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Kengen success
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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MadDoc wrote:watesh wrote:mlennyma wrote:watesh wrote:Realcement wrote:True value of Kengen to be known after listing the rights shares.
Watch out Aug to Oct 2016.
I still maintain 4.00 bob post rights When the shares flood the market, things will get messy. the only hope is that govt will not trade their rights soon otherwise it could even hit 3bob when rights hit the market This govt rarely sells stock, so there wont be excessive flooding. With 70% ownership and at current stock price they would only offload their stake to an INSTITUTIONAL investor at a premium If only GE would place a bid at Book value price of 27 bob. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 465 Location: Nairobi
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Blonde question:
Kengen's market capitalization as of close of trading 5/25/2016 is 14.29 B. After rights issue is complete new capital of 28.8 B will have been added so capitalization should be 14.29 + 28.8 = 42.09 B.
However, If hypothetically after rights start trading and price is at KES 2/= then capitalization will be ~6.6 B shares * 2 = 13.2 B. My question is where does the around ~30 B cash vanish to? Nobody has made this money so no wealth was transferred. Isn't that like money vanishing into a black hole?
ignore that Govts 20 B is debt convertion.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:MadDoc wrote:watesh wrote:mlennyma wrote:watesh wrote:Realcement wrote:True value of Kengen to be known after listing the rights shares.
Watch out Aug to Oct 2016.
I still maintain 4.00 bob post rights When the shares flood the market, things will get messy. the only hope is that govt will not trade their rights soon otherwise it could even hit 3bob when rights hit the market This govt rarely sells stock, so there wont be excessive flooding. With 70% ownership and at current stock price they would only offload their stake to an INSTITUTIONAL investor at a premium If only GE would place a bid at Book value price of 27 bob. The folks at GE aren't stupid. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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kawi254 wrote:Blonde question:
Kengen's market capitalization as of close of trading 5/25/2016 is 14.29 B. After rights issue is complete new capital of 28.8 B will have been added so capitalization should be 14.29 + 28.8 = 42.09 B.
However, If hypothetically after rights start trading and price is at KES 2/= then capitalization will be ~6.6 B shares * 2 = 13.2 B. My question is where does the around ~30 B cash vanish to? Nobody has made this money so no wealth was transferred. Isn't that like money vanishing into a black hole?
ignore that Govts 20 B is debt convertion. Can't add capitalisation to Shareholders funds. current amount of shareholders is quite high, I think 60B or so. At the end of the rights 28.8B will be added to shareholders funds. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Ericsson wrote:@watesh
There will be a increase in dividend in terms of the amount/payout this year Isn't this ironical considering kengen Is now asking for money The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:kawi254 wrote:Blonde question:
Kengen's market capitalization as of close of trading 5/25/2016 is 14.29 B. After rights issue is complete new capital of 28.8 B will have been added so capitalization should be 14.29 + 28.8 = 42.09 B.
However, If hypothetically after rights start trading and price is at KES 2/= then capitalization will be ~6.6 B shares * 2 = 13.2 B. My question is where does the around ~30 B cash vanish to? Nobody has made this money so no wealth was transferred. Isn't that like money vanishing into a black hole?
ignore that Govts 20 B is debt convertion. Can't add capitalisation to Shareholders funds. current amount of shareholders is quite high, I think 60B or so. At the end of the rights 28.8B will be added to shareholders funds. Shareholder funds will be about KES 180 Bn after the rights issue Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:kawi254 wrote:Blonde question:
Kengen's market capitalization as of close of trading 5/25/2016 is 14.29 B. After rights issue is complete new capital of 28.8 B will have been added so capitalization should be 14.29 + 28.8 = 42.09 B.
However, If hypothetically after rights start trading and price is at KES 2/= then capitalization will be ~6.6 B shares * 2 = 13.2 B. My question is where does the around ~30 B cash vanish to? Nobody has made this money so no wealth was transferred. Isn't that like money vanishing into a black hole?
ignore that Govts 20 B is debt convertion. Can't add capitalisation to Shareholders funds. current amount of shareholders is quite high, I think 60B or so. At the end of the rights 28.8B will be added to shareholders funds. Shareholder funds will be about KES 180 Bn after the rights issue This is a tragedy. Based on analysis I will wait out the storm and buy postissuance
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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obiero wrote:guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:kawi254 wrote:Blonde question:
Kengen's market capitalization as of close of trading 5/25/2016 is 14.29 B. After rights issue is complete new capital of 28.8 B will have been added so capitalization should be 14.29 + 28.8 = 42.09 B.
However, If hypothetically after rights start trading and price is at KES 2/= then capitalization will be ~6.6 B shares * 2 = 13.2 B. My question is where does the around ~30 B cash vanish to? Nobody has made this money so no wealth was transferred. Isn't that like money vanishing into a black hole?
ignore that Govts 20 B is debt convertion. Can't add capitalisation to Shareholders funds. current amount of shareholders is quite high, I think 60B or so. At the end of the rights 28.8B will be added to shareholders funds. Shareholder funds will be about KES 180 Bn after the rights issue This is a tragedy. Based on analysis I will wait out the storm and buy postissuance I second you in this man obi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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@Aguytrying The increase in dividend will be about 500-600mn compared to the cash for projects being raised of sh.28.8bn. So no alarm here since the real profits will also be higher Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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"If fully subscribed, the number of new issued shares shall be 6,595,084,368 with GOK controlling 70% or 4,616,559,058 shares. The new pro- forma theore cal equity capitalization of KenGen would be Kshs 174.61 billion immediately post-Rights Issue." That's a lot of shares with non-GoK shareholders BUT control will remain with GoK. Good luck to KenGen shareholders. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:"If fully subscribed, the number of new issued shares shall be 6,595,084,368 with GOK controlling 70% or 4,616,559,058 shares. The new pro- forma theore cal equity capitalization of KenGen would be Kshs 174.61 billion immediately post-Rights Issue."
