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Centum 2019/2020
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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whiteowl wrote:Ericsson wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:After acquiring the 49.99% stake,Kirubi will then sell his stake to the highest bidder. Or just wait for the buy back program. He is in the board so he can influence a huge chunk of cashflow to go to the buy back program at the highest price possible. Easy money for him. Let's wait and see You can't play against the market only against other players. Let him try sinking billions and they'll be washed away as this thing heads to 10/= The "market price" is not always an indicator of "intrinsic value" and this has been written & talked about by Warren Buffett as well as Ben Graham. I think CK is smart bu buying up Centum when the prices are in the dumps. Centum has debt but it is not overly leveraged at the Holdings level. I wish I too had the cash to buy more Centum as CK mops up the available shares in the low 20s. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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rwitre wrote:whiteowl wrote:Ericsson wrote:watesh wrote:Ericsson wrote:After acquiring the 49.99% stake,Kirubi will then sell his stake to the highest bidder. Or just wait for the buy back program. He is in the board so he can influence a huge chunk of cashflow to go to the buy back program at the highest price possible. Easy money for him. Let's wait and see You can't play against the market only against other players. Let him try sinking billions and they'll be washed away as this thing heads to 10/= Centum is oversold. On NAV, EPS, DPS, track record over the years, future projection- its numbers are calling for value investors to board. Management is solid. Diversified portfolio with easy-to-understand businesses. CEO even has skin in the game Largest individual shareholder is stocking up more Top reasons for selling: 1. Shareholders looking for liquidity. 2. Panic over falling prices across the market. The company is fundamentally sound. Can we time the bottom? No. Is the share insanely cheap at the moment? Yes. Will you buy? Keep in mind: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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RIEK01 wrote:News was designed to try and stabilize price.There are many far better companies to put your money in. Solid management ??? Sidian, Akira, Amu power & RVR investments? Kelele ya chura  Akiira - Centum knows what the issue is and progress is being made. It's valued at cost on its books. The information is free and available. Amu Power - 100% has been provisioned. End of story. RVR -  Centum exited RVR 7+ years ago! It was a pre-JM acquisition. Apart from fear-mongering, was there a reason why this was brought up? Duds will happen. Apple had failures. Microsoft had failures. Exxon. Facebook. Google. All have had failures. And many, many more successes. Warren Buffett has had duds. Yes, Mr. Warren Buffett. Heck, Berkshire Hathaway the "textile mill business" was a dud. As was Dexter. And many others. How is Berkshire Hathaway doing today despite all the duds and crazy volatile markets? Centum: What are Centum's CURRENT businesses? What is the current debt level? What is the cash on hand? After so many years of Wazua, I hope the level of discussion rises to a level that comes with maturity. @RIEK - Please share these "many far better companies to put your money in" with us and explain why. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/18/2019 Posts: 185 Location: kenya
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Have they made any moves with that huge cash pile? The bottlers deal was completed in October right?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Impact of covid19 lockdown on Two rivers?
Has it been factored in the share price?
Apart from the cash...any attractive assets left in Centums portfolio?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 954 Location: Kenya
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nairobby wrote:Have they made any moves with that huge cash pile? The bottlers deal was completed in October right? Nothing that I have heard. A chunk of it was to go to fixed income to create liquidity for the company to cater for the expenses and future dividends and the other chunk was to go to what they call Fund 2 where they would invest in distressed companies with solid fundamentals. In a few months, if the current trend continues, they will have lots of opportunities. However, they were banking on cash collections from their real estate sales to pay the upcoming maturing corporate bond in June. If something happens to those payments in this current stress they may have to allocate some of their cash pile there.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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nairobby wrote:Have they made any moves with that huge cash pile? The bottlers deal was completed in October right? was deployed in reducing debt Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:nairobby wrote:Have they made any moves with that huge cash pile? The bottlers deal was completed in October right? was deployed in reducing debt Part of it was used to pay off one large loan and ODs. There is another large loan coming up for repayment but the cash (held at Nabo) is available. Interesting times. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/8/2018 Posts: 507 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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A good development. Price will now start moving to the true NAV. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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They have the capability of getting more cash/loans, if needed, for further acquisitions. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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The year is unpredictable with covid-19 effects Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 954 Location: Kenya
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From the CEO's statement in one of the interviews, an increase is not likely this past financial year ended March 31 even before covid. Centum (the company) needs to first either get higher dividends from Two Rivers Development, Isuzu, Longhorn, Nas Servair, Sidian & Nabo Capital or complete and sell its real estate projects since they can only recognize deposits from sales as revenue once a plot owner has completed the payment, the title has been processed and the project is complete. This new financial year Sidian is back in loss territory, Longhorn already given a profit warning, Nas Servair is out of service due to no activity at the airport and real estate industry is now under significant slowdown but we wait for further information on sales esp in Vipingo and Pearl Marina since some of their constructions are close to completion.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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watesh wrote:From the CEO's statement in one of the interviews, an increase is not likely this past financial year ended March 31 even before covid. Centum (the company) needs to first either get higher dividends from Two Rivers Development, Isuzu, Longhorn, Nas Servair, Sidian & Nabo Capital or complete and sell its real estate projects since they can only recognize deposits from sales as revenue once a plot owner has completed the payment, the title has been processed and the project is complete. This new financial year Sidian is back in loss territory, Longhorn already given a profit warning, Nas Servair is out of service due to no activity at the airport and real estate industry is now under significant slowdown but we wait for further information on sales esp in Vipingo and Pearl Marina since some of their constructions are close to completion. Dividend will result from the interest of 1.2B p.a. that was servicing debt as opposed to higher profitability from investments Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,055 Location: Nairobi
