Wazua
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Kengen success
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Yep, someone told me the same thing about KQ. We know where that ended up.  Wazua is about sharing and warning. Oh, well... let me be the fox who thinks the grapes are sour. It's 26 May 2016. Can someone please bring this conversation/screenshot up on 26 May 2017? Good Luck. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Yep, someone told me the same thing about KQ. We know where that ended up. Wazua is about sharing and warning. Oh, well... let me be the fox who thinks the grapes are sour. It's 26 May 2016. Can someone please bring this conversation/screenshot up on 26 May 2017? Good Luck. In your opinion what is the idea portfolio? This is mine for now: Kengen 31%, Kenya Re 22%, CFC 21%,TPS 16%, KK 6%, Equity 4%. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Yep, someone told me the same thing about KQ. We know where that ended up. Wazua is about sharing and warning. Oh, well... let me be the fox who thinks the grapes are sour. It's 26 May 2016. Can someone please bring this conversation/screenshot up on 26 May 2017? Good Luck. In your opinion what is the idea portfolio? This is mine for now: Kengen 31%, Kenya Re 22%, CFC 21%,TPS 16%, KK 6%, Equity 4%. There's nothing like an 'ideal portfolio' IMHO. We can just try for the best. We all have different risk tolerances and requirements. The issue is not how many KenGen one owns or even % of the portfolio. I am not convinced KenGen at 6.55 is the best alternative for someone with cash. My views may change in the future but today I am staying away from KenGen. BTW, GoK is offering tax-free bonds at/around 12%. Let's revisit on 16 May 2017. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Yep, someone told me the same thing about KQ. We know where that ended up. Wazua is about sharing and warning. Oh, well... let me be the fox who thinks the grapes are sour. It's 26 May 2016. Can someone please bring this conversation/screenshot up on 26 May 2017? Good Luck. In your opinion what is the idea portfolio? This is mine for now: Kengen 31%, Kenya Re 22%, CFC 21%,TPS 16%, KK 6%, Equity 4%. There's nothing like an 'ideal portfolio' IMHO. We can just try for the best. We all have different risk tolerances and requirements. The issue is not how many KenGen one owns or even % of the portfolio. I am not convinced KenGen at 6.55 is the best alternative for someone with cash. My views may change in the future but today I am staying away from KenGen. BTW, GoK is offering tax-free bonds at/around 12%. Let's revisit on 16 May 2017. In your opinion which shares do you think will outperform the market in the next year? Williamson,KK,Ken Re, I&M? I belief these are your sweethearts Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Yep, someone told me the same thing about KQ. We know where that ended up. Wazua is about sharing and warning. Oh, well... let me be the fox who thinks the grapes are sour. It's 26 May 2016. Can someone please bring this conversation/screenshot up on 26 May 2017? Good Luck. In your opinion what is the idea portfolio? This is mine for now: Kengen 31%, Kenya Re 22%, CFC 21%,TPS 16%, KK 6%, Equity 4%. There's nothing like an 'ideal portfolio' IMHO. We can just try for the best. We all have different risk tolerances and requirements. The issue is not how many KenGen one owns or even % of the portfolio. I am not convinced KenGen at 6.55 is the best alternative for someone with cash. My views may change in the future but today I am staying away from KenGen. BTW, GoK is offering tax-free bonds at/around 12%. Let's revisit on 16 May 2017. In your opinion which shares do you think will outperform the market in the next year? Williamson,KK,Ken Re, I&M? I belief these are your sweethearts @sparkly he also has some slight interest on Equity
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Yep, someone told me the same thing about KQ. We know where that ended up. Wazua is about sharing and warning. Oh, well... let me be the fox who thinks the grapes are sour. It's 26 May 2016. Can someone please bring this conversation/screenshot up on 26 May 2017? Good Luck. In your opinion what is the idea portfolio? This is mine for now: Kengen 31%, Kenya Re 22%, CFC 21%,TPS 16%, KK 6%, Equity 4%. There's nothing like an 'ideal portfolio' IMHO. We can just try for the best. We all have different risk tolerances and requirements. The issue is not how many KenGen one owns or even % of the portfolio. I am not convinced KenGen at 6.55 is the best alternative for someone with cash. My views may change in the future but today I am staying away from KenGen. BTW, GoK is offering tax-free bonds at/around 12%. Let's revisit on 16 May 2017. In your opinion which shares do you think will outperform the market in the next year? Williamson,KK,Ken Re, I&M? I belief these are your sweethearts I am a long-term investor.For firms I already hold shares in I look at the business rather than the current price BUT it is IMPORTANT to look at the entry price for 'new' purchases. I like EABL but I wish the price would