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directional forecast
karasinga
#361 Posted : Sunday, October 30, 2016 10:17:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Spikes wrote:

@Karasinga what is your take on Kengen's huge volume 752% above average in today's trade?


@karasinga, yes KEGN cartoon was helpful. It confirmed the mini rally that is expected based on the low P/B plus high div yield. @spikes has pointed out another issue about volume, my take is this is yet another confirmation of an uptick. FY results to be released soon.


KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 broke above the upside resistance level of 6.25, 26 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 6.25 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---92% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. However, prices have risen some distance since breaking out--8.03%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout.

having said that, there is a possibility wave 2 to form either:
1. flat pattern (check gold trend lines on the chart) to the said 6.25.
2. bullish bat pattern to 5.86 (has high confluence with volume at price @ 5.82)
currently price seems to be struggling(2 dojis) at a resistance offered by 200MA and the volumes seen in the last two trading days is not in harmony with price movement- indicating weakness.(This could be a "insider" offloading to wait for the price lower)

in my humble opinion, we can wait for price patiently between 6.25 and 5.82.(but do your due deligence)
hope this helps
baby steps...


The fundamentals to support this are in. PAT down and no dividend. Down it comes. Again cartoons pointed an expected outcome...that is coming to pass.

ON THE FLIP SIDE.
A deeper postmortem of KEGN, PA has for the last 2 days closed>200sma. This could mean high volume seen recently were breaking resistance offer by SMA(6.86). 5 day ADR is low(0.0825 cents) . It will be interesting to see what happens on 21st oct 2016. A close > 6.9 might confirm the bulls but a close < 6.9 might confirm presence of bears. Remember "anything can happen". PA is the king
Baby steps...

what.....! PA is the king...Applause


@karasinga Indeed. Weighted price today was 5.95. Anything can happen but cartoons tend to aid in seeing the direction the market is more likely to take.

KEGN:
Volume price analysis
1. Anomaly present. Price not in harmony with the volume. (Fig 2.)
2. Where are we?
The KEGN just experienced a panic move after an announcement of no dividends. A panic move because KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 having FY ended June 2016 revenue of 38.61 billion shillings versus 29.95 billion shillings year ago and FY ended June 2016 profit before tax of 11.26 billion shillings versus 8.69 billion shillings year ago- this company is fundamentally sound.

A deeper look KEGN has reached a point where no matter how much more effort (volume from wanjiku) is applied, is now resistant to lower prices, and the buyers (insiders/market makers) are knocking back the selling.

In my humble opinion, it is the selling which is happily being absorbed by the buying, and once again signals a potential reversal point as the market runs out of steam. If we were to imagine a profile of the volume bar in terms of selling and buying volumes, the buyers would just outweigh the sellers, reflecting the narrow price spread. After all, if the selling had followed through, then we would have seen a wide spread down candle, and not a narrow spread candle.

In a nut shell, towards the end of this phase (accumulation phase), the insiders usually marks prices down rapidly (see what happened on 21st Oct. 2016), flushing out more sellers, before moving the price higher later in the session to close somewhere near the opening price, helped higher by their own buying in the market, with bargain hunters (like wazuans) also sensing that the market is 'over sold' at this level.
3. RSI is oversold and diverging at the same time high volumes are present (Fig 1.)
4. Market at exhaustion points of monthly fib pivot points. (Fig 3.)
5. Expectation. High volume should be seen moving up the price (once market makers/insiders are done buying at wholesale) and an obstacle around 6.6 should be penetrated with high volume.
I think this is a reversal in the offing.
VVS and other fundamental gurus can guide or correct this

bearish bat in the making and accumulation phase in details(follow the numbers to get my thought process)
fig 1
closer look
fig 2
monthly pivots
fig 3
Baby steps…
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
VituVingiSana
#362 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 5:14:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
@karasingha - I don't buy GoK firms [except KenRe] so I haven't looked at KenGen in detail. Its costs are hard for a layman like me to understand. They have steam wells that are supposed to last 25 years but what if they do not? Is their production cost in line with lowest cost? Are they buying equipment at the best price/value?

