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Flame Tree Group HY15 PAT up marginally
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:kimanimsc wrote:
FTGH @ 4.80
from this low ,downwards i shall take small bites of flame tree Me too. Below 5 im a buyer. I wanted below 6. but due to the high risk profile of being a small cap im doing 5.50 to 5.00 and below. This share can quadruple someones wealth no joke. I find it interesting how the buying price targets are similar among wazuans. in my independent analysis i want below 5. and so does @mlennyma. Above @VVS has a target of 36 for equity. @sparkly 35-30 for equity in kengen thread. And mine for equity was 33, but now at below 37.00 after Q1 results. Very interesting @Aguy, Consider this: -Rwanda land. Reminds me of Diniz, Merali -G. Kichennin, Executive Director; I. Kichennin, Executive Director -Chair, we will expand to other sectors -CEO, we will only grow the manufacturing and trading business where we operate. -Ksh. 10,128,628.00 CASH is heldup in Imperial Bank (is that all?) -And by the way, who are the auditors? Please elaborate. Is there a merali relation or affiliation here. I need to know this @Aguy, this is the same old story we discussed where the company bought land in Kigali for RwF 65,000,000.00 only to sell it to Bangera the CEO at a huge discount just before listing at RwF 40,000,000.00! And not on CASH basis, but payable in installments over 36 months!!! Bangera, Faida, Imperial, PKF and Mauritius in one sentence  Scary. Thanks. Where there's smoke... @VVS what do you think The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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 Forget the hype, their manufacturing is zilch Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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I need to read up again on the RWF 65mn to 40mn matter. If true then it's a black mark against the CEO. I support manufacturing in Kenya but it is a tough business when GoK doesn't support manufacturers with the implementation of policies. As @PesaNane pointed out, trading was far more profitable. Look at today's BD article: http://www.businessdaily...-/146qg7gz/-/index.html
Tanks: FTGH is a regional player and that helps mitigate bad years in a single country. That said, there's a lot of competition. Making tanks isn't rocket science. Low(er) oil prices = low(er) prices of raw materials & transport which is a plus. FMCG: Volumes. Can FTG push volumes and build a brand? Low margin items with many competitors. One misstep and you are done. Beauty Products: Not a segment I have in-depth knowledge of. High margins in the mid-high segment. Brand building isn't cheap but key. Lots of competition. The PER (based on 2015 EPS) looks attractive. The acquisitions in 2016 will deplete the cash, interest costs will rise and operational costs will increase. I am in FTG and picking up more. The tipping point is the CEO still has 80% of the shares. He is quite young (40s) so is likely open to change and technology. All the above said, if he turns out to be a Matu... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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VituVingiSana wrote:I need to read up again on the RWF 65mn to 40mn matter. If true then it's a black mark against the CEO.I support manufacturing in Kenya but it is a tough business when GoK doesn't support manufacturers with the implementation of policies. As @PesaNane pointed out, trading was far more profitable. Look at today's BD article: http://www.businessdaily...-/146qg7gz/-/index.html
Tanks: FTGH is a regional player and that helps mitigate bad years in a single country. That said, there's a lot of competition. Making tanks isn't rocket science. Low(er) oil prices = low(er) prices of raw materials & transport which is a plus. FMCG: Volumes. Can FTG push volumes and build a brand? Low margin items with many competitors. One misstep and you are done. Beauty Products: Not a segment I have in-depth knowledge of. High margins in the mid-high segment. Brand building isn't cheap but key. Lots of competition. The PER (based on 2015 EPS) looks attractive. The acquisitions in 2016 will deplete the cash, interest costs will rise and operational costs will increase. I am in FTG and picking up more. The tipping point is the CEO still has 80% of the shares. He is quite young (40s) so is likely open to change and technology. All the above said, if he turns out to be a Matu... From the listing statement "The property is yet to be valued"Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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VituVingiSana wrote:I need to read up again on the RWF 65mn to 40mn matter. If true then it's a black mark against the CEO. In listing statement, attached.I support manufacturing in Kenya but it is a tough business when GoK doesn't support manufacturers with the implementation of policies. As @PesaNane pointed out, trading was far more profitable. Look at today's BD article: http://www.businessdaily...-/146qg7gz/-/index.html
