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directional forecast
karasinga
#161 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 9:41:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Othelo wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KPLC

BIG PICTURE


LAST WAVE


where are we?
wave v(of c or 2) is in the making

possible buy TARGETS
target 1 = 10.7
target 2 = 10.4
target 3 = 9.4


watch closely



Nice call, presuming that this was wave v of the downtrend, what should we expect from the current level of 9?


@mkate nusu, above targets were made on march 30th. alot has happennedto this counter since then. The following target has higher probability

target 1= 9
target 2= 8.8(high probability due to confluence of major gann level @ 8.6 and monthly pivot 8.8)
target 3=8.3

looking at the price action today around earlier projected targets, kindly step back.the bear is angry and its momentum has increased.
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


This one is joining @obeiro soon smile

@otheloThis one is joining @obeiro soon meaning? i am a bit knew with some terms
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Spikes
#162 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 9:50:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
karasinga wrote:
Othelo wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KPLC

BIG PICTURE


LAST WAVE


where are we?
wave v(of c or 2) is in the making

possible buy TARGETS
target 1 = 10.7
target 2 = 10.4
target 3 = 9.4


watch closely



Nice call, presuming that this was wave v of the downtrend, what should we expect from the current level of 9?


@mkate nusu, above targets were made on march 30th. alot has happennedto this counter since then. The following target has higher probability

target 1= 9
target 2= 8.8(high probability due to confluence of major gann level @ 8.6 and monthly pivot 8.8)
target 3=8.3

looking at the price action today around earlier projected targets, kindly step back.the bear is angry and its momentum has increased.
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


This one is joining @obeiro soon smile

@otheloThis one is joining @obeiro soon meaning? i am a bit knew with some terms



Meaning KPLC will plunge to @obiero's KQ current price.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
karasinga
#163 Posted : Friday, July 15, 2016 10:03:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Othelo wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KPLC

BIG PICTURE


LAST WAVE


where are we?
wave v(of c or 2) is in the making

possible buy TARGETS
target 1 = 10.7
target 2 = 10.4
target 3 = 9.4


watch closely



Nice call, presuming that this was wave v of the downtrend, what should we expect from the current level of 9?


@mkate nusu, above targets were made on march 30th. alot has happennedto this counter since then. The following target has higher probability

target 1= 9
target 2= 8.8(high probability due to confluence of major gann level @ 8.6 and monthly pivot 8.8)
target 3=8.3

looking at the price action today around earlier projected targets, kindly step back.the bear is angry and its momentum has increased.
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


This one is joining @obeiro soon smile

@otheloThis one is joining @obeiro soon meaning? i am a bit new with some terms



Meaning KPLC will plunge to @obiero's KQ current price.

ok. get it now.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.


It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#164 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 8:13:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
ICDC
could this be a bullish butterfly in the making. your comments and opinions highly appreciated

centum broke below the up trendline at 42.50 today. This is a bearish sign. This up trendline, currently with an ending point at 43.28, may now provide upside resistance. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--75% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
enyands
#165 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 8:19:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
karasinga wrote:
ICDC
could this be a bullish butterfly in the making. your comments and opinions highly appreciated

centum broke below the up trendline at 42.50 today. This is a bearish sign. This up trendline, currently with an ending point at 43.28, may now provide upside resistance. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--75% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant.



the bear is really biting.even with the coal deal for 200b its not sparking any hike??
karasinga
#166 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 9:02:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
scan
it this a possible bullish crab in the making?



your input plz

scan broke above the down trendline at 20.50, 1 trading day ago. This is a bullish sign. This down trendline, currently with an ending point at 19.88, may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---98% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. And with prices having only risen 0.00% since the breakout, the validity of the breakout is questionable.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
hisah
#167 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 1:55:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Good job @karasinga. TA aka cartoon world (charts) is very lonely lounge smile Other TA fans are SPT, metaspoilt, sparkly, mnandii, aluta to mention but a few.

From price action across the NSE20 components, majority are indicating lower lows lining up. Waiting to see what Mr Market decides to do when it touches 3300 handle or lower. But we're getting to the extreme side of things. The next bull will also respond in equal measure as the pendulum returns.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
snipermnoma
#168 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 6:25:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
hisah wrote:
Good job @karasinga. TA aka cartoon world (charts) is very lonely lounge smile Other TA fans are SPT, metaspoilt, sparkly, mnandii, aluta to mention but a few.

