all the reward away,no one will try or want to succeed.

Could not be any simpler than that.
Kinuthiakaranja
#65 Posted : Friday, November 13, 2009 11:29:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
A short guy is sitting at a bar just staring at his drink for half an hour when this big trouble-making central banker steps next to him,grabs his drink,gulps it down in one swig and then turns to the guy with a menacing stare as if to say,&lsquo;What&rsquo;cha gonna do about it?'

The poor little guy starts crying.

'Come on man,I was just giving you a hard time,' the banker says. 'I didn&rsquo;t think you&rsquo;d CRY. I can&rsquo;t stand to see a man crying.'

'This is the worst day of my life,' says the little guy between sobs. 'I can&rsquo;t do anything right. I overslept and was late to an important meeting,so my boss fired me. When I went to the parking lot,I found my car was stolen and I don&rsquo;t have any insurance. I left my wallet in the cab I took home.'

He continues,crying even harder. 'Then my dog bit me. So,I came to this bar trying to work up the courage to put an end to my life. And then you show up and drink the damn poison.'
Kinuthiakaranja
#66 Posted : Friday, November 13, 2009 11:33:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Heaviest Element Yet Known to Science: (Gv)

Lawrence Livermore Laboratories has discovered the heaviest element yet known to science.

The new element,Governmentium (Gv),has one neutron,25 assistant neutrons,88 deputy neutrons,and 198 assistant deputy neutrons,giving it an atomic mass of 312.

These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons,which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons.

Since Governmentium has no electrons,it is inert; however,it can be detected,because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second,to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete.

Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 &ndash; 6 years. It does not decay,but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places.

In fact,Governmentium&rsquo;s mass will actually increase over time,since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons,forming isodopes.

This characteristic of morons promotion leads some scientists to believe that Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass.

When catalyzed with money,Governmentium becomes Administratium,an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons.
young
#67 Posted : Friday, November 13, 2009 12:50:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Is it not better for this insights to come under investments rather than other discussions ?

AFRICAN INVESTOR
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Kinuthiakaranja
#68 Posted : Saturday, November 14, 2009 6:21:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
@ Young. The system used to post this forum in the 'Investments' section but nowadays places it on 'Other Discussions' regardless of my choice of Investments on the menu.
Kinuthiakaranja
#69 Posted : Saturday, November 14, 2009 6:30:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Legendary Jim Sinclair known as Mr. Gold for his remarkably accurate timing regarding the gold bull market of the 70&rsquo;s is the Founder of jsmineset.com and Chairman of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration. In this interview Jim discusses the incredible trading tactics of his father Bert Seligman and Jesse Livermore the two greatest traders of all time,their investing tactics,their investing strategies,taking risk out of the game,the advance in gold,the Indian Central Bank purchase of 200 tons of gold,the majors,mid-tiers and juniors,investing,trading,fundamentals,COT-commercials in trouble,shorting of juniors,bright future of quality juniors,how juniors should finance and sell their assets and more. King World News would like to thank Jim once again for being so gracious with his time.

Listen more:

http://www.kingworldnews.../11/13_Jim_Sinclair.html
Kinuthiakaranja
#70 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 5:53:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
London's Financial Times tackles the issue of dwindling global supply in the midst of rising investment demand. Just last week,Barrick Gold's CEO coined the phrase 'peak gold'.

'The world&rsquo;s top gold mining companies have warned that global production of the precious metal is likely to resume a long-term decline in coming years,in spite of a record-breaking surge in the price of gold to more than $1,100 an ounce.

Much of gold&rsquo;s recent rise to an all-time high of $1,122.85 last week has been due to the weaker dollar and huge inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs),as investors have sought sanctuary from the financial crisis by buying physical assets.'

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...bdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Kinuthiakaranja
#71 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 5:47:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71



This video illustrates that Joe and Njoroge Investor are yet to catch the gold bug. In time they will.

Gold's move from $730 - approx. $2500 will be driven by hedge funds,pension funds,wealthy investors and central banks. Joe and Njoroge will join the ride in the final phase sending the king of metals possibly above $5000.

