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ARM: A Time To Board?
Mangs
#1 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:18:17 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 31
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?
Spikes
#2 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:23:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


A time to strategize.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Musyoka Daniel
#3 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:28:56 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 1/8/2016
Posts: 1
Location: Nairobi
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


I also think so, although Indian companies lack xenophobic appeal in Kenya, with the 2017 general elections in sight, I feel imminent devaluation might be underway.
enyands
#4 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:47:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
So layman since I'm not guru buy, hold or accumulate? And by saying devaluation what do you mean? Lastly provide link
Aguytrying
#5 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 10:59:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


Because the market is still bleeding, it is best to see the terms of the preference shares, it's like a bond, but dilutes from shareholders side. Without dilution I would say 30.00 is a good entry price. So let's revalue after the preference shares
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
moneydust
#6 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:01:06 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
Mangs wrote:
The huge dollar denominated debt that was made worse by the weak shilling is bound to get a boost from the potential incoming Indian cement manufacturer, although the use of preference shares to accommodate the Indians will certainly cause worries for dilution. The counter is trading at the bottom of its 52-week threshold, the RSI is indicating a share price that's riding into undervaluation....what is your opinion NSE gurus? Is it time to board or there is a lot of weariness from the looming dilution also considering the general market is still bleeding?


Hii wacha nayo..the competition in the industry is too stiff and add to that, the huge foreign denominated loans...this is a share on its way down.
It reminds me of East African cables..It is a classic Value Trap.
Mangs
#7 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:19:28 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 31
As a long term play would xenophobic sentiments really have any impact on the company? I doubt the xenophobic levels in Kenya can get to such crazy levels like in S.A. We have more or less accepted Asians based on their business acumen and how they create opportunities around here and so weighing in the pros and cons shows we socially gain more from them as a country. Basing on the same as an investor, my focus would be the return on my shilling invested, xenophobia or not. For as long as there is potential of a good ROI, I wouldn't get deep into the social sentiments bit. The link for the planned Indian cement maker is here:

http://allafrica.com/stories/201512300861.html
MaichBlack
#8 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:47:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,838
There is negligible xenophobia in Kenya!!! Kenyans don't really care who owns a company when buying stuff!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 11:55:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Waiting to see the deal offered to ARM first. It could be a red herring too. Paunrana could pull a Merali on UltraTech & sell it to another party for a better price.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
whiteowl
#10 Posted : Monday, January 18, 2016 12:16:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
It would be good to see terms of the deal and also how long the bear persists.
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