Tanks: FTGH is a regional player and that helps mitigate bad years in a single country. Nope. Their FY14 manufacturing recorded a LOSSThat said, there's a lot of competition. Making tanks isn't rocket science. Low(er) oil prices = low(er) prices of raw materials & transport which is a plus. FMCG: Volumes. Can FTG push volumes and build a brand?At the moment they are just buying rather than building. Problem in their buying is that they end up having same product from different companies creating competition from within rather than build synergies Low margin items with many competitors. One misstep and you are done. Beauty Products: Not a segment I have in-depth knowledge of. High margins in the mid-high segment. Brand building isn't cheap but key. Lots of competition.Again, more competition from within than create synergiesThe PER (based on 2015 EPS) looks attractive. At the right price, (quick) money will be made (have one hand at the eject button always) The acquisitions in 2016 will deplete the cash, interest costs will rise and operational costs will increase. Team capital preservation keep off, this is the stuff that gets beaten to Ksh.1 I am in FTG and picking up more. The tipping point is the CEO still has 80% of the shares. Problem is usually when stripping begins, the 80% means nothing. Ref M-atu, M-Rali, D-Niz He is quite young (40s) so is likely open to change and technology. All the above said, if he turns out to be a Matu... Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Hello Joined: 10/16/2015 Posts: 5 Location: Nairobi
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Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:kimanimsc wrote:
FTGH @ 4.80
from this low ,downwards i shall take small bites of flame tree Me too. Below 5 im a buyer. I wanted below 6. but due to the high risk profile of being a small cap im doing 5.50 to 5.00 and below. This share can quadruple someones wealth no joke. I find it interesting how the buying price targets are similar among wazuans. in my independent analysis i want below 5. and so does @mlennyma. Above @VVS has a target of 36 for equity. @sparkly 35-30 for equity in kengen thread. And mine for equity was 33, but now at below 37.00 after Q1 results. Very interesting @Aguy, Consider this: -Rwanda land. Reminds me of Diniz, Merali -G. Kichennin, Executive Director; I. Kichennin, Executive Director -Chair, we will expand to other sectors -CEO, we will only grow the manufacturing and trading business where we operate. -Ksh. 10,128,628.00 CASH is heldup in Imperial Bank (is that all?) -And by the way, who are the auditors? Please elaborate. Is there a merali relation or affiliation here. I need to know this @Aguy, this is the same old story we discussed where the company bought land in Kigali for RwF 65,000,000.00 only to sell it to Bangera the CEO at a huge discount just before listing at RwF 40,000,000.00! And not on CASH basis, but payable in installments over 36 months!!! Bangera, Faida, Imperial, PKF and Mauritius in one sentence Wasn't this explained as a sale and lease back? Very common in a lot of pre-IPO restructuring decisions. But anyways, what do I know? You guys seem to have more authority on this particular transaction
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Lisa_Girl wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:kimanimsc wrote:
FTGH @ 4.80
from this low ,downwards i shall take small bites of flame tree Me too. Below 5 im a buyer. I wanted below 6. but due to the high risk profile of being a small cap im doing 5.50 to 5.00 and below. This share can quadruple someones wealth no joke. I find it interesting how the buying price targets are similar among wazuans. in my independent analysis i want below 5. and so does @mlennyma. Above @VVS has a target of 36 for equity. @sparkly 35-30 for equity in kengen thread. And mine for equity was 33, but now at below 37.00 after Q1 results. Very interesting @Aguy, Consider this: -Rwanda land. Reminds me of Diniz, Merali -G. Kichennin, Executive Director; I. Kichennin, Executive Director -Chair, we will expand to other sectors -CEO, we will only grow the manufacturing and trading business where we operate. -Ksh. 10,128,628.00 CASH is heldup in Imperial Bank (is that all?) -And by the way, who are the auditors? Please elaborate. Is there a merali relation or affiliation here. I need to know this @Aguy, this is the same old story we discussed where the company bought land in Kigali for RwF 65,000,000.00 only to sell it to Bangera the CEO at a huge discount just before listing at RwF 40,000,000.00! And not on CASH basis, but payable in installments over 36 months!!! Bangera, Faida, Imperial, PKF and Mauritius in one sentence Wasn't this explained as a sale and lease back?Hahaha, Buy at market and sell at a loss? What is conflict of interest? Google sale and lease back of Uchumi Aga Khan walk branch Very common in a lot of pre-IPO restructuring decisions. But anyways, what do I know? You guys seem to have more authority on this particular transaction Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Most sale/leaseback structured deals favour the deal makers especially in Kenya!!! We have seen and learnt from the past .......... experience is the best teacher!!!!