KenGen had to convert debt into equity during the Rights Issue. Will that happen again?

Not my cup of tea.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#363 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 7:42:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@karasingha - I don't buy GoK firms [except KenRe] so I haven't looked at KenGen in detail. Its costs are hard for a layman like me to understand. They have steam wells that are supposed to last 25 years but what if they do not? Is their production cost in line with lowest cost? Are they buying equipment at the best price/value?

KenGen had to convert debt into equity during the Rights Issue. Will that happen again?

Not my cup of tea.

@wazua this mercenary was once a significant shareholder at KQ. And what's so different at KENRE

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#364 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 11:12:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@karasingha - I don't buy GoK firms [except KenRe] so I haven't looked at KenGen in detail. Its costs are hard for a layman like me to understand. They have steam wells that are supposed to last 25 years but what if they do not? Is their production cost in line with lowest cost? Are they buying equipment at the best price/value?

KenGen had to convert debt into equity during the Rights Issue. Will that happen again?

Not my cup of tea.

@wazua this mercenary was once a significant shareholder at KQ. And what's so different at KENRE


Trust
I did not trust KQ's managers in 2012 when they pushed Project Mawingu. I currently trust KenRe's managers.

Yes, once upon a time, KQ formed a significant portion of my portfolio. Then came "Project Mawingu" and I saw the darkness approach. In my naivete, I held on to the shares thinking that KQ's board, management and GoK will see the hole they were digging... Finally, in 2012, I bailed out at 13-14. Amen!

On why I hold KenRe? There's a thread somewhere on Wazua. Google it.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
lochaz-index
#365 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 12:26:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TPS

are there any fundamentals that might support this analysis?
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


I think you are onto something.

IMO it will be hard to break the resistance at 25 unless the second half 2016 numbers are very good.

25 is still +7/- from today's price of 18/- so that's a positive. I think 1H will be so-so but 2H is worth looking forward to ceteris paribus. I am in TPSEA coz of the management & "cheap" price.

I've been stocking up on this one lately - as and when I get cash. I would prefer the price lingers in the upper teens for a while longer before taking off.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mkate_nusu
#366 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 2:19:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
karasinga wrote:
TPS

are there any fundamentals that might support this analysis?
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


TPS is akin to EAPORTLAND cement in the making.
Too much competition going forward in their traditionally strong core business

*my analysis on TPS is contrary to that of most wazuans
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
moneydust
#367 Posted : Monday, October 31, 2016 6:03:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 303
mkate_nusu wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TPS

are there any fundamentals that might support this analysis?
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


TPS is akin to EAPORTLAND cement in the making.
Too much competition going forward in their traditionally strong core business

*my analysis on TPS is contrary to that of most wazuans


Same opinion here.I wonder why anyone would want to invest in this company as an ordinary shareholder.The tourism sector is too erratic for comfort.
Hii ni moto ya kuotea mbali..
karasinga
#368 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 8:55:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Spikes wrote:

@Karasinga what is your take on Kengen's huge volume 752% above average in today's trade?


@karasinga, yes KEGN cartoon was helpful. It confirmed the mini rally that is expected based on the low P/B plus high div yield. @spikes has pointed out another issue about volume, my take is this is yet another confirmation of an uptick. FY results to be released soon.


KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 broke above the upside resistance level of 6.25, 26 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 6.25 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---92% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. However, prices have risen some distance since breaking out--8.03%, thereby adding more validity to the breakout.

having said that, there is a possibility wave 2 to form either:
1. flat pattern (check gold trend lines on the chart) to the said 6.25.
2. bullish bat pattern to 5.86 (has high confluence with volume at price @ 5.82)
currently price seems to be struggling(2 dojis) at a resistance offered by 200MA and the volumes seen in the last two trading days is not in harmony with price movement- indicating weakness.(This could be a "insider" offloading to wait for the price lower)

in my humble opinion, we can wait for price patiently between 6.25 and 5.82.(but do your due deligence)
hope this helps
baby steps...