That's a lot of shares with non-GoK shareholders BUT control will remain with GoK. Good luck to KenGen shareholders. There will be more liquidity. x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money. Compare with safcom where GOK has 35%, Vodafone 40% and free float 25%. 75% never moves yet Safcom is the most liquid share on nse due to the sheer number of free floating shares. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:"If fully subscribed, the number of new issued shares shall be 6,595,084,368 with GOK controlling 70% or 4,616,559,058 shares. The new pro- forma theore cal equity capitalization of KenGen would be Kshs 174.61 billion immediately post-Rights Issue."
That's a lot of shares with non-GoK shareholders BUT control will remain with GoK. Good luck to KenGen shareholders. There will be more liquidity. x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money. Compare with safcom where GOK has 35%, Vodafone 40% and free float 25%. 75% never moves yet Safcom is the most liquid share on nse due to the sheer number of free floating shares. 1. Who controls/runs (management) Safaricom? 2. Does Safaricom have debt? 3. Is Safaricom's pricing subject to political interference? 4. Do you trust the board and management of KenGen? Safaricom? Good luck. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:"If fully subscribed, the number of new issued shares shall be 6,595,084,368 with GOK controlling 70% or 4,616,559,058 shares. The new pro- forma theore cal equity capitalization of KenGen would be Kshs 174.61 billion immediately post-Rights Issue."
That's a lot of shares with non-GoK shareholders BUT control will remain with GoK. Good luck to KenGen shareholders. There will be more liquidity. x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money. Compare with safcom where GOK has 35%, Vodafone 40% and free float 25%. 75% never moves yet Safcom is the most liquid share on nse due to the sheer number of free floating shares. 1. Who controls/runs (management) Safaricom? 2. Does Safaricom have debt? 3. Is Safaricom's pricing subject to political interference? 4. Do you trust the board and management of KenGen? Safaricom? Good luck. Good questions. Good luck The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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My instinct tells me this share will join the sub 4 bob club post rights. Only 1 scandal away. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:"If fully subscribed, the number of new issued shares shall be 6,595,084,368 with GOK controlling 70% or 4,616,559,058 shares. The new pro- forma theore cal equity capitalization of KenGen would be Kshs 174.61 billion immediately post-Rights Issue."
That's a lot of shares with non-GoK shareholders BUT control will remain with GoK. Good luck to KenGen shareholders. There will be more liquidity. x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money. Compare with safcom where GOK has 35%, Vodafone 40% and free float 25%. 75% never moves yet Safcom is the most liquid share on nse due to the sheer number of free floating shares. 1. Who controls/runs (management) Safaricom? 2. Does Safaricom have debt? 3. Is Safaricom's pricing subject to political interference? 4. Do you trust the board and management of KenGen? Safaricom? Good luck. This is the problem of reading posts with a pre-determined response. Please note my point LIQUIDITY WILL INCREASE. (FULL STOP)Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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today i have placed a bid for some kengen shares at a price of ksh 6.50.Now i will be waiting for predictions of this man from west africa who insists the shares will trade at 3 bob post rights to add more.Thats if it will really happen. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:"If fully subscribed, the number of new issued shares shall be 6,595,084,368 with GOK controlling 70% or 4,616,559,058 shares. The new pro- forma theore cal equity capitalization of KenGen would be Kshs 174.61 billion immediately post-Rights Issue."
That's a lot of shares with non-GoK shareholders BUT control will remain with GoK. Good luck to KenGen shareholders. There will be more liquidity. x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money. Compare with safcom where GOK has 35%, Vodafone 40% and free float 25%. 75% never moves yet Safcom is the most liquid share on nse due to the sheer number of free floating shares. 1. Who controls/runs (management) Safaricom? 2. Does Safaricom have debt? 3. Is Safaricom's pricing subject to political interference? 4. Do you trust the board and management of KenGen? Safaricom? Good luck. This is the problem of reading posts with a pre-determined response. Please note my point LIQUIDITY WILL INCREASE. (FULL STOP) Move your FULL STOP further right and there's this... "x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money." ... If you insist it will 'attract smart money' just coz there are more shares available (liquidity) then good for you. Good luck. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:"If fully subscribed, the number of new issued shares shall be 6,595,084,368 with GOK controlling 70% or 4,616,559,058 shares. The new pro- forma theore cal equity capitalization of KenGen would be Kshs 174.61 billion immediately post-Rights Issue."
That's a lot of shares with non-GoK shareholders BUT control will remain with GoK. Good luck to KenGen shareholders. There will be more liquidity. x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money. Compare with safcom where GOK has 35%, Vodafone 40% and free float 25%. 75% never moves yet Safcom is the most liquid share on nse due to the sheer number of free floating shares. 1. Who controls/runs (management) Safaricom? 2. Does Safaricom have debt? 3. Is Safaricom's pricing subject to political interference? 4. Do you trust the board and management of KenGen? Safaricom? Good luck. This is the problem of reading posts with a pre-determined response. Please note my point LIQUIDITY WILL INCREASE. (FULL STOP) Move your FULL STOP further right and there's this... "x2 the numbers of shares in non-GOK hands will attract smart money." ... If you insist it will 'attract smart money' just coz there are more shares available (liquidity) then good for you. Good luck. That is my opinion. Yours is that the larger float will not attract institutional investors. One of us will be proven right the other wrong, in time. Let's revisit when they publish results of the rights. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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murchr wrote:Why is it that those not planning to get hold of Kengen are the most active in this thread? People throw stones at trees with ripe fruits. Life is short. Live passionately.
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