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KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
VituVingiSana
#101 Posted : Wednesday, May 09, 2018 7:49:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
heri wrote:
@vvs, when will KK close the share register for dividends

I do not know. I will let you know when I find out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#102 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 10:12:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
Tik tok 20
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#103 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 11:44:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
I am not a seller at 20. I think the EPS will exceed (ceteris paribus) 2.50 for 2018 now that the junk (KPRL, Segman) has been cleaned out in 2017.
I kept the faith smile in Ohana's stewardship. Now he needs to sell KK at 25+ Applause Applause Applause

It's a tough industry. I was also a fan of Segman but he became greedy with hedges. It's a travesty he got paid 700mn for running the firm down!
Ohana seems to have stayed away from hedging and does a lot of Inventory Management.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#104 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 11:47:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I am not a seller at 20. I think the EPS will exceed (ceteris paribus) 2.50 in 2018 now that the junk (KPRL, Segman) has been cleaned out in 2017.
I kept the faith ;-) in Ohana's stewardship. Now he needs to sell KK at 25+

Applause Applause you beat me in optimism ...on Kk your words are like a constitution
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#105 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 12:18:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I am not a seller at 20. I think the EPS will exceed (ceteris paribus) 2.50 in 2018 now that the junk (KPRL, Segman) has been cleaned out in 2017.
I kept the faith ;-) in Ohana's stewardship. Now he needs to sell KK at 25+

Applause Applause you beat me in optimism ...on Kk your words are like a constitution

Ceteris Paribus. If the prices of oil remain high, GoK may defer the VAT on fuel. It's about politics.
Fuel consumption is inelastic to a high degree. Folks will economize, make fewer trips, use more public transport, etc BUT the usage may reduce just not a huge drop.

KK is a strong player with a strong balance sheet and support from many financiers. I think smaller players will be squeezed out OR they will start evading taxes. This might be a good time for KK to pick up more stations to maintain (not grow) volumes.

My "predictions" (ceteris paribus) for 2018 which can easily turn out to be WRONG on KK
- Local (KE) volumes (fuel) will be maintained
- More local (KE) stations will be acquired/rebranded
- Growth in LPG volume sales
- Diluted EPS (with Ohana's 88mn (5%) share options) should be 2.50 [I hope for 2.75+ but the higher oil prices will hurt]
- Some issues/problems with the app. Teething problems.
- Increased financing costs driven by higher prices
- Loss in Burundi
- Breakeven to barely profitable in Ethiopia since KK has shed off many poorly performing stations.
- Net debt (loans less inventory) will not increase EXCEPT for an acquisition
- An acquisition may be announced in 2018 as KK has financiers lined up

EPS of 2.50 x 8 PER = 20 which is rather modest. It's not as much a bargain it was 1 year ago.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#106 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 6:58:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I am not a seller at 20. I think the EPS will exceed (ceteris paribus) 2.50 in 2018 now that the junk (KPRL, Segman) has been cleaned out in 2017.
I kept the faith ;-) in Ohana's stewardship. Now he needs to sell KK at 25+

Applause Applause you beat me in optimism ...on Kk your words are like a constitution


We believed this day will come, and it has. Thank you kk, thank you ohana.

Aly khan has tweeted about rajabaly brothers stake building to be behind this
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Angelica _ann
#107 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 7:29:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Congrats guys on KK, you kept the faith from about 7 bob. It was patience at its best. Fundamentals don't lie!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mlennyma
#108 Posted : Tuesday, May 15, 2018 10:21:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I am not a seller at 20. I think the EPS will exceed (ceteris paribus) 2.50 in 2018 now that the junk (KPRL, Segman) has been cleaned out in 2017.
I kept the faith ;-) in Ohana's stewardship. Now he needs to sell KK at 25+

Applause Applause you beat me in optimism ...on Kk your words are like a constitution


We believed this day will come, and it has. Thank you kk, thank you ohana.

Aly khan has tweeted about rajabaly brothers stake building to be behind this

who are this brothers? some details about them?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Ericsson
#109 Posted : Thursday, May 17, 2018 2:35:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,636
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
Congrats guys on KK, you kept the faith from about 7 bob. It was patience at its best. Fundamentals don't lie!!!


Reverse gear in motion
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Wondergirl
#110 Posted : Thursday, May 17, 2018 2:54:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Ericsson wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Congrats guys on KK, you kept the faith from about 7 bob. It was patience at its best. Fundamentals don't lie!!!


Reverse gear in motion

Good.
Shaking off speculators, a new floor will be made.
smile I'm learning, but do I say....
VituVingiSana
#111 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2018 2:58:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
The former Keiyo South MP, who died of kidney failure on July 11 last year aged 77, ceded all property he co-owned to his partners. He wished that any assets, both moveable and immovable, he co-owned with anyone should be left with the other partners, and in case of death, the estate or representatives of his business partners would get the entire share. Biwott’s secrecy, again, did not allow him to say how much he held in partnerships and who were his partners. “I bequeath and give all my share, right, title and interest to assets that I jointly own with any other person or persons upon my death to the other person or persons who are lawfully registered, named or designated as a joint owner of such assets,” he wrote.
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...-s-sh1-4-billion-secrets
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#112 Posted : Thursday, July 12, 2018 3:27:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
[quote=VituVingiSana]The former Keiyo South MP, who died of kidney failure on July 11 last year aged 77, ceded all property he co-owned to his partners. He wished that any assets, both moveable and immovable, he co-owned with anyone should be left with the other partners, and in case of death, the estate or representatives of his business partners would get the entire share. Biwott’s secrecy, again, did not allow him to say how much he held in partnerships and who were his partners. “I bequeath and give all my share, right, title and interest to assets that I jointly own with any other person or persons upon my death to the other person or persons who are lawfully registered, named or designated as a joint owner of such assets,” he wrote.
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...s-sh1-4-billion-secrets[/quote]

He registered properties jointly with his children and wives. In this case surviving partner gets the right of survirship. Guy is crafty.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#113 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2018 12:56:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The former Keiyo South MP, who died of kidney failure on July 11 last year aged 77, ceded all property he co-owned to his partners. He wished that any assets, both moveable and immovable, he co-owned with anyone should be left with the other partners, and in case of death, the estate or representatives of his business partners would get the entire share. Biwott’s secrecy, again, did not allow him to say how much he held in partnerships and who were his partners. “I bequeath and give all my share, right, title and interest to assets that I jointly own with any other person or persons upon my death to the other person or persons who are lawfully registered, named or designated as a joint owner of such assets,” he wrote.
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...s-sh1-4-billion-secrets


He registered properties jointly with his children and wives. In this case surviving partner gets the right of survirship. Guy is crafty.

I still have hope that his KK shares will be distributed to other shareholders Drool Drool Drool
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#114 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2018 7:33:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The former Keiyo South MP, who died of kidney failure on July 11 last year aged 77, ceded all property he co-owned to his partners. He wished that any assets, both moveable and immovable, he co-owned with anyone should be left with the other partners, and in case of death, the estate or representatives of his business partners would get the entire share. Biwott’s secrecy, again, did not allow him to say how much he held in partnerships and who were his partners. “I bequeath and give all my share, right, title and interest to assets that I jointly own with any other person or persons upon my death to the other person or persons who are lawfully registered, named or designated as a joint owner of such assets,” he wrote.
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...s-sh1-4-billion-secrets


He registered properties jointly with his children and wives. In this case surviving partner gets the right of survirship. Guy is crafty.

I still have hope that his KK shares will be distributed to other shareholders Drool Drool Drool


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I hadn't seen where you were going with this. But I believe the shares are/were held by a holding company so his partner on the holding company is the benefactor.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#115 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2018 9:04:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The former Keiyo South MP, who died of kidney failure on July 11 last year aged 77, ceded all property he co-owned to his partners. He wished that any assets, both moveable and immovable, he co-owned with anyone should be left with the other partners, and in case of death, the estate or representatives of his business partners would get the entire share. Biwott’s secrecy, again, did not allow him to say how much he held in partnerships and who were his partners. “I bequeath and give all my share, right, title and interest to assets that I jointly own with any other person or persons upon my death to the other person or persons who are lawfully registered, named or designated as a joint owner of such assets,” he wrote.
Read more at: https://www.standardmedi...s-sh1-4-billion-secrets


He registered properties jointly with his children and wives. In this case surviving partner gets the right of survirship. Guy is crafty.

I still have hope that his KK shares will be distributed to other shareholders Drool Drool Drool


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I hadn't seen where you were going with this. But I believe the shares are/were held by a holding company so his partner on the holding company is the benefactor.

Mimi ni "partner" pia! Laughing out loudly ... lakini, jokes aside, I think KK is up for sale given the majority shareholder has croaked and his family is "large" so it's unlikely to be united in forging a path forward...
One of his daughters, Rita, whose husband looked after NB's interests in KK, has given up her claim. The others might not be interested in KK the business as much as the cash.

After CFC's Jani croaked, the kids rapidly sold off the shares they inherited to Stanbic/SAHL.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#116 Posted : Sunday, July 22, 2018 3:39:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
Has the value of KK's assets in Ethiopia increased since Abiy became PM?

https://www.businessdail...4472-rey478z/index.html

1) Access to forex may be easier for importers. The Birr may take a hit but it's better to have "expensive" USD than no USD. We saw that in Kenya in the 90s.
2) There is a burst of euphoria in Ethiopia (like we had in 2003) and I hope KK can cash in, whether it means selling assets or an increase in fuel (imported) sold. This also applies to non-fuel sales.
3) Investment and confidence in the economy can lead to growth in opportunities for KK. I hope some of the stations can be upgraded or sold to generate a better ROI.

Exciting times for KK even though there are lots & lots of challenges...

https://messengerafrica....r-control-and-stability/
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#117 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 12:17:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
E.F.T pap
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#118 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 2:10:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
E.F.T pap

Applause Firms that make money and pay dividends. Hah! Some folks were asking why I own KK and not some “high flying” stocks that have been “turning around” for years! 😂
Ohana said during the AGM that he expects KK will have a great 1H 👍🏽
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#119 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 2:47:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
E.F.T pap

Applause Firms that make money and pay dividends. Hah! Some folks were asking why I own KK and not some “high flying” stocks that have been “turning around” for years! 😂
Ohana said during the AGM that he expects KK will have a great 1H 👍🏽


Kk, the gift that keeps on giving.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#120 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 3:52:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
E.F.T pap

Applause Firms that make money and pay dividends. Hah! Some folks were asking why I own KK and not some “high flying” stocks that have been “turning around” for years! 😂
Ohana said during the AGM that he expects KK will have a great 1H 👍🏽

Kk, the gift that keeps on giving.

Ohana said that whereas KK has a substantial jet A1 business, KK has no financial exposure to a certain airline known not to pay its suppliers on time Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
[I have no idea which one he is referring to Liar ]
It only supplies that airline after a payment has been made. COD. Applause Applause Applause

KK has tightened credit terms and yet has managed to grow sales.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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