I am a Warren Buffett fan. He was a student of Benjamin Graham who said:
"In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."
I believe I&M has a relatively clean loan book. I hope the CBK has been on them in 2015 to make sure all NPLs have been booked. The IFC, DEG and Proparco also give I&M funds to on-lend so I take it they look at I&M closely. And they should for the shareholders' sake!
If anything, I'd like I&M to 'over-book' NPLs [as well as provide for them] as a precautionary measure. The collapse of Imperial & the takeover of Giro slated for 2016 should bump up the market share in 2016.
I am happy to pick 'marathon runners' when I am looking at my retirement.
Unga - Food [We have to eat]
I&M - Banking [It is not going anywhere]
KK - Fuel [The demise of petroleum any time soon is premature]
KenRe - Insurance [You need it. Your family needs it]
Williamson - Tea [Simple pleasures of life. For thousands of years]
They above will suffer in some years but I can afford to run like Kenya's long distance runners. No need to show off for 100m, 500mn, 5km, 10km... I want to finish the marathon.
I am waiting for KenRe to announce. I expect a good profit thanks to the HUGE bond portfolio but I hope they didn't invest in Imperial Bank bonds or accounts.
Williamson FYE is 30 March. Good rains. Good prices. Decent exchange rate. An excellent 1H. I expect a bombastic 2H. 2 years running it has paid 40/- in dividends. I am a happy camper.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett