Take 4: Bank of Ghana cuts its rate (cbr equivalent) to 25.5% from 26%. Inflation still at a head spinning 15.8%. Cedi is a little stable but still skidding nonetheless.
http://www.bloomberg.com...k-first-time-since-2011
Considering the fate of pegs and caps is always the same i.e. they both fall by the wayside eventually, the KE interest rate caps are going to have a short shelf life.

In addition, looked at through the global 5000 year prism, interest rates are set to rise - caps or no caps.

If we get crazy inflation next year and KES weakens excessively vs USD, the caps are going to look ridiculous at some point.

Take 5: Libya is still smouldering 5 years after the uprising. One hell of a devaluation awaits the dinar.

Inflation is North of 20%.

https://t.co/mwK9jiw6fD

Can't catch a break now, can they?

True, but international influence/interference is always there either explicitly or implicitly. This can be effected through international shylocks (think IMF and World Bank arm twisting ways), international banks(think Mozambique's tuna bond via Credit Suisse and VTB), international economic hit men/political mercenaries etc.

The result is the same irrespective of the tactic of choice. Libya and other Arab nations bore the brunt of schemes that got unearthed by the commoner.

Current dinar slide is a funding/revenue squeeze just like other commodity/oil dependent economies are experiencing.

Which banks arranged KE's euro bond? Both IMF and WB have made themselves comfy in KE in the last three years or so. Same script.

India's govt pulled a bone-headed move by demonetizing 86% of the nation's currency all in the guise of fighting corruption while the real aim is to increase the tax net. They have unwittingly given the masses a rope by which the establishment will be hanged.

India was poised to be the best performing of the larger economies in 2017 @circa 7% just ahead of China. In light of the recent developments, it will be hard to register anything above 3%. As if that is not bad enough, the policy whose aim was to increase govt revenue will end up drastically reducing it.

People and businesses with capital have the following choices;

1. Go underground completely to the extent of shunning the new 'compliant' currency notes and resort to barter trade. This will boost the so called black economy that demonetization aimed to eradicate.

2. Look for the nearest exit out of India causing high demand for fx.

3. A combination of the two both of which would be the cause and/or result of hyperinflation.

How the PM thought the policy was inspired is beyond me.
http://www.economist.com...y?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/

In a twisted way, the govt has effectively cannibalised businesses in India through an indirect bail-in of their cash and cash reserves. Funny world this one where emerging economies are emulating or radicalizing failed policies effected by stagnating/collapsing advanced markets.

After ravaging most of East European countries for the better part of the last four years, anti-EU movement goes mainstream. Italy is but the first of the big guns to catch the bug after the establishment's referendum is resoundingly defeated.

An election is likely to usher in a govt that will orchestrate an Italeave. Bank failures will make certain of that eventuality. It also makes sense from an economic perspective. Their banks have been getting a raw deal from the ECB and they won't draw any favors from them going forward. Back to the lira?

The doom loop between Italian sovereign bonds and banks is likely to get very strenuous as capital buffers get vaporized. The same pain will be exported to Spain and Portugal. Euro crisis part two coming up only this time it be a heck of a lot worse than in 2011/2012.

Spain somehow managed to keep the euro skeptic elements out of govt and it remains to be seen if France and Germany will succumb to the wave. The EU will be as good as dead if the govts of the latter two are over hauled by the skeptics.

2017 will most certainly be a torrid year for the euro. The referendum in Italy looks like the beginning of the end for the EU and the euro. Brexit could have been labeled an outlier due to its 'improbability/singularity' however, another walkout most likely by Italy creates a trend and sooner or later there is going to be a stampede for the exit door.
http://www.marketwatch.c...er_new&link=sfmw_tw
2016 is going out with a bang just like it started. Poetic markets.

Must be very tough out there. War on cash is getting out of hand with very absurd policies being put in place to eliminate it. Banks will take a serious hit in the aftershock.

The middle class catches the economic drift when it is already too late. Late in this case being when their jobs are on the line or they are faced by crippling inflation and a stagnant wage. The business owners/high income and low income classes have better readings since they are the first on the firing line either directly or indirectly. The same trend is evident in KE.

CBK guidelines/requirements when over Kshs. 1m ..... KYC, money laundering etc

Probably after NYS fiasco by banks, your bank is just being cautious and careful. Good thing though!!!!!

I just write 'shopping' and quickly forward it to the teller. Who is going to verify that?