Wazua
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SAFARICOM H1 2022-2023 EPS down 10%
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,451
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watesh wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem I would rather get the banks. KCB below 30, a potential dividend of 4 gives it a yield of 13%. I have loads of my daughters money in KCB but I am wondering if this government will spare KCB! Will the government NOT interfere with KCB moving forward? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:watesh wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem I would rather get the banks. KCB below 30, a potential dividend of 4 gives it a yield of 13%. I have loads of my daughters money in KCB but I am wondering if this government will spare KCB! Will the government NOT interfere with KCB moving forward? You have been in this market long enough to know GoK will interfere with KCB. Watu wanataka kughula Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,451
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VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:watesh wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem I would rather get the banks. KCB below 30, a potential dividend of 4 gives it a yield of 13%. I have loads of my daughters money in KCB but I am wondering if this government will spare KCB! Will the government NOT interfere with KCB moving forward? You have been in this market long enough to know GoK will interfere with KCB. Watu wanataka kughula What to do? Jump ship or stay put. Kinyua doesn't seem like the guy to put somewhere you want to eat. He is a building guy. That confuses me. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,451
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I even have a feeling the government had a lot to do with the surprising depressed dividend payment by the bank. Someone might need the Bank cash rich for some reason. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:watesh wrote:littledove wrote:buying heavily at 15, a growth stock with a divided yield of 8% is a real gem I would rather get the banks. KCB below 30, a potential dividend of 4 gives it a yield of 13%. I have loads of my daughters money in KCB but I am wondering if this government will spare KCB! Will the government NOT interfere with KCB moving forward? You have been in this market long enough to know GoK will interfere with KCB. Watu wanataka kughula What to do? Jump ship or stay put. Kinyua doesn't seem like the guy to put somewhere you want to eat. He is a building guy. That confuses me. Kinyua may not have the energy to fight the kughula crowd. He might resign or be retired if he doesn't play ball... #ThisIsKenya Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,451
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What do you advice @VVS. Jump ship? What would you do if your daughters money was in KCB at the moment and considering the exit price if you exit now? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:What do you advice @VVS.
Jump ship?
What would you do if your daughters money was in KCB at the moment and considering the exit price if you exit now? Sell KCB at 30 and buy 3x ABSA Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 955 Location: Kenya
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MaichBlack wrote:I even have a feeling the government had a lot to do with the surprising depressed dividend payment by the bank. Someone might need the Bank cash rich for some reason. KCB just did two major acquisitions in two years. TMB needed a whooping Ksh25bn cash deal to close and BPR needed Ksh5.3bn. There is also a challenge of bad loans during Oigara's era. Provision for these bad loans has eaten into the core capital yet on the other side deposits are still growing. NBK also needed a capital injection. KCB Kenya ended last year with a problem of really thin capital ratios they had to cut the dividend or raise capital from shareholders. Remember when Equity acquired BCDC it did not pay a dividend that year since it also had thin capital ratios caused by many factors including the acquisition.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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watesh wrote:MaichBlack wrote:I even have a feeling the government had a lot to do with the surprising depressed dividend payment by the bank. Someone might need the Bank cash rich for some reason. KCB just did two major acquisitions in two years. TMB needed a whooping Ksh25bn cash deal to close and BPR needed Ksh5.3bn. There is also a challenge of bad loans during Oigara's era. Provision for these bad loans has eaten into the core capital yet on the other side deposits are still growing. NBK also needed a capital injection. KCB Kenya ended last year with a problem of really thin capital ratios they had to cut the dividend or raise capital from shareholders. Remember when Equity acquired BCDC it did not pay a dividend that year since it also had thin capital ratios caused by many factors including the acquisition. That is a great summary at @watesh. Just to also add that KCB is considering an Ethiopia entry as well. They need to retain cash for all these growth opportunities. Of my banks though; this is the one that I watch with a 'side eye'. I do wonder whether these acquisitions are done at optimal prices. On another note, the new CEO has a point to prove. That his HR background is not a hindrance. So far he seems to be instituting the right things. A special squad has been put together to go hard on the bad loan recoveries. This squad reports directly to him. At current prices PE is at 2.2 - extremely low for a bank that still has growth potential. If they go back to paying 3 bob dividend until they settle, this is still above 10% yield and mark you the payout ratio is less than 25%. So they have room to grow dividend considerably in future. And KCB has historically been pro-dividend and its growth. 2023 is an anomaly. KCB has in the past also been another foreign investor 'buy'. When FI come back and if figures are looking up, they will buy KCB and price will improve. For the reasons above, I would still consider KCB at current prices.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 895 Location: sky
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heavy selloff by foreigners today, price range between 16.50 and 17. are we going to retest 13 ex dividend? The article on " Economic headwinds facing Safaricom’s Ethiopia venture" must have spooked the market There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2018 Posts: 561 Location: Britain
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littledove wrote:heavy selloff by foreigners today, price range between 16.50 and 17. are we going to retest 13 ex dividend? The article on " Economic headwinds facing Safaricom’s Ethiopia venture" must have spooked the market This Ethiopian gamble might end up being safcom's waterloo.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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Queen wrote:littledove wrote:heavy selloff by foreigners today, price range between 16.50 and 17. are we going to retest 13 ex dividend? The article on " Economic headwinds facing Safaricom’s Ethiopia venture" must have spooked the market This Ethiopian gamble might end up being safcom's waterloo. Yes it might be. But then again it might be just what they needed to turbo charge growth. Only time will tell.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:Queen wrote:littledove wrote:heavy selloff by foreigners today, price range between 16.50 and 17. are we going to retest 13 ex dividend? The article on " Economic headwinds facing Safaricom’s Ethiopia venture" must have spooked the market This Ethiopian gamble might end up being safcom's waterloo. Yes it might be. But then again it might be just what they needed to turbo charge growth. Only time will tell. The problems in Kenya are also present. They are suffering from unprecedented obstacles
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Queen wrote:Supply @21.25....
