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Investors Lounge
lochaz-index
#4921 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2016 5:16:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Considering that we are at a 5000 year global all time low in interest rates the markets maybe reverting to the mean...this will be extremely painful. The cost of money has been a reliable market signal right up to the GFC, after which it never reflected the real risk inherent in multiple investment avenues. NIRP is just a facet of that misnomer. Bonds from CCC, junk, investment grade, AT1/CoCo and sovereigns are about to be very expensive to service. A decade long(probably longer) sellside is coming for most developed markets. My take is that that development will tip the balance back to emerging and frontier markets in the long run.
http://www.thefiscaltime...l-Bank-About-Blow-Market
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4922 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2016 5:33:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
IMF chief Lagarde to face trial after French court rejects her appeal regarding $440mn payout

Former AIG chief Hank Greenberg finally goes on trial

Is the house of cards finally starting to tumble...? Think
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4923 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2016 5:34:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
Considering that we are at a 5000 year global all time low in interest rates the markets maybe reverting to the mean...this will be extremely painful. The cost of money has been a reliable market signal right up to the GFC, after which it never reflected the real risk inherent in multiple investment avenues. NIRP is just a facet of that misnomer. Bonds from CCC, junk, investment grade, AT1/CoCo and sovereigns are about to be very expensive to service. A decade long(probably longer) sellside is coming for most developed markets. My take is that that development will tip the balance back to emerging and frontier markets in the long run.
http://www.thefiscaltime...-Bank-About-Blow-Market

What the BoJ has done is beyond criminal Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4924 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2016 10:09:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127

Looks like things are not going according to script in many ways. With Obama's term coming to an end, Lagarde will lose her teflon suit and become fair game.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4925 Posted : Friday, September 16, 2016 9:26:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Eurozone is a basket case. Quite possibly the market has stopped pricing in inflation expectations and is focused on increasing default probabilities hence the spike in bond yields.

ECB's QE program runs out in March of next year. The 'blue-chip economy' of the Eurozone is Germany but it is of late extremely anti-QE led by Deutsche and Commerzbank. In addition there is not much monetizing room left for the ECB to explore. This could mean that Eurozone QE has a maximum of seven months...another development being priced in by the bond markets.

Meanwhile, funds from the peripheral EU economies is still piling in the bunds despite falling prices.

http://www.telegraph.co....n-and-that-is-dangerous/
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
alutacontinua
#4926 Posted : Friday, September 16, 2016 11:24:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
DB leading banking stocks into the red today.....

http://www.usnews.com/ne...-justice-dept-settlement
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
lochaz-index
#4927 Posted : Friday, September 16, 2016 11:32:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
[quote=alutacontinua]DB leading banking stocks into the red today.....

http://www.usnews.com/ne...justice-dept-settlement[/quote]
Deutsche Bank was slapped with a $14billion fine. Single digit prices are almost becoming a reality for this stock. Coming at a time when it can barely walk, this s a good example of Murphy's law at work.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4928 Posted : Friday, September 16, 2016 4:24:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
European banks are against Basel committee's recommendation to increase their capital despite support for the same measures from their American contemporaries. The latter having benefitted from massive bailouts in 2008 are now turning the screws on their besieged colleagues. At this point even AT1 bonds don't seem like a viable alternative to raise cash for European banks, especially the Italian ones.

http://www.bloomberg.com...nk-capital-rule-overhaul
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
tmatekwa
#4929 Posted : Monday, September 19, 2016 5:04:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/1/2007
Posts: 232
I wonder how the markets will react? Another down trend?

http://www.nation.co.ke/...7230-vud7roz/index.html
researchfirst
#4930 Posted : Monday, September 19, 2016 7:52:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/24/2015
Posts: 154
Location: Nairobi
tmatekwa wrote:
I wonder how the markets will react? Another down trend?

http://www.nation.co.ke/...7230-vud7roz/index.html


Nobody will give a crap. International investors, who are the ones who really drive the market, aren't looking to the past. They are waiting to see what will happen next year. If the election is smooth, we'll all be farting through silk.
hisah
#4931 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2016 6:53:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
MONEY MARKETS - Dollar Libor hits 7-year-plus Peak Before Fed Meeting

Quite tense out there...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4932 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2016 7:26:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The Debate Is Over: Banking Has Become a Criminal Enterprise in the U.S.

