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Law Capping interest rates
tom_boy
#2141 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 5:26:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
wukan wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
wukan wrote:
@tom_boy you do realize that 3m loan at 25% for 1 year will only cost you just 421K in interest. If you import Japanese mitumba cars, buy and sell maize, buy and sell plots, trade shares you can still make a small margin and repay the loan. If you don't have that credit at 14% then does that not limit your economic activities.


Very good, now we are getting somewhere.No we are not because you want to control the marketsMarkets have always been controlled. That is why there are rules and regulations in every economic activity. Just by reading the budget and introducing taxes here, levies there, exemptions here, the Goverment is in effect controlling/influencing market direction. Interest rate control can be looked at an influence towards better quality lending.

So, is it your position that giving people loans to buy mitumba cars and sell to others ( on loan) is a sound way to grow the economy?
Do you realise the opportunity cost is that businesses ( manufacturing, agric, tourism) that need 14% loans are denied a facility in favour of 25% mitumba dealer. How does this grow the economy? Satisfying Consumer demand to improve lifestyle that's how the economy grows. Mitumba cars sell like hot cake especially with young upwardly mobile 24 year olds. The cars consume fuel as they go to Naivasha to revel and helps tourism too. KRA gets duty, KPA staff, broker at the port gets a salary plus the prisoner making the number plates, the insurance guy, Omosh the mechanic etc. All those fellas will equally be employed in manufacturing, tourism (as waiters, tour guides), agriculture as KYM's, brokers, sellers etc. Its just a matter of which direction the economy grows. If capital was directed away from the mitumba economy and towards real value economy, the growth would be astronomical.

Which bank has ever given a loan, even at that 25%, to a broker whose MAIN job is agricultural commodities. No other stable income source to service the loan. My point, this broker, without a salary, but able to access 25% loan to buy and sell maize, is a figment of the imagination of ' western economic theorists'. Assuming this guy has another regular income and was able to service a 25% loan in the past, why deny him a 14% loan to continue with his business? How has the risk changed? If he did not default at 25%, why should he default at 14% thus justify denying him the facility. In a credit crunch there is a flight to quality borrowers. That guy is low quality borrower, he is the last in line he can only attract capital at 25% because govt a prime borrower attracts capital at 13.5%. Just like my friends and relatives I give them interest free loans they can't pay wont pay so I refuse to lend them cash they end up at the shylock and pawning their furniture at 50% interest. Ask the Youth fund how many guys repay the 8% loans or HELB loans. here you conveniently ignore my analogy. This low quality borrower would not qualify even for the 25% loan. If indeed he has been qualifying for it, then there is no reason to deny him a 14% loan since nothing has changed other than a Goverment directive. His capacity to repay has not changed. The only change is a goverment directive. Why deny him a loan at 14%.

Encouraging people to buy, hoard and sell plots on 25% interest loans? How does this help the economy? Why dont we also encourage them to buy , hoard and sell maize to the highest bidder? Refer to my earlier comment

Shares? Buying shares on loan? Is this a business? Can a bank loan money to such a business? Yes banks were lending like crazy for the Safaricom IPO.
Such were the good timessmile


25% interest encourages banks to loan to sectors/ individuals they should not be loaning money to in the first place. Secondly, it denies real business people, in manufacturing, agric, technology, construction, the money they need to grow as they are forced to compete for credit with conspicuos consumers.In the market it's willing buyer willing seller. 25% circulates cash in the economy, 14% only the govt and prime borrowers get credit. The consumer who would have bought the mitumba car foregoes consumption, and without his usual side hussles he consumes less goods and services then next nakumatt is not doing well,
deacons is not doing well etc.

Good point, I accept. However, to get even more money circulating in an economically beneficial manner, would it not be better to loan to good borrowers who will put that money to good use to generate jobs and even more money. This idea of willing buyer willing seller is another myth circulated by 'western economists'. Goverment control is always present, whether you see it or not. Goverment has a hand in pricing of all commodities sold in this country. Just because it chooses to show its hand more forcefully in the matter of bank loans is no reason to shout about controlling markets. how come nobody is complaining about free market when it comes to 90 bob maize? These theories apply when an economy has satisfied basic things like employment, food security etc etc. For as long as we have unemployment, money should go to industries capable of creating employment in multiples or commensurate with capital invested. Putting much needed cash in trade of mitumba and buying imported crisps, while local industries cannot expand for lack of the same capital is not wise.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
lochaz-index
#2142 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 5:28:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
obiero wrote:
[quote=alotoftalk]If and when Kenyan banks return to the era of making super-normal profits it will be after 2019.

