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ARM: A Time To Board?
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Othelo
#21 Posted : Friday, April 15, 2016 4:35:24 PM
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Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Ericsson wrote:
When are they expected to announce full year 2015 results.
Seems things are thick;they have taken long long to report

Cooking .................. latest 4 months after end of financial year .. 30th April lazima smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Fyatu
#22 Posted : Monday, April 25, 2016 12:02:29 PM
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Joined: 1/20/2011
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Location: Nakuru
seems to me like this mbus has already left Machakos airport
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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kimanimsc
#23 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2016 6:28:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/4/2015
Posts: 241
Location: Kahno
CDCGroup.com to invest $140m into @ARMCement1 cc @pradeeppaunrana @NSEKenya #Cement #Africa. New shares to be issued at 40.00 a share $140m equivalent @ARMCement1. $110m of $140m will be used to pay down debt @pradeeppaunrana @ARMCement1
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kimanimsc
#24 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2016 6:34:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/4/2015
Posts: 241
Location: Kahno
kimanimsc wrote:
CDCGroup.com to invest $140m into @ARMCement1 cc @pradeeppaunrana @NSEKenya #Cement #Africa. New shares to be issued at 40.00 a share $140m equivalent @ARMCement1. $110m of $140m will be used to pay down debt @pradeeppaunrana @ARMCement1

source: @alykhansatchu
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Plimsoul
#25 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2016 6:52:12 PM
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Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
kimanimsc wrote:
kimanimsc wrote:
CDCGroup.com to invest $140m into @ARMCement1 cc @pradeeppaunrana @NSEKenya #Cement #Africa. New shares to be issued at 40.00 a share $140m equivalent @ARMCement1. $110m of $140m will be used to pay down debt @pradeeppaunrana @ARMCement1

source: @alykhansatchu


$140m at 40 per share works out to 350mn shares. ARM has what, 495m shares outstanding? So CDC gets 41% of the company but that's not to boost earnings so much as it is to lighten the debt load.

I can't decide whether it's a deal or not.
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Ericsson
#26 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2016 7:41:56 PM
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Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,640
Location: NAIROBI
Seems the British govt are back to acquire gems in kenya.
So far CDC has banked the following properties in Kenya;
10% stake in I&M bank
40% stake in ARM;to be confirmed
Owner of ACTIS which owns the following;
Junction Mall
Garden City
Nairobi Business Park at Ngong Racecourse
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#27 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2016 7:45:57 PM
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Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,640
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Now let us see how CDC will steer the company to battle with Lafarge Bamburi Cement,Mombasa Cement,Simba and Savannah Cement who have eaten into the market share of ARM
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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sparkly
#28 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2016 9:49:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Plimsoul wrote:
kimanimsc wrote:
kimanimsc wrote:
CDCGroup.com to invest $140m into @ARMCement1 cc @pradeeppaunrana @NSEKenya #Cement #Africa. New shares to be issued at 40.00 a share $140m equivalent @ARMCement1. $110m of $140m will be used to pay down debt @pradeeppaunrana @ARMCement1

source: @alykhansatchu


$140m at 40 per share works out to 350mn shares. ARM has what, 495m shares outstanding? So CDC gets 41% of the company but that's not to boost earnings so much as it is to lighten the debt load.

I can't decide whether it's a deal or not.


Foreigners really love this share. I think it's safe to follow the big money with a target to exit with the big boys in 5-10 years
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Felipe
#29 Posted : Friday, April 29, 2016 11:53:36 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/2/2014
Posts: 38
sparkly wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
kimanimsc wrote:
kimanimsc wrote:
CDCGroup.com to invest $140m into @ARMCement1 cc @pradeeppaunrana @NSEKenya #Cement #Africa. New shares to be issued at 40.00 a share $140m equivalent @ARMCement1. $110m of $140m will be used to pay down debt @pradeeppaunrana @ARMCement1

source: @alykhansatchu


$140m at 40 per share works out to 350mn shares. ARM has what, 495m shares outstanding? So CDC gets 41% of the company but that's not to boost earnings so much as it is to lighten the debt load.

I can't decide whether it's a deal or not.