Watch:

http://www.youtube.com/w...feature=player_embedded




Kinuthiakaranja
#72 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 6:00:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
While Joe and Njoroge Investor may not yet be on the gold rocket,the uber rich are apportioning a larger part of their wealth to the precious metal. Harrods of London is reported to be enjoying robust sales of its branded gold bullion bars.

'Luxury jeweller Asprey is teaming up with Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie to launch a new range of gold and other jewellery and accessories.

According to Women's Wear Daily,the couple have designed a collection of items entitled The Protector,with each piece based on a serpentine style.

Rings,pendants,earrings and men's cufflinks form part of the range alongside baby gifts such as eggcups,spoons,photo frames and tooth boxes.

The snake-based design of each piece came about because Jolie received a serpent-shaped ring when pregnant with daughter Shiloh and has considered the snake to be a protective talisman ever since.'

Read more:

http://www.mediacentre.g...ch_gold_jewellery_range/
kangi
#73 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 11:08:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/23/2009
Posts: 526
Hi KK,thanks for regular contribution on the financial global trends.Could u pse give an insight on Chinas hold of $770b of US bonds and what it portends on other world currencies i.e. yuen and euro for that matter.

Godisnowhere
Accept no one's definition of your life; define your life.
Kinuthiakaranja
#74 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 1:45:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
@ Kangi

Thank you for your kind words.

The Chinese have a saying,'Only when all contribute their firewood can they build a strong fire.'

As part of their efforts to 'build a strong fire',the Chinese had to utilise the ravenous Western consumer in order to ascend the developmental ladder. Her domestic economy consisting of citizens first coming on to the trappings of modern living,was incapable sustaining the output of its factories and vast labour force. The government therefore had to neutralize the effect of a rising Yuan by buying U.S. Treasuries and pegging its value to the U.S. Dollar. This mechanism enabled it to furnish the shelf spaces of the West,attract capital investment and leapfrog nations such as Germany and Britain in economic output.

Now that the Western consumer has curtailed spending in favour of saving,China has allowed the Yuan to appreciate from 8.28 to 6.83 to the Dollar over a 3-year period. In addition,Beijing has adopted a pragmatic approach at diversification by buying and securing mineral resources made cheap by the financial storm.

China has all but ceased purchase of U.S. Agency debt peddled by mortgage originators Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It has funnelled these funds into short-term U.S. debt instruments that can be easily rolled over once the inflation genie rears its head and threatens to devalue the value of its Treasury holdings.

Before the crisis,the market had been keenly monitoring the purchases of U.S. Treasuries by foreigners. A deceleration and outright halt would have been a death knell to the bond market and the Dollar. All that changed with the Federal Reserve's measures to prop up financial institutions and the economy by enveloping itself with $12.8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees. The rules of the game have shifted as the market is watching for a breakdown of the U.S. bond market.

The Yuan is a dictate of the Chinese authorities. They will allow it to appreciate slowly to fend off global inflation from the Western world. Meanwhile,the Dollar is trotting towards the cliff edge. A disorderly descent beckons. Hear the song of the canary in the coalmine &ndash; gold.

If you have additional questions,please ask.
Kinuthiakaranja
#75 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 1:46:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Opening the floor to recent central bank purchases of gold was the Reserve Bank of India,gobbling 200 tonnes of the 403 tonnes available. The market had anticipated the Chinese to allocate themselves the entire 403 tonne chunk on offer. No word has yet emanated from Beijing,allowing smaller central banks such as Sri Lanka and Mauritius to nibble.

Mauritius topped the 2009 Mo Ibrahim Index of Governance,ranking first in all of the four main categories.

'The International Monetary Fund announced today the sale of 2 metric tons of gold to the Bank of Mauritius,the nation&rsquo;s central bank. The sale was conducted on the basis of market prices prevailing on November 11,2009 with proceeds equivalent to US$71.7 million (SDR 44.7 million)...'

http://www.imf.org/exter...sec/pr/2009/pr09413.htm


'COLOMBO (AFP) &ndash; Sri Lanka&rsquo;s central bank on Saturday said it has been buying gold to diversify its reserves amid volatile currency markets,days after India announced it had purchased 200 tonnes of the precious metal.