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FY2021 (April 2020 - March 2021) will be very tough for Centum's existing businesses but great for acquisitions. The Long Game. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:watesh wrote:From the CEO's statement in one of the interviews, an increase is not likely this past financial year ended March 31 even before covid. Centum (the company) needs to first either get higher dividends from Two Rivers Development, Isuzu, Longhorn, Nas Servair, Sidian & Nabo Capital or complete and sell its real estate projects since they can only recognize deposits from sales as revenue once a plot owner has completed the payment, the title has been processed and the project is complete. This new financial year Sidian is back in loss territory, Longhorn already given a profit warning, Nas Servair is out of service due to no activity at the airport and real estate industry is now under significant slowdown but we wait for further information on sales esp in Vipingo and Pearl Marina since some of their constructions are close to completion. Dividend will result from the interest of 1.2B p.a. that was servicing debt as opposed to higher profitability from investments Sounds like another 0.50 to 1/- on top of the 1.20.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 895 Location: sky
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Horton wrote:sparkly wrote:watesh wrote:From the CEO's statement in one of the interviews, an increase is not likely this past financial year ended March 31 even before covid. Centum (the company) needs to first either get higher dividends from Two Rivers Development, Isuzu, Longhorn, Nas Servair, Sidian & Nabo Capital or complete and sell its real estate projects since they can only recognize deposits from sales as revenue once a plot owner has completed the payment, the title has been processed and the project is complete. This new financial year Sidian is back in loss territory, Longhorn already given a profit warning, Nas Servair is out of service due to no activity at the airport and real estate industry is now under significant slowdown but we wait for further information on sales esp in Vipingo and Pearl Marina since some of their constructions are close to completion. Dividend will result from the interest of 1.2B p.a. that was servicing debt as opposed to higher profitability from investments Sounds like another 0.50 to 1/- on top of the 1.20. but they sold the biggest source of income, that will also be a factor because they used to pay debt from that income There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 954 Location: Kenya
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sparkly wrote:watesh wrote:From the CEO's statement in one of the interviews, an increase is not likely this past financial year ended March 31 even before covid. Centum (the company) needs to first either get higher dividends from Two Rivers Development, Isuzu, Longhorn, Nas Servair, Sidian & Nabo Capital or complete and sell its real estate projects since they can only recognize deposits from sales as revenue once a plot owner has completed the payment, the title has been processed and the project is complete. This new financial year Sidian is back in loss territory, Longhorn already given a profit warning, Nas Servair is out of service due to no activity at the airport and real estate industry is now under significant slowdown but we wait for further information on sales esp in Vipingo and Pearl Marina since some of their constructions are close to completion. Dividend will result from the interest of 1.2B p.a. that was servicing debt as opposed to higher profitability from investments There new dividend policy of 30% of cash annuity income at company level (not consolidated) means they needs dividend and interest income to go above 2.8bn. At half year 2020 it was at ksh0.6bn so for full year 2020 it may be hard to hit that but lets wait and see. The doing away with the ksh1.2bn in interest payments will lead to more earnings being retained at company level rather than bigger dividends in the short term till the top line is lifted. For a proper jump in dividends Centum Real Estate subsidiary has to pay some dividends to the parent company considering the vast majority of the assets are held by it. So far they havnt paid since projects havnt been handed over
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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watesh wrote:sparkly wrote:watesh wrote:From the CEO's statement in one of the interviews, an increase is not likely this past financial year ended March 31 even before covid. Centum (the company) needs to first either get higher dividends from Two Rivers Development, Isuzu, Longhorn, Nas Servair, Sidian & Nabo Capital or complete and sell its real estate projects since they can only recognize deposits from sales as revenue once a plot owner has completed the payment, the title has been processed and the project is complete. This new financial year Sidian is back in loss territory, Longhorn already given a profit warning, Nas Servair is out of service due to no activity at the airport and real estate industry is now under significant slowdown but we wait for further information on sales esp in Vipingo and Pearl Marina since some of their constructions are close to completion. Dividend will result from the interest of 1.2B p.a. that was servicing debt as opposed to higher profitability from investments There new dividend policy of 30% of cash annuity income at company level (not consolidated) means they needs dividend and interest income to go above 2.8bn. At half year 2020 it was at ksh0.6bn so for full year 2020 it may be hard to hit that but lets wait and see. The doing away with the ksh1.2bn in interest payments will lead to more earnings being retained at company level rather than bigger dividends in the short term till the top line is lifted. For a proper jump in dividends Centum Real Estate subsidiary has to pay some dividends to the parent company considering the vast majority of the assets are held by it. So far they havnt paid since projects havnt been handed over From what sources did they retire the bonf Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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