From price action across the NSE20 components, majority are indicating lower lows lining up. Waiting to see what Mr Market decides to do when it touches 3300 handle or lower. But we're getting to the extreme side of things. The next bull will also respond in equal measure as the pendulum returns.


If only NSE had rolled out derivatives, the opportunity to short would have led to some serious profit. We keep waiting but may be by the time they implement the bull will be back! Sitting on the sidelines has not been easy...
karasinga
#169 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 2:42:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KQ
my thoughts on the chart.


expectation.
a strong wave to come. either wave 3 or c of 4

targets
target 1= 4.85
target 2 =5
target 3=5.2

in the event KQ gets an extended wave 3, then most ambitious targets
target 4= 6
target 5=7.5


This is a breath of fresh air, but I feel that KES 7.5 is not a real target. Expect KES 8 in the short run and KES 14 by H1 release. I see money on the way. Ideally, at KES 12 I will most likely offload to pocket my KES 2,016,000 against an initial investment of KES 739,200

the pride of Africa has raised its head now. let's see what happens. minimum 5.3........smile
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
hisah
#170 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 3:17:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KQ
my thoughts on the chart.


expectation.
a strong wave to come. either wave 3 or c of 4

targets
target 1= 4.85
target 2 =5
target 3=5.2

in the event KQ gets an extended wave 3, then most ambitious targets
target 4= 6
target 5=7.5


This is a breath of fresh air, but I feel that KES 7.5 is not a real target. Expect KES 8 in the short run and KES 14 by H1 release. I see money on the way. Ideally, at KES 12 I will most likely offload to pocket my KES 2,016,000 against an initial investment of KES 739,200

the pride of Africa has raised its head now. let's see what happens. minimum 5.3........smile

KQ starting to changing behaviour. Currently attempting a breakout in a bear smile Close above 6.50 needed to start dismissing the bear pressure. @obiero sit tight smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
snipermnoma
#171 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 10:16:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KQ
my thoughts on the chart.


expectation.
a strong wave to come. either wave 3 or c of 4

targets
target 1= 4.85
target 2 =5
target 3=5.2

in the event KQ gets an extended wave 3, then most ambitious targets
target 4= 6
target 5=7.5


This is a breath of fresh air, but I feel that KES 7.5 is not a real target. Expect KES 8 in the short run and KES 14 by H1 release. I see money on the way. Ideally, at KES 12 I will most likely offload to pocket my KES 2,016,000 against an initial investment of KES 739,200

the pride of Africa has raised its head now. let's see what happens. minimum 5.3........smile

KQ starting to changing behaviour. Currently attempting a breakout in a bear smile Close above 6.50 needed to start dismissing the bear pressure. @obiero sit tight smile


Following. This bear is tearing down other stocks. Will KQ suffer the same fate? Bold stand by Obiero.
karasinga
#172 Posted : Thursday, July 21, 2016 7:03:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Arm
ARM has been on a downward trend from a high of 98.5 on 14th jan 2014. This decline has possibly been a zigzag (ABC) correction as shown below. The alternative wave count of 5 waves down, present on our chart, should be kept in mind to avoid being clobbered by Mr. Market if our wave count doesn’t favor us.

Our latest preferred count is that the wave IV of a 5-wave series from 48 ended at 34.5. The decline, since then, is believed to be working toward the end of wave v of 5 with the implication that the downtrend will be completed soon either forming:
1. Wave C, The last leg of zigzag or
2. (3) Of 5- wave series in a downward trend.
Expectation:
With the above two probable options, a rally is a must have.
Why is this so?
If the downtrend will complete C of zigzag, then five wave impulse upward will form
If the downtrend will complete (3) of 5- wave series, then wave 4 correction will form.

