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Speculating in cryptocurrencies: A rough approach
snifadog
#301 Posted : Monday, August 24, 2020 2:27:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/6/2016
Posts: 165
Location: Nairobi
Jones the doomsday prophet will be crucified on this forum. after all the grief he gave the wave theory chap, things are about to come back full circle
Jon Jones
#302 Posted : Monday, August 24, 2020 7:20:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
snifadog wrote:
Jones the doomsday prophet will be crucified on this forum. after all the grief he gave the wave theory chap, things are about to come back full circle

Big and obvious bearish divergence on the daily chart. Two massive support levels at $9500 and $10500. We should test at least one of these levels before 15th September. In an extreme case, the $9500. I will wait and buy alts down there from panicking sellers Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

I assume that you are holding some heavy bags right now. You will regret not selling them when my prophesy comes true. Hopefully you won't panic-sell at that time (very hard not to when you will be sweating bullets) and hodl for the market to resume the uptrend. If you decide to hold, don't get shaken out.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
Jon Jones
#303 Posted : Thursday, August 27, 2020 8:23:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
Red day.

Retail "investors"/traders are getting their nuts clipped Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
mamilli
#304 Posted : Sunday, August 30, 2020 11:05:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 249
Location: Nairobi
YAMv2(most likely unaudited code again) already out and up circa 90% afew days after v1 debacle.One of these DeFi projects will birth a monumental exit scam the scale of Bitconnect.

Meanwhile BTC ranges as ALTS rip,perfect scenario to stack your sats.
Never lose your POSITION in a bull market.

BTFD.
Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
sl8r
#305 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2020 12:44:08 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/20/2010
Posts: 69
If anybody is looking to dabble in some bitcoin or just DCA into it, you can give me a shout using the links below. It will be quick and easy and you can begin with as little as Ksh 1000

hodlhodl.com
https://hodlhodl.com/offers/RB7hyzTRqYwXV6tA

Binance https://c2c.binance.com/...c82c45b7afe61c9338aa3e2b
Jon Jones
#306 Posted : Wednesday, September 02, 2020 10:37:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
Bag holders got their nuts clipped again today. It is like a bad dream for retail Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
mamilli
#307 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2020 11:21:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 249
Location: Nairobi
YOLOd into liquidity mining afew days ago.Currently in the SHUSHI kitchen with BAND-osaurus and Aave-boar on the menu awaiting to rug-pull Uniswap lol! Just when you thought ICOs were risky,but yours truly is willing to take one for the team.
Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
Jon Jones
#308 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2020 2:05:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
mamilli wrote:
YOLOd into liquidity mining afew days ago.Currently in the SHUSHI kitchen with BAND-osaurus and Aave-boar on the menu awaiting to rug-pull Uniswap lol! Just when you thought ICOs were risky,but yours truly is willing to take one for the team.

I cashed out around 20th August when my analysis revealed that the uptrend was over. Two weeks later, the market has not moved an inch. I am bearish in the immediate short term on bitcoin (and alts by extension) with an interim downward target of $10,500, and full target of $9,700. I don't have a short position because I can't trade against the macro bullish trend. So, I am in cash for the next week or two. I am obviously looking out in case the trend changes back to bullish because I may be wrong. However, I maintain my bearish short term bias until the charts tell me otherwise.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
Jon Jones
#309 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2020 4:00:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
Nobody believes that they are the dumb money until they lose a substantial amount of $$$. I also fall into the dumb money category on some occasions. I told you guys that the smart $$$ exited two weeks ago as I did. If your P&L has been bleeding especially in the last few days, you can only blame yourselves for buying other people's bags and paying their mortgages. I tried to warn you in the spirit of wazua but as always, I was labelled "prophet of doom". Now it is like a bad dream for most of you guys here and it can get worse. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

The retail trader depends on pure luck for both entries and exits. Therefore, a retail trader has a 1/4 chance of making money in one trade. His odds reduce as the number of trades increase.

