Wazua
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ARM HY2017
Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Fyatu wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:Fyatu wrote:guru267 wrote:I believe there is a deliberate plan to scoop up ARM shares at a throw away price. Time will tell though 1. Shake-off the weak Wanjiku of little faith who are prone to fear by creating uncertainty. 2. Have them stampede as they jump-off the boat. 3. Mop-up the mess(buy at low prices). .....this NSE is not for the faint hearted. However, tell tale signs are all over. ARM not paying salaries, resignation of long serving directors, late reporting etc. To me what makes me fear jumping in is the story about delayed salaries suggesting very low revenues, low sales etc. I will watch from the sidelines Not paying salaries is like not paying rent in your rented premises,the next step is usually being kicked out and auctioned But you could be parking a merc outside your rented premises I see what you have done there....A market valuation of Kshs. 2.88B Vs. NAV of 26B as per HY 2017....very enticing but once bitten twice shy What? NAV of 26bn? How now? Did you deduct liabilities from the assets? 24B to be exact. Check page 16 of this document Very poor approach of valuing a distressed company. By the time you liquidate you will realise that nothing exists in the name of current assets for a specialized company like arm. Further forced sale value of plant and equipment is oftenly below acceptable levels of 65%. But let us be Mumias bandwagon optimist ie impair every asset by 65% ie 40bn X.65 approx. to26.00bn non current as 7bn X. 65 approx to 4.55bn. Current asset Totaling to 30.55bn. Now less all liabilities now that the company has not been able to honor debts as they fall due and factor in debt accumulation at a rate of say 25% of average debt levels per annum to account for such things as salaries in arrears, accumulating debt in general. Current liab 10bn add 12 bn non current liabilities total liabilities/debt=22bn Factor debt accumulation at 25% Ie 22bn+22bn*0.25=27.55bn Now find net assets for your valuation purposes 30.55bn less 27.55bn= 3bn Net assets is 3bn. Per share =3bn/959940200issued shares=3.1251946735848/= And thats not all. Factor in current years loss of day 1bn.Jemeni. Kwani hii hesabu ni ngumu aji mwanaume anaingiza kichwa ndani ya krokodile Akiona. Anything above two bob is to me buying confusion at a premium especially if you are not a strategic investor, like me. If you are not going in to give but to expect., just know karm is like a heifer on heat. It's a potential milker in future so long as you get her fertile body inseminated. https://media.giphy.com/...RF0v9WMAUVLNK/giphy.gif https://media.giphy.com/media/l4FGqUJjXKP2tkW5O/giphy.gif Things are thick here. You were extremely optimistic here .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Rally waiting for an update on the company's troubles Extremely high risk gamble and could be heading to lower than 2.55 if the update delays or if it's nerve shaking the news has come,expect -0.8 price "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/22/2015 Posts: 224 Location: Mombasa, Kenya
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mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Rally waiting for an update on the company's troubles Extremely high risk gamble and could be heading to lower than 2.55 if the update delays or if it's nerve shaking the news has come,expect -0.8 price I expect worse. The stampede will be worse than before Start!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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Metch wrote:mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Rally waiting for an update on the company's troubles Extremely high risk gamble and could be heading to lower than 2.55 if the update delays or if it's nerve shaking the news has come,expect -0.8 price I expect worse. The stampede will be worse than before Very true...this must be where common law dictates that THE LOSS LAY WHERE IT FELL  So, whoever is in, sit tight, watch and learn, and enjoy the ride.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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xxxxx wrote:Metch wrote:mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Rally waiting for an update on the company's troubles Extremely high risk gamble and could be heading to lower than 2.55 if the update delays or if it's nerve shaking the news has come,expect -0.8 price I expect worse. The stampede will be worse than before Very true...this must be where common law dictates that THE LOSS LAY WHERE IT FELL So, whoever is in, sit tight, watch and learn, and enjoy the ride. this could be the first company to trade below 0 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mlennyma wrote:xxxxx wrote:Metch wrote:mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Rally waiting for an update on the company's troubles Extremely high risk gamble and could be heading to lower than 2.55 if the update delays or if it's nerve shaking the news has come,expect -0.8 price I expect worse. The stampede will be worse than before Very true...this must be where common law dictates that THE LOSS LAY WHERE IT FELL So, whoever is in, sit tight, watch and learn, and enjoy the ride. this could be the first company to trade below 0 How now? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:xxxxx wrote:Metch wrote:mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:Rally waiting for an update on the company's troubles Extremely high risk gamble and could be heading to lower than 2.55 if the update delays or if it's nerve shaking the news has come,expect -0.8 price I expect worse. The stampede will be worse than before Very true...this must be where common law dictates that THE LOSS LAY WHERE IT FELL So, whoever is in, sit tight, watch and learn, and enjoy the ride. this could be the first company to trade below 0 How now? it's a soft way of saying if you own a big chunk of this company's shares lock the toilet and pray,may be a rescue plan might be found "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Metch wrote:Fyatu wrote:sparkly wrote:At 1434 Hours EAT the situation is as follows: Open - 2.70 Low - 2.55 High - 2.90 Close - TBD Demand - 1.4m Supply - 470k at 2.70 In my view a rebound is imminent. I have thus jumped in 10k Shares @2.70. It is times like this when a fundamentalist like me require validation from chartists like @Mnandii. @Sparkly,@fyatu what do you say to those who will be buying at 2.40 tomorrow? All are welcome. Only time will tell if the bigger fools are the buyers or the sellers. Surely?