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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Pesa Nane wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I need to read up again on the RWF 65mn to 40mn matter. If true then it's a black mark against the CEO.I support manufacturing in Kenya but it is a tough business when GoK doesn't support manufacturers with the implementation of policies. As @PesaNane pointed out, trading was far more profitable. Look at today's BD article: http://www.businessdaily...-/146qg7gz/-/index.html
Tanks: FTGH is a regional player and that helps mitigate bad years in a single country. That said, there's a lot of competition. Making tanks isn't rocket science. Low(er) oil prices = low(er) prices of raw materials & transport which is a plus. FMCG: Volumes. Can FTG push volumes and build a brand? Low margin items with many competitors. One misstep and you are done. Beauty Products: Not a segment I have in-depth knowledge of. High margins in the mid-high segment. Brand building isn't cheap but key. Lots of competition. The PER (based on 2015 EPS) looks attractive. The acquisitions in 2016 will deplete the cash, interest costs will rise and operational costs will increase. I am in FTG and picking up more. The tipping point is the CEO still has 80% of the shares. He is quite young (40s) so is likely open to change and technology. All the above said, if he turns out to be a Matu... From the listing statement"The property is yet to be valued"     Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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@PesaNane RW property - Was the 65 to 40 done BEFORE the Private Placement? If it was done when he owned 100% of the firm, then it doesn't affect the 'new' shareholders except for the 3 years he has to pay back the money. Nevertheless, why was it done is something one should query. Only 12 months left before HB has to make the payments. BTW, in the grand scheme the amount isn't huge and amounts to $100,000 using RWF 650/$. Sale-Leaseback ---> That is not a Sale-Leaseback. In a SL, the 'buyer' pays cash to the seller then gets lease payments. In this case the Buyer (HB) is paying the Seller (FTG) on a monthly basis. This was a sale by FTG to HB at a loss. Manufacturing - FY15 showed a profit. I expect a tough 2016-17 thanks to election season and high interest rates which dampen both construction and demand. FMCG Acquisitions - True, sales being built up through acquisitions not organic growth. Some brands will have to be killed off. The 'advantage' is that they can have 2-3 brands in a category serving different niches but there's a cost to multiple brands. I believe MARKETING is going to be key. Look at Krackles with their 'DC' characters. Beauty Products - This is the segment where they can do very well if they hit their stride and offer the right products at the right price. As a member of Team Mafisi, I know how good make-up, low lighting and alcohol has conned me many a time. @pesanane - So far, I trust HB more than I do MM, NM or HD but thank you for the insights. I will keep my eyes and ears open. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@ pesanane. thanks for making me aware of these things. I do not like the constant acquisitions reminds me of centum. at least they do not keep selling yet. mauritius, mauritius. That always raises an eyebrow. There might be no problem, but its good to know the animal you're trying to hunt The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Consider this: -Rwanda land. Reminds me of Diniz, Merali - G. Kichennin, Executive Director; I. Kichennin, Executive Director any link with merali or just similarity in the transctions The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/7/2014 Posts: 155
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Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:kimanimsc wrote:
FTGH @ 4.80
