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ARM HY2017
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Fyatu - ππΌππΌππΌ
Very helpful. Thanks!
Any comparisons (quality) between ARM and Bamburi?
Bamburi cement any time
I hope the next set of projects undertaken by KE and TZ use ARM cement!
That is a dream.
Niko ndani!!!! This is a long-term play for me it seems based on the potential. Hehe.. Penny stocker Cement companies are too many for the Kenyan market. Mergers and consolidation is needed. ARM became a victim of the competition. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Fyatu - ππΌππΌππΌ
Very helpful. Thanks!
Any comparisons (quality) between ARM and Bamburi?
I hope the next set of projects undertaken by KE and TZ use ARM cement!
Niko ndani!!!! This is a long-term play for me it seems based on the potential. Hehe.. Penny stocker @Obiero I can swear by your KQ's badly mutilated appendix that @VVS is gonna make huge returns vis-a-vis your dead national carrier. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, βMy Father is always working, and so am I.β
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Fyatu wrote:Karibu sana mzee VVS. I cannot comment authoritatively on quality but overall there is this perceived notion that bamburi is the best. Ask any random fundi and they will tell you bamburi ni number one(perhaps due to innovation and superior R&D). Remember they recently launched air tight cement for road construction...
What i also know is that bamburi has state captured Kenya and Uganda and they know something we don't.. the pie is big enough for all players and that is why we now have Ndovu cement company and Rai cement huko western Kenya. Finally clinker is a very hot commodity whose current supply cannot quench demand. ARM is baba yao when it comes to clinker in EAC The clinker play is the only attractive aspect of ARM. Everything else leaves alot to be desired. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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My cost is 3.70 (& I will add more at current prices given the recent changes) but there's also the opportunity cost. 1) The exit of PHP as a positive since it allows the new broom to sweep clean via announcing another loss for FY 2018. My calculations include a loss for FY 2018 equal to FY 2017. The Deputy CEO and chairman are also out. 2) Clinker production seems to be back on track in TZ with the availability of coal so the losses stop or are reduced. 3) The financing (working capital) can help ARM supply its customers in Kenya. 4) There is scope for a Strategic Investor who will probably come in at a premium to 5/- (Or so I hope but hope is not a strategy) 5) No dividends in the near future 6) Potential debt conversion of the MTN and CPs which reduces the interest cost but does mean more shares are issued. The market is over-supplied and there are no NEW mega-projects in the near future. It will be a tough time for ARM but at 5/- per share, I am willing to ride the roller-coaster! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:My cost is 3.70 (& I will add more at current prices given the recent changes) but there's also the opportunity cost.
1) The exit of PHP as a positive since it allows the new broom to sweep clean via announcing another loss for FY 2018. My calculations include a loss for FY 2018 equal to FY 2017. The Deputy CEO and chairman are also out.
2) Clinker production seems to be back on track in TZ with the availability of coal so the losses stop or are reduced.
3) The financing (working capital) can help ARM supply its customers in Kenya.
4) There is scope for a Strategic Investor who will probably come in at a premium to 5/- (Or so I hope but hope is not a strategy)
5) No dividends in the near future
6) Potential debt conversion of the MTN and CPs which reduces the interest cost but does mean more shares are issued.
The market is over-supplied and there are no NEW mega-projects in the near future. It will be a tough time for ARM but at 5/- per share, I am willing to ride the roller-coaster! You are starting to take on risk my old friend. Good luck with the aggressive strategy
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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Trades at 5.10 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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VituVingiSana wrote:Trades at 5.10 Hehehe...barrier broken. Now to Kes 6
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 7/16/2018 Posts: 23
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Good one for the patient. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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xxxxx wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Trades at 5.10 Hehehe...barrier broken. Now to Kes 6 Twende kazi! Asante to @xxxxx and @fyatu for giving me answers to my queries on ARM. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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Is Paunrana really out? https://www.businessdail...5744-11ieuvr/index.html
Waiting for the 1H 2018 results but they have until 31st Oct to announce them. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:xxxxx wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Trades at 5.10 Hehehe...barrier broken. Now to Kes 6 Twende kazi! Asante to @xxxxx and @fyatu for giving me answers to my queries on ARM. 5.60 (+10% over yesterday) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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They promised to update us fully within 90 days of 31st May...therefore 31 August is their set timeline. But I'm reading that Paunrana sent a letter to sshareholders talking about his stepping down...... https://kenyanwallstreet.com/?p=23364
Either way, given that CDC has for starters disbursed the $4M for working capital, there's still lots of money to be made here by investors who appreciate that the share has been de-risked significantly. However, @Obiero must stay away.....still too risky for u 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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xxxxx wrote:They promised to update us fully within 90 days of 31st May...therefore 31 August is their set timeline. But I'm reading that Paunrana sent a letter to sshareholders talking about his stepping down...... https://kenyanwallstreet.com/?p=23364
Either way, given that CDC has for starters disbursed the $4M for working capital, there's still lots of money to be made here by investors who appreciate that the share has been de-risked significantly. However, @Obiero must stay away.....still too risky for u I'm away. But happy for those who are in the money
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:xxxxx wrote:They promised to update us fully within 90 days of 31st May...therefore 31 August is their set timeline. But I'm reading that Paunrana sent a letter to sshareholders talking about his stepping down...... https://kenyanwallstreet.com/?p=23364