Foreigners really love this share. I think it's safe to follow the big money with a target to exit with the big boys in 5-10 years


5-10 years? I think NOT! Already Lafarge Africa has lost the cement business in Nigeria to Dangote. In Tanzania, Dangote cement is sold at Tsh 12,000 per 50 kg bag compared to ARM's Nyati cement (Tsh 13,000) verses imported cement which retails at Tsh 12,500. With a capacity of 3m metric tonnes per annum against a demand of 2.2m and a procurement of 250 trucks to handle distribution of the product across Tanzania, Dangote cement factory is the biggest in east and central Africa compared to ARM Tanzania which produces 750,000 tonnes per annum. This industry is highly competitive and soon overcrowded..
TA = Price Action + Vol + S/R + Trend + Pattern.
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Pesa Nane
#30 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 8:37:53 PM
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Joined: 5/25/2012
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Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Aguytrying
#31 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2016 8:53:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Was thinking about this share today. How will the cash injection affect p/l going forward. Ie how much will it reduce interest payment and finance costs. Effect of new shares to pe, NAV.
Anyone with interest please crunch these numbers for us.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#32 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2016 3:52:04 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Aguytrying wrote:
Was thinking about this share today. How will the cash injection affect p/l going forward. Ie how much will it reduce interest payment and finance costs. Effect of new shares to pe, NAV.
Anyone with interest please crunch these numbers for us.


CDC new shares - 353,665,200
ESOP- 21,000,000
Existing shares - 495,275,000

Total number of shares now- 869,640,200

PAT in last good year - 1,493,393,000 ( this is what it should get back to when "normal" profitabilty resumes)

EPS - 1.72

PE at (30 )- 17

dilution 43%

Factor in the fact that CDC got in at 40.00. But also remember their gross dividend is high, and maybe benefiting in other ways a minority wouldn't.

Also remember the high PE afforded to safaricom in the same market.

I don't know where its a good price to buy

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Fyatu
#33 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2016 4:02:57 PM
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Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
The CDC cash will boost the cash situation on the balance sheet and based on BV, i think it is a good buy at 27 bob
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2016 11:53:36 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
The CDC cash will boost the cash situation on the balance sheet and based on BV, i think it is a good buy at 27 bob

Most of the CDC cash will go to pay down debt rather than "holding cash" but that will have a positive knock-on effect of major savings on interest costs.
Some of the cash will be used to finance Working Capital which should help increase sales.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Fyatu
#35 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2016 10:26:34 AM
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Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
The CDC cash will boost the cash situation on the balance sheet and based on BV, i think it is a good buy at 27 bob

Most of the CDC cash will go to pay down debt rather than "holding cash" but that will have a positive knock-on effect of major savings on interest costs.
Some of the cash will be used to finance Working Capital which should help increase sales.


Indeed, the cash will pay of the debt and will increase total equity to a little bit over 30 billions shillings, consequently making the book value to be 35 bob (30b divide by 800 millions). I still old that anything between 25-27 is a very very good entry point for this gem.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Ericsson
#36 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2016 11:25:54 AM
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Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,640
Location: NAIROBI
The debt will be paid down and the company will take in new debt to consolidate the expansion done so far.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#37 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2016 11:34:11 AM
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Ericsson wrote:
The debt will be paid down and the company will take in new debt to consolidate the expansion done so far.

What do you mean "consolidate the expansion"?
CDC might be a good source for new debt. Perhaps at better pricing than the current set of banks or CP.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#38 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2016 1:56:40 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
The CDC cash will boost the cash situation on the balance sheet and based on BV, i think it is a good buy at 27 bob

Most of the CDC cash will go to pay down debt rather than "holding cash" but that will have a positive knock-on effect of major savings on interest costs.
Some of the cash will be used to finance Working Capital which should help increase sales.


Indeed, the cash will pay of the debt and will increase total equity to a little bit over 30 billions shillings, consequently making the book value to be 35 bob (30b divide by 800 millions). I still old that anything between 25-27 is a very very good entry point for this gem.


What's the NET asset value of ARM?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#39 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2016 1:58:43 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
The debt will be paid down and the company will take in new debt to consolidate the expansion done so far.

What do you mean "consolidate the expansion"?
CDC might be a good source for new debt. Perhaps at better pricing than the current set of banks or CP.


If after these losses the company continues to be debt hungry, I will not invest. They should have learned to reduce debt and a better equity to debt ratio
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2016 9:54:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
The debt will be paid down and the company will take in new debt to consolidate the expansion done so far.

What do you mean "consolidate the expansion"?
CDC might be a good source for new debt. Perhaps at better pricing than the current set of banks or CP.


If after these losses the company continues to be debt hungry, I will not invest. They should have learned to reduce debt and a better equity to debt ratio

I doubt CDC will allow Pradeep to go crazy with the debt. CDC must have negotiated veto powers.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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