Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Safaricom HY 2018
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
|
Ericsson wrote:murchr wrote: Happy for her but who will replace her? She is the engine behind Safaricom The manner in which it was reported in NTV news yesterday was like she was edged out of safaricom. Githeri media. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,050 Location: Nairobi
|
Good luck to her dealing with Magufuli. A (successful) Kenyan CEO of a UK controlled entity will piss off the Tanzanians. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/18/2008 Posts: 3,434 Location: Kerugoya
|
Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
|
Ericsson wrote:aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 I think they are raising valid concerns "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 I think they are raising valid concerns FY financial results will be announced in a month's time. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
|
Ericsson wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 I think they are raising valid concerns FY financial results will be announced in a month's time. If they outperform EPS for FY2018 will come at 1.4...buying at 32...PE is around 23...in FY2019 if they outperform EPS will be circa 1.6 for a PE of 20 at 32 and most likely a dividend yield of 4%...buying now is mere speculation...any negative sentiment on this counter will send a portfolio reeling in losses.
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
the deal wrote:Ericsson wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 I think they are raising valid concerns FY financial results will be announced in a month's time. If they outperform EPS for FY2018 will come at 1.4...buying at 32...PE is around 23...in FY2019 if they outperform EPS will be circa 1.6 for a PE of 20 at 32 and most likely a dividend yield of 4%...buying now is mere speculation...any negative sentiment on this counter will send a portfolio reeling in losses. Safari-com dividend yield normally ranges at about 3.5-4 at best.If you get at 3.9% you are very lucky. The PE normally plays around 22-25,so with a EPS of 1.4 multiply by PE of 25 gives you price of 35 on the higher end and lower end of 31. I've done a trend analysis from 2014 and that has been the behaviour. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
|
Ericsson wrote:the deal wrote:Ericsson wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 I think they are raising valid concerns FY financial results will be announced in a month's time. If they outperform EPS for FY2018 will come at 1.4...buying at 32...PE is around 23...in FY2019 if they outperform EPS will be circa 1.6 for a PE of 20 at 32 and most likely a dividend yield of 4%...buying now is mere speculation...any negative sentiment on this counter will send a portfolio reeling in losses. Safari-com dividend yield normally ranges at about 3.5-4 at best.If you get at 3.9% you are very lucky. The PE normally plays around 22-25,so with a EPS of 1.4 multiply by PE of 25 gives you price of 35 on the higher end and lower end of 31. I've done a trend analysis from 2014 and that has been the behaviour. 1. That's during MPESA's boom period... 2. Under negative sentiment environment...rolling/forward PE can drop below 20..overall paying 22X a firms earnings is not shrewd investing. 3. Highly doubt EPS of 1.4 will come next month...lets bet...I will send you a six pack of Windhoek Lager if it happens
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
the deal wrote:Ericsson wrote:the deal wrote:Ericsson wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 I think they are raising valid concerns FY financial results will be announced in a month's time. If they outperform EPS for FY2018 will come at 1.4...buying at 32...PE is around 23...in FY2019 if they outperform EPS will be circa 1.6 for a PE of 20 at 32 and most likely a dividend yield of 4%...buying now is mere speculation...any negative sentiment on this counter will send a portfolio reeling in losses. Safari-com dividend yield normally ranges at about 3.5-4 at best.If you get at 3.9% you are very lucky. The PE normally plays around 22-25,so with a EPS of 1.4 multiply by PE of 25 gives you price of 35 on the higher end and lower end of 31. I've done a trend analysis from 2014 and that has been the behaviour. 1. That's during MPESA's boom period... 2. Under negative sentiment environment...rolling/forward PE can drop below 20..overall paying 22X a firms earnings is not shrewd investing. 3. Highly doubt EPS of 1.4 will come next month...lets bet...I will send you a six pack of Windhoek Lager if it happens I was using 1.4 that you had stated,sasa umeiruka tena. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2015 Posts: 817
|
mimi na agali tu volume. citi can keep their bs to themselves......
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
|
Safaricom data and mpesa which have been the cash cow will soon face serious competitors "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
|
mlennyma wrote:Safaricom data and mpesa which have been the cash cow will soon face serious competitors On the contrary, mpesa is being rolled out to Africa and the world. Think out of the pond. Life is short. Live passionately.
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
According to Communication Authority of Kenya Q2 October to December 31 2017 Safaricom mkt share declined 2.8% Airtel increased 2.3% Telkom kenya increased by 0.6% Safaricom gained 100,000 to 29.5mn subscribers Airtel gained 1.2mn to 7.3mn subscribers Telkom kenya gained 400,000 to 3.8mn subscribers On the data segment Safaricom mkt share declined from 76% to 72.8% Airtel mkt share increased from 15.7 to 18.5% Telkom kenya increased from 7.3 to 7.8% Equitel declined from 0.7 to 0.6% Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
|
the deal wrote:Ericsson wrote:mlennyma wrote:Ericsson wrote:aemathenge wrote:Quote:Citi is worried that Safaricom has reached its peak and there’s no room left for growth — making it a bad choice for investors.