Either way, given that CDC has for starters disbursed the $4M for working capital, there's still lots of money to be made here by investors who appreciate that the share has been de-risked significantly. However, @Obiero must stay away.....still too risky for u I'm away. But happy for those who are in the money NDAAAAANIIIIIfike 10. My logic (props to @xxxx and @fyatu) is that the NAV was 23/- at the end of FY 2017 but let's write down losses for FY 2018 and other clean-ups and payouts to the management. Let's say this is 13/- so we end up at 10/- but with an improving environment in TZ, a Strategic Investor could step in at 10/- within 2 years. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Quote:End of an era as Paunrana family loses grip on ARMMr Paunrana is set to relinquish his position after a management shake-up of the company whose fortunes have in recent years dipped sharply. βThe company is entering a new phase, from family-owned, family-managed, to institutional investor representation, to separation of management and board roles,β Mr Paunrana said in interview. In a letter, Mr Paunrana sought to assure shareholders and ARM staff that better days lay ahead for the company. βAs founder shareholder and entrepreneur, I will be an active board member and support the incoming CEO and the management team in strengthening stakeholder relationships with suppliers, customers and the government in all the three East African countries where we operate,β he said. Mr Paunrana sought to play down his exit in the Business Daily interview, even as observers reflected on the remarkable fall from glory of one of Kenyaβs most prominent business families. βThis is as per plan, as most founders employ (ha ha ha!) professional CEOs to run the day-to-day operations,β he said Thursday from the UK where he has travelled for business. Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:xxxxx wrote:They promised to update us fully within 90 days of 31st May...therefore 31 August is their set timeline. But I'm reading that Paunrana sent a letter to sshareholders talking about his stepping down...... https://kenyanwallstreet.com/?p=23364
Either way, given that CDC has for starters disbursed the $4M for working capital, there's still lots of money to be made here by investors who appreciate that the share has been de-risked significantly. However, @Obiero must stay away.....still too risky for u I'm away. But happy for those who are in the money NDAAAAANIIIIIfike 10. My logic (props to @xxxx and @fyatu) is that the NAV was 23/- at the end of FY 2017 but let's write down losses for FY 2018 and other clean-ups and payouts to the management. Let's say this is 13/- so we end up at 10/- but with an improving environment in TZ, a Strategic Investor could step in at 10/- within 2 years. Karibu sana VVS. I am yet to receive the purported letter and really hope that TZ problems have been resolved Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:xxxxx wrote:They promised to update us fully within 90 days of 31st May...therefore 31 August is their set timeline. But I'm reading that Paunrana sent a letter to sshareholders talking about his stepping down...... https://kenyanwallstreet.com/?p=23364
Either way, given that CDC has for starters disbursed the $4M for working capital, there's still lots of money to be made here by investors who appreciate that the share has been de-risked significantly. However, @Obiero must stay away.....still too risky for u I'm away. But happy for those who are in the money NDAAAAANIIIIIfike 10. My logic (props to @xxxx and @fyatu) is that the NAV was 23/- at the end of FY 2017 but let's write down losses for FY 2018 and other clean-ups and payouts to the management. Let's say this is 13/- so we end up at 10/- but with an improving environment in TZ, a Strategic Investor could step in at 10/- within 2 years. Karibu sana VVS. I am yet to receive the purported letter and really hope that TZ problems have been resolved In the words of @vvs hope is not an investment strategy
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/23/2014 Posts: 903
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obiero wrote:Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:xxxxx wrote:They promised to update us fully within 90 days of 31st May...therefore 31 August is their set timeline. But I'm reading that Paunrana sent a letter to sshareholders talking about his stepping down...... https://kenyanwallstreet.com/?p=23364
Either way, given that CDC has for starters disbursed the $4M for working capital, there's still lots of money to be made here by investors who appreciate that the share has been de-risked significantly. However, @Obiero must stay away.....still too risky for u I'm away. But happy for those who are in the money NDAAAAANIIIIIfike 10. My logic (props to @xxxx and @fyatu) is that the NAV was 23/- at the end of FY 2017 but let's write down losses for FY 2018 and other clean-ups and payouts to the management. Let's say this is 13/- so we end up at 10/- but with an improving environment in TZ, a Strategic Investor could step in at 10/- within 2 years. Karibu sana VVS. I am yet to receive the purported letter and really hope that TZ problems have been resolved In the words of @vvs hope is not an investment strategy is there a specific reason for the price increase or is it being caused by some clowns playing the market ? βYou can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.β - Ben Graham
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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HaMaina wrote:obiero wrote:Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:xxxxx wrote:They promised to update us fully within 90 days of 31st May...therefore 31 August is their set timeline. But I'm reading that Paunrana sent a letter to sshareholders talking about his stepping down...... https://kenyanwallstreet.com/?p=23364
Either way, given that CDC has for starters disbursed the $4M for working capital, there's still lots of money to be made here by investors who appreciate that the share has been de-risked significantly. However, @Obiero must stay away.....still too risky for u I'm away. But happy for those who are in the money NDAAAAANIIIIIfike 10. My logic (props to @xxxx and @fyatu) is that the NAV was 23/- at the end of FY 2017 but let's write down losses for FY 2018 and other clean-ups and payouts to the management. Let's say this is 13/- so we end up at 10/- but with an improving environment in TZ, a Strategic Investor could step in at 10/- within 2 years. Karibu sana VVS. I am yet to receive the purported letter and really hope that TZ problems have been resolved In the words of @vvs hope is not an investment strategy is there a specific reason for the price increase or is it being caused by some clowns playing the market ? Paunrama has stepped down as CEO. CDC will pump in some more cash into the business and they are looking for a new man to turn around ARM. This is causing excitement in the market.Its more of short term gains rather than long term. It will take time for this business to pick up from where it stands. This development has brought some cheers into the construction segment of NSE which was very gloomy.Bamburi and Eapc are still in dooldrums. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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