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ARM: A Time To Board?
Mangs
#1 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:18:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 31
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?
Spikes
#2 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:23:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


A time to strategize.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Musyoka Daniel
#3 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:28:56 AM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 1/8/2016
Posts: 1
Location: Nairobi
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


I also think so, although Indian companies lack xenophobic appeal in Kenya, with the 2017 general elections in sight, I feel imminent devaluation might be underway.
enyands
#4 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:47:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
So layman since I'm not guru buy, hold or accumulate? And by saying devaluation what do you mean? Lastly provide link
Aguytrying
#5 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:59:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


Because the market is still bleeding, it is best to see the terms of the preference shares, it's like a bond, but dilutes from shareholders side. Without dilution I would say 30.00 is a good entry price. So let's revalue after the preference shares
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
moneydust
#6 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:01:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 303
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


Hii wacha nayo..the competition in the industry is too stiff and add to that, the huge foreign denominated loans...this is a share on its way down.
It reminds me of East African cables..It is a classic Value Trap.
Mangs
#7 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:19:28 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 31
As a long term play would xenophobic sentiments really have any impact on the company? I doubt the xenophobic levels in Kenya can get to such crazy levels like in S.A. We have more or less accepted Asians based on their business acumen and how they create opportunities around here and so weighing in the pros and cons shows we socially gain more from them as a country. Basing on the same as an investor, my focus would be the return on my shilling invested, xenophobia or not. For as long as there is potential of a good ROI, I wouldn't get deep into the social sentiments bit. The link for the planned Indian cement maker is here:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201512300861.html
MaichBlack
#8 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:47:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
There is negligible xenophobia in Kenya!!! Kenyans don't really care who owns a company when buying stuff!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:55:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Waiting to see the deal offered to ARM first. It could be a red herring too. Paunrana could pull a Merali on UltraTech & sell it to another party for a better price.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
whiteowl
#10 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 12:16:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
It would be good to see terms of the deal and also how long the bear persists.
enyands
#11 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 12:27:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
MaichBlack wrote:
There is negligible xenophobia in Kenya!!! Kenyans don't really care who owns a company when buying stuff!!!



As long as they get a good value of their money then they are good and set
doubletap
#12 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 5:25:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/17/2014
Posts: 132
Location: Wherethewindblows
Any insights on this stock? Developments?
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else - Albert Einstein
sparkly
#13 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 8:32:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Waiting to see the deal offered to ARM first. It could be a red herring too. Paunrana could pull a Merali on UltraTech & sell it to another party for a better price.


@VVS you always wanted a piece of this stock. Are you considering pulling the trigger?
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 8:57:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Waiting to see the deal offered to ARM first. It could be a red herring too. Paunrana could pull a Merali on UltraTech & sell it to another party for a better price.


@VVS you always wanted a piece of this stock. Are you considering pulling the trigger?
Not until I read/analyze how they are re-financing their debt.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2016 11:31:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Seems the "dilution" could be 50%
http://www.businessdaily...1/-/j1ws8u/-/index.html
Please note that it is a not a true 'dilution' in that ARM gets 14bn & 7bn of that accrues to existing shareholders. The repayment of debt will be a huge boon to ARM going forward.

*I am still staying away until I see the Annual Report and Recapitalization Plan*
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#16 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 9:44:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,640
Location: NAIROBI
Seems no one is interested in buying/taking over the debt of the company.
First it was UltraTech from India who then backed off.
Next was AFDB who it also have backed off
Now the Paunrana family want to create new shares and give half the stake to any willing investor wishing to take up the debt.
Seems things are thick.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Pesa Nane
#17 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 11:59:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Aguytrying
#18 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 7:51:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Seems the "dilution" could be 50%
http://www.businessdaily...1/-/j1ws8u/-/index.html
Please note that it is a not a true 'dilution' in that ARM gets 14bn & 7bn of that accrues to existing shareholders. The repayment of debt will be a huge boon to ARM going forward.

*I am still staying away until I see the Annual Report and Recapitalization Plan*


Things must have gotten thick for them to resort to such dilution. Through it though I still see the shareholder centric nature of the transaction. The company is avoiding an overburdening of debt, hence has abandoned a bond and preference shares.
I feel after this the affinity to a lot of debt will change. When price gets hammered it might be a good chance
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 10:05:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Seems the "dilution" could be 50%
http://www.businessdaily...1/-/j1ws8u/-/index.html
Please note that it is a not a true 'dilution' in that ARM gets 14bn & 7bn of that accrues to existing shareholders. The repayment of debt will be a huge boon to ARM going forward.

*I am still staying away until I see the Annual Report and Recapitalization Plan*


Things must have gotten thick for them to resort to such dilution. Through it though I still see the shareholder centric nature of the transaction. The company is avoiding an overburdening of debt, hence has abandoned a bond and preference shares.
I feel after this the affinity to a lot of debt will change. When price gets hammered it might be a good chance

Yes. The expansion plan was over-ambitious in hindsight but unlike KQ, the majority shareholders [Paunrana family] are not asking for a bailout from the taxpayers but are fixing the problem themselves.

I want to read the IM then make a decision as to what is an attractive entry point. It's not for the lack of opportunities but the lack of cash. I&M is at a sub-6 PER. KK is a 7 forward PER. Unga if it can 2x 1H profits is at 7 PER. And so on.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#20 Posted : Friday, April 15, 2016 2:38:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,640
Location: NAIROBI
When are they expected to announce full year 2015 results.
Seems things are thick;they have taken long long to report
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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