The stock, which recently touched an all-time high of Kshs 32.75, is up by more than 85% since March 2017.
According to Citi, the rally is more macro-driven than fundamental.
(These) Macro factors include:
One: Currency stability against devaluation of currencies in neighboring countries.
Two: Optimism over macro growth following completion of the presidential election cycle in October 2017.
Three: Lack of other quality assets for investors to consider.
Four: Fundamentally, confirmation in December 2017 from Airtel Africa that its operations in Kenya are one of the least successful
Five: and in early 2018 (confirmation?) from CA that the break-up of Safaricom is not an option being considered may have fueled investors’ confidence in the longer term prospects for Safaricom in the market. Source Link From The Kenyan Wallstreet Hao wameanguka mtihani,no sooner have they talked than we see safaricom heading towards 35 I think they are raising valid concerns FY financial results will be announced in a month's time. If they outperform EPS for FY2018 will come at 1.4...buying at 32...PE is around 23...in FY2019 if they outperform EPS will be circa 1.6 for a PE of 20 at 32 and most likely a dividend yield of 4%...buying now is mere speculation...any negative sentiment on this counter will send a portfolio reeling in losses. Mr Amos Kimunya and 2008 IPO handlers are to blame for this overvaluation situation.Ten years later and the scenerio is the same. They created 40 billion shares at kshs 5 each.These were too much. The only way out here is safaricom conpany to buy back some shares. Towards the goal of financial freedom
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
Ericsson wrote:According to Communication Authority of Kenya Q2 October to December 31 2017 Safaricom mkt share declined 2.8% Airtel increased 2.3% Telkom kenya increased by 0.6% Safaricom gained 100,000 to 29.5mn subscribers Airtel gained 1.2mn to 7.3mn subscribers Telkom kenya gained 400,000 to 3.8mn subscribers
On the data segment Safaricom mkt share declined from 76% to 72.8% Airtel mkt share increased from 15.7 to 18.5% Telkom kenya increased from 7.3 to 7.8% Equitel declined from 0.7 to 0.6% This was the period of the resist movement where airtel was a big beneficiary and safaricom loser Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 953 Location: Kenya
|
Penetrationwise, Safaricom has pretty much exhausted that avenue for growth and now has to rely on the 800,000 students who finish highschool every year and come out of boarding school to be active customers. They just need to start increasing their ARPU especially in data. Last year mobile data stood at around Ksh150 per month per customer. If they can double this then it will be a significant contribution. Mpesa its just 240 per customer. Their C2B, B2C, B2B and LNM still command a tiny share of the revenue so still so much room for growth despite competition. Cash transactions are still king. Their new business Safaricom home fibre is still in early adoption stages so it will be significant once they scale it up. For every 100,000 active customers they should make at least Ksh3 billion. The total market of homes connected to power is 6 million and growing. Currently Zuku and technology advancement is the only threat for that model. Safaricom is known for early adoption and 5G might be their solution to connecting more homes with their internet enable set top box. There wont be need for cable connections. Masoko wont be profitable in the near future or rather contribute anything significant. Even Songa may not be. Worldwide, music streaming platforms make losses because of the high fees they pay. When it comes to the money side of the business, Safaricom is VERY CASH RICH. One of their biggest cost is depreciation which stands at Ksh33 billion a year. That is a non cash expense. So they always have a lot of money to re-invest (ksh35billion) in the business and still pay shareholders a very high dividend (ksh30 billion last year excluding the ksh27 billion special dividend). This is a company guaranteed to pay dividends at a competitive level for the next number of years. I think its still a buy now (more of buy as much as you can now) then reduce its share of your purchase as years go by.
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
|
watesh wrote:Penetrationwise, Safaricom has pretty much exhausted that avenue for growth and now has to rely on the 800,000 students who finish highschool every year and come out of boarding school to be active customers. Most of these customers are being snapped by Telkom kenya,the period July to December 2017,Telkom gained 1mn subscribers according to CAK statistics.
They just need to start increasing their ARPU especially in data. Last year mobile data stood at around Ksh150 per month per customer. If they can double this then it will be a significant contribution. True and to do this they will also need to lower their data costs.Safaricom ksh.1,000 gives you 3GB while Telkom kenya it gives 6GB and Airtel 10GB,though for airtel it's erratic.