The final act will be the day the public loses confidence in the central planners.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4933 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2016 7:46:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
The Debate Is Over: Banking Has Become a Criminal Enterprise in the U.S.

The final act will be the day the public loses confidence in the central planners.

*ss covering time for banks across the world. Threats to their businesses are coming in all shapes and sizes.

DB has realized that a tad too late. They are now trying to massage their derivatives numbers in preparation for another capital raising exercise... that is if they can survive that long.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4934 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2016 10:07:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
EU is pressing forward with its self destruction on most issues. The latest is in the form of consolidated corporate profit reporting draft law with an eye on the capital inflows pie currently being enjoyed by the UK(brexit fame) and Ireland. https://www.theguardian....ackdown-pierre-moscovici
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4935 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2016 12:03:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
[quote=lochaz-index]EU is pressing forward with its self destruction on most issues. The latest is in the form of consolidated corporate profit reporting draft law with an eye on the capital inflows pie currently being enjoyed by the UK(brexit fame) and Ireland. https://www.theguardian....ckdown-pierre-moscovici[/quote]
Protectionism and nationalism are gaining currency lately at the expense of globalism. Corporate America with a foothold in Europe is sensing a case of selective application of the law by the EU. Regulators are way over their heads if they think this corporate witch hunt will aid their cause. Add labor union shenanigans in France where companies can't fire workers and Europe's corporate scene is messy at best. EU and euro demise is taking shape in earnest.
http://www.marketwatch.c...ompanies-away-2016-09-21
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4936 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:27:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
EU is pressing forward with its self destruction on most issues. The latest is in the form of consolidated corporate profit reporting draft law with an eye on the capital inflows pie currently being enjoyed by the UK(brexit fame) and Ireland. https://www.theguardian....ckdown-pierre-moscovici

Protectionism and nationalism are gaining currency lately at the expense of globalism. Corporate America with a foothold in Europe is sensing a case of selective application of the law by the EU. Regulators are way over their heads if they think this corporate witch hunt will aid their cause. Add labor union shenanigans in France where companies can't fire workers and Europe's corporate scene is messy at best. EU and euro demise is taking shape in earnest.
http://www.marketwatch.c...mpanies-away-2016-09-21

The EU is toast. Dead and buried. The EU Ivory tower can't see that they are chasing away capital!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4937 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2016 10:51:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Forget about any CB action. The days of don't fight the FED were or are about to be extinguished. They had their chance to be proactive and missed the opportunity. At the very most any rate hike or cut is going to achieve short term results (and even this is questionable) but at the same time have disastrous consequences both in the medium and long term aka their job description is that of damage limitation...a task they will also miserably fail to accomplish. Watch the markets instead coz it's what even the central bankers are doing anyway.

The CB's are behind the curve now - not that they are willing to admit it - and the party has to come to an end. If anything huge implodes in Q4, things will turn south pretty fast and 2017 is when most of the damage will be done.

World trade has been shrinking for the longest while. The juggernaut that is the German export machine is choking coz of this strain. A US recession is all but the last nail in the coffin to this business cycle. Whether it goes down on its own accord (thanks to its own excesses) or under the weight of a contagion from elsewhere is a flip of the coin kind of probability.

China that so ably acted as the saviour during the GFC is this time around part of the problem and a big part of the problem for that matter.

If you thought GFC was bad, buckle up, this is not going to be a pleasant experience. I cannot emphasize how important holding your nerve will be if one is to survive the carnage and/or thrive there after.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
murchr
#4938 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2016 12:17:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
Now that the FED rates remain unchanged, I think we are about to see more activity in the bourse
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
The Great
#4939 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2016 5:11:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2015
Posts: 233
America is smiling. This also means an end to tax havens in the carribean.
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
lochaz-index
#4940 Posted : Friday, September 23, 2016 1:01:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Both UNCTAD and OECD are suggesting that the third phase of the financial crisis is about to commence. This is after the IMF and the World Bank have been sounding numerous warnings over the course of the year. Plus mainstream media is tagging happily along with that script. Sure enough something is about to pop but the source of the alert is odd.

Nonetheless, their usual spin on the facts is apparent. They are of the idea that the hardest to be hit by the crisis are developing countries/third world nations.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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