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directional forecast
sparkly
#281 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2016 8:37:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:

@karasinga any update on KEGN?

in my humble opinion, we have three possibilities(technically). hope you wont mind my busy chart(will get cleaner with time) . it is not easy to put in words what is on the chart. a visual representation might suffice.

1. ABCD harmonic pattern(triangles in blue)
2. bullish butterfly pattern(triangles in green)
3. Elliott wave (numbers in yellow)- MOST reasonable

reasons why most reasonable.
a. wave ‘2’ cannot break the start of wave ‘1’(ELLIOTT RULE)
b. positive reversal signal by RSI
C. volume above average involved
D. VOLUME AT PRICE(horizontal line in magenta) acting as support.
opinions and critisim/comment are most welcomed.
hope this helps. baby steps...




Sometimes the market moves in the opposite direction of the wave count like in the case of Britam.

i agree but only if wave count is wrong or while working with limited data("like in case of Britam") where alternative wave counts must be kept in mind

BIGGER PICTURE
bearish BAT in the making

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis



Above is the most likely scenario. Share trades at a valuation of 1/3 of the shareholders equity.
Life is short. Live passionately.
karasinga
#282 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2016 9:59:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:

@karasinga any update on KEGN?

in my humble opinion, we have three possibilities(technically). hope you wont mind my busy chart(will get cleaner with time) . it is not easy to put in words what is on the chart. a visual representation might suffice.

1. ABCD harmonic pattern(triangles in blue)
2. bullish butterfly pattern(triangles in green)
3. Elliott wave (numbers in yellow)- MOST reasonable

reasons why most reasonable.
a. wave ‘2’ cannot break the start of wave ‘1’(ELLIOTT RULE)
b. positive reversal signal by RSI
C. volume above average involved
D. VOLUME AT PRICE(horizontal line in magenta) acting as support.
opinions and critisim/comment are most welcomed.
hope this helps. baby steps...




Sometimes the market moves in the opposite direction of the wave count like in the case of Britam.

i agree but only if wave count is wrong or while working with limited data("like in case of Britam") where alternative wave counts must be kept in mind

BIGGER PICTURE
bearish BAT in the making

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis



Above is the most likely scenario. Share trades at a valuation of 1/3 of the shareholders equity.

sparkly, explain your statement in details, if you won't mind. fundamentals is my next subject

have not seen snipermnoma yet.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#283 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 10:24:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TCL
thinking roundly.

baby steps...

watching price action in particular 6.36.....

update


me like what i am seeing today

print of 8.1 at 1000hrs. equivalent to +26%(from 6.4) and going.Applause
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#284 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 11:22:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
EQT

I reserve my comments(for this counter) until EQT prints around 19.5
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#285 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 11:36:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
EVRD
A shallow pull back expected to the structure. max 2.5 then a possible final leg


update

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


behold, EVRD. prints 2.45. watching
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
snipermnoma
#286 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 3:54:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
EVRD
A shallow pull back expected to the structure. max 2.5 then a possible final leg


update

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


behold, EVRD. prints 2.45. watching


Good call. My history with paka means I would never touch it again not even for speculation.
snipermnoma
#287 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 3:58:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TCL
thinking roundly.

baby steps...

watching price action in particular 6.36.....

update


me like what i am seeing today

print of 8.1 at 1000hrs. equivalent to +26%(from 6.4) and going.Applause
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Up, up and away!
karasinga
#288 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 5:18:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
EVRD
A shallow pull back expected to the structure. max 2.5 then a possible final leg


update

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


behold, EVRD. prints 2.45. watching


Good call. My history with paka means I would never touch it again not even for speculation.

"Every moment in the market is unique" remember Mark Douglas. hope you read his book. otherwise, +20%. Welcome back snipermnoma. I hope KEGN "cartoon" was helpful.
baby steps ...
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#289 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 7:21:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TCL
thinking roundly.

baby steps...

watching price action in particular 6.36.....

update


me like what i am seeing today

print of 8.1 at 1000hrs. equivalent to +26%(from 6.4) and going.Applause
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Up, up and away!


no offense.
baby steps...
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Spikes
#290 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 7:30:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TCL
thinking roundly.

baby steps...

watching price action in particular 6.36.....

update


me like what i am seeing today

print of 8.1 at 1000hrs. equivalent to +26%(from 6.4) and going.Applause
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Up, up and away!


no offense.
baby steps...



@Karasinga nobody has made money there. Rallying again on vapour volume.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
snipermnoma
#291 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 7:46:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
EVRD
A shallow pull back expected to the structure. max 2.5 then a possible final leg


update

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


behold, EVRD. prints 2.45. watching


Good call. My history with paka means I would never touch it again not even for speculation.

"Every moment in the market is unique" remember Mark Douglas. hope you read his book. otherwise, +20%. Welcome back snipermnoma. I hope KEGN "cartoon" was helpful.
baby steps ...


I had posted a comment on KEGN cartoon...looks like it did not come through. I will repost. Mark Douglas I found the book, infact it is what I am reading now. I liked one line where he said "If you are unable to trade without the slightest bit of emotional discomfort (specifically,fear) then you have not learned how to accept the risks inherent in trading". That struck with me. I really need to get over these emotions.
karasinga
#292 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 8:19:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
snipermnoma wrote:

I had posted a comment on KEGN cartoon...looks like it did not come through. I will repost. Mark Douglas I found the book, infact it is what I am reading now. I liked one line where he said "If you are unable to trade without the slightest bit of emotional discomfort (specifically,fear) then you have not learned how to accept the risks inherent in trading". That struck with me. I really need to get over these emotions.