Mpesa its just 240 per customer. Their C2B, B2C, B2B and LNM still command a tiny share of the revenue so still so much room for growth despite competition. Cash transactions are still king. Mpesa will face new competition from T-kash
Their new business Safaricom home fibre is still in early adoption stages so it will be significant once they scale it up. For every 100,000 active customers they should make at least Ksh3 billion. The total market of homes connected to power is 6 million and growing. Currently Zuku and technology advancement is the only threat for that model. The most popular package is the ksh.2500 so 3bn is a fair estimate
Safaricom is known for early adoption and 5G might be their solution to connecting more homes with their internet enable set top box. There wont be need for cable connections. Bundle prices will be key here.
Masoko wont be profitable in the near future or rather contribute anything significant. Even Songa may not be. Worldwide, music streaming platforms make losses because of the high fees they pay. When it comes to the money side of the business, Safaricom is VERY CASH RICH. One of their biggest cost is depreciation which stands at Ksh33 billion a year. That is a non cash expense. So they always have a lot of money to re-invest (ksh35billion) in the business and still pay shareholders a very high dividend (ksh30 billion last year excluding the ksh27 billion special dividend). This is a company guaranteed to pay dividends at a competitive level for the next number of years. They should also think venturing outside kenya like making an acquisition in another territory of a telco like it's sister Vodacom
I think its still a buy now (more of buy as much as you can now) then reduce its share of your purchase as years go by. Though the share price appreciation won't be as rapid as beforeWealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 953 Location: Kenya
|
Ericsson wrote:watesh wrote:Penetrationwise, Safaricom has pretty much exhausted that avenue for growth and now has to rely on the 800,000 students who finish highschool every year and come out of boarding school to be active customers. Most of these customers are being snapped by Telkom kenya,the period July to December 2017,Telkom gained 1mn subscribers according to CAK statistics.
They just need to start increasing their ARPU especially in data. Last year mobile data stood at around Ksh150 per month per customer. If they can double this then it will be a significant contribution. True and to do this they will also need to lower their data costs.Safaricom ksh.1,000 gives you 3GB while Telkom kenya it gives 6GB and Airtel 10GB,though for airtel it's erratic.
Mpesa its just 240 per customer. Their C2B, B2C, B2B and LNM still command a tiny share of the revenue so still so much room for growth despite competition. Cash transactions are still king. Mpesa will face new competition from T-kash
Their new business Safaricom home fibre is still in early adoption stages so it will be significant once they scale it up. For every 100,000 active customers they should make at least Ksh3 billion. The total market of homes connected to power is 6 million and growing. Currently Zuku and technology advancement is the only threat for that model. The most popular package is the ksh.2500 so 3bn is a fair estimate
Safaricom is known for early adoption and 5G might be their solution to connecting more homes with their internet enable set top box. There wont be need for cable connections. Bundle prices will be key here.
Masoko wont be profitable in the near future or rather contribute anything significant. Even Songa may not be. Worldwide, music streaming platforms make losses because of the high fees they pay. When it comes to the money side of the business, Safaricom is VERY CASH RICH. One of their biggest cost is depreciation which stands at Ksh33 billion a year. That is a non cash expense. So they always have a lot of money to re-invest (ksh35billion) in the business and still pay shareholders a very high dividend (ksh30 billion last year excluding the ksh27 billion special dividend). This is a company guaranteed to pay dividends at a competitive level for the next number of years. They should also think venturing outside kenya like making an acquisition in another territory of a telco like it's sister Vodacom
I think its still a buy now (more of buy as much as you can now) then reduce its share of your purchase as years go by. Though the share price appreciation won't be as rapid as before One thing about Telkom is they have a limited capital to invest. People are so used to quality service provided by Safcom, so a mass migration to Telkom only makes it worse for their reputation since it strains their services. T Kash, they will have to spend billions in marketing. They dont have that so Mpesa will still be king for a while. I agree Safaricom need to lower their bundle prices, or better yet bring back 4G bundles. I think so far, the effect isnt much so they see no need. 5G will be a game changer and a telco will need a vast network to utilize it well. Safcom is the only one with the potential and they have began research yet the likes of Telkom havnt even paid for their 4G license. Given our choices at the NSE, only banks are as consistent as Safaricom
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/2/2012 Posts: 1,134 Location: Nairobi
|
Ebenyo wrote:Mr Amos Kimunya and 2008 IPO handlers are to blame for this overvaluation situation.Ten years later and the scenerio is the same. They created 40 billion shares at kshs 5 each.These were too much. The only way out here is safaricom conpany to buy back some shares. Say what? Rules of CMA & NSE: you cannot have IPO offering less than 25% of share capital.
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Safaricom HY 2018
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|