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Law Capping interest rates
Wakanyugi
#721 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 10:26:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
obiero wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Simba must bow down to THE 20s

That is unlikely elder

Next stop.........THE TEENS


If Simba touches the teens, you will find me at the head of the line. KCB has some of the sharpest brains leading it today. That would be reason enough to buy.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
Angelica _ann
#722 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 6:38:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Wakanyugi wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
obiero wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Simba must bow down to THE 20s

That is unlikely elder

Next stop.........THE TEENS


If Simba touches the teens, you will find me at the head of the line. KCB has some of the sharpest brains leading it today. That would be reason enough to buy.

Equity is likely to respond better than KCB .
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Impunity
#723 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 8:33:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,325
Location: Masada
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
obiero wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Simba must bow down to THE 20s

That is unlikely elder

Next stop.........THE TEENS


Me thinks Simba will kiss the toddlers.
Drool
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

ecstacy
#724 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 9:51:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
1. Will SACCOs effectiely lend at cheaper rates than the bank interest rates ceiling? Yes/No

2. Has the CRB helped most Kenyan small borrowers access credit at cheaper rates? Yes/No

3. Given audience by the Executive and Treasury technocrats, have the banks offered any concrete proposals to reducing their high interest rates? Yes/No

4. Is Kenya one of the highest developed financial sectors in Africa? Yes/No. Is it also one with the highest interest rates? Yes/No

Peace.
Internet
#725 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:10:19 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2009
Posts: 33
If Banks make less profit due to interest rate capping, KRA will collect less taxes.
Angelica _ann
#726 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:13:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Internet wrote:
If Banks make less profit due to interest rate capping, KRA will collect less taxes.

Yap, including chasing wanjuku thereby resulting in reduced commissions. Looks like in the short run, GoK and the economy wataumia sana!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
KNM
#727 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:17:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 41
This is how I see it playing out, should this law stand.
For one, equilibrium will be reached. So good news for the pro-rate cap crowd. Well sort of...

1. Freeze/slow down in lending: Already began btw. By removing their ability to adequately price the risk into loans(coz thats whats happened!) then better safe than sorry. The leaked memo yesterday was just an example. All will follow suit esp with the unsecured loans.

2. Refusal of deposits
Now plenty of people are confused by this. Nobody is saying a bouncer is at the door stopping you from depositing, it means less welcoming(free). Deposits believe it or not cost banks BIG time. Think of costs at point of deposit(branches, agents/cashiers/personnel, platforms), security of the deposits physical(guards, transit vans, safes) or digital(cybersecurity personnel), accounting (systems, personnel). Beforehand deposits paid for their own costs but now someone has to pay. I can guarantee banks are, as we speak, crunching the numbers. Transaction costs will rise(before you jump with the CS approval line, I'm talking about existing fees), ATM charges rising 100%--from around KES 30 to 60+ etc.Notice how personnel featured severally in the deposit-taking costs? Yep, lay-offs. Like I said someone has to pay.

3. Fall of small banks, rise of big(ger) banks.
Big banks will be able to weather the initial credit freeze. Deep pockets mean easy to diversify. Small banks not so much. And its a catch 22 situation for them. Deny credit and not make money. Lend at low rates and be forced to play with volumes game to break even, and with it risk of default shoots. People will see these banks again going under with customer deposits, coz of defaults. So yes M&As will happen but it will be big swallowing small.

4. Fall of production
Forget the car/smartphone buying consumers for a sec. Businesses esp SMEs being locked out from credit access to fuel their expansion/survival. With that, loss of productivity, worsened by being in an election year. Businesses contract and at best, hiring freeze. More likely, further lay offs.

5. Our regulatory environment has been going haywire. We have already seen multinationals leaving, expect that to worsen. With net flight of forex comes weakening of KES. We're a net import country, weaker shilling means more expensive goods. In an environment of credit crunch and lay-offs mind you.

You will not wake up tomorrow and find yourself in a post-apocalyptic wasteland. It's like an avalanche. Slow at first before ramping up to devastating levels.

