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Safaricom 2019/2020
Ericsson
#601 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 7:44:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
HY EBIT declines by 10.5%
Service revenue declined by 4.8% to ksh.118.4bn.

Borrowings grew from sh.8bn to 32bn
Profit before income tax down 12.8% to 44.7bn from 51.3bn in 2019
Profit after tax down 6% to 33.0bn from 35.2bn

They are forecasting/providing guidance of a 10% decline in FY EBIT from kes.101.5bn in FY20 to 91-94bn in FY21


Profit before income tax
H1--44.7bn
H2--48.9bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#602 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 9:13:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Let's wait for tomorrow when market opens plus the press statement from the management on the next moves


Shareholding of the operations in Ethiopia
Safaricom. 55.7%
Sumitomo corporation. 27.2%
CDC. 10.9%
Vodacom. 6.2%

Operations to commence in 2022.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Metch
#603 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 2:11:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/22/2015
Posts: 224
Location: Mombasa, Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Let's wait for tomorrow when market opens plus the press statement from the management on the next moves


Shareholding of the operations in Ethiopia
Safaricom. 55.7%
Sumitomo corporation. 27.2%
CDC. 10.9%
Vodacom. 6.2%

Operations to commence in 2022.


Why is the stock rallying?
This investment will not generate a return for at least 5 years.
Then there is the volatile political landscape that threatens to split the country in 3- TPLF in the North, OLF in the West, Refugees pouring into Sudan and detainees in the capital. Postponed elections are set for next month.
I'll hold my purse close to my bossom for now
Start!
mlennyma
#604 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 2:23:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,116
Location: nairobi
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Let's wait for tomorrow when market opens plus the press statement from the management on the next moves


Shareholding of the operations in Ethiopia
Safaricom. 55.7%
Sumitomo corporation. 27.2%
CDC. 10.9%
Vodacom. 6.2%

Operations to commence in 2022.


Why is the stock rallying?
This investment will not generate a return for at least 5 years.
Then there is the volatile political landscape that threatens to split the country in 3- TPLF in the North, OLF in the West, Refugees pouring into Sudan and detainees in the capital. Postponed elections are set for next month.
I'll hold my purse close to my bossom for now


deeply divided country
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Metch
#605 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 2:34:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/22/2015
Posts: 224
Location: Mombasa, Kenya
mlennyma wrote:
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Let's wait for tomorrow when market opens plus the press statement from the management on the next moves


Shareholding of the operations in Ethiopia
Safaricom. 55.7%
Sumitomo corporation. 27.2%
CDC. 10.9%
Vodacom. 6.2%

Operations to commence in 2022.


Why is the stock rallying?
This investment will not generate a return for at least 5 years.
Then there is the volatile political landscape that threatens to split the country in 3- TPLF in the North, OLF in the West, Refugees pouring into Sudan and detainees in the capital. Postponed elections are set for next month.
I'll hold my purse close to my bossom for now


deeply divided country


An analyst described it as,'the most racist country on earth' even their constitution recognizes the supremacy of tribes and every tribe has a militia.
Their slow burn can quickly turn into a full blown civil war especially now that Eritrea and Sudan have been invited in to take sides. Let my purse warm my bossom for now
Start!
sparkly
#606 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 4:05:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,001
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Metch wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Let's wait for tomorrow when market opens plus the press statement from the management on the next moves


Shareholding of the operations in Ethiopia
Safaricom. 55.7%
Sumitomo corporation. 27.2%
CDC. 10.9%
Vodacom. 6.2%

Operations to commence in 2022.


Why is the stock rallying?
This investment will not generate a return for at least 5 years.
Then there is the volatile political landscape that threatens to split the country in 3- TPLF in the North, OLF in the West, Refugees pouring into Sudan and detainees in the capital. Postponed elections are set for next month.
I'll hold my purse close to my bossom for now


deeply divided country


An analyst described it as,'the most racist country on earth' even their constitution recognizes the supremacy of tribes and every tribe has a militia.
Their slow burn can quickly turn into a full blown civil war especially now that Eritrea and Sudan have been invited in to take sides. Let my purse warm my bossom for now


Ethiopia is a Empire, not a country. Not much has changed for thousands of years.
Life is short. Live passionately.
murchr
#607 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 4:20:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,973
sparkly wrote:
Metch wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Let's wait for tomorrow when market opens plus the press statement from the management on the next moves


Shareholding of the operations in Ethiopia
Safaricom. 55.7%
Sumitomo corporation. 27.2%
CDC. 10.9%
Vodacom. 6.2%

Operations to commence in 2022.