Probability of having a right entry is 1/2.

Probability of having a right exit is 1/2.

Probability of 1 profitable trade is 1/2*1/2 = 1/4

That simple math is why most retail traders can't win.

Consider this....most retail traders that got lucky in 2017 gave back most of that money in 2018. Luck can only take you so far. So, if you are not a professional trader, don't sell your cows or houses for crypto because odds are against you. Take care guys.

Example: @rwitre bought OXT @$0.65. Today, it is trading at @$0.37. That is a 43% draw-down. @rwitre will have to make 75% return to get back to where he started. I hope he managed the risk well because if you lose over 30% of your equity in any way, the odds of ever recovering that money are close to nil.

Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
Jon Jones
#310 Posted : Thursday, September 03, 2020 6:39:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
Interim target met at $10,500. That was quick Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
Jon Jones
#311 Posted : Friday, September 04, 2020 3:25:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
Price crashed to $9981. This is a good price level to start buying back people's bags. The local bottom may possibly be in or close. Time to start accumulating slowly. Thank you for the discount retail traders. Without you guys trading would not be profitable Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
snifadog
#312 Posted : Friday, September 04, 2020 9:12:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/6/2016
Posts: 165
Location: Nairobi
good call. crypto is used to these 20% pullbacks on the ride to the top. alts have not been slaughtered the way it used to be in 17/18. trading will net you 20/30% here and there but hodling the right coin can get you 20/30x. let's talk at year end.
Jon Jones
#313 Posted : Friday, September 04, 2020 12:07:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
snifadog wrote:
good call. crypto is used to these 20% pullbacks on the ride to the top. alts have not been slaughtered the way it used to be in 17/18. trading will net you 20/30% here and there but hodling the right coin can get you 20/30x. let's talk at year end.

A 30% crash in BTC is a 50% crash in ALTs. There may be some room for further downside but not by much. Maybe to 9500-9700. I agree with you that holding is the best approach for retail traders. Personally, I prefer short term swing trading because that 50% discount in alts compounded produces alpha. Between 7th July and 20th August, the average person holding ALTs made 50% return. I made 353% return. So for me, short term swing trading makes more money. It gives me a smooth equity curve with very little drawdowns. Hodling through these crashes and watching your P&L dip by 50% is psychologically challenging and not many retail traders can handle that. LINK crashed from $20 to $10. Anyone who buys now makes 100% return when the holder gets nothing/breaks even if it rallies back to $20. @rwitre's OXT crashed 63% from its local high. Lastly, I agree with you that mom and pop traders should just hodl through the crashes because thats their best chance of making money. They would underperform the market by trading in and out of coins.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
ngapat
#314 Posted : Friday, September 04, 2020 8:01:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 873
Eos defi projects developing quietly. Yfi kind of project is now mining dmd tokens on Eos blockchain, max supply is 30k coins same ethereum's YFI. Watch out also for defibox(Box), defisnetwork(Dfs) and organix(Ogx)

Tron sun projects also started mining sun tokens not forgetting also equilibrium is launching its defi project on polkadot.

Hehe, think im now becoming a crypto pro
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
Jon Jones
#315 Posted : Saturday, September 05, 2020 7:37:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
ngapat wrote:
Eos defi projects developing quietly. Yfi kind of project is now mining dmd tokens on Eos blockchain, max supply is 30k coins same ethereum's YFI. Watch out also for defibox(Box), defisnetwork(Dfs) and organix(Ogx)

Tron sun projects also started mining sun tokens not forgetting also equilibrium is launching its defi project on polkadot.