The fundamentals to support this are in. PAT down and no dividend. Down it comes. Again cartoons pointed an expected outcome...that is coming to pass.

ON THE FLIP SIDE.
A deeper postmortem of KEGN, PA has for the last 2 days closed>200sma. This could mean high volume seen recently were breaking resistance offer by SMA(6.86). 5 day ADR is low(0.0825 cents) . It will be interesting to see what happens on 21st oct 2016. A close > 6.9 might confirm the bulls but a close < 6.9 might confirm presence of bears. Remember "anything can happen". PA is the king
Baby steps...

what.....! PA is the king...Applause


@karasinga Indeed. Weighted price today was 5.95. Anything can happen but cartoons tend to aid in seeing the direction the market is more likely to take.

KEGN:
Volume price analysis
1. Anomaly present. Price not in harmony with the volume. (Fig 2.)
2. Where are we?
The KEGN just experienced a panic move after an announcement of no dividends. A panic move because KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 having FY ended June 2016 revenue of 38.61 billion shillings versus 29.95 billion shillings year ago and FY ended June 2016 profit before tax of 11.26 billion shillings versus 8.69 billion shillings year ago- this company is fundamentally sound.

A deeper look KEGN has reached a point where no matter how much more effort (volume from wanjiku) is applied, is now resistant to lower prices, and the buyers (insiders/market makers) are knocking back the selling.

In my humble opinion, it is the selling which is happily being absorbed by the buying, and once again signals a potential reversal point as the market runs out of steam. If we were to imagine a profile of the volume bar in terms of selling and buying volumes, the buyers would just outweigh the sellers, reflecting the narrow price spread. After all, if the selling had followed through, then we would have seen a wide spread down candle, and not a narrow spread candle.

In a nut shell, towards the end of this phase (accumulation phase), the insiders usually marks prices down rapidly (see what happened on 21st Oct. 2016), flushing out more sellers, before moving the price higher later in the session to close somewhere near the opening price, helped higher by their own buying in the market, with bargain hunters (like wazuans) also sensing that the market is 'over sold' at this level.
3. RSI is oversold and diverging at the same time high volumes are present (Fig 1.)
4. Market at exhaustion points of monthly fib pivot points. (Fig 3.)
5. Expectation. High volume should be seen moving up the price (once market makers/insiders are done buying at wholesale) and an obstacle around 6.6 should be penetrated with high volume.
I think this is a reversal in the offing.
VVS and other fundamental gurus can guide or correct this

bearish bat in the making and accumulation phase in details(follow the numbers to get my thought process)
fig 1
closer look
fig 2
monthly pivots
fig 3
Baby steps…

UPDATE
watching now with the new pivots for the month

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#369 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 9:05:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I have NO idea what all this means. All I know is that based on KK's (forecasted) PAT [excluding the KPRL write-offs] the profits are going to be very good. The price may not rise [election year, etc] but the payoff will come as profits continue increasing and folks see the value of KK.
I assume KK's board decided to clean up the books readying it up for a sale. Even though KPRL/GOK have agreed that money is owed to OMCs by KPRL, there is no consensus on when the money will be paid so KK is writing it off but the claim may remain out there for the future. A suggestion GoK/ERC rejected was to add KES 0.10/liter to fuel products that would go to payoff the debt KPRL owes to OMCs. A sale of KPRL's tanks/land would also help repay the debt. It's a matter of if not when.

[quote=karasinga]KENO

targets of wave 5
1. 12.3
2. 13.2
3. 15
more data,the more clearer it gets.
opinions and comments/criticism are highly welcomed
baby steps...

True to your word, "I will keep popping in to see what is happening"
welcome back VVS. long time no see. You are one among chiefs in wazua i keenly follow and listen to. I am therefore delighted to have you around.

my post on KENO almost always triggers our discussion(not to mention you can know which counter one holds based on their comments).
With all due respect, what this cartoon means is exactly what you put(fundamentally) but in a different form(technical). I am looking for a day when fundamentals will flow freely the way you make it look; easy.
feel free to post. your posts are food to my thoughts

UPDATE
the going is good

baby steps...
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#370 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 9:48:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 broke above the upside resistance level of 3.43, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 3.43 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--94% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00, you may want to place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature.
baby steps...

technically... my thoughts in the chart.

baby steps...

update.
current rally might be wave 4. just thinking....

