With the new constitution the era of big political parties is coming to an end. Parties will most likely be based on regional governments. every region will have small parties competing. Also there is no motivation to be in a big party as being a president is no longer lucrative. One can also be an independent candidate / MP.

To be PM you will need 50%+1 MPs (say 112 based on current no of MPs). So it will be very hard for a commoner,poor guy to be PM. MPs know they can be recalled and so the motivation is to maximise income as soon as possible.

People likely to be next PM are:

1) Aaron Mwau of PICK - He is rich & had ambitions to be president. He can take 112 MPs from different small parties to somewhere say Dubai,buy them off and bring them just before expiry of 60 days provided in the new constitution when National assembly can nominate one of their own to be PM (If the guy with largest party does not the confidence of MPs)

2) George Saitoti - He also has money and can ship 112 mps to Zanzibar and ensure they nominate him executive PM.

3) Uhuru Kenyatta - he also has lots of money.

4) Gedion Moi - His father's economic empire is huge

5) Kamplesh Patni - I think he still has money

6) Ephraim Maina

7) Who else?

Having said that there are many things I like about this new constitution.





The future is still orange

Please read the draft properly. There is another thread- a sticky issue- on the constitution where you will find some useful information.