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KQ - 1st Half 2009-10
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 3:32:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
Well,after the disappointing FY 2008-9 due to a huge loss on the hedges,KQ reported its first loss since it went public,it is time to see if KQ has managed to pull up its socks...

In about 2 hours,KQ will announce the 1st half results for this Financial Year.

I hope (since I am a shareholder) KQ has a blowout 1H though the 1Q statistics were poor & the 2Q had a Strike by employees which grounded flights + attendant costs. I am hoping the Hedge Losses show partial (or better full but unlikely) reversals thus adding to reported profits.

Since many of us cannot attend the Announcement (why don't they show it live on the web for the rest of us) I hope those who go can access SK & post details for us as they are released.

If nothing else,I hope KQ has set itself up for a decent 2H.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#2 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 4:34:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
I understand losses are expected. A chance to get in again at ksh 20?
VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 5:15:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
1Q was poor & 2Q had strikes... but the management was optimistic during 2009 AGM...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Pierce
#4 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 5:29:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
@ VVS,

(I'm a shareholder)

I really have no idea what the results will be like..........I suspect the will be bad!!

However,focus focus focus.......WORLD CUP 2010


myks
#5 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 5:34:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 107
here...www.businessdailyafrica.com/-/539552/679262/-/59fmay/-/index.html

face your fears live your dreams
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 5:38:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
BD link is not working... please re-post

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#7 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 5:47:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Cut and paste from http://www.businessdaily...2/-/59fm9y/-/index.html

Kenya Airways is this morning expected to announce a loss for the first six months of this fiscal year,albeit lower than the one it recorded last year,analysts say.

The national carrier’s earnings fell 62 per cent from the previous half year to Sh736 million.

That half year loss was announced prior to the introduction of a new accounting requirements on fuel hedging that saw the airline report losses of Sh5.66 billion for the year,compared to pre-tax profits of Sh6.52 billion the previous year.

The newly introduced accounting rules forced the airline to book the total Sh7.5 billion loss it incurred from an unrealised hedging position in last year’s income statement,taking it deep into loss-making territory.

Kenya Airways hedged against jet fuel price movement till the end of 2010 at the height of turbulence in crude oil prices at the beginning of last year.

As such,it has not benefited from the low petroleum prices of recent months because it continues to pay for jet fuel at between $110 and $108 a barrel per the hedging agreement.

Analysts reckon that with fuel prices being higher than in the March when the new accounting requirement came into force means that some of provisioning for the hedging losses would translate into earnings in the present half-year.

The airline is expected to have made cost savings from un-hedged fuel since crude oil has been trading at lower rates in the six months to September this year compared to a similar period a year earlier.

“The results will be comparatively better than what was seen earlier as the increase in fuel prices works to their favour,” said Mr Justus Agoti,the head researcher at Sterling Investment Bank,adding the airline is not out of the woods yet since fuel losses are expected to sit on its books till next year.

African Alliance expressed similar views.

According to analysts,the airline’s performance in the current financial year is dependent on the direction the petroleum prices will take.

They caution that the airline is still not yet in the clear despite the slight increase in fuel prices as they have yet to reach the highs of over $100 that the airline hedged at.

Following increased fuel prices recorded last year,the airline hedged against jet fuel price movement till the end of 2010. But the financial crisis saw fuel prices reduce impacting the its hedges.

Kenya Airways is watching the upward movement of fuel prices keenly as an increase in prices reduces the airlines exposure and will translate into earnings on its books.
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 6:00:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
Break-even results... Nothing to write home about though they are 'optimistic' about 2H. Operating profit made but the strike (681mn in labor costs) & lost revenue (350mn) for 3 days & associated costs led to just above breakeven results.

***-*** The largest 'gain' was the hedge 'gains' of 1.9bn on a pre-tax basis. If you compare apples to apples (FY 2008-9) then 1H looks much better than FY 2008-9.



Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 6:08:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
What loss?

***___*** KQ made a profit in 1H 2009-10 (not a great profit but a profit nonetheless). The operating profit was down (vs 2008). The strike did dent the revenues. The gains from fuel derivatives (not the hedges) was 1.7bn. Then add (if you want comprehensive income) pretax hedge gains of Kes 1.9bn
***___*** Not the best performance but not bad either considering (1) Strike knocked 350mn in revenue (& some profits) (2) associated costs with strike like refunds,hotels,etc (3) 681mn extra labor costs even though the 1H was 'slow'


Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
uchumi
#10 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 6:13:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/16/2006
Posts: 228
vituvingisana what was the net profit
“I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 6:21:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
860mn from operations,etc & 2.2bn after factoring in hedge gains... All PAT

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
uchumi
#12 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 6:33:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/16/2006
Posts: 228
it is a share to watch.
“I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
Kausha
#13 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 7:38:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
1.7B from hedge gains but what worries me is their revenue was substantially down in USD terms however the translation to KES gave them 6.5B. They had a stronger year last year save for the fuel hedge hoodoo from what we can glean from this year's results.
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 7:49:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
@kausha - Very poor 1Q (the stats were horrible) but recovery in 2Q... the strike lost them $5mn (350mn) in revenues as well otherwise the revenues would have matched prior 1Q.
****** the hedge gains in 1H will help cash wise... as KQ will receive payments (or pay out less).

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Friday, October 30, 2009 7:58:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,099
Location: Nairobi
@kausha - The US$ drop is huge coz from 64 to 78 mean revenues are down huge in US$. Since US$/KES is around 75 now,there should a minimal impact on KES revenues. That said,I wonder what else KQ has done to manage costs.
****** I wonder what will happen to the new destinations once the $44,$45,$46,$47 flights are history...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
khisa
#16 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2009 7:08:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/28/2009
Posts: 2
Now that kq has made a 17% increase in profit before tax,am going long on its share i think by end of next week the impact on these fundamentals will already be seen.Happy trading!

evans khisa
+254733760385
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