fall. Another is BAT. If I had 'new' cash, I would look at T-Bonds (12% after-tax) if I don't mind locking in my funds for 4-9 years. I would even be tempted to lock funds at 11% (tax-free) for 18 months until after the elections. I believe KK will do very well in its business. The share price may stagnate for now and frankly I don't care. The only reason I do not sell & buy back later is I am a poor trader. And I expect it is a matter of when (not if) it will be taken over. I got caught out in Access. I bought, sold, bought, sold and then it was taken over leaving me disappointed. KenRe - That's a tough one. It is GoK controlled BUT I like the consistent dividend, lots of cash on the Balance Sheet, consistent growth in turnover. And the current management. And slow but steady growth. I&M - The "KE" bank (not Holdings but includes TZ) released results today. 1.75bn PAT. Let's assume/guess Mauritius and Rwanda contributed 150mn so 1.9bn which is approx EPS 4.90 for 1Q. Williamson - A tough one in the short-term. A winner in the long-term. I expect FY 2015-16 EPS at 25/- (based on WTK's 1H results + Sasini's results for 1H 2015-16) with a 20/- dividend. I expect low tea prices will hurt for 1H 2016-17 but they are good tea farmers who maintain their farms no matter what the price of tea is. So... I do not know what will out-perform the market. I think the market will remain 'weak' in 2016 and 2017. I expect Bonds (interest income of 12%) to outperform the market for the next 18 months. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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enyands wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Yep, someone told me the same thing about KQ. We know where that ended up. Wazua is about sharing and warning. Oh, well... let me be the fox who thinks the grapes are sour. It's 26 May 2016. Can someone please bring this conversation/screenshot up on 26 May 2017? Good Luck. In your opinion what is the idea portfolio? This is mine for now: Kengen 31%, Kenya Re 22%, CFC 21%,TPS 16%, KK 6%, Equity 4%. There's nothing like an 'ideal portfolio' IMHO. We can just try for the best. We all have different risk tolerances and requirements. The issue is not how many KenGen one owns or even % of the portfolio. I am not convinced KenGen at 6.55 is the best alternative for someone with cash. My views may change in the future but today I am staying away from KenGen. BTW, GoK is offering tax-free bonds at/around 12%. Let's revisit on 16 May 2017. In your opinion which shares do you think will outperform the market in the next year? Williamson,KK,Ken Re, I&M? I belief these are your sweethearts @sparkly he also has some slight interest on Equity Equity, TPSEA and Centum. Not huge but I like the management. Equity - They are innovative. They take the lead in many areas and these investments will pay off. TPSEA - Solid management. Poor business environment but I think Kenya is headed for better days AFTER the elections. They are looking to substantially renovate Nairobi Serena (ready after the elections) & Kampala Serena. This will serve them well. It will not surprise me to hear that TPSEA is buying out other hotels that fail. In Westlands, there are many competitors eg Dusit, Villa Rosa Kempinski, Sankara. Can Serena win the contracts to run (or buy) these in the future? Centum - I know there are concerns but at 45/- it is tempting. Not today though. I will wait until 2017. Why? I think the 'negativity' will keep Centum's price at current levels. Plus there's the elections. Unfortunately in Kenya, elections are a damper on businesses. After PEV 2008, it makes sense to keep cash on hand instead of investing it in buildings, machinery and farms that can be destroyed. CASH IS KING. [Cash includes near-cash like GoK treasuries] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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PKoli wrote:@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB? This is a KenGen thread! NIC - I like John Gachora and his FD. The NPLs worry me. KCB - I cannot put my finger on it but something doesn't sit right with me when I look at KCB. Look at their NPLs, NNPLs, low level of provisions vs NPLs. Also the Net NPL exposure has increased by 4.1bn in the past 12 months. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB? This is a KenGen thread! NIC - I like John Gachora and his FD. The NPLs worry me. KCB - I cannot put my finger on it but something doesn't sit right with me when I look at KCB. Look at their NPLs, NNPLs, low level of provisions vs NPLs. Also the Net NPL exposure has increased by 4.1bn in the past 12 months. He hates any government held stock. Govt has shares in kcb.in vvs eyes run away 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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enyands wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB? This is a KenGen thread! NIC - I like John Gachora and his FD. The NPLs worry me. KCB - I cannot put my finger on it but something doesn't sit right with me when I look at KCB. Look at their NPLs, NNPLs, low level of provisions vs NPLs. Also the Net NPL exposure has increased by 4.1bn in the past 12 months. He hates any government held stock. Govt has shares in kcb.in vvs eyes run away There's more to KCB than that. Like I said, my gut feeling is there's something we do not know. Or I do not know. BTW, who 'controls' KCB? Who has the influence to influence the hiring of board members and senior management? Ndegwas control NIC with 25% (or more) ownership. Shahs control I&M with various trusts/owners/firms 33%+ BB controls BBK. 50%+ SC controls SCBK. 50%+ GoK/NSSF controls NBK. