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Wai!! it is a blood bath, kcb, coop, equity down 9%
penkon
#41 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 12:35:04 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/12/2014
Posts: 96
Spikes wrote:
moneydust wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Choices have consequences.
The good advisors who were during the NARC and grand coalition were all chased away from State House and GoK.
Si tuliambiwa this country can be governed bia skype and video conferencing

He was adviced by his technocrats. They told him not sign! He signed. He didn't listen even to the respected Opus Dei!

On this, the president took the political expediency route. This is very disturbing. You expect a strong president to make the right decision for the economy even of it costs him politically.


Uhuru is not a strong president ni mtu wa PR na maselfies.



Uhuru ameamua kukula na Wanjiku. Wachana naye.
Big boys hata wale wako karibu naye watapatikana tu. A strong president is one who listens the voices of the weak. Uhuru is one of them.


Applause Applause Applause
VituVingiSana
#42 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 12:35:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
wukan wrote:
Uhuru and his economic advisers grossly underestimated portfolio forex inflows. Waiting for the carnage to extend to the forex markets


Best to hold on to forex as USD bulls get fired up with capital exit from the market.
These guys at the helm will continue leading our economy to the dumpsters for the foreseeable future

Wrong minds. Banks can't continue milking Kenyans that dry in name of fear. Even if in short term there's negative effects, what we want is a fair future. Banks need to know hii Kenya si ya mama yao. Ever heard of river rejuvenation? Now our economy shall be rejuvenated after clearing this mess is cleared.

The "rejuvenation" is needed across the entire spectrum of Government first.

Slow resolution of cases at the courts which delay justice. And defaulters can get away for years without paying off their debts! Then we have fake title deeds which hamstring genuine borrowers.

GoK borrowed at 15% and wants banks to lend at 14.50%? How now? Sensible banks will put more money in [risk-free] T-Bonds and T-Bills rather than lend to [risky] customers.

(Short-term) T-Bonds and T-Bills do not (negatively) affect the Capital Ratio Requirements. Plus GoK/CBK pays interest every 6 months. And these securities are easy to REPO with CBK if banks need cash.

As long as GoK is in the business of Business... Look at KQ, Mumias, NBK, etc which have been sucking in cash raised via T-Bills/Bonds competing against (genuine) Taxpayers.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MaichBlack
#43 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 12:40:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
Jambo Wanjiku. Habari ndio hii.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
ARAP CHARLES
#44 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 12:45:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 217
Location: Talai
Njung'e wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:


My commiserations however to anyone losing their capital in banking stocks. Pole.


I have a stake in ....but no sympathy whatsoever. BTW, i see Total has joined the fray in the Mega slide. When did they become a bank?smile smile



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Watch and Listen and Live
githundi
#45 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 12:50:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/19/2010
Posts: 1,308
Location: nairobi metropolitan
Free movie. ..It shall always be a story to tell
Democracy does not belong to the dead
VituVingiSana
#46 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 1:09:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
moneydust wrote:
wukan wrote:
Uhuru and his economic advisers grossly underestimated portfolio forex inflows. Waiting for the carnage to extend to the forex markets


Clearly he chose populism instead of sense.By rolling the countrys' tradition of free market policies he has ignited a carnage that will be felt far and wide in the countrys' economy.He will now know what it means to be in a global market.
Cant wait for the fire to filter to the currency market,shillingi yetu RIPPray Pray Pray


The solution(s) is for GoK to:

1) Stop borrowing at high rates for projects. Rationalize the projects being funded using taxpayer funds eg NYS.
2) Stop borrowing to fund the recurrent expenditure eg commissions, cars, etc.
3) Rationalize the court system to defaulters are brought to book sooner.
4) Improve the collateralization system e.g. fake/duplicate Title Deeds, etc which makes it harder for GENUINE borrowers.
5) GoK should get out of the business of Business eg KQ, Uchumi, etc.

All the other stuff is irrelevant as long as GoK spends money like it can be printed. Which it can. With inflationary results.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 1:15:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
jgithige wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Choices have consequences.
The good advisors who were during the NARC and grand coalition were all chased away from State House and GoK.
Si tuliambiwa this country can be governed bia skype and video conferencing

He was adviced by his technocrats. They told him not sign! He signed. He didn't listen even to the respected Opus Dei!

On this, the president took the political expediency route. This is very disturbing. You expect a strong president to make the right decision for the economy even of it costs him politically.


But equally the banks have failed the economy prompting this type of legislation. Honestly our banks are exploitative. Compare the regulation in Energy & Petroleum industry which has been a success,has much impact and bigger than our banking sector.

OMCs do not buy their product from the KE market [i.e. OMCs buy fuel from the international markets and add a guaranteed premium/profit].

Banks "buy" deposits from the market competing against GoK [T-Bills and Bonds].

What banks could do is lend billions to GoK [very low risk] without incurring multiple costs eg loan officers, loan analysts, legal personnel, etc. Invest in T-Bills and Bonds have a small group bid for the Gilts as well as check/calculate payments that come in via CBK transfers. No need to have cashiers who accept cheques. No need for back office to coordinate clearance of cheques. Savings galore.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MaichBlack
#48 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 1:25:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
githundi wrote:
Free movie. ..It shall always be a story to tell

Let the President start monitoring. He said they will be monitoring, didn't he?

The CS and Central Bank Governor must be having a terrible job at the moment. They advised the president not to sign and gave him reasons and he signed anyway. Now he will expect them to deal with the aftermath!!! Ever woke up and didn't feel like going to work? That is those guys today? And tomorrow... And for a while...

And you imagine the President will be in a brainstorming group trying to figure out how to deal with the aftermath??? Your guess is as good as mine!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Jon Jones
#49 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 1:26:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
Banking stocks will slide until end of the year when investors can roughly investigate the impact of the law on their profitability. Until then, expect massive exits and rock bottom prices. Banks have a smaller margin for error now. Only the best candidates will get loans. You can now know that you can now qualify for maybe half what you would have qualified for before the law.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
mlennyma
#50 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 1:31:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
Jon Jones wrote:
Banking stocks will slide until end of the year when investors can roughly investigate the impact of the law on their profitability. Until then, expect massive exits and rock bottom prices.

Until Q1 2017
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Jon Jones
#51 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 1:33:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
Any smart investor will avoid banking stocks until he/she can roughly assess the impact of the new law on the EPS of banks. That may take one year or so. Therefore, for the next one year, banking stocks will take one for the team
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
moneydust
#52 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 1:48:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 303
VituVingiSana wrote:
moneydust wrote:
wukan wrote:
Uhuru and his economic advisers grossly underestimated portfolio forex inflows. Waiting for the carnage to extend to the forex markets


Clearly he chose populism instead of sense.By rolling the countrys' tradition of free market policies he has ignited a carnage that will be felt far and wide in the countrys' economy.He will now know what it means to be in a global market.
Cant wait for the fire to filter to the currency market,shillingi yetu RIPPray Pray Pray


The solution(s) is for GoK to:

1) Stop borrowing at high rates for projects. Rationalize the projects being funded using taxpayer funds eg NYS.
2) Stop borrowing to fund the recurrent expenditure eg commissions, cars, etc.
3) Rationalize the court system to defaulters are brought to book sooner.
4) Improve the collateralization system e.g. fake/duplicate Title Deeds, etc which makes it harder for GENUINE borrowers.
5) GoK should get out of the business of Business eg KQ, Uchumi, etc.

All the other stuff is irrelevant as long as GoK spends money like it can be printed. Which it can. With inflationary results.


Easier said than done..this is Kenya we love shortcuts for everything.
VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:01:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Jon Jones wrote:
Banking stocks will slide until end of the year when investors can roughly investigate the impact of the law on their profitability. Until then, expect massive exits and rock bottom prices. Banks have a smaller margin for error now. Only the best candidates will get loans. You can now know that you can now qualify for maybe half what you would have qualified for before the law.

This is help banks curb the growing NPLs. The marginal borrowers [potential defaulters] will be locked out. Plus as you say those who will be lent funds will be charged less BUT expected to put more collateral up thus reducing the risk of default.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jon Jones
#54 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:15:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jon Jones wrote:
Banking stocks will slide until end of the year when investors can roughly investigate the impact of the law on their profitability. Until then, expect massive exits and rock bottom prices. Banks have a smaller margin for error now. Only the best candidates will get loans. You can now know that you can now qualify for maybe half what you would have qualified for before the law.

This is help banks curb the growing NPLs. The marginal borrowers [potential defaulters] will be locked out. Plus as you say those who will be lent funds will be charged less BUT expected to put more collateral up thus reducing the risk of default.

