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Safaricom FY 2018/19
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Decline of revenue YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship . John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Now to look at M-PESA in a little more detail. The number of chargeable transactions per customer per month has increased to 12.2. This has grown steadily at a CAGR of 18% from 7.4 transactions a month just three years ago. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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Ericsson wrote:Kenyans have borrowed Sh45 billion through Fuliza since it was launched in January. Crazy stuff, this one will be a cash-cow the way it is design. Those opposed to mobile loans what say you  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Angelica _ann wrote:Ericsson wrote:Kenyans have borrowed Sh45 billion through Fuliza since it was launched in January. Crazy stuff, this one will be a cash-cow the way it is design. Those opposed to mobile loans what say you Safaricom KES 240 billion revenue mix Voice 36.6% M-PESA 31.2% Mobile Data 16.1% Fixed data 3.4% Messaging 7.3% Others 5.4% Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/18/2019 Posts: 185 Location: kenya
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Spikes wrote:Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Decline of revenue YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship . Decline in revenue growth**
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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nairobby wrote:Spikes wrote:Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Decline of revenue YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship . Decline in revenue growth** YES! That is it. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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Spikes wrote:nairobby wrote:Spikes wrote:Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Decline of revenue growth YoY is a red flag...You must keep vigil when things starts worsening you jump out of this ship . Decline in revenue growth** YES! That is it. Anyway yote ni sawa. But i think there will be growth in data and mpesa over the next 3 years due to innovation and new products. Also Equitel is now inside so reduced competition. Telkom/airtel ni wanyonge hawana uwezo hawana nguvu kabsaa!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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xtina wrote:Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Great stuff  though I do not understand why supply is 8x demand. I thought it would go to 30+ but now I see it has lost 0.55, from 29.55 to 29.00. Oh well, if it goes down, time to load more. There is something peculiar about Safaricom counter over the years. The peak stock price is factored in before release of FY results. So for those speculating the price of 29 to 30 Bob seems like the peak for now. Recall at this moment more people are selling than buying including foreign investors who are market makers. Anyone that sold or is selling now prior to FY result should be contented as they might have likely bought at sub 25 Bob a few months back. For long termers like us am looking forward to buying at sub 26 in some months ahead . Safaricom as a counter fundamentally is not strong . Her sustained growth in PBT and net income consistently over the years is her strongest point . That is why yours truly is still camping with her all these years since 2008 and have been buying in tranches thereafter . Link about foreign investors(speculators) exiting Safaricom prior to bumper result announcement below https://www.businessdail...098098-lh2cir/index.htmlThe wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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young wrote:xtina wrote:Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Great stuff though I do not understand why supply is 8x demand. I thought it would go to 30+ but now I see it has lost 0.55, from 29.55 to 29.00. Oh well, if it goes down, time to load more. There is something peculiar about Safaricom counter over the years. The peak stock price is factored in before release of FY results. So for those speculating the price of 29 to 30 Bob seems like the peak for now. Recall at this moment more people are selling than buying including foreign investors who are market makers. Anyone that sold or is selling now prior to FY result should be contented as they might have likely bought at sub 25 Bob a few months back. For long termers like us am looking forward to buy at sub 26 in some months ahead . Safaricom as a counter fundamentally is not strong . Her sustained growth in PBT and net income consistently over the years is her strongest point . That is why yours truly is still camping with her all these years since 2008 and have been buying in tranches thereafter . Link about foreign investors(speculators) exiting Safaricom prior to bumper result announcement below https://www.businessdail...98098-lh2cir/index.html
100% true