POTENTIAL REVERSAL TARGETS
With the news that ARM Cement will cede a controlling stake to a strategic investor after it opted to offer new ordinary shares to the new partner and increased the buyout cost by Sh1.4 billion. Instead of 12.6 billion they offer 14 billion


Target 1 = 27.15 (high probability because a major gann level at 26.8 and symmetry at 26.9 are forming a price cluster with this target)
Target 2 = 25.75
Target 3 = 22.8


could ARM be starting its longest wave 3? could ARM be a potential buy? time will tell.?bullish bat(letters in magenta) and a zigzag(letters in blue) making wave 2
targets 1= 43.5
if a extended wave 3 target2= 53


May you all have profitable trades.


and it came to pass, potential bullish bat formed.

expectation
If wave count is right and bat not forced, a strong wave 3 in offing.

let's see whether price action from today (21st july 2016) brings the potential opportunity that much closer (or farther) from the actual realization of the execution.
baby steps...

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#173 Posted : Friday, July 22, 2016 4:43:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Arm
ARM has been on a downward trend from a high of 98.5 on 14th jan 2014. This decline has possibly been a zigzag (ABC) correction as shown below. The alternative wave count of 5 waves down, present on our chart, should be kept in mind to avoid being clobbered by Mr. Market if our wave count doesn’t favor us.

Our latest preferred count is that the wave IV of a 5-wave series from 48 ended at 34.5. The decline, since then, is believed to be working toward the end of wave v of 5 with the implication that the downtrend will be completed soon either forming:
1. Wave C, The last leg of zigzag or
2. (3) Of 5- wave series in a downward trend.
Expectation:
With the above two probable options, a rally is a must have.
Why is this so?
If the downtrend will complete C of zigzag, then five wave impulse upward will form
If the downtrend will complete (3) of 5- wave series, then wave 4 correction will form.

POTENTIAL REVERSAL TARGETS
With the news that ARM Cement will cede a controlling stake to a strategic investor after it opted to offer new ordinary shares to the new partner and increased the buyout cost by Sh1.4 billion. Instead of 12.6 billion they offer 14 billion


Target 1 = 27.15 (high probability because a major gann level at 26.8 and symmetry at 26.9 are forming a price cluster with this target)
Target 2 = 25.75
Target 3 = 22.8


could ARM be starting its longest wave 3? could ARM be a potential buy? time will tell.?bullish bat(letters in magenta) and a zigzag(letters in blue) making wave 2
targets 1= 43.5
if a extended wave 3 target2= 53


May you all have profitable trades.


and it came to pass, potential bullish bat formed.

expectation
If wave count is right and bat not forced, a strong wave 3 in offing.

let's see whether price action from today (21st july 2016) brings the potential opportunity that much closer (or farther) from the actual realization of the execution.
baby steps...



me like this.
1. bullish engulfing candle
2. rotation
3. High volume
4. All happening in an area of interest

How is ARM fundamentals like?
will post the chart later. baby steps...

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#174 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 11:58:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
still tight
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
obiero
#175 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 12:01:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KQ
my thoughts on the chart.


expectation.
a strong wave to come. either wave 3 or c of 4

targets
target 1= 4.85
target 2 =5
target 3=5.2

in the event KQ gets an extended wave 3, then most ambitious targets
target 4= 6
target 5=7.5


This is a breath of fresh air, but I feel that KES 7.5 is not a real target. Expect KES 8 in the short run and KES 14 by H1 release. I see money on the way. Ideally, at KES 12 I will most likely offload to pocket my KES 2,016,000 against an initial investment of KES 739,200

the pride of Africa has raised its head now. let's see what happens. minimum 5.3........smile

KQ starting to changing behaviour. Currently attempting a breakout in a bear smile Close above 6.50 needed to start dismissing the bear pressure. @obiero sit tight smile


Following. This bear is tearing down other stocks. Will KQ suffer the same fate? Bold stand by Obiero.

May be it shall be third time lucky.. Sometimes investors have to turn into traders

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
karasinga
#176 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 12:14:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Arm
ARM has been on a downward trend from a high of 98.5 on 14th jan 2014. This decline has possibly been a zigzag (ABC) correction as shown below. The alternative wave count of 5 waves down, present on our chart, should be kept in mind to avoid being clobbered by Mr. Market if our wave count doesn’t favor us.

Our latest preferred count is that the wave IV of a 5-wave series from 48 ended at 34.5. The decline, since then, is believed to be working toward the end of wave v of 5 with the implication that the downtrend will be completed soon either forming:
1. Wave C, The last leg of zigzag or
2. (3) Of 5- wave series in a downward trend.
Expectation:
With the above two probable options, a rally is a must have.
Why is this so?
If the downtrend will complete C of zigzag, then five wave impulse upward will form
If the downtrend will complete (3) of 5- wave series, then wave 4 correction will form.

