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Speculating in cryptocurrencies: A rough approach
S.Mutaga III
#21 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 1:11:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
sparkly wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
The $3,000 is less than 10% of my portfolio. Therefore, I am ready to experiment with it in very high risk ventures like cryptocurrencies. I am not seasoned in speculation but you know what they say, nothing ventured, nothing gained.


I am also willing to experiment in cryptos but not with my own money. Since you have the money and the risk appetite I am willing to contribute my labour for a piece of profit. In other words, you employ me to trade cryptos.

I dont have the money to risk in crypto's mate. Just that $3,000 which I will use to speculate on my own. I suggest that you find a willing investor/speculator who is loaded.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
obiero
#22 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 3:55:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Mukiri wrote:
Another word of advice, learnt from Wazua .. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered! Take profits!

When target is realized, don't be too greedy trying to compound returns. 50% isn't too bad. In circa 6 months you probably will have your 300k+, as 50% profits.. take it. I use mine to buy back BTC at least expected price. This I learnt from a trader I revere, who at the height of 20k sold everything, bought among other things an AMD (which he videos from) and set a buy order for BTC 2k. Let your other 50% make more money.. That way, if it all goes bottom-up, you've really lost nothing.

Let me help @Obiero by leaving this here https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

Thanks for the share @mukiri

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
chiaroscuro
#23 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 12:24:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,134
Location: Nairobi
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
why are people so indifferent about bitcion.there's no difference in the way you invest in stocks with the way you invest in bitcion.when i pull out a bitcoin chart and compare it with a nse chart the same technical analysis methods are applicable on both charts.BTC is here to stay.the more people realize it the better.


Really?

What is the current EPS of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/E Ratio of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/B Ratio of Bitcoin?
wukan
#24 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 12:37:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,568
chiaroscuro wrote:
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
why are people so indifferent about bitcion.there's no difference in the way you invest in stocks with the way you invest in bitcion.when i pull out a bitcoin chart and compare it with a nse chart the same technical analysis methods are applicable on both charts.BTC is here to stay.the more people realize it the better.


Really?

What is the current EPS of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/E Ratio of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/B Ratio of Bitcoin?


I'm sure this how banks/creditors lost money lending to Nakumatt relying on EPS, cash growth projections, growth forecasts. Projections, models, ratios and other math algos mean nothing. Prices are nothing but signals to you the owner of capital 'deal or no deal'. You just have to feel the rhythm of market.
chiaroscuro
#25 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 12:42:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,134
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
chiaroscuro wrote:
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
why are people so indifferent about bitcion.there's no difference in the way you invest in stocks with the way you invest in bitcion.when i pull out a bitcoin chart and compare it with a nse chart the same technical analysis methods are applicable on both charts.BTC is here to stay.the more people realize it the better.


Really?

What is the current EPS of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/E Ratio of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/B Ratio of Bitcoin?


I'm sure this how banks/creditors lost money lending to Nakumatt relying on EPS, cash growth projections, growth forecasts. Projections, models, ratios and other math algos mean nothing. Prices are nothing but signals to you the owner of capital 'deal or no deal'. You just have to feel the rhythm of market.


I was responding to the allegation that analysis of bitcoins is the same as that of shares.

Nevertheless, "You just have to feel the rhythm of the market"? Really?

True; SOME banks lost money in Nakumatt, but have you looked at the accounts of THOSE banks? The all made profits. You cannot use the outcome of one failed borrower to conclude that "...EPS, cash growth projections, growth forecasts. Projections, models, ratios and other math algos mean nothing..."
wukan
#26 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 2:46:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,568
chiaroscuro wrote:
wukan wrote:
chiaroscuro wrote:
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
why are people so indifferent about bitcion.there's no difference in the way you invest in stocks with the way you invest in bitcion.when i pull out a bitcoin chart and compare it with a nse chart the same technical analysis methods are applicable on both charts.BTC is here to stay.the more people realize it the better.


Really?

What is the current EPS of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/E Ratio of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/B Ratio of Bitcoin?


I'm sure this how banks/creditors lost money lending to Nakumatt relying on EPS, cash growth projections, growth forecasts. Projections, models, ratios and other math algos mean nothing. Prices are nothing but signals to you the owner of capital 'deal or no deal'. You just have to feel the rhythm of market.