Hehe, think im now becoming a crypto pro

Unless you are a programmer/cryptographer/techie, fundamentals are almost useless when trading. However, if you are a long term investor, you could get big gains in future by spotting opportunities early. The same way most pharmacists don't make money from pharmacy stocks but wallstreet traders and investors do.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
snifadog
#316 Posted : Saturday, September 05, 2020 12:46:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/6/2016
Posts: 165
Location: Nairobi
ngapat wrote:
Eos defi projects developing quietly. Yfi kind of project is now mining dmd tokens on Eos blockchain, max supply is 30k coins same ethereum's YFI. Watch out also for defibox(Box), defisnetwork(Dfs) and organix(Ogx)

Tron sun projects also started mining sun tokens not forgetting also equilibrium is launching its defi project on polkadot.

Hehe, think im now becoming a crypto pro


stop shilling your heavy bags mister Laughing out loudly Shame on you
Jon Jones
#317 Posted : Sunday, September 06, 2020 3:44:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
mamilli wrote:
YOLOd into liquidity mining afew days ago.Currently in the SHUSHI kitchen with BAND-osaurus and Aave-boar on the menu awaiting to rug-pull Uniswap lol! Just when you thought ICOs were risky,but yours truly is willing to take one for the team.

-88% in 5 days. You need to make 12X return just to break even. Pole mblo. This one clipped you badly.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
mamilli
#318 Posted : Sunday, September 06, 2020 9:11:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 249
Location: Nairobi
Jon Jones wrote:
mamilli wrote:
YOLOd into liquidity mining afew days ago.Currently in the SHUSHI kitchen with BAND-osaurus and Aave-boar on the menu awaiting to rug-pull Uniswap lol! Just when you thought ICOs were risky,but yours truly is willing to take one for the team.

-88% in 5 days. You need to make 12X return just to break even. Pole mblo. This one clipped you badly.


LOL! Inakaa hii maneno hushikanishi.Anyway in yield farming,you provide funds in liquidity pools of either LENDING/DEX protocols and in return you earn rewards from the accrued platform fees.The rewards are essentially AIR DROPS of native governance tokens in my case SUSHI(hio jina jo!).Some find value in "governance" tokens but I don't thus I sell them on daily basis.APYs are usually insane (>1000%) been off loading around 100 sushi per day.Are there risks? yes,some very significant but I'll let you research on that.
Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
Jon Jones
#319 Posted : Sunday, September 06, 2020 12:58:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
mamilli wrote:
Jon Jones wrote:
mamilli wrote:
YOLOd into liquidity mining afew days ago.Currently in the SHUSHI kitchen with BAND-osaurus and Aave-boar on the menu awaiting to rug-pull Uniswap lol! Just when you thought ICOs were risky,but yours truly is willing to take one for the team.

-88% in 5 days. You need to make 12X return just to break even. Pole mblo. This one clipped you badly.


LOL! Inakaa hii maneno hushikanishi.Anyway in yield farming,you provide funds in liquidity pools of either LENDING/DEX protocols and in return you earn rewards from the accrued platform fees.The rewards are essentially AIR DROPS of native governance tokens in my case SUSHI(hio jina jo!).Some find value in "governance" tokens but I don't thus I sell them on daily basis.APYs are usually insane (>1000%) been off loading around 100 sushi per day.Are there risks? yes,some very significant but I'll let you research on that.

How convenient Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
mamilli
#320 Posted : Sunday, September 06, 2020 2:17:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 249
Location: Nairobi
ngapat wrote:
Eos defi projects developing quietly. Yfi kind of project is now mining dmd tokens on Eos blockchain, max supply is 30k coins same ethereum's YFI. Watch out also for defibox(Box), defisnetwork(Dfs) and organix(Ogx)

Tron sun projects also started mining sun tokens not forgetting also equilibrium is launching its defi project on polkadot.

Hehe, think im now becoming a crypto pro


DeFi outside Ethereum will be hard to sell,liquidity will always attract more liquidity.But if the pumpamentals are aligned,take the swing.DeFi aside,am convinced of one thing this bull cycle, Polkadot will melt faces.
Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
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