2017 - interest caps
2018 - IFRS 9 impact
2019 - upgrade of IT systems/recapitalization

https://www.euromoney.co...osive-effects-of-ifrs-9

http://www.moodysanalyti...mpact-banks-information[/quote]
Will IFRS 9 really find a ready home in this country. Regardless, Kenyan financial counters are in a tight bind. I'm out until further notice

Scbk and bbk have been easing into it. Not sure whether they have fully complied though.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
tom_boy
#2143 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 5:32:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
tom_boy wrote:
wukan wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
wukan wrote:
@tom_boy you do realize that 3m loan at 25% for 1 year will only cost you just 421K in interest. If you import Japanese mitumba cars, buy and sell maize, buy and sell plots, trade shares you can still make a small margin and repay the loan. If you don't have that credit at 14% then does that not limit your economic activities.


Very good, now we are getting somewhere.No we are not because you want to control the marketsMarkets have always been controlled. That is why there are rules and regulations in every economic activity. Just by reading the budget and introducing taxes here, levies there, exemptions here, the Goverment is in effect controlling/influencing market direction. Interest rate control can be looked at an influence towards better quality lending.

So, is it your position that giving people loans to buy mitumba cars and sell to others ( on loan) is a sound way to grow the economy?
Do you realise the opportunity cost is that businesses ( manufacturing, agric, tourism) that need 14% loans are denied a facility in favour of 25% mitumba dealer. How does this grow the economy? Satisfying Consumer demand to improve lifestyle that's how the economy grows. Mitumba cars sell like hot cake especially with young upwardly mobile 24 year olds. The cars consume fuel as they go to Naivasha to revel and helps tourism too. KRA gets duty, KPA staff, broker at the port gets a salary plus the prisoner making the number plates, the insurance guy, Omosh the mechanic etc. All those fellas will equally be employed in manufacturing, tourism (as waiters, tour guides), agriculture as KYM's, brokers, sellers etc. Its just a matter of which direction the economy grows. If capital was directed away from the mitumba economy and towards real value economy, the growth would be astronomical.

Which bank has ever given a loan, even at that 25%, to a broker whose MAIN job is agricultural commodities. No other stable income source to service the loan. My point, this broker, without a salary, but able to access 25% loan to buy and sell maize, is a figment of the imagination of ' western economic theorists'. Assuming this guy has another regular income and was able to service a 25% loan in the past, why deny him a 14% loan to continue with his business? How has the risk changed? If he did not default at 25%, why should he default at 14% thus justify denying him the facility. In a credit crunch there is a flight to quality borrowers. That guy is low quality borrower, he is the last in line he can only attract capital at 25% because govt a prime borrower attracts capital at 13.5%. Just like my friends and relatives I give them interest free loans they can't pay wont pay so I refuse to lend them cash they end up at the shylock and pawning their furniture at 50% interest. Ask the Youth fund how many guys repay the 8% loans or HELB loans. here you conveniently ignore my analogy. This low quality borrower would not qualify even for the 25% loan. If indeed he has been qualifying for it, then there is no reason to deny him a 14% loan since nothing has changed other than a Goverment directive. His capacity to repay has not changed. The only change is a goverment directive. Why deny him a loan at 14%.

Encouraging people to buy, hoard and sell plots on 25% interest loans? How does this help the economy? Why dont we also encourage them to buy , hoard and sell maize to the highest bidder? Refer to my earlier comment

Shares? Buying shares on loan? Is this a business? Can a bank loan money to such a business? Yes banks were lending like crazy for the Safaricom IPO.
Such were the good timessmile
How many people got burned by this ipo and others? How did their getting burned improve their livelihood or the economy? A few people made cash but overall many got burned. In any case, those who successfully borrowed had another source of income to service the loan. Therefore my question remains, If the bank can give me a loan at 25% for a risky venture because I have an alternate source of income, why not give me the same loan at 14% as long as my ability to pay has not changed?

25% interest encourages banks to loan to sectors/ individuals they should not be loaning money to in the first place. Secondly, it denies real business people, in manufacturing, agric, technology, construction, the money they need to grow as they are forced to compete for credit with conspicuos consumers.In the market it's willing buyer willing seller. 25% circulates cash in the economy, 14% only the govt and prime borrowers get credit. The consumer who would have bought the mitumba car foregoes consumption, and without his usual side hussles he consumes less goods and services then next nakumatt is not doing well,
deacons is not doing well etc.
Good point, I accept. However, to get even more money circulating in an economically beneficial manner, would it not be better to loan to good borrowers who will put that money to good use to generate jobs and even more money. This idea of willing buyer willing seller is another myth circulated by 'western economists'. Goverment control is always present, whether you see it or not. Goverment has a hand in pricing of all commodities sold in this country. Just because it chooses to show its hand more forcefully in the matter of bank loans is no reason to shout about controlling markets. how come nobody is complaining about free market when it comes to 90 bob maize? These theories apply when an economy has satisfied basic things like employment, food security etc etc. For as long as we have unemployment, money should go to industries capable of creating employment in multiples or commensurate with capital invested. Putting much needed cash in trade of mitumba and buying imported crisps, while local industries cannot expand for lack of the same capital is not wise.



They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
obiero
#2144 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 6:03:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
actuarywahisa wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Yaani people have time to respond to tom_boy
All the best


What makes tom_boy mad? Ama you'll classify me as mad as well for asking that? Laughing out loudly

First, Economic theory is not a science!

Secondly, why shouldn't someone respond if they are willing and have the time? I though this is a discussion forum and knowledge sharing is the spirit of Wazua. Watch out not to fall from that horse. Drool

@tomboy raises valid but unrealistic points in Kenya's circumstances.. He must have lived abroad. Fact is that the economy started falling sick under 24 years plus of economic misrule, Mwai Kibaki took us out of the ICU and we were almost discharged, but then 2007 happened, we thus remained in the ward, but in the last four years we have ended up in the HDU.. Corruption and bad policy will ensure that very few citizens in Kenya will ever get to drive a brand new car.

Also note that land across the world is classified as an appreciating asset.. Indeed better use of the same should be encouraged but comparing land to maize simply leaves me speechless

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
tom_boy
#2145 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 6:33:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
obiero wrote:
actuarywahisa wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Yaani people have time to respond to tom_boy
All the best


What makes tom_boy mad? Ama you'll classify me as mad as well for asking that? Laughing out loudly

First, Economic theory is not a science!

Secondly, why shouldn't someone respond if they are willing and have the time? I though this is a discussion forum and knowledge sharing is the spirit of Wazua. Watch out not to fall from that horse. Drool

@tomboy raises valid but unrealistic points in Kenya's circumstances.. He must have lived abroad. Fact is that the economy started falling sick under 24 years plus of economic misrule, Mwai Kibaki took us out of the ICU and we were almost discharged, but then 2007 happened, we thus remained in the ward, but in the last four years we have ended up in the HDU.. Corruption and bad policy will ensure that very few citizens in Kenya will ever get to drive a brand new car.

Also note that land across the world is classified as an appreciating asset.. Indeed better use of the same should be encouraged but comparing land to maize simply leaves me speechless
Vindicated at last. My points are valid = sound river road economic theorem, BUT unrealistic. Unrealistic why? There is nothing wrong with a little slowdown in the wrong areas of the economy. If only banks would wake up and lend responsibly, which they will eventually.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
alotoftalk
#2146 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 10:06:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/27/2015
Posts: 138
Location: Harare
lochaz-index wrote:
obiero wrote:
[quote=alotoftalk]If and when Kenyan banks return to the era of making super-normal profits it will be after 2019.