Why is the stock rallying?
This investment will not generate a return for at least 5 years.
Then there is the volatile political landscape that threatens to split the country in 3- TPLF in the North, OLF in the West, Refugees pouring into Sudan and detainees in the capital. Postponed elections are set for next month.
I'll hold my purse close to my bossom for now


deeply divided country


An analyst described it as,'the most racist country on earth' even their constitution recognizes the supremacy of tribes and every tribe has a militia.
Their slow burn can quickly turn into a full blown civil war especially now that Eritrea and Sudan have been invited in to take sides. Let my purse warm my bossom for now


Ethiopia is a Empire, not a country. Not much has changed for thousands of years.



Despite all the racism, hate and yada yada, people will still want to make a call, send money, hate online, spread propaganda etc....Safaricom is on a mission to facilitate
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Queen
#608 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 5:08:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/21/2018
Posts: 477
Location: Britain
Much Know wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
Positive. Though I suspect, the market had kinda factored the price.


True
Next is how the financing for the license will be paid and building the network.
Safaricom is expected to go big in the debt market.


Does this mean the shareholders should expect a dividends freeze/reduction in the meantime?

no, most certainly an over subscribed bond and a share price rally which only atwoli is keen on destroying the way he did to KQ.


Remember there is also the small matter of setting up the requisite operational infrastructure. The cost involved is not small change.

Am surprised while giving out the composition of the consortium, they did not give any hint on how they intend to finance the cost of the acquisition and that of setting up the infrastructure.
Metch
#609 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 5:13:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/22/2015
Posts: 224
Location: Mombasa, Kenya
murchr wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Metch wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Let's wait for tomorrow when market opens plus the press statement from the management on the next moves


Shareholding of the operations in Ethiopia
Safaricom. 55.7%
Sumitomo corporation. 27.2%
CDC. 10.9%
Vodacom. 6.2%

Operations to commence in 2022.


Why is the stock rallying?
This investment will not generate a return for at least 5 years.
Then there is the volatile political landscape that threatens to split the country in 3- TPLF in the North, OLF in the West, Refugees pouring into Sudan and detainees in the capital. Postponed elections are set for next month.
I'll hold my purse close to my bossom for now


deeply divided country


An analyst described it as,'the most racist country on earth' even their constitution recognizes the supremacy of tribes and every tribe has a militia.
Their slow burn can quickly turn into a full blown civil war especially now that Eritrea and Sudan have been invited in to take sides. Let my purse warm my bossom for now


Ethiopia is a Empire, not a country. Not much has changed for thousands of years.



Despite all the racism, hate and yada yada, people will still want to make a call, send money, hate online, spread propaganda etc....Safaricom is on a mission to facilitate


The mission is valid. If they don't unravel like fireworks money will be made. Those jumping in now will absorb the risk- will join them later for rewards 😀
Start!
Ericsson
#610 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 7:05:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
murchr wrote:
HALLOOO!!

Halloween

Monday a press statement will be issued



What will be the impact on safaricom
share price positive or negative ?

Turning out to be positive.
Closed at 42.75 in today's trading.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Much Know
#611 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 8:25:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,506
Queen wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
Positive. Though I suspect, the market had kinda factored the price.


True
Next is how the financing for the license will be paid and building the network.
Safaricom is expected to go big in the debt market.


Does this mean the shareholders should expect a dividends freeze/reduction in the meantime?

no, most certainly an over subscribed bond and a share price rally which only atwoli is keen on destroying the way he did to KQ.


Remember there is also the small matter of setting up the requisite operational infrastructure. The cost involved is not small change.

Am surprised while giving out the composition of the consortium, they did not give any hint on how they intend to finance the cost of the acquisition and that of setting up the infrastructure.

JP Morgan baibeh
A New Kenya
young
#612 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 9:06:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 1,994
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Queen wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
Positive. Though I suspect, the market had kinda factored the price.


True
Next is how the financing for the license will be paid and building the network.
Safaricom is expected to go big in the debt market.


Does this mean the shareholders should expect a dividends freeze/reduction in the meantime?

no, most certainly an over subscribed bond and a share price rally which only atwoli is keen on destroying the way he did to KQ.


Remember there is also the small matter of setting up the requisite operational infrastructure. The cost involved is not small change.

Am surprised while giving out the composition of the consortium, they did not give any hint on how they intend to finance the cost of the acquisition and that of setting up the infrastructure.



A good option is a rights issue at a much discounted rate like 28bob/ share
Since it is a viable project , the rights
is selleable for those that cannot participate.
The share dilution will be temporary like for 2 years as they will cover up with much improved profitability .


The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Ericsson
#613 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 11:42:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
young wrote:
Queen wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
Positive. Though I suspect, the market had kinda factored the price.


True
Next is how the financing for the license will be paid and building the network.
Safaricom is expected to go big in the debt market.


