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Oil prices.. how low can it go?
Swenani
#21 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 12:56:38 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,236
Location: Vacuum
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
enyands
#22 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 1:03:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel




That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan .
whiteowl
#23 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 11:08:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Kusadikika wrote:
Won't stay low for too long. Only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait can produce a barrel for less than $10. Another low cost producer is Iraq at $10.70. All other producers need higher prices to survive:

USA-36$
Canada-41$
Brazil-49$
UK-52$

And even the low cost producers need higher prices to fund their budgets. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain would run out of money in 5 years if prices remain under 50$. I would give it a year at most before prices are back up, at least above 55$.


The market respects no one.You can control the market for a long time like OPEC has been doing but eventually the market forces will carry the day.Its like somebody saying he bought britam shares at 35/= a year ago and if the share price doesn't go back to 35 he will be broke soon.This oil bear is a golden handcuffs situation on an international scale.
Aguytrying
#24 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 11:26:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
To answer the question. Even if oil traded at $0 per barrel, we would pay KES 50.00 per litre of petrol.
The KES 50.00 is made of of fixed costs which include government taxes, margins for oil marketing companies and distribution costs.

Im paraphrasing the ERC chair quoted in the standard yesterday.

Short answer. 50.00 For petrol
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
shocks
#25 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 12:12:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
enyands wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel




That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan .


Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely
maina20
#26 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 2:39:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 249
Location: nairobi
shocks wrote:
enyands wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel




That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan .


Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely

I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!!
..desire to succeed is always fighting with fear of failure..
VituVingiSana
#27 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 3:43:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
maina20 wrote:
shocks wrote:
enyands wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel




That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan .


Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely

I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!!

If the SS guys got their shit together, they would stop fighting amongst themselves and fund the pipeline through Kenya from the sale of the oil but they have played into Sudan's hands.

Sudan makes about $1mn/day from SS oil while not having to worry about the politics except funding some faction or the other.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kusadikika
#28 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 5:11:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,698
whiteowl wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
Won't stay low for too long. Only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait can produce a barrel for less than $10. Another low cost producer is Iraq at $10.70. All other producers need higher prices to survive:

USA-36$
Canada-41$
Brazil-49$
UK-52$

And even the low cost producers need higher prices to fund their budgets. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain would run out of money in 5 years if prices remain under 50$. I would give it a year at most before prices are back up, at least above 55$.


The market respects no one.You can control the market for a long time like OPEC has been doing but eventually the market forces will carry the day.Its like somebody saying he bought britam shares at 35/= a year ago and if the share price doesn't go back to 35 he will be broke soon.This oil bear is a golden handcuffs situation on an international scale.


I think the key to watch is the US. Prices will stay low only if the US is satisfied with low prices. When US is dissatisfied with low prices you can bet they will cook up something even if it means declaring Saudi Arabia an axis of evil or suddenly there will be a coup in Angola or Iraq will invade Kuwait....... as in some big s*it will happen that will rock the market and prices will be up again.
watesh
#29 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 5:35:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 955
Location: Kenya
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel

Without oil that SS wont have any foreign currency. More currency devaluation coming soon
muandiwambeu
#30 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 6:31:44 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
VituVingiSana wrote:
maina20 wrote:
shocks wrote:
enyands wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.
Simple arithmetic problems or you thought it was

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel




That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan .


Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely

I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!!

If the SS guys got their shit together, they would stop fighting amongst themselves and fund the pipeline through Kenya from the sale of the oil but they have played into Sudan's hands.

Sudan makes about $1mn/day from SS oil while not having to worry about the politics except funding some faction or the other.

Is it simple elementary mathematics challenges or @vvs you could not comprehend the figures in front of your eyes that you had to cook. Yes you are done with cooking, but the f@#kn shit thing is that the figure is approximately 10m$ daily or 3.600bs-$ annually or better said kshs360bn annually. That is equivalent to half of Kenya's commissioner of domestic taxes collections annually if my small brains have not forgotten the figures. Right before you and me, SS working for their better mortals. Unimaginable. Drool
This is crazy. Slavery at its best. Macharia should truly work with Silvia or they gonna sell those nationals to the devil for a song. Yawa @obiero help your brother here. This is shit, no need of owning a oil field or even producing oil, just have a pipeline then sit down and watch your wallet fatten. Sad{|= Sickquot; Sickquot;
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
shocks
#31 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 7:13:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
maina20 wrote:
shocks wrote:
enyands wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel




That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan .


Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely

I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!!

Alshababs obsession with Lamu (wachezaji wa kulipwa?), Machar and his boys. Sudan clearly protecting its interests
VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 7:16:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Nimerudi
#33 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 10:32:32 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/21/2015
Posts: 78
Location: Pare Pare
VituVingiSana wrote:
Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE


Interesting. The Iranians were to add another 500,000bbl post-sanctions. Is that even online yet?
obiero
#34 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 6:27:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
watesh wrote:
Swenani wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
South Sudan pays to Khartoum 24.5 U.S Dollars per barrel and oil price at USD 30 they are selling at a loss. Khartoum has refused to reduce charges and now South Sudan threatening to shutdown oil fields.

Things are thick!!



waaah

SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel

Without oil that SS wont have any foreign currency. More currency devaluation coming soon

Have equity bank staff resumed work? Calling for an adjustment by a factor of 6 was excessive despite the devaluation especially since it is not known whether the SSP may strengthen.. Adjusting pay into USD equivalent wld be sensible

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
whiteowl
#35 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 10:24:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Nimerudi wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE


Interesting. The Iranians were to add another 500,000bbl post-sanctions. Is that even online yet?


Goes online starting March
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 11:13:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
Nimerudi wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE


Interesting. The Iranians were to add another 500,000bbl post-sanctions. Is that even online yet?


Goes online starting March
Plus it's low quality [high sulfur] that only a few refineries can handle well so there's a limited market for it. Of course, the refineries can demand a lower price for the oil which does benefit us eventually but not as much (or fast) as we would like.

BTW, Brent trading on the ICE is not $30.58 so up 10% from the lows.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kyt
#37 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 2:13:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
that was quite a shocker, short position evaporated hivyo tu
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
VituVingiSana
#38 Posted : Saturday, January 23, 2016 5:55:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Brent up another 10% on ICE to 32.50 or so...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#39 Posted : Saturday, January 23, 2016 7:17:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
This is where Elliott becomes ever more useful. No need to bother yourself with 'fundamentals'. Elliotticians knew as far back as when oil was over $100 that it would fall!

Quote:
Most speculators were caught off guard by the dramatic price plunge. But the oil bust is no surprise to those who've read the third edition of Conquer the Crash. The book published in June 2014 with this chart and commentary:


[The chart] shows crude oil's bull market going back a hundred years. The structure is clearly five waves up within a parallel trend channel. … Look carefully and you'll notice that the 2011 peak -- the one labeled wave b -- precisely touched the upper channel line. Wave c should carry the price of oil below the 2008 low.


Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...eers.aspx#ixzz3y2Os1YMB
Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
enyands
#40 Posted : Monday, January 25, 2016 5:37:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Came across this article somewhere

"The highest price per barrel worldwide was about $140 ($140/barrel) around early 2014 and the price per litre (petrol) was about Ksh. 120 (Ksh. 120/litre). Now, the world prices have significantly dropped to $30 per barrel ($30/barrel). If we invoke simple algebra here, then the price per litre should not be more than Ksh. 45 per litre. One city in America which was charging about $4/gallon when the average world price was $140/barrel is now charging $1.60 per gallon (a 60% drop in the prices at the pump). Look at this:
If $140/barrel = Ksh. 120/litre
what of $30/barrel?
This computation returns a value of (120x30)/140 = Ksh. 26/litre (when adjusted for inflation and transportation costs, this should not be more than Ksh. 45/litre), which is equivalent to an average of 60% drop in prices at the pump worldwide {to be exact it is [(120-45)/120]x100=63%} . What is going on in Kenya is price gouging supervised by ERC. The petrol price per litre currently should not be more than Ksh. 50. Kenyans should demand access to information to know what has been going on at the ERC with regard to all the functions of ERC particularly the energy sector (energy products - gas, fuel, paraffin, electricity, etc.) and water services and pricing since ERC was formed. It has played with the minds of Kenya by reducing only 50cts, Ksh. 1.00 or Ksh. 2.00 per litre."
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