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directional forecast
karasinga
#1921 Posted : Thursday, December 21, 2017 6:54:33 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Karasinga your kenol kobil predictions is progressing well,what's your lowest price estimate?today I saw 14.75

best/worst case scenario(depending on how you look at it) 12.5 but first watch what happens <=14. best wishes and remember it is your money you will put at risk

thanx..the fear of losing is less in me than the excitement of winning

me like that attitude. They call it "calculated risk"... you are welcome.

We must pray for a brother.. I have not seen any time worse than now to take short positions at the NSE

something is cooking here...as at 1200hrs, 12,212,500 share have changed hands.


Elaborate please. Is it below average or above as compared to other days trades volume same hour?

it is way above average. The last time >=10M shares were traded a move followed.

If this vol spike breaks down 14 handle, target is 12.50 where the huge vol spike came in and produced the rally that topped out at 17 handle.

With what's happening in the crude pricing, a move down is imminent

Ohana is very smart. He has reduced debt levels (as a percentage of sales and assets) to a manageable level. At the AGM, there was a discussion on stocking levels and how KK prudently manages stock levels. They don't enter hedges for forex or products.

If KK will be hurt with higher oil prices and it is a "trader" which has some price protection thanks to price controls, what will the fate of a firm that is a net consumer of fuel be?


Higher cost of sales combined with fixed margins result in lower profitability.

Actually, ~18,715,300 traded. On the radar...

Any price <= 14 is value (as from today 21st Dec). IF and I repeat IF KENO achieves any price <14, please be informed correction is not over.I will engage then Cognizant of the fact that the imminent rally is part of correction.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
obiero
#1922 Posted : Thursday, December 21, 2017 7:27:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Karasinga your kenol kobil predictions is progressing well,what's your lowest price estimate?today I saw 14.75

best/worst case scenario(depending on how you look at it) 12.5 but first watch what happens <=14. best wishes and remember it is your money you will put at risk

thanx..the fear of losing is less in me than the excitement of winning

me like that attitude. They call it "calculated risk"... you are welcome.

We must pray for a brother.. I have not seen any time worse than now to take short positions at the NSE

something is cooking here...as at 1200hrs, 12,212,500 share have changed hands.


Elaborate please. Is it below average or above as compared to other days trades volume same hour?

it is way above average. The last time >=10M shares were traded a move followed.

If this vol spike breaks down 14 handle, target is 12.50 where the huge vol spike came in and produced the rally that topped out at 17 handle.

With what's happening in the crude pricing, a move down is imminent

Ohana is very smart. He has reduced debt levels (as a percentage of sales and assets) to a manageable level. At the AGM, there was a discussion on stocking levels and how KK prudently manages stock levels. They don't enter hedges for forex or products.

If KK will be hurt with higher oil prices and it is a "trader" which has some price protection thanks to price controls, what will the fate of a firm that is a net consumer of fuel be?


Higher cost of sales combined with fixed margins result in lower profitability.

Actually, ~18,715,300 traded. On the radar...

Any price <= 14 is value (as from today 21st Dec). IF and I repeat IF KENO achieves any price <14, please be informed correction is not over.I will engage then Cognizant of the fact that the imminent rally is part of correction.

I like the stability of this share. It rarely goes below KES 11 at least one is assured of the floor

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#1923 Posted : Thursday, December 21, 2017 7:29:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Karasinga your kenol kobil predictions is progressing well,what's your lowest price estimate?today I saw 14.75

best/worst case scenario(depending on how you look at it) 12.5 but first watch what happens <=14. best wishes and remember it is your money you will put at risk

thanx..the fear of losing is less in me than the excitement of winning

me like that attitude. They call it "calculated risk"... you are welcome.

We must pray for a brother.. I have not seen any time worse than now to take short positions at the NSE

something is cooking here...as at 1200hrs, 12,212,500 share have changed hands.


Elaborate please. Is it below average or above as compared to other days trades volume same hour?

it is way above average. The last time >=10M shares were traded a move followed.

If this vol spike breaks down 14 handle, target is 12.50 where the huge vol spike came in and produced the rally that topped out at 17 handle.

With what's happening in the crude pricing, a move down is imminent

Ohana is very smart. He has reduced debt levels (as a percentage of sales and assets) to a manageable level. At the AGM, there was a discussion on stocking levels and how KK prudently manages stock levels. They don't enter hedges for forex or products.