Here's a tip:
Remember unsecured loans will be/have been withdrawn among them "Emergency Loans". Wait for an increase in those calls of "nisaidie na ka-loan". Also a lot of people are paid(perhaps unknowingly) by credit facilities. Again salary delays...

Or I might just be a naysayer.
The crowd will cheer your coronation as well as your beheading. People like a show, that's all.
dunkang
#728 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:18:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Internet wrote:
If Banks make less profit due to interest rate capping, KRA will collect less taxes.

If banks dont have the money, businesses have the money
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

KNM
#729 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:21:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 41
Oh forgot.

The equilibrium?

Expensive accounts, worse unemployment, increase in cost of goods and services.

Yay interest caps! Now if only they could give me that loan I buy (insert whatever here)...

I know! Let's force them to by law! Coz if we dug oursleves into this hole, we can get out by digging some more.
The crowd will cheer your coronation as well as your beheading. People like a show, that's all.
MaichBlack
#730 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:31:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
President Uhuru has been a big disappointment on this one. He turned down the advice of Treasury and Central Bank for political reasons. He promised people lower interest rates in the last campaign and he is going to face them again.

He knows this law is f#*ked up (he was briefed by his technocrats) but he had politics/re-election to think about!! Central Bank as so pissed off they said they will not comment on the signing of the bill. Finance Secretary also refused to comment and referred questions to the Attorney General. Who are these other people who advised him to an extent of disregarding the advice of Treasury and CBK???

A president who is willing to mess the whole financial ecosystem to get re-elected is a big no for me!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Angelica _ann
#731 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:34:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
MaichBlack wrote:
President Uhuru has been a big disappointment on this one. He turned down the advice of Treasury and Central Bank for political reasons. He promised people lower interest rates in the last campaign and he is going to face them again.

He knows this law is f#*ked up (he was briefed by his technocrats) but he had politics/re-election to think about!! Central Bank as so pissed off they said they will not comment on the signing of the bill. Finance Secretary also refused to comment and referred questions to the Attorney General. Who are these other people who advised him to an extent of disregarding the advice of Treasury and CBK???

A president who is willing to mess the whole financial ecosystem to get re-elected is a big no for me!

But this has guaranteed his re-election!!!! Politics and politicians, it is all about survival smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
MaichBlack
#732 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:35:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
KNM wrote:
Oh forgot.

The equilibrium?

Expensive accounts, worse unemployment, increase in cost of goods and services.

Yay interest caps! Now if only they could give me that loan I buy (insert whatever here)...

I know! Let's force them to by law! Coz if we dug oursleves into this hole, we can get out by digging some more.

The law will be reversed whenever - like it was done before - but unfortunately for Uhuru, he will have to go through parliament unlike Jacob Zuma's choice of Finance minister that spooked the market and he reversed the appointment ASAP!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#733 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:42:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
Angelica _ann wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
President Uhuru has been a big disappointment on this one. He turned down the advice of Treasury and Central Bank for political reasons. He promised people lower interest rates in the last campaign and he is going to face them again.

He knows this law is f#*ked up (he was briefed by his technocrats) but he had politics/re-election to think about!! Central Bank as so pissed off they said they will not comment on the signing of the bill. Finance Secretary also refused to comment and referred questions to the Attorney General. Who are these other people who advised him to an extent of disregarding the advice of Treasury and CBK???

A president who is willing to mess the whole financial ecosystem to get re-elected is a big no for me!

But this has guaranteed his re-election!!!! Politics and politicians, it is all about survival smile

I doubt this will help him. I doubt Cordishians will vote for him just because he signed the bill. His die hard supporters would still have voted for him either way.

He has actually lost the votes of some people. Unfortunately for some and fortunately for others as @guru says, he will still be re-elected either way.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
ecstacy
#734 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:45:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
The banks were betting Uhuru would follow the text book advise which has taken the country nowhere in the last 3 attempts to address this issue.

What are the anti-bill proponents proposing exactly?
streetwise
#735 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:48:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
A leader needs courage and UK has shown he has .
KNM
#736 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:56:21 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 41
ecstacy wrote:
The banks were betting Uhuru would follow the text book advise which has taken the country nowhere in the last 3 attempts to address this issue.