In my opinion, this law will force banks to work for their money. They will have to lend prudently by examining how the funds will be used in certain projects. This is a good thing for Wanjiku because they will be getting free financial advise in the process...basically, if the banker refuses to give you a loan, your idea probably sucks. Previously, they could afford to finance two bad projects for every five because the spreads were large enough.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
tafutabiz
#55 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:17:17 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/3/2014
Posts: 20
Whatever is happening at the NSE is simply a correction. Banks have been making obscene profits through their predatory behavior hence overpriced shares. This will continue until middle ground is reached meanwhile Wanjiku is the winner. Those that are expecting wanjiku to be neglected by the Banks you are in a dreamland; Barclays Bank attempted this long before the interest rates caps until Equity happened. Clearly, it is Wanjiku that has made Equity a success story. Wanjiku didn't collapse Dubai Bank, Imperial or Chase, Never! If present banks behave like former Barclays Bank, in a today's globalized economy where crowd funding, peer2peer lending, online channels exist then am sorry for them, it shall be an obituary epitome.
2012
#56 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:25:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Creativity starts now. Credit cards will now be one of the holy grails for the banks. Expect a call on soon from your 'friendly bank'.

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#57 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:27:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Jon Jones wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Jon Jones wrote:
Banking stocks will slide until end of the year when investors can roughly investigate the impact of the law on their profitability. Until then, expect massive exits and rock bottom prices. Banks have a smaller margin for error now. Only the best candidates will get loans. You can now know that you can now qualify for maybe half what you would have qualified for before the law.

This is help banks curb the growing NPLs. The marginal borrowers [potential defaulters] will be locked out. Plus as you say those who will be lent funds will be charged less BUT expected to put more collateral up thus reducing the risk of default.

In my opinion, this law will force banks to work for their money. They will have to lend prudently by examining how the funds will be used in certain projects. This is a good thing for Wanjiku because they will be getting free financial advise in the process...basically, if the banker refuses to give you a loan, your idea probably sucks. Previously, they could afford to finance two bad projects for every five because the spreads were large enough.

I expect the number of Real Estate projects coming up to take a hit as financing dries up for poorly thought out projects.

Based on @JonJones views, this might be positive for the KE economy to cool off a bit. And a reduction in (24%) consumer loans will help both banks & borrowers take a breather.

I believe the Real Estate market needs a cooling off period and focus should shift to "low-income" housing vs the middle-class & high-income housing.

My take is most banks [especially those that did not lend at to consumers at high rates] will be fine.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
moneydust
#58 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:46:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 303
tafutabiz wrote:
Whatever is happening at the NSE is simply a correction. Banks have been making obscene profits through their predatory behavior hence overpriced shares. This will continue until middle ground is reached meanwhile Wanjiku is the winner. Those that are expecting wanjiku to be neglected by the Banks you are in a dreamland; Barclays Bank attempted this long before the interest rates caps until Equity happened. Clearly, it is Wanjiku that has made Equity a success story. Wanjiku didn't collapse Dubai Bank, Imperial or Chase, Never! If present banks behave like former Barclays Bank, in a today's globalized economy where crowd funding, peer2peer lending, online channels exist then am sorry for them, it shall be an obituary epitome.


Obscene..that is one of those myths.. as a percentage of their total assets the banks are making less than 5% in profit.Compare that to the return in other investments ie real estate,wholesale and retail etc you will find that the banks are not really doing that well. Don't be wowed by the absolute figure.
Jon Jones
#59 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:50:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2015
Posts: 242
Location: Thika
JM has lost a cool BIRRION today. Tomorrow is another day he will take one for the team. His entire networth might be cut by half or worse by the time dust settles with this law. This is the flip side of the stock market. One day a politician can decide to cut your networth.
Since men have learned to shoot without missing, I have learned to fly without perching
Wakanyugi
#60 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 2:54:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
moneydust wrote:
tafutabiz wrote:
Whatever is happening at the NSE is simply a correction. Banks have been making obscene profits through their predatory behavior hence overpriced shares. This will continue until middle ground is reached meanwhile Wanjiku is the winner. Those that are expecting wanjiku to be neglected by the Banks you are in a dreamland; Barclays Bank attempted this long before the interest rates caps until Equity happened. Clearly, it is Wanjiku that has made Equity a success story. Wanjiku didn't collapse Dubai Bank, Imperial or Chase, Never! If present banks behave like former Barclays Bank, in a today's globalized economy where crowd funding, peer2peer lending, online channels exist then am sorry for them, it shall be an obituary epitome.


Obscene..that is one of those myths.. as a percentage of their total assets the banks are making less than 5% in profit.Compare that to the return in other investments ie real estate,wholesale and retail etc you will find that the banks are not really doing that well. Don't be wowed by the absolute figure.


The problem is not the return that Banks make, but how they do it. In fact I would not mind if they made 10-20% - but they have become the worst brokers you can think of. They take Wanjiku's money, pay her a pittance and then sell it back to her at an exorbitant cost.

In more developed economies Banks make most of their money from investment financing, IPO, M&A, risk mitigation, conveyancing services etc. In Kenya they have become lazy and rely on interest charges and government paper. This has to stop.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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