Does this mean the shareholders should expect a dividends freeze/reduction in the meantime?

no, most certainly an over subscribed bond and a share price rally which only atwoli is keen on destroying the way he did to KQ.


Remember there is also the small matter of setting up the requisite operational infrastructure. The cost involved is not small change.

Am surprised while giving out the composition of the consortium, they did not give any hint on how they intend to finance the cost of the acquisition and that of setting up the infrastructure.



A good option is a rights issue at a much discounted rate like 28bob/ share
Since it is a viable project , the rights
is selleable for those that cannot participate.
The share dilution will be temporary like for 2 years as they will cover up with much improved profitability .





The top shareholder (treasury) will not agree to a rights issue due to pressing financial needs unless it's prepared to face a dilution of it's stake.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#614 Posted : Tuesday, May 25, 2021 11:44:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
Much Know wrote:
Queen wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Queen wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ali Baba wrote:
Positive. Though I suspect, the market had kinda factored the price.


True
Next is how the financing for the license will be paid and building the network.
Safaricom is expected to go big in the debt market.


Does this mean the shareholders should expect a dividends freeze/reduction in the meantime?

no, most certainly an over subscribed bond and a share price rally which only atwoli is keen on destroying the way he did to KQ.


Remember there is also the small matter of setting up the requisite operational infrastructure. The cost involved is not small change.

Am surprised while giving out the composition of the consortium, they did not give any hint on how they intend to finance the cost of the acquisition and that of setting up the infrastructure.

JP Morgan baibeh


Safaricom has the potential and capacity to issue a corporate bond in London or Amsterdam of $1bn.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Much Know
#615 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2021 8:16:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,506
They are to put up 55% of 900billion over next ten years. Even with ability for $1b, bond, how to finance the other $4b ? More $1b bonds?
A New Kenya
Ericsson
#616 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2021 8:59:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
Much Know wrote:
They are to put up 55% of 900billion over next ten years. Even with ability for $1b, bond, how to finance the other $4b ? More $1b bonds?


The business also has to generate its own through the revenue it makes and reinvesting the profits.
The key to watch now is how they will pay for the license fee and building the network.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#617 Posted : Thursday, May 27, 2021 8:53:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
https://kenyanwallstreet...trictions-for-safaricom/
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
murchr
#618 Posted : Thursday, June 03, 2021 6:51:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,973



Talk of visionary perspectives!
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#619 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2021 8:19:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
https://nation.africa/ke...ing-in-ethiopia-3426066

Safaricom consortium has paid the $850 million licence fee needed to start providing telecom services in Ethiopia.


Mr Balcha Reba, the director-general for Ethiopia Communication Authority told Nation.Africa that the consortium settled the fee on Wednesday. Safaricom won the bid last month after fronting the $850 million for the license, beating the $600 million bid by MTN.

The firm pledged to invest $8 billion in Ethiopia over the next ten years, becoming the first foreign firm to enter Ethiopia for telecom services.

The official said the new telecom operator in Ethiopia also calling itself Global Partnership for Ethiopia, according to the law, had signed a licence agreement seven days after being announced as winner.

It had also to make the total licensing payment 14 days after the winner is announced.

"Now, the consortium has paid the 850 million USD licensing fee to the Ethiopian government via the National Bank of Ethiopia without any pressure under the signature of the provider and license winner," the director-general said.

When Nation.Africa asked the official when the Safricom led group would start operation in Ethiopia, he said: "They might need up to 6-9 months pre-operational period but certainly they will be fully operational in early 2022"

Safaricom pledged to invest $8 billion in Ethiopia over the next ten years, becoming the first foreign firm to enter Ethiopia for telecom services.

Nation had learnt that, with over $ 8 billion total investment and 850 million USD licensing fee, the investment to be made by the Global Partnership for Ethiopia group will be the single largest FDI into the horn of Africa's nation to date.

According to Engineer Balcha, Ethiopia will announce an auction for the remaining second licence in the next few months by including new policy directions.

Entrance of the telecom companies will bring lots of benefits to Ethiopia including new technologies, huge investments, significant job opportunities, and the construction of various telecom infrastructures.

Mr Zemedeneh Nigatu, an economist, says opening up the telecom sector not only provides quality services at a lower cost, but it also opens the door to job creation and competition.

Finance Minister Ahmed Shede said the decision is an important step in the country's economic transformation process.

"This will enable all Ethiopians to have the same quality of services at affordable prices," he said.

Adviser to the Ethiopian Minister of Finance, Dr Biruk Taye, said that the selected company will provide 4G and 5G internet services.

He also said that backed by a satellite, the consortium will provide 4G internet coverage to the entire country within two years as part of its initial goal.

According to Dr Biruk, the group of companies will create up to 1.5 million new jobs over the next ten years.