Thats a quotable quote right theresmile . every sentence in this book makes sense no-wonder mine is underlined all over. This is another one "If you want to start sensing the flow of the market, your mind has to be relatively free of fear, anger,regret, betrayal, despair, and disappointment. The threat of pain generates fear, and fear is the source of 95 percent of the errors you are likely to make. Certainly, you can't be consistent or experience the flow if you're consistently making errors, and you will make errors, as long as you're afraid that what you want or what you expect won't happen. Furthermore, everything you attempt to do as a trader will be a struggle, and it will seem as if you are struggling against the market or that the market is against you personally. But, the reality is that it's all taking place inside your mind. The market doesn't perceive the information it makes available; you do.The market generates information about its potential to move from a neutral perspective. At the same time, it provides you (the observer) with an unending stream of opportunities to do something on your own behalf" continue the read i hope it will change how we see this market going forward. Cheers mate
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
snipermnoma
#293 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 8:25:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
sparkly wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:

@karasinga any update on KEGN?

in my humble opinion, we have three possibilities(technically). hope you wont mind my busy chart(will get cleaner with time) . it is not easy to put in words what is on the chart. a visual representation might suffice.

1. ABCD harmonic pattern(triangles in blue)
2. bullish butterfly pattern(triangles in green)
3. Elliott wave (numbers in yellow)- MOST reasonable

reasons why most reasonable.
a. wave ‘2’ cannot break the start of wave ‘1’(ELLIOTT RULE)
b. positive reversal signal by RSI
C. volume above average involved
D. VOLUME AT PRICE(horizontal line in magenta) acting as support.
opinions and critisim/comment are most welcomed.
hope this helps. baby steps...




Sometimes the market moves in the opposite direction of the wave count like in the case of Britam.

i agree but only if wave count is wrong or while working with limited data("like in case of Britam") where alternative wave counts must be kept in mind

BIGGER PICTURE
bearish BAT in the making

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis



Above is the most likely scenario. Share trades at a valuation of 1/3 of the shareholders equity.

sparkly, explain your statement in details, if you won't mind. fundamentals is my next subject

have not seen snipermnoma yet.


I am here. Yes I agree with the scenario. What the chart is pointing at is an up turn and when I consider the good HY 2016 results a pointer to excellent FY 2016 results. Market cap at 1/3 of total equity. Price is back above rights. I think these all point to a rise in the share price.
snipermnoma
#294 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 8:45:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TCL
thinking roundly.

baby steps...

watching price action in particular 6.36.....

update


me like what i am seeing today

print of 8.1 at 1000hrs. equivalent to +26%(from 6.4) and going.Applause
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Up, up and away!


no offense.
baby steps...


None taken, I actually find the satire quite humorous. The logic and simplicity is clear yet these are the very things we struggle with in the market: not adapting to the changes. Sigh!
karasinga
#295 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 10:35:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
BBK
thinking roundly

baby steps...
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
snipermnoma
#296 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2016 11:41:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TCL
thinking roundly.

baby steps...

watching price action in particular 6.36.....

update


me like what i am seeing today

print of 8.1 at 1000hrs. equivalent to +26%(from 6.4) and going.Applause
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Up, up and away!


no offense.
baby steps...



@Karasinga nobody has made money there. Rallying again on vapour volume.


@spikes. The volumes are low, yes but the cartoon held its own. That in itself is impressive.
karasinga
#297 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2016 11:31:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
snipermnoma wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
TCL
thinking roundly.

baby steps...

watching price action in particular 6.36.....

update


me like what i am seeing today

print of 8.1 at 1000hrs. equivalent to +26%(from 6.4) and going.Applause
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis


Up, up and away!


no offense.
baby steps...



@Karasinga nobody has made money there. Rallying again on vapour volume.


@spikes. The volumes are low, yes but the cartoon held its own. That in itself is impressive.

on steroids but low volume. The beauty with such a run away train is you enjoy the ride if you boarded(by waiting for market to come to you) at the structure.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#298 Posted : Saturday, October 08, 2016 6:25:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
EQT

I reserve my comments(for this counter) until EQT prints around 19.5

I learnt from KEGN to always include all possibilities. An opportunity to go long labelled on the chart.

other than capping of interest rate, do we have ANY other fundamentals that might make EQT test 10? just thinking roundlyThink
criticism/comments and opinions are highly welcomed.
baby steps...
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#299 Posted : Sunday, October 09, 2016 5:32:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
KENO

targets of wave 5
1. 12.3
2. 13.2
3. 15
more data,the more clearer it gets.
opinions and comments/criticism are highly welcomed
baby steps...

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
VituVingiSana
#300 Posted : Sunday, October 09, 2016 11:30:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
I have NO idea what all this means. All I know is that based on KK's (forecasted) PAT [excluding the KPRL write-offs] the profits are going to be very good. The price may not rise [election year, etc] but the payoff will come as profits continue increasing and folks see the value of KK.
I assume KK's board decided to clean up the books readying it up for a sale. Even though KPRL/GOK have agreed that money is owed to OMCs by KPRL, there is no consensus on when the money will be paid so KK is writing it off but the claim may remain out there for the future. A suggestion GoK/ERC rejected was to add KES 0.10/liter to fuel products that would go to payoff the debt KPRL owes to OMCs. A sale of KPRL's tanks/land would also help repay the debt. It's a matter of if not when.

karasinga wrote:
KENO

targets of wave 5
1. 12.3
2. 13.2
3. 15
more data,the more clearer it gets.
opinions and comments/criticism are highly welcomed
baby steps...

DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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