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:sparkly wrote:Metch wrote:Fyatu wrote:sparkly wrote:At 1434 Hours EAT the situation is as follows: Open - 2.70 Low - 2.55 High - 2.90 Close - TBD Demand - 1.4m Supply - 470k at 2.70 In my view a rebound is imminent. I have thus jumped in 10k Shares @2.70. It is times like this when a fundamentalist like me require validation from chartists like @Mnandii. @Sparkly,@fyatu what do you say to those who will be buying at 2.40 tomorrow? All are welcome. Only time will tell if the bigger fools are the buyers or the sellers. 2.40/- may not print. Expect a stampede north. Surely?
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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xxxxx wrote:sparkly wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Fyatu wrote:I have bought 100000 shares at 2.70 bob. Bookmark this for future reference and for the sake of future learning.@xxxxx i will offload these @kshs 36. What about that person who sold to you. Shouldn't they too bookmark this to remind themselves, it's better a half a loaf than none. @Fyatu, are you going inside as a firtile egg ready to bring forth a new calf and bring the heifers to milk or you are going inside hoping to be bought together with the heifer. There is no moot to warrant this one not touching 1.xy/=. U have just done a premature enjacs, if I may be asked to say. Already down to 2.55 bob  Falling knife. Do not attempt to catch unless you are a juggler. This monkey is going to surprise the lucky few with ballz to dive in. Too much negativity going around with little justification. Surely?
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:sparkly wrote:xxxxx wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:ARM just like KQ is dying gracefully . KQ can't die because it Will be under government's live support machines upto the bitter end but ARM is another nakumatt Even ARM is under UK government support. You believe UK taxpayers will come to its rescue?? A restructuring plus an Open Offer perhaps? I don't believe anything. Just stating an obvious fact. It is neither obvious nor fact at all. If it were ARM would not be tanking that much...intact you yourself would be buying lots of it  Or Are you buying lots of it??  CDC pumped KShs 14B into ARM to get 42% shareholding. CDC is a UK gov fund. Therefore ARM is under UK gov support. Of what strategic interest is ARM to UK government. The sh.14bn has been flushed just like that. Curiously, of late, we have been agreeing with each other! UK gov't has no strategic interest in ARM unlike GoK has in KQ. ARM can die and the UK gov't doesn't care too much. KQ has benefits to Kenya including tourism, exports, "national" pride, etc. I do want ARM to survive, as long as it's not using taxpayer funds, and get back on track. We need competition to keep cement manufacturers honest. @sparkly @fyatu have shocked me with their recent ARM purchases.. Unadulterated investment insanity
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:sparkly wrote:xxxxx wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:ARM just like KQ is dying gracefully . KQ can't die because it Will be under government's live support machines upto the bitter end but ARM is another nakumatt Even ARM is under UK government support. You believe UK taxpayers will come to its rescue?? A restructuring plus an Open Offer perhaps? I don't believe anything. Just stating an obvious fact. It is neither obvious nor fact at all. If it were ARM would not be tanking that much...intact you yourself would be buying lots of it Or Are you buying lots of it?? CDC pumped KShs 14B into ARM to get 42% shareholding. CDC is a UK gov fund. Therefore ARM is under UK gov support. Of what strategic interest is ARM to UK government. The sh.14bn has been flushed just like that. Curiously, of late, we have been agreeing with each other! UK gov't has no strategic interest in ARM unlike GoK has in KQ. ARM can die and the UK gov't doesn't care too much. KQ has benefits to Kenya including tourism, exports, "national" pride, etc. I do want ARM to survive, as long as it's not using taxpayer funds, and get back on track. We need competition to keep cement manufacturers honest. @sparkly @fyatu have shocked me with their recent ARM purchases.. Unadulterated investment insanity I am still very bullish on cement business......the coal situation in Tanzania will improve. Debt will be paid.....afterall dawa ya deni ni kulipa. I will hold and will not be shaken off by mabwenyenye wa NSE Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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, @fyatu I saw the Atlas thread... Why repeat the same mistake? We have alot of Gems at the NSE... Companies like this are not worth it... That HFCK is Gonna explode after the rate cap is removed.... It's a nice contrarian play... Almost same industry as ARM Cement!