I was responding to the allegation that analysis of bitcoins is the same as that of shares.

Nevertheless, "You just have to feel the rhythm of the market"? Really?

True; SOME banks lost money in Nakumatt, but have you looked at the accounts of THOSE banks? The all made profits. You cannot use the outcome of one failed borrower to conclude that "...EPS, cash growth projections, growth forecasts. Projections, models, ratios and other math algos mean nothing..."


I was illustrating how those tools can sometimes not be useful. The use of models has messed up price signals in post QE world. E.g. banks(not necessarily local banks) are not marking their assets on the books to markets instead they mark to models. So the bank will lend to nakumatt on the model of the future financials. In the market nakumatt may be worth nothing but the bank still may keep marking to model. Bank may report to you a profit with nothing to back it up, that's why your first hand knowledge of the market is more useful. That's how most of the debt in the world is nowadays operating. In a world of derivatives it's all smoke and mirrors. Same applies to cryptos.

Models break down as Long-Term Capital Management learnt the hard way.
obiero
#27 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 5:33:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
chiaroscuro wrote:
wukan wrote:
chiaroscuro wrote:
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
why are people so indifferent about bitcion.there's no difference in the way you invest in stocks with the way you invest in bitcion.when i pull out a bitcoin chart and compare it with a nse chart the same technical analysis methods are applicable on both charts.BTC is here to stay.the more people realize it the better.


Really?

What is the current EPS of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/E Ratio of Bitcoin?
What is the current P/B Ratio of Bitcoin?


I'm sure this how banks/creditors lost money lending to Nakumatt relying on EPS, cash growth projections, growth forecasts. Projections, models, ratios and other math algos mean nothing. Prices are nothing but signals to you the owner of capital 'deal or no deal'. You just have to feel the rhythm of market.


I was responding to the allegation that analysis of bitcoins is the same as that of shares.

Nevertheless, "You just have to feel the rhythm of the market"? Really?

True; SOME banks lost money in Nakumatt, but have you looked at the accounts of THOSE banks? The all made profits. You cannot use the outcome of one failed borrower to conclude that "...EPS, cash growth projections, growth forecasts. Projections, models, ratios and other math algos mean nothing..."


I was illustrating how those tools can sometimes not be useful. The use of models has messed up price signals in post QE world. E.g. banks(not necessarily local banks) are not marking their assets on the books to markets instead they mark to models. So the bank will lend to nakumatt on the model of the future financials. In the market nakumatt may be worth nothing but the bank still may keep marking to model. Bank may report to you a profit with nothing to back it up, that's why your first hand knowledge of the market is more useful. That's how most of the debt in the world is nowadays operating. In a world of derivatives it's all smoke and mirrors. Same applies to cryptos.

Models break down as Long-Term Capital Management learnt the hard way.

@cornelius you are fundamentally wrong about analysis of bitcoin in comparison to securities

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
S.Mutaga III
#28 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 7:14:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
This market is crazy. Insane swings. 3 days later and the portfolio is already up 14%. I wouldn't be surprised to check after another three days only to find 50% gone. It is extremely volatile.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
ngapat
#29 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 9:43:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 874
The reason i invested in cryptocurrencies is the technology behind them. Blockchain technology has been tipped to be a revolutionary technology that will change the way we do alot of things. Its being compared to the discovery of internet in the early 90's.
These are the early stages of development of the technology and developers are busy trying to harness the power of blockchain.
I hate cryptos that do not have a problem solving project behind them and those whose purpose is only to serve as a currency, bitcoin included. Usually i buy bitcoins and convert them to altcoins with solid projects behind them
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
Stiffler
#30 Posted : Thursday, April 12, 2018 10:04:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/7/2017
Posts: 186
Location: Nairobi
Is Bitcoin being pumped. Billion dollars within a few hours...?! Out of nowhere..?!
11% Gain in 24 hours
Mukiri
#31 Posted : Friday, April 13, 2018 7:36:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
S.Mutaga III wrote:
This market is crazy. Insane swings. 3 days later and the portfolio is already up 14%. I wouldn't be surprised to check after another three days only to find 50% gone. It is extremely volatile.