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


a spinning top formed yesterday(26th Oct) indicating uncertainty/indecision. if a bearish candle forms today(27th) at this resistance level(7), it could be used as an exit point(if on board). High volumes seen in the last 3 trading days might indicate profit taking(offloading to wanjiku) by an "insider" to wait for KQ at a lower price. My fear is to wanjiku who will be wooed to the gallow by the sweet news. shaffing might start shortly...
will watch patiently for price action around 3.9
baby steps...

UPDATE


It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
VituVingiSana
#371 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 4:36:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
On KK, I see solid fundamental growth. The "Poa" promotion will push volumes up but I do not know why Ohana is pushing volumes over holding stocks are prices rise. The profit per liter would increase even after accounting for storage costs as prices rise.

On the other hand, if KK has committed to buying more volumes from suppliers then it has to push more volumes as the stock comes in. I hope that KK signs up many solid & high-usage K-Card holders during November!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#372 Posted : Friday, November 04, 2016 2:18:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
NMG
my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.

I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down.

UPDATE

baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

NMG is testing the overshoot! The poor HY results have given the bears teeth. Next critical support lies around the GFC panic floor cluster around 75 - 85 zone! Break below 75 handle will be very critical leading to losses towards next buffer at 30 - 50 levels!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#373 Posted : Friday, November 04, 2016 2:26:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 broke above the upside resistance level of 3.43, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 3.43 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--94% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00, you may want to place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature.
baby steps...

technically... my thoughts in the chart.

baby steps...

update.
current rally might be wave 4. just thinking....

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


a spinning top formed yesterday(26th Oct) indicating uncertainty/indecision. if a bearish candle forms today(27th) at this resistance level(7), it could be used as an exit point(if on board). High volumes seen in the last 3 trading days might indicate profit taking(offloading to wanjiku) by an "insider" to wait for KQ at a lower price. My fear is to wanjiku who will be wooed to the gallow by the sweet news. shaffing might start shortly...
will watch patiently for price action around 3.9
baby steps...

UPDATE



The extreme negatively had to be reset at some point thus the ugly gap ups to the current highs. As noted the volume spike is setting in at the highs which means distribution is taking place. The expected correction will likely retest the 4.50 resistance level now turned support before any further upside can be seen. The fact that KQ tested 3.4 and rejected further losses, which I thought wasn't going to play out is a solid warning to the bears to be cautious of a sharp turn ahead!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
karasinga
#374 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 6:24:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
VituVingiSana wrote:
On KK, I see solid fundamental growth. The "Poa" promotion will push volumes up but I do not know why Ohana is pushing volumes over holding stocks are prices rise. The profit per liter would increase even after accounting for storage costs as prices rise.

On the other hand, if KK has committed to buying more volumes from suppliers then it has to push more volumes as the stock comes in. I hope that KK signs up many solid & high-usage K-Card holders during November!

I see your point. more K-card holders = more loyal customers= more consistent profit. good marketing trick indeed.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#375 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 7:07:06 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
NMG
my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.

I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down.

UPDATE

baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

NMG is testing the overshoot! The poor HY results have given the bears teeth. Next critical support lies around the GFC panic floor cluster around 75 - 85 zone! Break below 75 handle will be very critical leading to losses towards next buffer at 30 - 50 levels!

I agree with you hisah. price overstayed in the aforementioned potential reversal zone, an indication of a possible failure. NMG still on the watch list. nice post Chief. keep them coming.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#376 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 7:29:04 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 broke above the upside resistance level of 3.43, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bullish sign. This previous resistance level of 3.43 may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--94% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00, you may want to place a stop loss just below the resistance level, in case the breakout is premature.
baby steps...

technically... my thoughts in the chart.

baby steps...

update.
current rally might be wave 4. just thinking....