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:sparkly wrote:Metch wrote:Fyatu wrote:sparkly wrote:At 1434 Hours EAT the situation is as follows: Open - 2.70 Low - 2.55 High - 2.90 Close - TBD Demand - 1.4m Supply - 470k at 2.70 In my view a rebound is imminent. I have thus jumped in 10k Shares @2.70. It is times like this when a fundamentalist like me require validation from chartists like @Mnandii. @Sparkly,@fyatu what do you say to those who will be buying at 2.40 tomorrow? All are welcome. Only time will tell if the bigger fools are the buyers or the sellers. 2.40/- may not print. Expect a stampede north. Surely? Relax and watch a bloodbath reminiscent as KQ's 25bn loss that triggered price capitulation tsunami. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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the deal wrote:, @fyatu I saw the Atlas thread... Why repeat the same mistake? We have alot of Gems at the NSE... Companies like this are not worth it... That HFCK is Gonna explode after the rate cap is removed.... It's a nice contrarian play... Almost same industry as ARM Cement! @deal Atlas proposition of chancho project was too good to ignore. However, as it turned out, those wazungus were outright criminals that exploited week elements at CMA. I invested in ARM after visiting their factory in Athi river and observing that operations were ongoing i.e., clinker was coming in aand ready mix concrete was coming out. I don't intend to add more shares but rather will hold and weather the storm...it is highly unlikely ARM will go the Atlas way. All indications are that all assets in Tanzania wil be sold and focus will be Kenya and Rwanda. Also CDC have initiated a turnaround thus the proverbial corner is not far off Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:sparkly wrote:xxxxx wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:ARM just like KQ is dying gracefully . KQ can't die because it Will be under government's live support machines upto the bitter end but ARM is another nakumatt Even ARM is under UK government support. You believe UK taxpayers will come to its rescue?? A restructuring plus an Open Offer perhaps? I don't believe anything. Just stating an obvious fact. It is neither obvious nor fact at all. If it were ARM would not be tanking that much...intact you yourself would be buying lots of it Or Are you buying lots of it?? CDC pumped KShs 14B into ARM to get 42% shareholding. CDC is a UK gov fund. Therefore ARM is under UK gov support. Of what strategic interest is ARM to UK government. The sh.14bn has been flushed just like that. Curiously, of late, we have been agreeing with each other! UK gov't has no strategic interest in ARM unlike GoK has in KQ. ARM can die and the UK gov't doesn't care too much. KQ has benefits to Kenya including tourism, exports, "national" pride, etc. I do want ARM to survive, as long as it's not using taxpayer funds, and get back on track. We need competition to keep cement manufacturers honest. @sparkly @fyatu have shocked me with their recent ARM purchases.. Unadulterated investment insanity There are many trading strategies to make money. We are now counter-trend trading/ trading the fade. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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heri wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Fyatu wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:Fyatu wrote:guru267 wrote:I believe there is a deliberate plan to scoop up ARM shares at a throw away price. Time will tell though 1. Shake-off the weak Wanjiku of little faith who are prone to fear by creating uncertainty. 2. Have them stampede as they jump-off the boat. 3. Mop-up the mess(buy at low prices). .....this NSE is not for the faint hearted. However, tell tale signs are all over. ARM not paying salaries, resignation of long serving directors, late reporting etc. To me what makes me fear jumping in is the story about delayed salaries suggesting very low revenues, low sales etc. I will watch from the sidelines Not paying salaries is like not paying rent in your rented premises,the next step is usually being kicked out and auctioned But you could be parking a merc outside your rented premises I see what you have done there....A market valuation of Kshs. 2.88B Vs. NAV of 26B as per HY 2017....very enticing but once bitten twice shy What? NAV of 26bn? How now? Did you deduct liabilities from the assets? 24B to be exact. Check page 16 of this document Very poor approach of valuing a distressed company. By the time you liquidate you will realise that nothing exists in the name of current assets for a specialized company like arm. Further forced sale value of plant and equipment is oftenly below acceptable levels of 65%. But let us be Mumias bandwagon optimist ie impair every asset by 65% ie 40bn X.65 approx. to26.00bn non current as 7bn X. 65 approx to 4.55bn. Current asset Totaling to 30.55bn. Now less all liabilities now that the company has not been able to honor debts as they fall due and factor in debt accumulation at a rate of say 25% of average debt levels per annum to account for such things as salaries in arrears, accumulating debt in general. Current liab 10bn add 12 bn non current liabilities total liabilities/debt=22bn Factor debt accumulation at 25% Ie 22bn+22bn*0.25=27.55bn Now