I agree. He is a master of the game. Learnt from the best. But he knows his only chance is bagging at least 80% of the Kikuyu vote with at least 75% voter turn-out, after all, Kenya politics is sadly about getting the tribal equations right. I think getting the numbers from Central will be impossible unless he gets a very formidable DP from that region. His other hope is to ensure the Luhya and Eastern vote is divided and he can get through with the Kale and few votes from everywhere else, I think this is what he should go for and not concentrate all his attention in Central.

In 2013 when I was in the thick of things Ruto was the best guy to move the crowds. Uhuru was terrible in his oration. Halfway through you could tell he had lost the crowd. Ruto ended defining that campaign between analogues and digital. He fired up the base but still that was not sufficient to win the election.

Elections are ultimately won by moving the swing voters. The 2013 swing voters were urban voters Nairobi and PK fans. If those voters had not swung the election results would have been very different. The swinging of those votes was not Ruto's doing. So you overrate the guy too much.

Uhuru did not make it with that 2013 swing vote in 2017. He ended up relying on western kenya/kisii to swing elections in his favour. There is a huge portion of the 2013 swing vote that did not turn up in 2017. Therein lies Ruto's weakness. This constituency is not swayed by hollow speeches and Ruto has not found a way to connect with the urban voters.

So far Ruto has not been able to change the narrative that he is the face of corruption in this administration. Ruto has not been able to define any alternative policies from the ones pursued by Uhuru. Ruto carries the burden of the policy missteps of this administration. 2022 will be a referendum on this administration and Ruto will be home by noon.

Lastly discussing Ruto is the equivalent of discussing KQ-both are losers going nowhere but lots of pages to keep us busy.

Same company uhuru kept until he got what he wanted

My take is that Ruto is banking on uhustler, Christian outlook & money to give him the presidency.

Many Kenyans can see through that hypocritical smokescreen... His Presidency will Not happen!

Turn out in Central will be around 60%. Lowest since 1992.

Central will not vote religiously if they do not have a candidate. Merians usually vote for whoever serves their interests.

Crunch the numbers

Arap Mashamba's biggest threat is in his own RV backyard. Fortunately, for him, he has made more than enough enemies there.

The only way to sanitize himself(my two cents), is to surprise friend and foe, by confessing and asking for forgiveness for all the "perceived" sins he has been accused of, in broad daylight and even better, in a random church. This move, despite very hard to pull will put this small matter of corruption to rest and endear him more to the masses.Pressure will now shift to other "perceived" corrupt politicians to cleanse themselves.

What if Sonko becomes WSR running mate? Those reading too much on Moses Kuria wanjiku revolution just remember that they use the same chopper with WSR