As part of its home grown economy reforms, Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, eyes the digital economy to contribute about 6.6 percent to GDP by 2030.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#620 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2021 11:12:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,934
Location: NAIROBI
Why Safaricom rates Ethiopia market entry as better choice

On May 21, the Ethiopian Communications Authority announced that the Global Partnership for Ethiopia, a consortium led by Safaricom Plc had been awarded a licence to operate in Ethiopia’s telecommunications sector in view of the efforts to liberalise the economy.

Safaricom has indicated that the consortium, in which it commands a 55.7 per cent stake, intends to start operations in 2022 through the rollout of a voice and data network.

Julians Amboko talked with Safaricom CEO Peter Ndegwa on a raft of issues, including the political and foreign exchange risks in Ethiopia as well as the valuation of the company.

**********
You are venturing into Ethiopia at a time of considerably elevated political risk if you consider the situation in Tigray and the forthcoming election. Does this worry you?

Of course, there are risks that we need to consider as part of the overall investment but we need to look at Ethiopia as a long-term investment. In Ethiopia, we see a huge population, extremely favourable demographics and a country that is keen on advancing.
This is the only country that has one telecoms operator and there isn’t another country which offers the potential and opportunity that Ethiopia offers. Political risk is present like it is in every other country but the business case is actually positive.

Still on political risk, has Safaricom and its consortium sought any form of multilateral insurance, say from the World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), as a safety net in light of the potential downside risks?

One of the reasons we have structured the investment vehicle the way we have through the Netherlands is that the Netherlands has a Bilateral Investment Treaty with Ethiopia.

One of the things such a treaty helps you with is managing some of the broader risks that you may face as an investor. Of course, we plan to take appropriate insurances.

We have not made that decision because we were still awaiting the licence confirmation but you would expect us to take appropriate risk insurance to secure the business.


Foreign exchange risk is a major challenge in Ethiopia. Has the government of Ethiopia given any concessions on this front which anchors your confidence in something like your ability to repatriate dividends when the time comes?

It is true that there are liquidity challenges and currency fluctuation in Ethiopia. The government has been clear that it is undertaking a process of economic liberalisation, which includes the foreign exchange market. By 2023, the government believes foreign exchange will be largely liberalised.

Just to be clear, can we then make an inference here that the earliest we expect dividends off the Ethiopia business is 2023?

Because this is an investment which demands significant capital expenditure at the start, you don’t expect that dividends will be coming through in the early stages. We are quite comfortable that by the time we need to start transacting on dividend payouts to shareholders we expect the liberalisation will be in play.


What’s your sense of how the average revenue per user landscape could look like at least in the medium-term considering you are entering a market which already has a player with the first mover’s advantage?

In thinking through the Ethiopia business case, we benchmarked against the region. Each country is at a different stage of development and level of penetration and competitiveness.

The penetration of mobile communication is just over 40.0 per cent. You would expect that once the market has two or three players, this could rise to 90.0 per cent plus in a few years. Remember, we also have population coverage targets from the market regulator as part of the licence requirement.

So, what we can say is that we intend to accelerate the roll-out of our network across both voice and data to realise the share of the population which our assumptions suggest we can get to.

Unfortunately, we cannot disclose that at this point. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) will be determined by the competitive intensity, how fast we get to mobile money and other issues.


Away from Ethiopia, two months into the trials on 5G, how is that panning out?

We are currently at about 20 or so sites and are targeting having between 150 and 200 sites by the end of the financial year by which time we will have been able to test a number of use cases.

What are some of the challenges, if any, you have encountered in the rollout of 5G?

One of the challenges around the rollout of 5G is handsets. Remember that, for example, penetration of 4G enabled handsets in Kenya is only 40.0 per cent and that is what we have been trying to accelerate through Lipa Mdogo Mdogo through which we are adding a few million 4G enabled handsets annually.

So, when do you feel you will have realised the ‘critical threshold’ for 5G rollout across Kenya?

For us to accelerate 5G, we first need handset penetration to get to the right level. In another three or four years, the penetration should be at about 70.0 per cent.


Sometimes I look at the Safaricom share price and my assessment suggests that there could be a widening divergence between how the market is valuing the company and what the fundamentals suggest the valuation should look like. Keen to know what your thoughts are on this?

While I can’t pronounce myself on where Safaricom is valued, what I can do is to make available as much information about the company as possible to allow investors to value the business.

There are three aspects on how someone evaluates the prospects of a business. First is the growth opportunities looking into the future.

The second aspect is returns and this is where something like the dividends we pay comes in. Safaricom is actually a fairly diversified business compared to a typical telco.

Our intention is to continue providing acceptable returns to shareholders. The third important aspect then is how we manage risk, whether they are cyber risks, regulatory risks and so on.


https://www.businessdail...as-better-choice-3425162
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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