find net assets for your valuation purposes 30.55bn less 27.55bn= 3bn Net assets is 3bn. Per share =3bn/959940200issued shares=3.1251946735848/= And thats not all. Factor in current years loss of day 1bn.Jemeni. Kwani hii hesabu ni ngumu aji mwanaume anaingiza kichwa ndani ya krokodile Akiona. Anything above two bob is to me buying confusion at a premium especially if you are not a strategic investor, like me. If you are not going in to give but to expect., just know karm is like a heifer on heat. It's a potential milker in future so long as you get her fertile body inseminated. https://media.giphy.com/...RF0v9WMAUVLNK/giphy.gif https://media.giphy.com/media/l4FGqUJjXKP2tkW5O/giphy.gif Things are thick here. You were extremely optimistic here . @heri, I agree..... Atleast I had a price, which now, I can revise downwards. Atleast I was convinced of something from what I knew then and I see the projection was fair than none. Wonder what would I be saying had I set my foot inside too early based on history, hii ingekuwa stori yangu. Some luck though with a little bite of hard work pays. Cold tusker simeisha. I go to bed now, coz hard work sometimes, doesn't pay. Naiyo manenoingine, sitakikujua. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 41
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Fyatu wrote:the deal wrote:, @fyatu I saw the Atlas thread... Why repeat the same mistake? We have alot of Gems at the NSE... Companies like this are not worth it... That HFCK is Gonna explode after the rate cap is removed.... It's a nice contrarian play... Almost same industry as ARM Cement! @deal Atlas proposition of chancho project was too good to ignore. However, as it turned out, those wazungus were outright criminals that exploited week elements at CMA. I invested in ARM after visiting their factory in Athi river and observing that operations were ongoing i.e., clinker was coming in aand ready mix concrete was coming out. I don't intend to add more shares but rather will hold and weather the storm...it is highly unlikely ARM will go the Atlas way. All indications are that all assets in Tanzania wil be sold and focus will be Kenya and Rwanda. Also CDC have initiated a turnaround thus the proverbial corner is not far off ARM does not produce readymix concrete. You must have visited the wrong factory Happiness is not the absence of problems, It's the ability to deal with them
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Juojo wrote:Fyatu wrote:the deal wrote:, @fyatu I saw the Atlas thread... Why repeat the same mistake? We have alot of Gems at the NSE... Companies like this are not worth it... That HFCK is Gonna explode after the rate cap is removed.... It's a nice contrarian play... Almost same industry as ARM Cement! @deal Atlas proposition of chancho project was too good to ignore. However, as it turned out, those wazungus were outright criminals that exploited week elements at CMA. I invested in ARM after visiting their factory in Athi river and observing that operations were ongoing i.e., clinker was coming in aand ready mix concrete was coming out. I don't intend to add more shares but rather will hold and weather the storm...it is highly unlikely ARM will go the Atlas way. All indications are that all assets in Tanzania wil be sold and focus will be Kenya and Rwanda. Also CDC have initiated a turnaround thus the proverbial corner is not far off ARM does not produce readymix concrete. You must have visited the wrong factory So what do you call the product they are delivering HERE and other upcoming skyscrappers of Nairobi almost on a daily basis https://twitter.com/RhinoCement/status/941646666762997760
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:Juojo wrote:Fyatu wrote:the deal wrote:, @fyatu I saw the Atlas thread... Why repeat the same mistake? We have alot of Gems at the NSE... Companies like this are not worth it... That HFCK is Gonna explode after the rate cap is removed.... It's a nice contrarian play... Almost same industry as ARM Cement! @deal Atlas proposition of chancho project was too good to ignore. However, as it turned out, those wazungus were outright criminals that exploited week elements at CMA. I invested in ARM after visiting their factory in Athi river and observing that operations were ongoing i.e., clinker was coming in aand ready mix concrete was coming out. I don't intend to add more shares but rather will hold and weather the storm...it is highly unlikely ARM will go the Atlas way. All indications are that all assets in Tanzania wil be sold and focus will be Kenya and Rwanda. Also CDC have initiated a turnaround thus the proverbial corner is not far off ARM does not produce readymix concrete. You must have visited the wrong factory So what do you call the product they are delivering HERE and other upcoming skyscrappers of Nairobi almost on a daily basis https://twitter.com/RhinoCement/status/941646666762997760
#FakeNews Just kidding. I have no idea. I am following the saga coz it is fascinating! Good luck! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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