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KENGEN HY17
kawi254
#81 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2017 3:05:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 465
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
East-Southern Africa Power Pool: Kenya imports electricity to plug deficit

http://www.businessdaily...1208-auxmsuz/index.html

http://www.kenyaengineer...tricity-to-plug-deficit



Sensational media.

In July 2017 total local power generated was 867.02 Million Kwh and imported from Uganda was 23.04 Millon Kwh which is just ~ 2.66 % (KNBS). And the power imports are mostly to Western border counties where reach of Kenya's Grid is not adequate.



Cde Monomotapa wrote:


Concerns are hydrology & effects of decommissioning of Kipevu III. The PIC propeller trade was good, AKS hype-man - 60B in mkt. cap.


Kipevu III was commissioned in 2011 and with PPA running for 20 or 25 Yrs capacity charge will still be paid even if decommissioned.


Yes, Hyrdorology in 2017 was bad but some Hydro's now receiving capacity charges that previously they weren't eligible and Hydro is just $ 0.023/Kwh so the bump will be cancelled by increased geothermal generation.

Biggest worry for me is the creative accounting last financial year of geothermal consultancy revenues running into Billions.
Cde Monomotapa
#82 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2017 3:30:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
kawi254 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
East-Southern Africa Power Pool: Kenya imports electricity to plug deficit

http://www.businessdaily...1208-auxmsuz/index.html

http://www.kenyaengineer...tricity-to-plug-deficit



Sensational media.

In July 2017 total local power generated was 867.02 Million Kwh and imported from Uganda was 23.04 Millon Kwh which is just ~ 2.66 % (KNBS). And the power imports are mostly to Western border counties where reach of Kenya's Grid is not adequate.



Cde Monomotapa wrote:


Concerns are hydrology & effects of decommissioning of Kipevu III. The PIC propeller trade was good, AKS hype-man - 60B in mkt. cap.


Kipevu III was commissioned in 2011 and with PPA running for 20 or 25 Yrs capacity charge will still be paid even if decommissioned.


Yes, Hyrdorology in 2017 was bad but some Hydro's now receiving capacity charges that previously they weren't eligible and Hydro is just $ 0.023/Kwh so the bump will be cancelled by increased geothermal generation.

Biggest worry for me is the creative accounting last financial year of geothermal consultancy revenues running into Billions.


Interesting. Ndakaini is not Masinga? Hydrology has to be a concern. Whether (Kengen's specifically) geo-thermal can cover we will know Wednesday.


There was a recent powering of a line from Olkaria to the Coast, hence, Kipevu III. Sure, it can be on care & maintenance for standby generation.

Article
Quote:
Majority of the Coast region has in the past relied on thermal generators linked to the national grid for electricity supply. The line will evacuate up to 150 MW of geothermal power. Demand in the Coast region currently stands close to 300MW.
https://www.capitalfm.co...400kv-suswa-rabai-line/
kawi254
#83 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2017 4:11:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 465
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
East-Southern Africa Power Pool: Kenya imports electricity to plug deficit

http://www.businessdaily...1208-auxmsuz/index.html

http://www.kenyaengineer...tricity-to-plug-deficit



Sensational media.

In July 2017 total local power generated was 867.02 Million Kwh and imported from Uganda was 23.04 Millon Kwh which is just ~ 2.66 % (KNBS). And the power imports are mostly to Western border counties where reach of Kenya's Grid is not adequate.



Cde Monomotapa wrote:


Concerns are hydrology & effects of decommissioning of Kipevu III. The PIC propeller trade was good, AKS hype-man - 60B in mkt. cap.


Kipevu III was commissioned in 2011 and with PPA running for 20 or 25 Yrs capacity charge will still be paid even if decommissioned.


Yes, Hyrdorology in 2017 was bad but some Hydro's now receiving capacity charges that previously they weren't eligible and Hydro is just $ 0.023/Kwh so the bump will be cancelled by increased geothermal generation.

Biggest worry for me is the creative accounting last financial year of geothermal consultancy revenues running into Billions.


Interesting. Ndakaini is not Masinga? Hydrology has to be a concern. Whether (Kengen's specifically) geo-thermal can cover we will know Wednesday.


There was a recent powering of a line from Olkaria to the Coast, hence, Kipevu III. Sure, it can be on care & maintenance for standby generation.

Article
Quote:
Majority of the Coast region has in the past relied on thermal generators linked to the national grid for electricity supply. The line will evacuate up to 150 MW of geothermal power. Demand in the Coast region currently stands close to 300MW.
https://www.capitalfm.co...400kv-suswa-rabai-line/



Yes, Mombasa is now linked to Geothermal power (since August) but Geothermal from Olkaria III (Ormat) and Kengen Olkaria is only ~500 MW not enough to power the country during the day/peak hours hence the thermal stations in Mombasa will still run during the day/peak hours.

Also during 2016/17 KenGen's decommissioned Embakasi Gas Turbine and moved it to Western Kenya to replace Aggreko's thermal


But let us wait for the fully year Audited financial results.
Cde Monomotapa
#84 Posted : Friday, October 13, 2017 7:02:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
KCB Capital has Kengen & KPLC as Strong Buys; 14 & 16 respectively. l see a higher price for KPLC - 20, market capitalization - 40B. Conservative still, upside potential vast - value.

Let's see the FYs. Both this October.
Ebenyo
#85 Posted : Saturday, October 14, 2017 8:41:20 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
KCB Capital has Kengen & KPLC as Strong Buys; 14 & 16 respectively. l see a higher price for KPLC - 20, market capitalization - 40B. Conservative still, upside potential vast - value.

Let's see the FYs. Both this October.



The financial results will give us the reality of those projections.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#86 Posted : Tuesday, October 17, 2017 7:12:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#87 Posted : Wednesday, October 18, 2017 7:03:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
KCB Capital has Kengen & KPLC as Strong Buys; 14 & 16 respectively. l see a higher price for KPLC - 20, market capitalization - 40B. Conservative still, upside potential vast - value.

Let's see the FYs. Both this October.



The financial results will give us the reality of those projections.

PBT 11.5 vs 11.2 year prior. No dividend

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Angelica _ann
#88 Posted : Wednesday, October 18, 2017 7:12:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
obiero wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
KCB Capital has Kengen & KPLC as Strong Buys; 14 & 16 respectively. l see a higher price for KPLC - 20, market capitalization - 40B. Conservative still, upside potential vast - value.

Let's see the FYs. Both this October.



The financial results will give us the reality of those projections.

PBT 11.5 vs 11.2 year prior. No dividend


Dividends are for @ my fren. Glad I left smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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