If KK will be hurt with higher oil prices and it is a "trader" which has some price protection thanks to price controls, what will the fate of a firm that is a net consumer of fuel be?


Higher cost of sales combined with fixed margins result in lower profitability.

Actually, ~18,715,300 traded. On the radar...

Any price <= 14 is value (as from today 21st Dec). IF and I repeat IF KENO achieves any price <14, please be informed correction is not over.I will engage then Cognizant of the fact that the imminent rally is part of correction.

I like the stability of this share. It rarely goes below KES 11 at least one is assured of the floor

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
karasinga
#1924 Posted : Thursday, December 21, 2017 6:02:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Karasinga your kenol kobil predictions is progressing well,what's your lowest price estimate?today I saw 14.75

best/worst case scenario(depending on how you look at it) 12.5 but first watch what happens <=14. best wishes and remember it is your money you will put at risk

thanx..the fear of losing is less in me than the excitement of winning

me like that attitude. They call it "calculated risk"... you are welcome.

We must pray for a brother.. I have not seen any time worse than now to take short positions at the NSE

something is cooking here...as at 1200hrs, 12,212,500 share have changed hands.


Elaborate please. Is it below average or above as compared to other days trades volume same hour?

it is way above average. The last time >=10M shares were traded a move followed.

If this vol spike breaks down 14 handle, target is 12.50 where the huge vol spike came in and produced the rally that topped out at 17 handle.

With what's happening in the crude pricing, a move down is imminent

Ohana is very smart. He has reduced debt levels (as a percentage of sales and assets) to a manageable level. At the AGM, there was a discussion on stocking levels and how KK prudently manages stock levels. They don't enter hedges for forex or products.

If KK will be hurt with higher oil prices and it is a "trader" which has some price protection thanks to price controls, what will the fate of a firm that is a net consumer of fuel be?


Higher cost of sales combined with fixed margins result in lower profitability.

Actually, ~18,715,300 traded. On the radar...

Any price <= 14 is value (as from today 21st Dec). IF and I repeat IF KENO achieves any price <14, please be informed correction is not over. I will engage then Cognizant of the fact that the imminent rally is part of correction.

I like the stability of this share. It rarely goes below KES 11 at least one is assured of the floor

13.7 it is... this is an opportunity for traders not investorssmile have high confluence at around 13
disclaimer
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Ericsson
#1925 Posted : Friday, December 22, 2017 9:38:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,626
Location: NAIROBI
4 trading days remaining for the NSE to close 2017.
Which counters will rock as the biggest gainers in ranking terms
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#1926 Posted : Friday, December 22, 2017 5:58:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,463
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
4 trading days remaining for the NSE to close 2017.
Which counters will rock as the biggest gainers in ranking terms

Of course number 1 is undisputedly KQ.. Wachana na hawa wanasema consolidation sijui nini nini.. The reborn KQ touched a 2017 low of KES 2.1 and a high of KES 18.50

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
karasinga
#1927 Posted : Saturday, December 23, 2017 5:50:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Mukiri wrote:
their Elliot wave works...?

Let me see.. could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell. Strong VAP around 16390
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Mukiri
#1928 Posted : Sunday, December 24, 2017 5:29:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
their Elliot wave works...?

Let me see.. could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell. Strong VAP around 16390


Interesting. Thank you. Would you know what force the futures market have on BTC? Could it be indicative of the price trend?

Proverbs 19:21
karasinga
#1929 Posted : Sunday, December 24, 2017 6:43:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
their Elliot wave works...?

Let me see.. could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell. Strong VAP around 16390


Interesting. Thank you. Would you know what force the futures market have on BTC? Could it be indicative of the price trend?

if you mean future's as in the next minute, hour or day, the trend is bearish unless 14942 is breached.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Mukiri
#1930 Posted : Sunday, December 24, 2017 8:41:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
their Elliot wave works...?

Let me see.. could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell. Strong VAP around 16390


Interesting. Thank you. Would you know what force the futures market have on BTC? Could it be indicative of the price trend?

if you mean future's as in the next minute, hour or day, the trend is bearish unless 14942 is breached.

Futures in derivatives markets.