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Decline in revenue growth? Or is it a matter of the law of large numbers? In absolute terms is there a decline? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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young wrote:xtina wrote:Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Great stuff though I do not understand why supply is 8x demand. I thought it would go to 30+ but now I see it has lost 0.55, from 29.55 to 29.00. Oh well, if it goes down, time to load more. There is something peculiar about Safaricom counter over the years. The peak stock price is factored in before release of FY results. So for those speculating the price of 29 to 30 Bob seems like the peak for now. Recall at this moment more people are selling than buying including foreign investors who are market makers. Anyone that sold or is selling now prior to FY result should be contented as they might have likely bought at sub 25 Bob a few months back. For long termers like us am looking forward to buying at sub 26 in some months ahead . Safaricom as a counter fundamentally is not strong . Her sustained growth in PBT and net income consistently over the years is her strongest point . That is why yours truly is still camping with her all these years since 2008 and have been buying in tranches thereafter . Link about foreign investors(speculators) exiting Safaricom prior to bumper result announcement below https://www.businessdail...98098-lh2cir/index.html
Buy the rumor, sell the news. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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rwitre wrote:Ericsson wrote:Profit after tax at ksh.63.4bn
Earnings per share at ksh.1.58
Dividend per share at ksh.1.25
Special dividend of ksh.0.62 per share Good stuff Profit before tax ksh.91.86bn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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Ericsson wrote:rwitre wrote:Ericsson wrote:Profit after tax at ksh.63.4bn
Earnings per share at ksh.1.58
Dividend per share at ksh.1.25
Special dividend of ksh.0.62 per share Good stuff Profit before tax ksh.91.86bn Ulijaribu sana bro Ericsson wrote:Ericsson wrote:guru267 wrote:young wrote:Safaricom has printed 29.00 Bob today .
Hope there will be good news in tomorrows FY results Buy the rumor sell the news. I hope people don't get caught out in this frequent trap. Profit before Tax at ksh.94bn Dividend ksh.1.25 per share In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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That's close to $1bn "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,053 Location: Nairobi
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Safaricom innovates, invests, etc and makes 91bn (PBT). GoK gets 35% of this. Then GoK gives away 24bn to loss-making KQ. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/8/2018 Posts: 507 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:young wrote:xtina wrote:Pirate wrote:Profitability is solid.
However ,I'm more concerned with the continuous decline in revenue growth to 7% ( 2018- 10% ,2017- 18%) .
My guess is the share will hit 30 max and decline to mid-20's in the very short-term
Great stuff though I do not understand why supply is 8x demand. I thought it would go to 30+ but now I see it has lost 0.55, from 29.55 to 29.00. Oh well, if it goes down, time to load more. There is something peculiar about Safaricom counter over the years. The peak stock price is factored in before release of FY results. So for those speculating the price of 29 to 30 Bob seems like the peak for now. Recall at this moment more people are selling than buying including foreign investors who are market makers. Anyone that sold or is selling now prior to FY result should be contented as they might have likely bought at sub 25 Bob a few months back. For long termers like us am looking forward to buying at sub 26 in some months ahead . Safaricom as a counter fundamentally is not strong . Her sustained growth in PBT and net income consistently over the years is her strongest point . That is why yours truly is still camping with her all these years since 2008 and have been buying in tranches thereafter . Link about foreign investors(speculators) exiting Safaricom prior to bumper result announcement below https://www.businessdail...98098-lh2cir/index.html
Buy the rumor, sell the news. This is a retirement stock. Cash rich, solid management, market dominance, innovative products. Park capital here, you're safe and guaranteed returns for the foreseeable future (unless GoK plants some visionless puppet as CEO after Collymore exits). Capital gains will come slowly. You can buy SCOM and sleep peacefully since it has been proven to perform even when the "dynamic duo" are tanking the rest of the economy. 40 billion shares with millions traded every session means there is enough liquidity to get in and get out any day. Pension schemes, unit trusts, sovereign wealth funds- they like such.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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murchr wrote:That's close to $1bn UPDATE $1bn = ksh 999.999bn +1 Not Ksh 99.99bn +1 The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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young wrote:murchr wrote:That's close to $1bn UPDATE $1bn = ksh 999.999bn +1 Not Ksh 99.99bn +1 1usd = 100 ksh Snap this is a shilling not Naira "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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murchr wrote:That's close to $1bn Yes you are right, as I have cross checked again . The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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murchr wrote:young wrote:murchr wrote:That's close to $1bn UPDATE $1bn = ksh 999.999bn +1 Not Ksh 99.99bn +1 1usd = 100 ksh Snap this is a shilling not Naira Kuwa mpole.. He's old
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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