2017 - interest caps
2018 - IFRS 9 impact
2019 - upgrade of IT systems/recapitalization

https://www.euromoney.co...osive-effects-of-ifrs-9

http://www.moodysanalyti...mpact-banks-information[/quote]
Will IFRS 9 really find a ready home in this country. Regardless, Kenyan financial counters are in a tight bind. I'm out until further notice

Scbk and bbk have been easing into it. Not sure whether they have fully complied though.


None has done it yet. Though technically they should start ideally disclose impact starting HY 2017.

Stanchart and Barclays have the additional burden of BCBS 239 this year since their parent companies in the list of systemically important banks.

https://en.wikipedia.org...mically_important_banks

http://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d399.pdf
Investment philosophy development in progress...
Ericsson
#2147 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 10:36:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya's Treasury sets up a team to analyze the Impact of the Interest Rate Caps with a view of reviewing the law in next parliament
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#2148 Posted : Tuesday, July 11, 2017 10:40:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Kenya's Treasury sets up a team to analyze the Impact of the Interest Rate Caps with a view of reviewing the law in next parliament

This is not news. Dog bites man

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
winston
#2149 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 8:55:56 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Its amazing how government has ignored the voice of experts, International financial institutions, its own treasury mandarins, the real devastating effects across the banking system and the economy...is it possible that the only voice they will listen to is that of bandits? After all isnt this a 'bandit' economy?
omhangla
#2150 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 9:48:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/8/2013
Posts: 126
Ruto alisema hakuna law itakuwa reviewed. they should forget. The govt should just reduce its appetite for domestic borrowing and these banks will have enough money to lend. In fact the law should be reviewed to ensure that all interest, cost of loan, insurance, etc dont add up to more than 14%
Ericsson
#2151 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 10:01:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
omhangla wrote:
Ruto alisema hakuna law itakuwa reviewed. they should forget. The govt should just reduce its appetite for domestic borrowing and these banks will have enough money to lend. In fact the law should be reviewed to ensure that all interest, cost of loan, insurance, etc dont add up to more than 14%



You believe and follow what Ruto says.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
omhangla
#2152 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 11:36:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/8/2013
Posts: 126
I dont believe Ruto, but I also dont trust the banks. Kenyans will adjust. These banks have proved that they cannot operate in an environment of self regulation
obiero
#2153 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 12:26:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
winston wrote:
Its amazing how government has ignored the voice of experts, International financial institutions, its own treasury mandarins, the real devastating effects across the banking system and the economy...is it possible that the only voice they will listen to is that of bandits? After all isnt this a 'bandit' economy?

Dereva ni mlevi na makanga ni mwizi. Gari inakimbizwa na haina brakes. What do you expect

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Obi 1 Kanobi
#2154 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 2:09:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
@Tomboy, you are mixing Macro and Micro economics, thats why everyone is laughing at you.

Think of it like this;

Micro - Individual, ego, expect 45million answers to any question in Kenya because there are 45 million of us. I can buy a plot, or a mitumba car, or nyama choma and beer etc. Its none of your business as its my choice. In real sense, money is not wasted because as I waste the money, another individual is making profits. End result, no loss to the economy beyond the BOP in the case of imports (But lets leave international trade for now). Infact, it leads to economic growth resulting from the velocity of money (how many times a shilling changes hands in 1 hour, minute, day, second etc)
Macro - Govt, state,read policy, the hidden hand that influences the actions of individuals. This is the bit thats not working for us as a country and will not work as long as we have politicians as leaders. We can do very little as individuals to change the macro economic policy in the shortrun. In the long run the only weapon we have is our single vote.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
winston
#2155 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 2:23:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
winston wrote:
Its amazing how government has ignored the voice of experts, International financial institutions, its own treasury mandarins, the real devastating effects across the banking system and the economy...is it possible that the only voice they will listen to is that of bandits? After all isnt this a 'bandit' economy?

Dereva ni mlevi na makanga ni mwizi. Gari inakimbizwa na haina brakes. What do you expect


Wah!
mamilli
#2156 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 4:46:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 249
Location: Nairobi
winston wrote:
obiero wrote:
winston wrote:
Its amazing how government has ignored the voice of experts, International financial institutions, its own treasury mandarins, the real devastating effects across the banking system and the economy...is it possible that the only voice they will listen to is that of bandits? After all isnt this a 'bandit' economy?