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


a spinning top formed yesterday(26th Oct) indicating uncertainty/indecision. if a bearish candle forms today(27th) at this resistance level(7), it could be used as an exit point(if on board). High volumes seen in the last 3 trading days might indicate profit taking(offloading to wanjiku) by an "insider" to wait for KQ at a lower price. My fear is to wanjiku who will be wooed to the gallow by the sweet news. shaffing might start shortly...
will watch patiently for price action around 3.9
baby steps...

UPDATE



The extreme negatively had to be reset at some point thus the ugly gap ups to the current highs. As noted the volume spike is setting in at the highs which means distribution is taking place. The expected correction will likely retest the 4.50 resistance level now turned support before any further upside can be seen. The fact that KQ tested 3.4 and rejected further losses, which I thought wasn't going to play out is a solid warning to the bears to be cautious of a sharp turn ahead!

I cautioned us on 27th Oct because it was becoming obvious something was not right. An expectation that is continually being met. Market makers used "good news" to ensure wanjiku will always get it wrong. always buying at the top and selling at the bottom.
look closely how they push price up during the day(to entice) and sell off by close of business. doing everything not to scare the goose that made the golden eggs. what a pity!

price will only drop after they are done emptying their warehouses at retail prices. My eyes on the market.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Ebenyo
#377 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 9:36:39 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
@karasinga,Please give directional forecast for safaricom from now upto aprill 2017.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
snipermnoma
#378 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 2:04:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Ebenyo wrote:
@karasinga,Please give directional forecast for safaricom from now upto aprill 2017.


@Ebenyo as a start check post 320 on page 16. link
snipermnoma
#379 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 2:12:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
NMG
my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.

I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down.

UPDATE

baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

NMG is testing the overshoot! The poor HY results have given the bears teeth. Next critical support lies around the GFC panic floor cluster around 75 - 85 zone! Break below 75 handle will be very critical leading to losses towards next buffer at 30 - 50 levels!

I agree with you hisah. price overstayed in the aforementioned potential reversal zone, an indication of a possible failure. NMG still on the watch list. nice post Chief. keep them coming.


This one just cannot seem to stop the slide. The HY results were wanting and unless the FY results improve significantly, this one is not recovering anytime soon.

http://www.nation.co.ke/...html-t84n25z/index.html
Ebenyo
#380 Posted : Monday, November 07, 2016 11:00:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Othelo wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
[quote=karasinga][quote=brayosylvan]I have narrowed down my trading to Kengen, Safaricom and Standard Chartered- I want to make my money as consistently as possible mostly by dividend and stock value changes. I need someone to analyze these 3 companies; I make 3 trades per year and my projection is at least a minimum of 50% return on investment. Who has the dates and the graphs for 2017? I know safaricom has already announced closing date in December- kindly some analysis on the other 2 stocks...

@brayosylvan. welcome to this thread. Here we show the market as it is and currently learning to live on the right side of the chart as opposed to the left. left side is the past and past is the past, but can help us know where we are. Those are excellent thoughts and requests you have there.... any one to provide more data in excel format(OHLC) and will work on it. baby steps....smile

@brayosylvan. let me try scom. i repeat, let me try. hope this helps
my thoughts on the chart. hope this pattern and other before are not forced. its lonely here wazuan. opinions plz


IF HOLDING SCOM WATCH CAREFULLY
targets almost being hit.below is a chart as on 26th july 2016 at 1340hrs with targets well labeled.

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

'we' are in this until RIP so no worries smile


UPDATE
hope you wont mind my busy chart. will get clean with time

baby steps...


When a simple pattern develops in a wave ‘2’ position(like it did for scom), a more complex pattern that combines patterns may develop in the wave ‘4’ position. This is known as the guideline of alternation.possible buy target between 17.9 and 17.5

watching closely. baby steps.

@karasinga,good work.These will be good buy targets at 17.9 and 17.5 Let me remain hopeful.Realising this will continue keeping my abp low.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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