What are the anti-bill proponents proposing exactly?


VituVingiSana wrote:
moneydust wrote:
wukan wrote:
Uhuru and his economic advisers grossly underestimated portfolio forex inflows. Waiting for the carnage to extend to the forex markets


Clearly he chose populism instead of sense.By rolling the countrys' tradition of free market policies he has ignited a carnage that will be felt far and wide in the countrys' economy.He will now know what it means to be in a global market.
Cant wait for the fire to filter to the currency market,shillingi yetu RIPPray Pray Pray


The solution(s) is for GoK to:

1) Stop borrowing at high rates for projects. Rationalize the projects being funded using taxpayer funds eg NYS.
2) Stop borrowing to fund the recurrent expenditure eg commissions, cars, etc.
3) Rationalize the court system to defaulters are brought to book sooner.
4) Improve the collateralization system e.g. fake/duplicate Title Deeds, etc which makes it harder for GENUINE borrowers.
5) GoK should get out of the business of Business eg KQ, Uchumi, etc.

All the other stuff is irrelevant as long as GoK spends money like it can be printed. Which it can. With inflationary results.



How about that? NO.

They want shortcuts. And they whip people into a frenzy.

"Interest rates are high. Blame the banks!!"

And it's working. Watch the reaction to this law. Schadenfreude (look it up).

I will not rubbish greed as a factor in high rates. But mainly the high rates is a phenomenon. Pricing lack of efficiency due to the reasons outlined by VVS.
The crowd will cheer your coronation as well as your beheading. People like a show, that's all.
streetwise
#737 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 12:16:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
We all agree the interest rates are pretty high and the banks make what I would call immoral profits. In the right environment those whose highest profits should be those who create value. When the bank takes money John1 and rents to John2 at 28 percent what value do they claim to have created
KNM
#738 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 12:32:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 41
streetwise wrote:
We all agree the interest rates are pretty high and the banks make what I would call immoral profits. In the right environment those whose highest profits should be those who create value. When the bank takes money John1 and rents to John2 at 28 percent what value do they claim to have created



In the right environment. Your words. But surely would you call ours the right environment?

Govt is binging on debt which is STOLEN anyway.

This is the thing with our mentality. We don't comb through and see where we are being shafted.

Case in point, fuel prices. For a long time we were shown that taxes were the main component of fuel price. But no. We put a cap. Last month hubris was exposed. Massive jump in prices. Why? Rise in tax.

We are putting a noose on the wrong neck. REPEATEDLY.
Government and its unsustainability is the problem.
The crowd will cheer your coronation as well as your beheading. People like a show, that's all.
KNM
#739 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 12:47:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 41
MaichBlack wrote:
KNM wrote:
Oh forgot.

The equilibrium?

Expensive accounts, worse unemployment, increase in cost of goods and services.

Yay interest caps! Now if only they could give me that loan I buy (insert whatever here)...

I know! Let's force them to by law! Coz if we dug oursleves into this hole, we can get out by digging some more.

The law will be reversed whenever - like it was done before - but unfortunately for Uhuru, he will have to go through parliament unlike Jacob Zuma's choice of Finance minister that spooked the market and he reversed the appointment ASAP!



I was of a similar opinion. Hii ni kuchekesha watu tu.
The crowd will cheer your coronation as well as your beheading. People like a show, that's all.
Nandwa
#740 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 12:49:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 1,049
streetwise wrote:
We all agree the interest rates are pretty high and the banks make what I would call immoral profits. In the right environment those whose highest profits should be those who create value. When the bank takes money John1 and rents to John2 at 28 percent what value do they claim to have created


Indeed we all do. Where we differ is the route to that destination - lower interest rates.

About creating value or lack thereof; Think of the guy who works in Industrial area taunting the guy who works in the Hospital who matters most!

Again the function of the Bank - giving the Money to John2 and bearing the disproportionate risk of either loosing it or getting engaged in endless hide and seek games or even in Courts, while still bearing full obligation to avail John1 his money back whenever he needs it, is a tricky situation.
Just as absolute power corrupts leaders, so does absolute fanaticism blind the people from logic
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