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Safaricom HY 2018
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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MadDoc wrote:Ericsson wrote:Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:As i had said, Safaricom has refused/defied the anticipated bullback!!! Since 2012, show me when TA showed that Safaricom will drop to a certain level and it obeyed????? It is TA guys who have been adjusting their positions upwards. be weary of a stock/security that refuses to retrace /pullback/bullback. a retracement from a TA perspective is always healthy for a stock coz the stock recharges to reach newer height now that it has new buyers (who entered during pullback) when the pullback comes for a stock that had refused to pullback for a long period of time we know how it goes....look at bitcoin now. @Cornelius That philosophy isn't universal. Before tying it to a specific counter look at the fundamentals of the counter otherwise kwenda nayo TAs still waiting for Safaricom at 15.  @Ericsson what @Cornelius Vanderbilt is saying is true, better a stock that has pullbacks (yes pullback  ) once in awhile. Otherwise it will fall like a hot knife it some fundamental change and masses decide to jump out. The fall will be crazy. However Safaricom has been stubborn and has defied majority if not all pullback predictions by #TA. Mimi bado niko ndani strong In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Angelica _ann wrote:MadDoc wrote:Ericsson wrote:Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:As i had said, Safaricom has refused/defied the anticipated bullback!!! Since 2012, show me when TA showed that Safaricom will drop to a certain level and it obeyed????? It is TA guys who have been adjusting their positions upwards. be weary of a stock/security that refuses to retrace /pullback/bullback. a retracement from a TA perspective is always healthy for a stock coz the stock recharges to reach newer height now that it has new buyers (who entered during pullback) when the pullback comes for a stock that had refused to pullback for a long period of time we know how it goes....look at bitcoin now. @Cornelius That philosophy isn't universal. Before tying it to a specific counter look at the fundamentals of the counter otherwise kwenda nayo TAs still waiting for Safaricom at 15. @Ericsson what @Cornelius Vanderbilt is saying is true, better a stock that has pullbacks (yes pullback ) once in awhile. Otherwise it will fall like a hot knife it some fundamental change and masses decide to jump out. The fall will be crazy. However Safaricom has been stubborn and has defied majority if not all pullback predictions by #TA. Mimi bado niko ndani strong The pullback of safaricom happened a year ago when it fell from 21 to 16. If cornelius didn't jump in too bad,the bus has left Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Appreciation year to date @11.2% Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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https://www.businessdail...12672-helh2lz/index.htmlWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/21/2013 Posts: 72 Location: KENYA
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Ericsson wrote:https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Analysys-Mason-Safaricom-M-Pesa-split-dominance/4003102-4312672-helh2lz/index.html Dropping the attempt to split SCOM is a nice save for the green giant, but some of the other recommendations in that report could impact them in the long-run. Sharing of towers, no preferential loyalty programmes, national roaming, and the impending interoperability on mobile money.  At least their next cash-cow, retail broadband is not under such scrutiny yet. I wish Bob was in full health and pushing things. Some of this stuff only responds to good-old lobbying. “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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I hear WhatsApp is testing money transfer in India. Anyone with more details
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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heri wrote:I hear WhatsApp is testing money transfer in India. Anyone with more details Facebook is testing theirs here in Kenya. I'm part of the trial team and it's a pretty good service
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75. This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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heri wrote:I hear WhatsApp is testing money transfer in India. Anyone with more details WhatsApp money transfer India
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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obiero wrote:heri wrote:I hear WhatsApp is testing money transfer in India. Anyone with more details Facebook is testing theirs here in Kenya. I'm part of the trial team and it's a pretty good service Google revamps it's Android pay and Google Wallet into the unified GOOGLE PAY SEND
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,054 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/3/2015 Posts: 118 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. So Book values can be fudged. Its in a different sector. Compare BRK.A share price of $300,000 vs book value of 190,000 Also compare AAPL $171 vs book of $27. Different metrics. But yes I agree Saf is currently pricey
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management @vvs,thats a glimpse at difference between long term and short term investment. The former is about value while the latter is about hype and sentiments. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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Ericsson wrote:Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000. This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Ebenyo wrote:Ericsson wrote:Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000. This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation. Wrong its more than that. Use the value of the last audited Full year results It was about 79bn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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Ericsson wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Ericsson wrote:Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000. This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation. Wrong its more than that. Use the value of the last audited Full year results It was about 79bn i have used the HY 18 results which is the latest. Your point is if safaricom will be sold while i was talking about liquidation. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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