14 bob here I come. Hang tight! It is getting closer. I am staying away from Saf until there is more clarity on Ethiopia or it falls sub-10. So many higher dividend yield payers eg banks on the NSE. Sub 10 is a pipedream MJ throws in the towel. KES 10 previously looked improbable.. Never say never?
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 895 Location: sky
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https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/safaricom-shuts-down-its-sites-in-ethiopia-s-amhara--4331738Safaricom Ethiopia has shut down its sites in the country’s second-largest region, Amhara after the Federal Government declared a state of emergency in the latest setback to hit the telco's operations in the populous nation. The Federal Government on August 4 declared a state of emergency following fighting between the military and the Fano militia. “Ethiopia is indeed a tough market. The most important thing is the stability of the country and the ability to operate right across Ethiopia," Michael Joseph, the Safaricom Ethiopia chairman told the Business Daily. There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Queen wrote:Supply @21.25....
14 bob here I come. Hang tight! It is getting closer. I am staying away from Saf until there is more clarity on Ethiopia or it falls sub-10. So many higher dividend yield payers eg banks on the NSE. Sub 10 is a pipedream MJ throws in the towel. KES 10 previously looked improbable.. Never say never? Relax. he resigned from Safcom Kenya to focus on Safcom Ethiopia. He is Chairman in Ethiopia.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Queen wrote:Supply @21.25....
14 bob here I come. Hang tight! It is getting closer. I am staying away from Saf until there is more clarity on Ethiopia or it falls sub-10. So many higher dividend yield payers eg banks on the NSE. Sub 10 is a pipedream MJ throws in the towel. KES 10 previously looked improbable.. Never say never? Relax. he resigned from Safcom Kenya to focus on Safcom Ethiopia. He is Chairman in Ethiopia. Kenya needs him more. Let's wait and see how things go. It's not looking good to me
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Queen wrote:Supply @21.25....
14 bob here I come. Hang tight! It is getting closer. I am staying away from Saf until there is more clarity on Ethiopia or it falls sub-10. So many higher dividend yield payers eg banks on the NSE. Sub 10 is a pipedream MJ throws in the towel. KES 10 previously looked improbable.. Never say never? Relax. he resigned from Safcom Kenya to focus on Safcom Ethiopia. He is Chairman in Ethiopia. Kenya needs him more. Let's wait and see how things go. It's not looking good to me In MJ's own words.................. the big issue with Safaricom if you look at the earnings and the share price is Ethiopia; this is really the big risk for Safaricom. The fact that I am staying on as board chairman for Ethiopia and as an adviser to the company in Ethiopia should alleviate that worry. Ethiopia is a challenging market and I am still there. I was chairman when Safaricom went into Ethiopia and I believe it is my duty to stay on for that. It will take four to five years before we start seeing any meaningful contribution to the company from Ethiopia.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Queen wrote:Supply @21.25....
14 bob here I come. Hang tight! It is getting closer. I am staying away from Saf until there is more clarity on Ethiopia or it falls sub-10. So many higher dividend yield payers eg banks on the NSE. Sub 10 is a pipedream MJ throws in the towel. KES 10 previously looked improbable.. Never say never? Relax. he resigned from Safcom Kenya to focus on Safcom Ethiopia. He is Chairman in Ethiopia. Kenya needs him more. Let's wait and see how things go. It's not looking good to me In MJ's own words.................. the big issue with Safaricom if you look at the earnings and the share price is Ethiopia; this is really the big risk for Safaricom. The fact that I am staying on as board chairman for Ethiopia and as an adviser to the company in Ethiopia should alleviate that worry. Ethiopia is a challenging market and I am still there. I was chairman when Safaricom went into Ethiopia and I believe it is my duty to stay on for that. It will take four to five years before we start seeing any meaningful contribution to the company from Ethiopia. On new CEO "Maybe he has a different way of doing things, maybe I wouldn’t have done it that way but he certainly is a strong manager. It certainly is the end of an era; I just hope not the golden era."
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,059
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obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Queen wrote:Supply @21.25....
14 bob here I come. Hang tight! It is getting closer. I am staying away from Saf until there is more clarity on Ethiopia or it falls sub-10. So many higher dividend yield payers eg banks on the NSE. Sub 10 is a pipedream MJ throws in the towel. KES 10 previously looked improbable.. Never say never? Relax. he resigned from Safcom Kenya to focus on Safcom Ethiopia. He is Chairman in Ethiopia. Kenya needs him more. Let's wait and see how things go. It's not looking good to me In MJ's own words.................. the big issue with Safaricom if you look at the earnings and the share price is Ethiopia; this is really the big risk for Safaricom. The fact that I am staying on as board chairman for Ethiopia and as an adviser to the company in Ethiopia should alleviate that worry. Ethiopia is a challenging market and I am still there. I was chairman when Safaricom went into Ethiopia and I believe it is my duty to stay on for that. It will take four to five years before we start seeing any meaningful contribution to the company from Ethiopia. On new CEO "Maybe he has a different way of doing things, maybe I wouldn’t have done it that way but he certainly is a strong manager. It certainly is the end of an era; I just hope not the golden era." MJ says he doubted Bob Collymore too and look how that turned out. I agree with MJ, he is not great at being a board member. He'd rather be CEO. Seems his value add is limited if he is not running the show. Let him focus on Scom Ethiopia and KQ.
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SAFARICOM H1 2022-2023 EPS down 10%
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