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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VituVingiSana wrote:enyands wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB? This is a KenGen thread! NIC - I like John Gachora and his FD. The NPLs worry me. KCB - I cannot put my finger on it but something doesn't sit right with me when I look at KCB. Look at their NPLs, NNPLs, low level of provisions vs NPLs. Also the Net NPL exposure has increased by 4.1bn in the past 12 months. He hates any government held stock. Govt has shares in kcb.in vvs eyes run away There's more to KCB than that. Like I said, my gut feeling is there's something we do not know. Or I do not know. BTW, who 'controls' KCB? Who has the influence to influence the hiring of board members and senior management? Ndegwas control NIC with 25% (or more) ownership. Shahs control I&M with various trusts/owners/firms 33%+ BB controls BBK. 50%+ SC controls SCBK. 50%+ GoK/NSSF controls NBK. Top 10 Shareholders. Profile them and tell us who you think controls it.
1.Government of Kenya 523,600,000 17.5%
2. National Social Security Fund Kenya 227,436,743 7.62%
3. Karsandas Babla Kanaksingh 47,002,660 1.58%
4. Norges Bank Investment Management 46,881,418 1.57%
5. Schroder Investment Management Ltd. 28,706,100 0.96%
6. Old Mutual Investment Group (Pty) Ltd. 17,169,401 0.58%
7. Harding Loevner LP 15,075,300 0.51%
8. Templeton Asset Management Ltd. (Hong Kong) 14,170,571 0.47%
9. Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC 13,977,720 0.47%
10. JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 13,327,972 0.45%
Am very weary about family/individual controlled stocks...the Rawat scandal was enough to make people run from Britam "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:enyands wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB? This is a KenGen thread! NIC - I like John Gachora and his FD. The NPLs worry me. KCB - I cannot put my finger on it but something doesn't sit right with me when I look at KCB. Look at their NPLs, NNPLs, low level of provisions vs NPLs. Also the Net NPL exposure has increased by 4.1bn in the past 12 months. He hates any government held stock. Govt has shares in kcb.in vvs eyes run away There's more to KCB than that. Like I said, my gut feeling is there's something we do not know. Or I do not know. BTW, who 'controls' KCB? Who has the influence to influence the hiring of board members and senior management? Ndegwas control NIC with 25% (or more) ownership. Shahs control I&M with various trusts/owners/firms 33%+ BB controls BBK. 50%+ SC controls SCBK. 50%+ GoK/NSSF controls NBK. Top 10 Shareholders. Profile them and tell us who you think controls it.
1.Government of Kenya 523,600,000 17.5%
2. National Social Security Fund Kenya 227,436,743 7.62%
3. Karsandas Babla Kanaksingh 47,002,660 1.58%
4. Norges Bank Investment Management 46,881,418 1.57%
5. Schroder Investment Management Ltd. 28,706,100 0.96%
6. Old Mutual Investment Group (Pty) Ltd. 17,169,401 0.58%
7. Harding Loevner LP 15,075,300 0.51%
8. Templeton Asset Management Ltd. (Hong Kong) 14,170,571 0.47%
9. Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC 13,977,720 0.47%
10. JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 13,327,972 0.45%
Am very weary about family/individual controlled stocks...the Rawat scandal was enough to make people run from Britam GoK. Unless NSSF opposes GoK it will be hard for the other shareholders to gang up to outvote GoK. If GoK + NSSF vote together then getting the others to vote against them is nigh impossible. Based on your criterion, you would not buy Berkshire Hathaway. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:enyands wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB? This is a KenGen thread! NIC - I like John Gachora and his FD. The NPLs worry me. KCB - I cannot put my finger on it but something doesn't sit right with me when I look at KCB. Look at their NPLs, NNPLs, low level of provisions vs NPLs. Also the Net NPL exposure has increased by 4.1bn in the past 12 months. He hates any government held stock. Govt has shares in kcb.in vvs eyes run away There's more to KCB than that. Like I said, my gut feeling is there's something we do not know. Or I do not know. BTW, who 'controls' KCB? Who has the influence to influence the hiring of board members and senior management? Ndegwas control NIC with 25% (or more) ownership. Shahs control I&M with various trusts/owners/firms 33%+ BB controls BBK. 50%+ SC controls SCBK. 50%+ GoK/NSSF controls NBK. Top 10 Shareholders. Profile them and tell us who you think controls it.