POTENTIAL REVERSAL TARGETS
With the news that ARM Cement will cede a controlling stake to a strategic investor after it opted to offer new ordinary shares to the new partner and increased the buyout cost by Sh1.4 billion. Instead of 12.6 billion they offer 14 billion


Target 1 = 27.15 (high probability because a major gann level at 26.8 and symmetry at 26.9 are forming a price cluster with this target)
Target 2 = 25.75
Target 3 = 22.8


could ARM be starting its longest wave 3? could ARM be a potential buy? time will tell.?bullish bat(letters in magenta) and a zigzag(letters in blue) making wave 2
targets 1= 43.5
if a extended wave 3 target2= 53


May you all have profitable trades.


and it came to pass, potential bullish bat formed.

expectation
If wave count is right and bat not forced, a strong wave 3 in offing.

let's see whether price action from today (21st july 2016) brings the potential opportunity that much closer (or farther) from the actual realization of the execution.
baby steps...



me like this.
1. bullish engulfing candle
2. rotation
3. High volume
4. All happening in an area of interest

How is ARM fundamentals like?
will post the chart later. baby steps...



my thought on the chart

baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#177 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 12:37:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
obiero wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KQ
my thoughts on the chart.


expectation.
a strong wave to come. either wave 3 or c of 4

targets
target 1= 4.85
target 2 =5
target 3=5.2

in the event KQ gets an extended wave 3, then most ambitious targets
target 4= 6
target 5=7.5


This is a breath of fresh air, but I feel that KES 7.5 is not a real target. Expect KES 8 in the short run and KES 14 by H1 release. I see money on the way. Ideally, at KES 12 I will most likely offload to pocket my KES 2,016,000 against an initial investment of KES 739,200

the pride of Africa has raised its head now. let's see what happens. minimum 5.3........smile

KQ starting to changing behaviour. Currently attempting a breakout in a bear smile Close above 6.50 needed to start dismissing the bear pressure. @obiero sit tight smile


Following. This bear is tearing down other stocks. Will KQ suffer the same fate? Bold stand by Obiero.

May be it shall be third time lucky.. Sometimes investors have to turn into traders

dont be hard on your self obiero. sometimes this happens.

As traders we must always have an expectation on price. We must consider the context of price to structure and have an expectation as to what price is likely to do next. One of the most important questions we can ask ourselves is "What does this mean?". Based on this conclusion we can then have an expectation on price behavior and forecast a future path. did i have any expectation b4 market did what it did? yes. look at the first target and orange trendlines on the chart all missed by a whisker. could be elliot wave expectation of wave c of 4 completed at a high of 4.8. but that is what it is, it the past. let now focus to what mr market has in store for us. learning continues. I am learning a lot from this bear for a bull to comesmile
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Spikes
#178 Posted : Sunday, July 24, 2016 12:36:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KQ
my thoughts on the chart.


expectation.
a strong wave to come. either wave 3 or c of 4

targets
target 1= 4.85
target 2 =5
target 3=5.2

in the event KQ gets an extended wave 3, then most ambitious targets
target 4= 6
target 5=7.5


This is a breath of fresh air, but I feel that KES 7.5 is not a real target. Expect KES 8 in the short run and KES 14 by H1 release. I see money on the way. Ideally, at KES 12 I will most likely offload to pocket my KES 2,016,000 against an initial investment of KES 739,200

the pride of Africa has raised its head now. let's see what happens. minimum 5.3........smile

KQ starting to changing behaviour. Currently attempting a breakout in a bear smile Close above 6.50 needed to start dismissing the bear pressure. @obiero sit tight smile


Following. This bear is tearing down other stocks. Will KQ suffer the same fate? Bold stand by Obiero.

May be it shall be third time lucky.. Sometimes investors have to turn into traders

dont be hard on your self obiero. sometimes this happens.