Central Bank assistant governor Nandalal Weerasinghe declined to confirm analysts&rsquo; estimates that the tropical island nation had purchased around five tonnes of gold...'

http://ca.entertainment....onomy_gold_bank_reserves
Waria
#76 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 2:14:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2007
Posts: 213
@kk ...india 200tonnes!! Mauritius best of africa 'only' two tonnes....BTW How many tonnes does CBK hold? we must be having some left over from goldenberg atleast.....How would one joe go about buying gold in kenya?....Much appreciated

From this change good will come
Kinuthiakaranja
#77 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2009 6:37:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
@ Waria

Asante sana!

Kenya does not appear on the World Gold Council list of countries that have declared gold holdings. The list can be viewed here under 'Statistics':

http://www.reserveasset.gold.org/

We can draw the sad conclusion that Kenya has no gold holdings.

Our dear country does not merchants of officially issued gold and silver coins and bullion. The closest supply centres are are South Africa or Egypt:

http://www.randrefinery..../SAAND_Members_2009.pdf

http://www.invest.gold.o...re_to_invest/directory/


Factor in transportation,storage and insurance in your purchase decision.

Alternatively,you can opt to setup an offshore stock trading account and selectively invest in precious metal mining companies. This not only gives you exposure to the bull market,but also provides you with leverage to the rising gold price. I have chosen this option for its convenience,accessibility and leverage.

If you would like more information on setting up an account to buy mining stocks or if you already have the aforementioned account and would like exposure to mining shares,please inbox karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com or 0722-845343.

If you have additional questions or comments,do not hesitate to enquire.
Kinuthiakaranja
#78 Posted : Sunday, November 22, 2009 8:09:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
Green shoots in Zimbabwe from Alf Field who in 2008 set out the price milestones on gold's bull market. Well worth a read.

'In February 2009 Zimbabwe was the only country in the world without debt. Nobody owed anyone anything. Following the abandonment of the Zimbabwe Dollar as the local currency all local debt was wiped out and the country started with a clean slate.

It is now a country without a functioning Central Bank and without a local currency that can be produced at will at the behest of politicians. Since February 2009 there has been no lender of last resort in Zimbabwe,causing banks to be ultra cautious in their lending policies. The US Dollar is the de facto currency in use although the Euro,GB Pound and South African Rand are accepted in local transactions...'

Read more:

http://www.321gold.com/e...s/field/field111109.html
Kinuthiakaranja
#79 Posted : Sunday, November 22, 2009 8:27:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
I will wager that between the three options presented by LEAP/E2020 of inflation,high taxation and default,politicians will choose the path of least resistance,which is inflation. Small wonder that central banks of nations with surplus current account balances,are adding on to their gold reserves. Each statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary that they are pursuing a strong dollar policy seems to weaken the pillars of Dollar confidence.

In the movie 2012,John Cusack yells 'when the government tells you not to panic that means its time to run!'

'As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February,in the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order,the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010,as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum,a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation,high taxation or defaulting on their debt. A growing number of countries (USA,United Kingdom,Euroland (1),Japan,China (2),&hellip;) have used all their budgetary and monetary cartridges in the 2008/2009 financial crisis and are now left with no other alternative....'

Read more:

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-39-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-States-faced-with-three-brutal-options-in-2010-inflation,-high-taxation_a3995.html
Kinuthiakaranja
#80 Posted : Sunday, November 22, 2009 8:33:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/2/2009
Posts: 71
The late Hyman Minsky,Ph.D.,was a famous economist who taught for Washington University&rsquo;s Economics department for more than 25 years prior to his death in 1996. He studied recurring instability of markets and developed the idea that there are seven stages in any economic bubble:

Read more:

http://www.jiltin.com/in...99s-seven-bubble-stages/
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