1.Government of Kenya 523,600,000 17.5%
2. National Social Security Fund Kenya 227,436,743 7.62%
3. Karsandas Babla Kanaksingh 47,002,660 1.58%
4. Norges Bank Investment Management 46,881,418 1.57%
5. Schroder Investment Management Ltd. 28,706,100 0.96%
6. Old Mutual Investment Group (Pty) Ltd. 17,169,401 0.58%
7. Harding Loevner LP 15,075,300 0.51%
8. Templeton Asset Management Ltd. (Hong Kong) 14,170,571 0.47%
9. Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC 13,977,720 0.47%
10. JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 13,327,972 0.45%
Am very weary about family/individual controlled stocks...the Rawat scandal was enough to make people run from Britam GoK. Unless NSSF opposes GoK it will be hard for the other shareholders to gang up to outvote GoK. If GoK + NSSF vote together then getting the others to vote against them is nigh impossible. Based on your criterion, you would not buy Berkshire Hathaway. I would buy Berkshire because Buffets family is not directly involved in running of the businesses. As for those examples you've given above, i do not trust their integrity and succession plans "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:enyands wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:@VVS,
Well stated.
What's your opinion on NIC and KCB? This is a KenGen thread! NIC - I like John Gachora and his FD. The NPLs worry me. KCB - I cannot put my finger on it but something doesn't sit right with me when I look at KCB. Look at their NPLs, NNPLs, low level of provisions vs NPLs. Also the Net NPL exposure has increased by 4.1bn in the past 12 months. He hates any government held stock. Govt has shares in kcb.in vvs eyes run away There's more to KCB than that. Like I said, my gut feeling is there's something we do not know. Or I do not know. BTW, who 'controls' KCB? Who has the influence to influence the hiring of board members and senior management? Ndegwas control NIC with 25% (or more) ownership. Shahs control I&M with various trusts/owners/firms 33%+ BB controls BBK. 50%+ SC controls SCBK. 50%+ GoK/NSSF controls NBK. Top 10 Shareholders. Profile them and tell us who you think controls it.
1.Government of Kenya 523,600,000 17.5%
2. National Social Security Fund Kenya 227,436,743 7.62%
3. Karsandas Babla Kanaksingh 47,002,660 1.58%
4. Norges Bank Investment Management 46,881,418 1.57%
5. Schroder Investment Management Ltd. 28,706,100 0.96%
6. Old Mutual Investment Group (Pty) Ltd. 17,169,401 0.58%
7. Harding Loevner LP 15,075,300 0.51%
8. Templeton Asset Management Ltd. (Hong Kong) 14,170,571 0.47%
9. Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC 13,977,720 0.47%
10. JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 13,327,972 0.45%
Am very weary about family/individual controlled stocks...the Rawat scandal was enough to make people run from Britam GoK. Unless NSSF opposes GoK it will be hard for the other shareholders to gang up to outvote GoK. If GoK + NSSF vote together then getting the others to vote against them is nigh impossible. Based on your criterion, you would not buy Berkshire Hathaway. I would buy Berkshire because Buffets family is not directly involved in running of the businesses. As for those examples you've given above, i do not trust their integrity and succession plans I agree. You should stick with KenGen. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/4/2015 Posts: 241 Location: Kahno
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Please can someone explain what it means for the KEGNR selling at 0.05 in the market.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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It means if for example you have 1000 kengen rights issue allocated to you. If you don't want to participate in the rights and would like to sell them in the mkt your proceeds will be 1000*0.05=ksh.50 then deduct brokerage charges Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/4/2015 Posts: 241 Location: Kahno
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Ericsson wrote:It means if for example you have 1000 kengen rights issue allocated to you.
If you don't want to participate in the rights and would like to sell them in the mkt your proceeds will be
1000*0.05=ksh.50 then deduct brokerage charges Thanks, understood for the case of the seller. What about the case of the buyer who will take these rights?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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The buyer who will take the rights you are selling will buy at 6.55+0.05=6.60 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/4/2015 Posts: 241 Location: Kahno
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Ericsson wrote:The buyer who will take the rights you are selling will buy at 6.55+0.05=6.60 Ok, got it thanks.
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