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directional forecast
obiero
#1641 Posted : Tuesday, August 15, 2017 9:17:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

The market should open already

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Mukiri
#1642 Posted : Wednesday, August 16, 2017 6:39:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

Bulls have definitely overplayed their hand on this one. The resulting sell off should be equally brutal and unrelenting...that should catch most of the rally chasers unaware. The current recovery's pace is steeper than both the GFC and the 2011 bear(or any other previous bear) which leaves alot of questions unanswered seeing as the bull is not well founded. At this rate, a push towards 4200-4400 will come sooner rather than later but I smell a bull trap on this one. When everyone is buying into the peaceful elections narrative, the time to sell is imminent.

Let's see what happens after swearing in.. when all is seemingly well. Im sure there's another harvest in store

Proverbs 19:21
Mukiri
#1643 Posted : Thursday, August 17, 2017 9:55:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KEGN:
Missed the small rally and that's fine.
The truth is we will Win some, lose some, miss some. Better to miss a winner than sustain a loss. There is always another trade on the horizon.
IMHO. These guys are distributing now. watching with great interest

Thank you @Karasinga... What about this one that seems to have elicited some excitement

Kengen please? I wonder which is a better bargain Kengen or Kenya Power

Around election time, insurance stocks seem to soar? Happened last election

Hello Mukiri. This was an oversight. My apologies. As you might be aware I try to be very prompt. Hopefully there are no other post unanswered. If any by any chance, don't hesitate to repost.
Please note I have my reservation on stocks behaviour during election period and better bargain. time to learn. Fundamental gurus can give their part. Will post my chart later.
best wishes

#1266 May 23rd.
Happened last election, has happened this election and will most probably happen next election. 100%+ in a bear isn't too bad,no?

Proverbs 19:21
hisah
#1644 Posted : Friday, August 18, 2017 11:49:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

Bulls have definitely overplayed their hand on this one. The resulting sell off should be equally brutal and unrelenting...that should catch most of the rally chasers unaware. The current recovery's pace is steeper than both the GFC and the 2011 bear(or any other previous bear) which leaves alot of questions unanswered seeing as the bull is not well founded. At this rate, a push towards 4200-4400 will come sooner rather than later but I smell a bull trap on this one. When everyone is buying into the peaceful elections narrative, the time to sell is imminent.

I would exercise caution in this market until the euphoria witnessed wears off. Support cluster is 3850 and 4000 for NSE20.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
AndyC
#1645 Posted : Tuesday, August 22, 2017 9:55:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/21/2015
Posts: 151
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
karasinga wrote:
KEGN:
Missed the small rally and that's fine.
The truth is we will Win some, lose some, miss some. Better to miss a winner than sustain a loss. There is always another trade on the horizon.
IMHO. These guys are distributing now. watching with great interest

Thank you @Karasinga... What about this one that seems to have elicited some excitement

Kengen please? I wonder which is a better bargain Kengen or Kenya Power

Around election time, insurance stocks seem to soar? Happened last election

Hello Mukiri. This was an oversight. My apologies. As you might be aware I try to be very prompt. Hopefully there are no other post unanswered. If any by any chance, don't hesitate to repost.
Please note I have my reservation on stocks behaviour during election period and better bargain. time to learn. Fundamental gurus can give their part. Will post my chart later.
best wishes

#1266 May 23rd.
Happened last election, has happened this election and will most probably happen next election. 100%+ in a bear isn't too bad,no?

@karasinga What is screaming"buy me?"
sparkly
#1646 Posted : Tuesday, August 22, 2017 11:26:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:

@sparkly, are you waiting still waiting for 7.5?

Waiting to see the close for the day. Whether the bulls will regain control of lose out to the bears.

KEGN as at 1440hr 29th June
Find on the chart why I avoided this counter. Still waiting to see what comes out of it. Not yet clear

one of the most fundamental truth about financial markets is "anything can happen". If were you I would trade or is it tread carefully. might be the last leg north. best wishes


smile


Bounced off 7.50 as i had predicted.

Now filling the gaps between 9-10 then we will have a solid rally to 12-15.
Life is short. Live passionately.
bartum
#1647 Posted : Wednesday, August 23, 2017 4:24:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:

@sparkly, are you waiting still waiting for 7.5?

Waiting to see the close for the day. Whether the bulls will regain control of lose out to the bears.

KEGN as at 1440hr 29th June
Find on the chart why I avoided this counter. Still waiting to see what comes out of it. Not yet clear

one of the most fundamental truth about financial markets is "anything can happen". If were you I would trade or is it tread carefully. might be the last leg north. best wishes


smile


Bounced off 7.50 as i had predicted.

Now filling the gaps between 9-10 then we will have a solid rally to 12-15.

Meaning, ndaani ndaaaaaaani mpaka
sparkly
#1648 Posted : Wednesday, August 23, 2017 6:47:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
bartum wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:

@sparkly, are you waiting still waiting for 7.5?

Waiting to see the close for the day. Whether the bulls will regain control of lose out to the bears.

