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William Ruto is NOT going to be President in 2022
Rank: Member Joined: 9/25/2008 Posts: 510
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History..... Jomo - Buton passed by Jaramogi Mo1 - Passing Cloud, njonjos hand? Baks - Hands-off weak mlevi fella, late comer to ops politics Kijanaa - Reluctant Prezzi who can listen to mademoni for a second 2022????? Anybodys guess MDV Maybe???? Keep intellectualizing peeling a potato and you will cut your fingers, Kenyans have a funny way of voting like toddlers/cry babies en-mass at the chebarbar finish line.... I AM trust in GOD, I AM belief in THYSELF
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/27/2010 Posts: 951 Location: Nyumbani
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Someone old told me how families of wakubwas always blend wakubwas even after generations. Talked about the Bush family and the local village chiefs and their families in Kenya.Looking at the Kenyatta's , even after Uhunye, there are very high chances of having another Kenyatta as a president or a deputy one day.Maybe its the Kenya's and everyone else's obsession with names that leads to this phenomen**.Even though the Odinga's did not get to the presidency, the name will ofcourse come up fo a long time.There might be a Moi in 2022 and the young Kenyatta whom we saw in Champala meeting a guuka might come back one day to continue with the throne.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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2017 UMK can as well forget my vote. Better stay home than vote to continue with this mismanagement
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/20/2009 Posts: 1,402
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We moan as much as we like. But as long as we ascribe to ethnic politics and working tribes against each other...we will be in the same rut after 2017. I still cant believe how after a loong discussion at home on why we need to Vote Peter Kenneth....apart from two of us...the rest went and voted Kamwana..ili wasipoteze kura.
Upto now am told I threw away my vote
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2010 Posts: 1,797 Location: Kenya
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 concise @drunkard keep em coming I may be wrong..but then I could be right
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2007 Posts: 1,162
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In 2022, Ruto will make President. And the DP will be UK. Welcome to new Russia where the presidency is a tag-team led by Putin.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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majimaji wrote:
In 2022, Ruto will make President. And the DP will be UK. Welcome to new Russia where the presidency is a tag-team led by Putin.
Dream on
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2014 Posts: 1,652
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Muheani wrote:We moan as much as we like. But as long as we ascribe to ethnic politics and working tribes against each other...we will be in the same rut after 2017. I still cant believe how after a loong discussion at home on why we need to Vote Peter Kenneth....apart from two of us...the rest went and voted Kamwana..ili wasipoteze kura.
Upto now am told I gave away my vote Maybe that's why you are muheani  Hutia Mundu!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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Wamunyota wrote:Muheani wrote:We moan as much as we like. But as long as we ascribe to ethnic politics and working tribes against each other...we will be in the same rut after 2017. I still cant believe how after a loong discussion at home on why we need to Vote Peter Kenneth....apart from two of us...the rest went and voted Kamwana..ili wasipoteze kura.
Upto now am told I gave away my vote Maybe that's why you are muheani i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,325 Location: Masada
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T-Bag wrote:History.....
Jomo - Buton passed by Jaramogi
Mo1 - Passing Cloud, njonjos hand?
Baks - Hands-off weak mlevi fella, late comer to ops politics
Kijanaa - Reluctant Prezzi who can listen to mademoni for a second
2022????? Anybodys guess MDV Maybe???? 2017 - Tinga!!!!!!!!! Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2007 Posts: 1,162
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limanika wrote:majimaji wrote:
In 2022, Ruto will make President. And the DP will be UK. Welcome to new Russia where the presidency is a tag-team led by Putin.
Dream on This is what I've read from reading the tea leaves 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president
Jomo
Mo1
Baks
Kijanaa
Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him.
Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 1,063
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Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president
Jomo
Mo1
Baks
Kijanaa
Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him.
Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! That is why I prefer people like Mawinder who say like it is and don't hide in the political correctness BS.Ati the mob reaction resulted in the violence?Nonsense.Madoandoa lazima ingetolewa whether Baks won or not.The uprooting had started from November one month before the elections happened.Someone has to pay.This was premeditated. Consistency is better than intensity
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,274 Location: Kenya
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Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president
Jomo
Mo1
Baks
Kijanaa
Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him.
Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! @lonest!, I never favour any tribe, even my own. Everybody has a tribe, including myself, it is not a shame. But for me I've traveled all over Kenya and interacted with all tribes and this has made me see all tribes are equal. Back in days of HIGH SCHOOL, it was a "metropolitan" environment. So I'm different, I don't ascribe to the tribal alignment politically. I've criticized any stupid, tribal thing done by a tribe, whether my tribe or not. And I said here before that if you knew my tribe, you would be very shocked and respect me from that day... but I'm not in business of associating myself along tribal lines. All Kenyans are good to me as long they are not foolishly following their king-pins. So, regarding PEV, it was spontaneous. All those presidential candidates of 2007 were in Nairobi through the whole saga: Kibaki was in Nbi, Raila was in KICC with his "friend" Ruto... How in your mind did they start the violence. Yes, maybe their careless talk while protesting "kura yetu" made people to react more... Why don't we have video clip of these "madoadoa" allegations?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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AlphDoti wrote:Lolest! wrote:AlphDoti wrote:mpobiz wrote:In the years running to the following presidencyies nobody-kenyan- could contemplate , imagine or even dream of the following persons being president
Jomo
Mo1
Baks
Kijanaa
Can anybody tell me what they were doing prior to their ascension to power .in my take they were trying too hard not to look relevant and always trying to look weak. Singh is doing a great job in this and i believe if he keeps it that way the top job is guaranteed for him.
Lastly i don't believe he burned a church . We all know that after he delivered the kale vote to arap mibei . It was all upto arap mibei to do as he pleasured himself with the group and he decided to incite them to violence .
We all saw on TV all those fellows at KICC at all times. The mob reaction resulted in violence. The church was burnt after an athlete doing his practice in the morning was killed by youth who had sought refuge in the church, followed by a family car which was barricaded outside the gate and set on fire killing all four occupants (kalenjin man, his wife and two children). The reaction of the community around led to burning of the church. Sheikh Doti always fasshions himself as the holy nationalist! His true colours are always exposed when some tribe is mentioned! @ lonest!, I never favour any tribe, even my own. Everybody has a tribe, including myself, it is not a shame. But for me I've traveled all over Kenya and interacted with all tribes and this has made me see all tribes are equal. Back in days of HIGH SCHOOL, it was a "metropolitan" environment. So I'm different, I don't ascribe to the tribal alignment politically.
Hahaha..... That's laughable. Your hatred for Mt Kenya is too conspicuous and consistent in several of your write ups here. You are not being asked to change.... You know your heart .... Keep hating.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Rollout wrote:I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022.
Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation
Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to.
In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them.
The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves.
Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection
Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible
Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win
Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation.
Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation.
Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs.
As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it.
For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.
The biggest risk for DP Ruto is the Kalenjin community not voting solidly for Jubilee in 2017. With the current disagreements in the Kalenjin nation, there is a likelihood their votes will be divided between Jubilee, Cord and Kanu (Moi). Consequently though Jubilee will win with support from additional votes from Coast, North Eastern and Western regions, the results will leave DP in a weak position as the country looks at 2022.
One of the strategy CORD is considering is to have a presidential candidate for every major party (Wiper vs ODM) in their coalition ... Particularly if Kalonzo does not agree to stand down for Raila. In that case Governor Rutto can deputize Raila in a new coalition of 3 (Raila, Rutto, Wetangula). That would divide the kalenjin vote significantly and with Mudavadi standing on ANC and Kalonzo with Wiper, this may result in no single coalition getting 50% +1 of total votes. That would force the country to go for the 2nd round of voting and give Raila a better chance of winning using his popular 41 against 1 strategy again. What do you think?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/30/2008 Posts: 6,029
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Liv wrote:Rollout wrote:I have heard a lot of excitement from Kalenjin nation about the inevitable presidency of William Ruto in 2022. To be fair to Kalenjin nation, there are also loud expressions, from Kikuyu nation, of commitment to deliver presidency to William Ruto come 2022.
Does all these pass smell test? The answer is NO! Here are my reasons.
Reason: 1. Kikuyu nation will not support Ruto because they can win in 2022 without Kalenjin nation
Kikuyu nation can win presidency in 2022 without the support of Kalenjin nation, Kalenjin nation on the other hand cannot win presidency without the support of Kikuyu nation. Because of this imbalance Kikuyu nation will be stupid to handover presidency when they don’t have to.
In games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player always takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them.
The optimal outcome for Kikuyu nation is to have presidency again in 2022 and they’ll take that decision not because they can’t support a non-kikuyu but because every human being will take similar decision under the similar circumstances.