As traders we must always have an expectation on price. We must consider the context of price to structure and have an expectation as to what price is likely to do next. One of the most important questions we can ask ourselves is "What does this mean?". Based on this conclusion we can then have an expectation on price behavior and forecast a future path. did i have any expectation b4 market did what it did? yes. look at the first target and orange trendlines on the chart all missed by a whisker. could be elliot wave expectation of wave c of 4 completed at a high of 4.8. but that is what it is, it the past. let now focus to what mr market has in store for us. learning continues. I am learning a lot from this bear for a bull to comesmile




I can authoritatively conclude Elliot wave is more of psychological measure, double edged sword.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
karasinga
#179 Posted : Sunday, July 24, 2016 3:28:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
obiero wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KQ
my thoughts on the chart.


expectation.
a strong wave to come. either wave 3 or c of 4

targets
target 1= 4.85
target 2 =5
target 3=5.2

in the event KQ gets an extended wave 3, then most ambitious targets
target 4= 6
target 5=7.5


This is a breath of fresh air, but I feel that KES 7.5 is not a real target. Expect KES 8 in the short run and KES 14 by H1 release. I see money on the way. Ideally, at KES 12 I will most likely offload to pocket my KES 2,016,000 against an initial investment of KES 739,200

the pride of Africa has raised its head now. let's see what happens. minimum 5.3........smile

KQ starting to changing behaviour. Currently attempting a breakout in a bear smile Close above 6.50 needed to start dismissing the bear pressure. @obiero sit tight smile


Following. This bear is tearing down other stocks. Will KQ suffer the same fate? Bold stand by Obiero.

May be it shall be third time lucky.. Sometimes investors have to turn into traders

dont be hard on your self obiero. sometimes this happens.

As traders we must always have an expectation on price. We must consider the context of price to structure and have an expectation as to what price is likely to do next. One of the most important questions we can ask ourselves is "What does this mean?". Based on this conclusion we can then have an expectation on price behavior and forecast a future path. did i have any expectation b4 market did what it did? yes. look at the first target and orange trendlines on the chart all missed by a whisker. could be elliot wave expectation of wave c of 4 completed at a high of 4.8. but that is what it is, it the past. let now focus to what mr market has in store for us. learning continues. I am learning a lot from this bear for a bull to comesmile




I can authoritatively conclude Elliot wave is more of psychological measure, double edged sword.

@spikes. you've said it well. Let me quote Hamilton Bolton. He at one time said," As we have advanced through some of the most unpredictable economic climate imaginable, covering depression, major war, and postwar reconstruction and boom, I have noted how well Elliott' s wave principle has fitted into the facts of life as they have developed, and have accordingly gained more confidence that this principle has a good quotient of basic value."

The wave principle is Raphael Nelson Elliott discovery that social, or crowd, behaviour trends and reverses in recognizable patterns. using stock market data as his main research tool, Elliott discovered that the ever-changing path of stock market prices reveals a structural design that in turn reflects a basic harmony found in nature. many areas of human activity follow the wave principle, but the stock market is where It is most popularly applied.

Some say it is subjective while others say it is an unapproved theory. I say, it can benefit me improve my trading in several way.
1. It identifies the trend
2. It identifies countertrend price moves within the larger trend.
3. It determines the maturity of the trend
4. It provides high confidence price targets
5. It provides specific points of invalidation.

that said, I believe with good data and in combination with other tools in the market can be an arsenal.

no market is random. In my learning, I hope to make it my task to find market's natural order and exploit the opportunities.

baby steps...
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Ericsson
#180 Posted : Monday, July 25, 2016 3:32:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI

For the past 10 Years we have had 3 classic bear markets in 2008/09, 2011/12 and the current one from 2015 to date.
The current market correction ranks 2nd after the 2008/09 bear market with the market currently down by 35.74% since its peak in 2015.
We are currently roughly 369 points away from the 2012 low and slightly over 1,000 points away from the severe 2008/09 crash.
An interesting point is that the current market correction has taken longer to recover than the previous two experienced in the last 10 years. 2008/09 crash lasted 307 days, 2011/12 correction lasted 396 days and the current correction has lasted for 515 days already and we do not know how much longer it will take till it rebounds.

The best performers year-to-date are only 5 counters i.e. Kenol Kobil, BAT Kenya, Safaricom, Sasini Tea and CFC Stanbic with a slight 1% uptick.
The worst performing counters on the NSE 20 Index year-to-date are led by Kenya Power & Lighting Company, Nation Media Group, and ScanGroup
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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