Dereva ni mlevi na makanga ni mwizi. Gari inakimbizwa na haina brakes. What do you expect


Wah!


jesuLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
Gathige
#2157 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 5:13:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/29/2011
Posts: 2,242
mamilli wrote:
winston wrote:
obiero wrote:
winston wrote:
Its amazing how government has ignored the voice of experts, International financial institutions, its own treasury mandarins, the real devastating effects across the banking system and the economy...is it possible that the only voice they will listen to is that of bandits? After all isnt this a 'bandit' economy?

Dereva ni mlevi na makanga ni mwizi. Gari inakimbizwa na haina brakes. What do you expect


Wah!


jesuLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


And passengers are scrambling to board the vehicle to the uncertain destination


"Things that matter most must never be at the mercy of things that matter least." Goethe
aemathenge
#2158 Posted : Thursday, July 13, 2017 8:31:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
@Tomboy, you are mixing Macro and Micro economics, thats why everyone is laughing at you.

Think of it like this;

Micro - Individual, ego, expect 45million answers to any question in Kenya because there are 45 million of us. I can buy a plot, or a mitumba car, or nyama choma and beer etc. Its none of your business as its my choice. In real sense, money is not wasted because as I waste the money, another individual is making profits. End result, no loss to the economy beyond the BOP in the case of imports (But lets leave international trade for now). Infact, it leads to economic growth resulting from the velocity of money (how many times a shilling changes hands in 1 hour, minute, day, second etc)
Macro - Govt, state,read policy, the hidden hand that influences the actions of individuals. This is the bit thats not working for us as a country and will not work as long as we have politicians as leaders. We can do very little as individuals to change the macro economic policy in the shortrun. In the long run the only weapon we have is our single vote.


sasa wewe unaleta kazi kwa mchezo.

You could, at least, have waited until after the erections, when some form of sanity returns to the Republic of Kenia and the Virtual Republic of Wazua.
tom_boy
#2159 Posted : Friday, July 14, 2017 9:16:26 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
@Tomboy, you are mixing Macro and Micro economics, thats why everyone is laughing at you.

Think of it like this;

Micro - Individual, ego, expect 45million answers to any question in Kenya because there are 45 million of us. I can buy a plot, or a mitumba car, or nyama choma and beer etc. Its none of your business as its my choice. In real sense, money is not wasted because as I waste the money, another individual is making profits. End result, no loss to the economy beyond the BOP in the case of imports (But lets leave international trade for now). Infact, it leads to economic growth resulting from the velocity of money (how many times a shilling changes hands in 1 hour, minute, day, second etc)
Macro - Govt, state,read policy, the hidden hand that influences the actions of individuals. This is the bit thats not working for us as a country and will not work as long as we have politicians as leaders. We can do very little as individuals to change the macro economic policy in the shortrun. In the long run the only weapon we have is our single vote.


Dear Obi, this is the other myth propagated by our dear ' western economists'. To even imagine that micro and macro economics are two seperate entities is to confirm that the books our ' western economists' are reading have succeeded in brainwashing our thinking and seriously impaired our ability to interprete written matter into reality. That division of micro and macro is purely for teaching purposes but in reality micro feeds into macro and vice versa.

Picture the micro situation of individuals buying mitumba cars. Multiply this one guy x 1million ( hypothetical). Suddenly,the country needs several million dollars to buy mitumba cars, several million to buy spare parts, and fuel ( half of it wasted in traffic jam). Then we hear, oh, dollar demand has gone up. Shilling depreciating. No dollars to pay loans and buy fuel. Simplistic example but illustrates my point.

Viceversa applies. Govt regulates micro economy by putting in place policies at macro economic level. The two cannot be seperated. They should actually be taught as a mixed bag. That is the reality.

Keep laughing ' western economists' but its the truth.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
wukan
#2160 Posted : Friday, July 14, 2017 4:17:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,569
aemathenge wrote:
wukan wrote:
There is nothing new under the sun. These usury laws were used in US in the 1970's

Come again?


I missed your comment. You can read more from Alan Greenspan himself on why they had to de-regulate banking laws to avail credit to all income groups
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