Classic case of FOMOLaughing out loudly

Remember, try not be greedy. Set target, once realized, take profit, then SOBERLY set another.

I put up a link a while ago. The same market shed off 70%, and can easily do more. The forces are still with in play. Stay sober

Proverbs 19:21
Mukiri
#32 Posted : Friday, April 13, 2018 7:40:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Stiffler wrote:
Is Bitcoin being pumped. Billion dollars within a few hours...?! Out of nowhere..?!
11% Gain in 24 hours

But si news is awash with big money in play? The worst is Soros. I'd very very afraid

Proverbs 19:21
obiero
#33 Posted : Friday, April 13, 2018 9:14:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Mukiri wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
This market is crazy. Insane swings. 3 days later and the portfolio is already up 14%. I wouldn't be surprised to check after another three days only to find 50% gone. It is extremely volatile.

Classic case of FOMOLaughing out loudly

Remember, try not be greedy. Set target, once realized, take profit, then SOBERLY set another.

I put up a link a while ago. The same market shed off 70%, and can easily do more. The forces are still with in play. Stay sober

Stay woke

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
S.Mutaga III
#34 Posted : Friday, April 13, 2018 10:43:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Mukiri wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
This market is crazy. Insane swings. 3 days later and the portfolio is already up 14%. I wouldn't be surprised to check after another three days only to find 50% gone. It is extremely volatile.

Classic case of FOMOLaughing out loudly

Remember, try not be greedy. Set target, once realized, take profit, then SOBERLY set another.

I put up a link a while ago. The same market shed off 70%, and can easily do more. The forces are still with in play. Stay sober

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. However, I will keep a very keen eye on my choices and exit at the slightest sign of trouble.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
Ryko
#35 Posted : Friday, April 13, 2018 11:01:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/27/2016
Posts: 274
Location: Pub
Where is @Obiero
You must have had a good February & March. Now its time for the bitcoin maximalists to begin waking up from their cocoons so that they can begin urinating on all the bitcoin threads in Wazua.
I work so I can afford the amount of alcohol required to continue going to work
obiero
#36 Posted : Friday, April 13, 2018 11:48:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Ryko wrote:
Where is @Obiero
You must have had a good February & March. Now its time for the bitcoin maximalists to begin waking up from their cocoons so that they can begin urinating on all the bitcoin threads in Wazua.

Hehe. Im here @ryko.. Whats new?

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
S.Mutaga III
#37 Posted : Sunday, April 15, 2018 6:52:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#


Activity 2:
Sale of BNB at $13.15
Profit from activity 2 = 10% or roughly $100.
Activity 3:
Bought Substratum at $0.06 using $1100 obtained from activity 2.
Reason for the sale: BNB was experiencing major resistance at prices above $13. Upon checking, it has tested the region thrice in the last month without breaking out. Substratum met the criteria explained in my first post so I bought it i.e rising price and increasing volumes to back it up.
CURRENT PORTFOLIO STATUS
1. Substratum:- $1,100
2. XVG: - $1,275
XVG has risen 27.59% since I bought it.
3. IOST: - $1,265
IOST has risen 26.59 since I bought it.
1100+1275+1265= $3,640
Total profitability = 21% gains in 6 days.
Happy Hunting
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
Ebenyo
#38 Posted : Monday, April 16, 2018 7:04:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#




Central bank warned kenyans about this scam.Its more of a pyramid scheme.
And of all wazuans i couldnt imagine you in this thing.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
obiero
#39 Posted : Monday, April 16, 2018 8:36:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#




Central bank warned kenyans about this scam.Its more of a pyramid scheme.
And of all wazuans i couldnt imagine you in this thing.

Neither did I think such a high calibre trader would venture into the murky crypto waters

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Mukiri
#40 Posted : Monday, April 16, 2018 10:00:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
obiero wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Central bank warned kenyans about this scam.Its more of a pyramid scheme.
And of all wazuans i couldnt imagine you in this thing.

Neither did I think such a high calibre trader would venture into the murky crypto waters

Laughing out loudly Reminds me when they also called MPesa fraud and took it to court. Currently at 325 billion dollars, I'm guessing you'd have the world listen to CBK? ICT Secretary Mucheru?

Proverbs 19:21
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