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-...xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

Proverbs 19:21
karasinga
#1931 Posted : Sunday, December 24, 2017 10:15:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
[quote=Mukiri]their Elliot wave works...?

Let me see.. could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell. Strong VAP around 16390


Interesting. Thank you. Would you know what force the futures market have on BTC? Could it be indicative of the price trend?

if you mean future's as in the next minute, hour or day, the trend is bearish unless 14942 is breached.

Futures in derivatives markets.

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-...bt-cboe-bitcoin-futures[/quote]
my bad. learning continues... does bitcoin futures have any correlation with bitcoin usd? for BTCUSD it is headed to 9520 and wont be surprised if I see 5012 print. anyway, anything can happen. learning to analyze this thing buddysmile

merry christmas
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
murchr
#1932 Posted : Sunday, December 24, 2017 11:20:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
BTC is a bubble. Block chain technology is the thing.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Mukiri
#1933 Posted : Monday, December 25, 2017 3:07:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
[quote=Mukiri]their Elliot wave works...?

Let me see.. could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell. Strong VAP around 16390


Interesting. Thank you. Would you know what force the futures market have on BTC? Could it be indicative of the price trend?

if you mean future's as in the next minute, hour or day, the trend is bearish unless 14942 is breached.

Futures in derivatives markets.

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-...bt-cboe-bitcoin-futures[/quote]
my bad. learning continues... does bitcoin futures have any correlation with bitcoin usd? for BTCUSD it is headed to 9520 and wont be surprised if I see 5012 print. anyway, anything can happen. learning to analyze this thing buddysmile

merry christmas

Merry Christmas to you too, my good friend. May the Lord shower you with abundance.

Proverbs 19:21
karasinga
#1934 Posted : Wednesday, December 27, 2017 9:08:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Quote:
could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell...

later
IMHO any price >15013 might be value for possible short while high confluence at 15778. learning continues
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Mukiri
#1935 Posted : Thursday, December 28, 2017 1:18:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
karasinga wrote:
Quote:
could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell...

later
IMHO any price >15013 might be value for possible short while high confluence at 15778. learning continues

Thank you. Its unusual to see a decline in price on the eve of a fork.

Some good money can be made trading USD(T)/BTC; even more risky but equally rewarding is BTC/Alts (Alternative coins). Have a look at VEN. Japan unleashed VEN ATMs.

Proverbs 19:21
karasinga
#1936 Posted : Thursday, December 28, 2017 9:54:19 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Quote:
could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell...

later
IMHO any price >15013 might be value for possible short while high confluence at 15778. learning continues

Thank you. Its unusual to see a decline in price on the eve of a fork.

Some good money can be made trading USD(T)/BTC; even more risky but equally rewarding is BTC/Alts (Alternative coins). Have a look at VEN. Japan unleashed VEN ATMs.

the next 4 hour is very important. If the current demand zone is violated, around 8k may easily print. if the zone holds and 14563 is breached, be informed bullish trend has resumed which could be part of the correction. Otherwise the current trend is still bearish
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#1937 Posted : Thursday, December 28, 2017 6:46:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Quote:
could this be the beginning of a bear market? time will tell...

later
IMHO any price >15013 might be value for possible short while high confluence at 15778. learning continues

Thank you. Its unusual to see a decline in price on the eve of a fork.

Some good money can be made trading USD(T)/BTC; even more risky but equally rewarding is BTC/Alts (Alternative coins). Have a look at VEN. Japan unleashed VEN ATMs.

the next 4 hour is very important. If the current demand zone is violated, around 8k may easily print. if the zone holds and 14563 is breached, be informed bullish trend has resumed which could be part of the correction. Otherwise the current trend is still bearish

demand zone held. now only looking for longs as this may ultimately play out
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
shiznit
#1938 Posted : Monday, January 22, 2018 1:08:44 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 72
Location: KENYA
@karasinga any thoughts on the NSE counter? Been oscillating at 20/- for quite a while.
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
heri
#1939 Posted : Monday, April 09, 2018 9:45:36 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
@Karasinga, what are your thoughts on KCB, Safaricom
Mukiri
#1940 Posted : Monday, May 07, 2018 7:57:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
What happened to @Karasinga?

Proverbs 19:21
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