On September 2nd,the Standard Newspaper carried a feature story on a growing trend in coffee smuggling. The practise was rampant during the coffee boom of the 70s when the commodity earned the title of 'the black gold of Chepkube' amongst smuggling circles. Coffee worth millions was said to have been channeled through the Kenyan Ugandan border.

Coffee prices are presently on the up and up.

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/ifry3hz/-/index.html



'Cotton,coffee,silver … these are things that are very depressed. This is where I would start looking … if I only had a million dollars… I wish I had a million dollars,then I would head out and look for those things.'

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/279938

Cocoa prices at 24 year highs and sugar prices on the ascendancy constitutes a pricey brew.


The consumer's wallet will be shredded by the second coming of inflation.




'Frustration is piling up in the sugar industry as traders struggle to process duty-free supply orders,nearly two weeks after the State conducted a repeat auction of import rights to help mop-up maximum volumes from the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa).



Figures by the Agriculture ministry showed that the importers have managed to ship in just 12,000 tonnes of sugar out of the 200,000-tonne quota allocated during the repeat auction.



This signals the difficulty in securing orders in the wake of a global rally in prices of the commodity. Only four importers have processed orders — partially.



Data show that producers in the Comesa could be diverting supplies to more lucrative global markets where prices have rallied to record high on the effects of foul weather in key growing nations such as Brazil and India. This has left nations dependent on Comesa....'

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/u6g5qjz/-/index.html




Previous analysis:

http://www.facebook.com/...575924&id=649361247



Long term chart:


http://www.mrci.com/pdf/sb.pdf

Truth from U.K. based The Telegraph.

The last paragraph is a grim reminder that the U.K. is blindly following the policies of the equally blind United States.

Consequences are inescapable.

'Many American economists say the greenback is falling because the global economy is recovering – so investors no longer need the dollar as a 'safe haven'.

That's nonsense. The reality is that 'safe haven' status has shifted away from the dollar and towards tangible assets that the US government can't debauch by printing more of them.

That's why gold just hit a fresh all-time high of well over $1,000 per ounce. That's why commodity-backed currencies like the Australian dollar are now soaring – causing howls of protest from Aussie exporters. Meanwhile,global investors are quitting the US currency because they're worried it's a sinking ship....'

Read more:

http://www.telegraph.co....nger-for-US-economy.html

The manufacturing sector faces strong headwinds from declining consumer consumption and rising input costs.

Reflect for a moment on the effect that the second coming of inflation will have on their enterprises. I'm reminded of a vice that tightens with every turn of the handle.

'Fluctuating copper and aluminium prices in international markets coupled with reduced business from regional power utility firms is hurting the profit margins of wire and cable firms in Kenya.

Local manufacturers hope demand for copper and aluminium from China will wane in the coming months,stabilising prices and enabling their businesses recover lost ground.

Amid growing global demand,especially from China,and persistent supply concerns,the benchmark price of copper has risen sharply from $3,748 in March to $6,195 a tonne in September—a 90 per cent increase. ...'

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/s1lx75z/-/index.html

'It is arguably one of the craziest gadgets to come out of the credit crunch - a bracelet which tells you when you are too stressed.

If emotions are getting the better of you while you are trading during this recession,then don't worry as help is literally at hand.

Philips Electronics has teamed up with Dutch bank ABN AMRO to develop a system warning traders when they're about to make a decision to buy or sell stocks while feeling overly emotional....'


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co....ssed.html#ixzz0U4VkM0QE

During the Japanese asset bubble of 1989,the value of Tokyo City real estate was worth that of all of the United States.

'HONG KONG — One of Hong Kong’s largest developers announced Wednesday that it had sold an apartment for 439 million Hong Kong dollars,setting a record,just hours after the city’s chief executive warned that the city might be facing a real estate bubble.

The deal,valued at the equivalent of $56.6 million,set a record price per square foot for Hong Kong,and the developer,Henderson Land,said it was not aware of a higher figure’s having been paid anywhere else....'

Read more:

http://www.nytimes.com/2..._r=1&pagewanted=all

Relief is at hand for Mr Wang’ondu and other coffee farmers. Like a phoenix,the 'black gold of Chebkube',is rising from the ashes once again.



'For the last 37 years Mr Chrysogon Wang’ondu has looked up to his coffee trees to change his... life for the better. But with producer coffee prices becoming more and more disappointing,the optimism that he had sustained since 1972 started giving in to scepticism.

The Nyeri farmer started off with 400 coffee trees,which he inherited from his father when he was 28 years old. During the coffee boom of the 1970s he increased the trees to 2,153.

But the expected potential of coffee has failed to change his fortunes and he is contemplating uprooting the trees when the rains come to plant napier grass to feed his two dairy cows.'

Read more:

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/s6jcm9z/-/index.html


A coffee boom this way comes.

NEW YORK/LONDON,Oct 16 - Arabica coffee futures soared to close at their highest level in 13 months on Friday,as market players reacted to bullish technical signals.

Raw sugar futures finished little changed after rallying on talk of renewed Indian physical buying inquiries and concerns over persistent rains in Brazil,traders said.

Cocoa finished little changed,while robusta coffee and white sugar ended the day in positive territory.

Arabica coffee futures felt earlier pressure from the firm dollar but reversed sharply higher on chart-based and fund buying,dealers said.

'It's mostly a technical move because it managed to break $1.40,so there were some buy stops,' said Marcio Bernardo,coffee analyst with Newedge USA.

ICE December arabicas surged 5.10 cents,or 3.7 percent,to close at
$1.4285 per lb,the highest settlement for the spot contract since
September 2008.

Read more:

http://news.alibaba.com/...powers-up-13-month.html

A gold mine is sometimes jokingly referred to 'a hole in the ground with a liar standing over it'. The success rate for bringing a discovery that lies below ground to actual production is 1 in 1000. In the global gold rush,most mining ventures are opportunistic fairy tales riding on investors willingness to buy all that is golden.


During the 70s,the share price of breadmaker named Liquid Gold would tick up along with the yellow metal.

Attention to future price has to consider rising investment demand that offsets a stagnation or decline in jewellery purchases. Gold bull markets are underpinned by investment as both a hedge against declining purchasing power of currency and against decline in confidence in government.

'Only a tiny handful of huge gold discoveries have been made worldwide in the last decade,which experts say is because virtually all the juiciest low-hanging fruit has been picked some time ago. And this new reality promises to help edge bullion prices increasingly higher.

The scarcity of world-class gold discoveries is already taking a toll on the mining industry’s bottom line. Global gold output has been dwindling by nearly 5% per annum since it peaked in 2001,even though bullion’s spot price has more than tripled since then....'

Read more:

http://www.resourceinves...;cmpid=resourceinvestor

...hey @KK...u using SK as depository of your research source materials? Man,buy your own bigger HD...

Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.

@Kangi

Thank you for your kind words and encouragement.

'With all thy getting get understanding.' - Steve Forbes

I have had the fortune to experience two bull markets,one in commodities (2001 - present) and the other in the NSE (2001 - 2006). I have been even more fortunate to experience three bear markets,one in the NSE (1997 - 2001),NSE (2006 - present) and the U.S. (2007 - present).

In that time,I have learnt from investing greats such as Warren Buffet,Benjamin Graham,Peter Lynch,Jim Rogers,Jim Sinclair,Monty Guild,Jim Puplava as well as the master of time,Martin Armstrong.

Great fortunes have been made by intrepid or courageous investors who get in at the genesis of a bull market and ride it all through. Recent examples have been the 1968-1980 commodity bull run,1982-1989 Japan asset bubble,1994-2000 Dot Com bubble and 2001-present commodity bull run.

Martin Armstrong and Jim Rogers have predicted the peak of the current commodity bull run to be in 2015 - 2016. This period will also exhibit a decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar versus a basket of major currencies,possibly culminating in a Dollar crisis. In addition,investors will sell government debt leading to flows into the stock market. As a result,interest rates in developed nations are poised to rise significantly and so are the stock markets.

Unlike most bull markets,one that involves commodities permeates all of organized society. Producers dance whilst consumers grimace. At $120 per barrel oil,the Gulf States had reserves worth $1 trillion,the highest for the region in history.

To benefit,an investor has a myriad of options. The most trodden path is to purchase gold and silver bullion and coins e.g. British sovereigns,American Gold Eagles and Buffalos,Canadian Maple Leafs,Austrian Philharmonics and Australian Kangaroos. An allocation of between 5-33% of your liquid net worth is recommended as a hedge against the decline in purchasing power. The investor can then add on selected gold and silver mining equities.

Selected currencies such as the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc also provide protection. An investor may choose further diversification by investing in crude oil producers and fertilizer companies.

A truly hands on approach is engagement in farming of internationally traded cash crops such as wheat,maize,soyabeans,sugar,cotton and coffee which are set to benefit from investment flows.

Lastly,sophisticated investors may speculate in the gold and silver futures market or forex market with a bias towards anti-dollar currencies such as Euro,Yen,Australian Dollar,New Zealand Kiwi and Norwegian Krona.