KEGN as at 1440hr 29th June
Find on the chart why I avoided this counter. Still waiting to see what comes out of it. Not yet clear

one of the most fundamental truth about financial markets is "anything can happen". If were you I would trade or is it tread carefully. might be the last leg north. best wishes


smile


Bounced off 7.50 as i had predicted.

Now filling the gaps between 9-10 then we will have a solid rally to 12-15.

Meaning, ndaani ndaaaaaaani mpaka


You can pick some between 9-9.25 and wait for the ride to 15 which is coming soon.
Life is short. Live passionately.
kayhara
#1649 Posted : Wednesday, August 23, 2017 8:04:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/5/2011
Posts: 1,059
sparkly wrote:
bartum wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:

@sparkly, are you waiting still waiting for 7.5?

Waiting to see the close for the day. Whether the bulls will regain control of lose out to the bears.

KEGN as at 1440hr 29th June
Find on the chart why I avoided this counter. Still waiting to see what comes out of it. Not yet clear

one of the most fundamental truth about financial markets is "anything can happen". If were you I would trade or is it tread carefully. might be the last leg north. best wishes


smile


Bounced off 7.50 as i had predicted.

Now filling the gaps between 9-10 then we will have a solid rally to 12-15.

Meaning, ndaani ndaaaaaaani mpaka


You can pick some between 9-9.25 and wait for the ride to 15 which is coming soon.

I expect the Kipevu switch off to affect the price a bit but still loading up with an offload target at 12/-
To Each His Own
Mukiri
#1650 Posted : Monday, August 28, 2017 10:34:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Mukiri wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
nashx wrote:
karasinga wrote:
nashx wrote:
Update chart on KPLC smile

If you check here, 7.7 printed... was within the expected zone but having had a simple wave 2, I wont be surprised to see around 7.6 print. If and I repeat if this happens, then expect the following to be potential sell targets
target 1 = 8.55
target 2 = 9.15
target 3 = 10.1(most ambitious)
best wishes


Thank you @karasinga for the tireless work you do here.Applause Applause Applause It seems I will have to hold on to this counter further till the day it goes back to the 13s

Target 1 achievedApplause Thank you.. Onto target 2Pray

Target 2 acheivedApplause with target 3 not being far-offsmile I bet if reviewed, 13 is attainable

And the 'most ambitious' has been attainedApplause Pre-bear 15 I have been really waiting for you

The Prezo will be welcomed with 15, I'm willing to betsmile

Proverbs 19:21
hisah
#1651 Posted : Wednesday, August 30, 2017 10:11:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1652 Posted : Friday, September 01, 2017 4:09:47 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#1653 Posted : Friday, September 01, 2017 4:27:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.

If international markets start tanking in Q4 especially with respect to interest rates the coming winter will be one for the ages.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
kryptonite
#1654 Posted : Friday, September 01, 2017 4:27:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.


Quite a rollercoaster ride
The harder you work, the luckier you get
Mukiri
#1655 Posted : Friday, September 01, 2017 4:59:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
kryptonite wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.


Quite a rollercoaster ride

What a relief today was a Friday! Two and a half days of sobering up

Proverbs 19:21
Cde Monomotapa
#1656 Posted : Friday, September 01, 2017 5:52:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Mukiri wrote:
kryptonite wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.


Quite a rollercoaster ride

What a relief today was a Friday! Two and a half days of sobering up


What a day, what a market! Like a Polaroid picture. 2 days? Let's see.
Cde Monomotapa
#1657 Posted : Friday, September 01, 2017 6:03:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
NSE 20 Index -139.84 -3.47% 3,887.28

hisah
#1658 Posted : Monday, September 04, 2017 4:50:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.

In two trading days NSE20 has plunged 5.48% and in the process lost 4000 handle as well as the breakout support at 3850 handle as it closes for the day at 3806. Next support cluster comes in at 3450 - 3600. 3797 was the July close while June closed at 3607. The July and August gains are indeed at risk of being wiped out! Strong shakeout.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Impunity
#1659 Posted : Monday, September 04, 2017 6:07:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,325
Location: Masada
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.

In two trading days NSE20 has plunged 5.48% and in the process lost 4000 handle as well as the breakout support at 3850 handle as it closes for the day at 3806. Next support cluster comes in at 3450 - 3600. 3797 was the July close while June closed at 3607. The July and August gains are indeed at risk of being wiped out! Strong shakeout.


What was the lowest handle during the 2008 PEV n the world financial crisis?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

obiero
#1660 Posted : Monday, September 04, 2017 7:04:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Think

Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later.

4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset.

September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat.

In two trading days NSE20 has plunged 5.48% and in the process lost 4000 handle as well as the breakout support at 3850 handle as it closes for the day at 3806. Next support cluster comes in at 3450 - 3600. 3797 was the July close while June closed at 3607. The July and August gains are indeed at risk of being wiped out! Strong shakeout.

There's no risk of August gains being wiped out, but a certainity!

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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