Reason: 2. Gentlemen agreements are always, as expected not honored and it’s not personal
Gentlemen agreements are meant not to be honored not only in politics but also in business. This is a phenomenon that has been studied widely; it’s also a very important aspect that makes the world work better. It’s no surprise that MOU are never honored, it not because Kikuyu nation is dishonest it is because the interest of every player making gentlemen agreement is to maximize the outcome for themselves.
Math and economics has somehow explained why gentlemen agreements are not honor in studies like dominance, backward induction, Nash equilibrium, evolutionary stability, commitment, credibility, asymmetric information, adverse selection
Kikuyu nation will not honor the agreement to support Ruto in 2022 because even science do not support it and at the end of the day their strategists will sit down and relay on science to make decisions. That decision is predictable.
Reason: 3. a possible winning coalition outside Jubilee is impossible
Because Kalenjin nation cannot win alone, the other path Ruto can take is to form a coalition of his own. As Kenya politics stand, Ruto will have to combine with Luhya Nation and Kamba Nation in order to form a strong enough coalition to win presidency. Combine with both Nations will leave Kikuyu nation without a potential partner; however, games of strategy will tell you that either of the two potential partners will be better off taking number 2 position in a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation than number 3 position in a coalition formed by Kalenjin nation.
Reason: 4. even an improbable coalition with RAO as the DP and Ruto as President will not win
Kikuyu nation has two advantages that are hard to overcome in 2017 and 2022, the incumbency advantage and the advantage that comes with being the largest and the most sold voting bloc. Addition of one partner will win them the election regardless of who the partner is. The challenge for opponents of Kikuyu nation voting bloc is that they not only have to form a coalition of their own but they also must keep others from forming a coalition with Kikuyu nation.
Given what we know, Kikuyu nation will not have a problem finding a partner and the opponents will have a lot of problems keeping partners away from Kikuyu nation.
Reason: 5 No coalition can beat a coalition formed by Kikuyu nation and Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not the lead.
Kikuyu nation will not be in a coalition that is not led by their own not because they can’t support other tribes but because it doesn’t make any logical sense. In a games of strategy where the participants have incomplete information about the others' intention, each player, as expected, will takes decisions which maximize the outcome for them. Kikuyu nation should not apologize or be scorned for picking the logical choice and optimizing the outcome for themselves.
Moral Lesson: The largest tribe or an incumbent will win every election until we stop voting along tribal blocs.
As long as we still have Kalenjin nation, Kamba nation, Kikuyu nation, Luo nation, Luhya nation and Coast nation voting blocs. Kikuyu nation will win because they are the largest tribe and they hold incumbency advantage. Kikuyu nation should not apologize for it because this is a game of numbers and game of strategy, they have an advantage and they have a right to use it.
For all the other losing nations, the only legal way to win presidency is to dissolve tribal voting blocs and integrate the country into one, otherwise this is a race for Deputy Presidency and the smaller/weaker coalition partner. William Ruto and Kalenjin nation will understand this in 2022.
The biggest risk for DP Ruto is the Kalenjin community not voting solidly for Jubilee in 2017. With the current disagreements in the Kalenjin nation, there is a likelihood their votes will be divided between Jubilee, Cord and Kanu (Moi). Consequently though Jubilee will win with support from additional votes from Coast, North Eastern and Western regions, the results will leave DP in a weak position as the country looks at 2022.
One of the strategy CORD is considering is to have a presidential candidate for every major party (Wiper vs ODM) in their coalition ... Particularly if Kalonzo does not agree to stand down for Raila. In that case Governor Rutto can deputize Raila in a new coalition of 3 (Raila, Rutto, Wetangula). That would divide the kalenjin vote significantly and with Mudavadi standing on ANC and Kalonzo with Wiper, this may result in no single coalition getting 50% +1 of total votes. That would force the country to go for the 2nd round of voting and give Raila a better chance of winning using his popular 41 against 1 strategy again. What do you think?
Genius. Cord should take you as their strategist. This is a winning formula. A slight correction, KANU cannot field a candidate against Uhuru.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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If UMK doesn't make it in 2017 due to poor economy, wsr should forget 2022. If UMK wins 2017 and economy deteriorates wsr should forget 2022. And am not even talking about ICc
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Wazua
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William Ruto is NOT going to be President in 2022
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