from this low ,downwards i shall take small bites of flame tree Me too. Below 5 im a buyer. I wanted below 6. but due to the high risk profile of being a small cap im doing 5.50 to 5.00 and below. This share can quadruple someones wealth no joke. I find it interesting how the buying price targets are similar among wazuans. in my independent analysis i want below 5. and so does @mlennyma. Above @VVS has a target of 36 for equity. @sparkly 35-30 for equity in kengen thread. And mine for equity was 33, but now at below 37.00 after Q1 results. Very interesting @Aguy, Consider this: -Rwanda land. Reminds me of Diniz, Merali -G. Kichennin, Executive Director; I. Kichennin, Executive Director -Chair, we will expand to other sectors -CEO, we will only grow the manufacturing and trading business where we operate. -Ksh. 10,128,628.00 CASH is heldup in Imperial Bank (is that all?) -And by the way, who are the auditors? Please elaborate. Is there a merali relation or affiliation here. I need to know this @Aguy, this is the same old story we discussed where the company bought land in Kigali for RwF 65,000,000.00 only to sell it to Bangera the CEO at a huge discount just before listing at RwF 40,000,000.00! And not on CASH basis, but payable in installments over 36 months!!! Bangera, Faida, Imperial, PKF and Mauritius in one sentence mind boggling.Thankyou.we sure learn every day
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Aguytrying wrote:Consider this:
-Rwanda land. Reminds me of Diniz, Merali
-G. Kichennin, Executive Director; I. Kichennin, Executive Director
any link with merali or just similarity in the transctions Referring to asset stripping akin to Express Kenya Airport HQ and Sameer Business Park Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,057 Location: Nairobi
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@Aguy - No merali connection as far as I know. Mauritius is used as the HQ for many firms that do business in Africa thanks to their Double Taxation Agreements, English Law and easy-to-do-business environment. I think the Kichennins are what are known as 'resident' directors of the "parent" hq'd in Mauritius but HB calls the shots. The info @PesaNane has provided has given me pause. I will look into the firm's financials further. I have to admit, I like Centum's performance under Mworia and if HB can deliver even 50% of what Mworia has done... Caution: Manufacturing is not an easy path to take in Kenya. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Hello Joined: 10/16/2015 Posts: 5 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:@PesaNane RW property - Was the 65 to 40 done BEFORE the Private Placement? If it was done when he owned 100% of the firm, then it doesn't affect the 'new' shareholders except for the 3 years he has to pay back the money. Nevertheless, why was it done is something one should query. Only 12 months left before HB has to make the payments. BTW, in the grand scheme the amount isn't huge and amounts to $100,000 using RWF 650/$. Sale-Leaseback ---> That is not a Sale-Leaseback. In a SL, the 'buyer' pays cash to the seller then gets lease payments. In this case the Buyer (HB) is paying the Seller (FTG) on a monthly basis. This was a sale by FTG to HB at a loss. Ooh... got it! good stuff...Manufacturing - FY15 showed a profit. I expect a tough 2016-17 thanks to election season and high interest rates which dampen both construction and demand. FMCG Acquisitions - True, sales being built up through acquisitions not organic growth. Some brands will have to be killed off. The 'advantage' is that they can have 2-3 brands in a category serving different niches but there's a cost to multiple brands. I believe MARKETING is going to be key. Look at Krackles with their 'DC' characters. Beauty Products - This is the segment where they can do very well if they hit their stride and offer the right products at the right price. As a member of Team Mafisi, I know how good make-up, low lighting and alcohol has conned me many a time. @pesanane - So far, I trust HB more than I do MM, NM or HD but thank you for the insights. I will keep my eyes and ears open.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - No merali connection as far as I know.
Mauritius is used as the HQ for many firms that do business in Africa thanks to their Double Taxation Agreements, English Law and easy-to-do-business environment. I think the Kichennins are what are known as 'resident' directors of the "parent" hq'd in Mauritius but HB calls the shots.
The info @PesaNane has provided has given me pause. I will look into the firm's financials further. I have to admit, I like Centum's performance under Mworia and if HB can deliver even 50% of what Mworia has done...
Caution: Manufacturing is not an easy path to take in Kenya. Yeah its good to keep one eye open, ill also look further and give more time to understand this company The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - No merali connection as far as I know.
Mauritius is used as the HQ for many firms that do business in Africa thanks to their Double Taxation Agreements, English Law and easy-to-do-business environment. I think the Kichennins are what are known as 'resident' directors of the "parent" hq'd in Mauritius but HB calls the shots.
The info @PesaNane has provided has given me pause. I will look into the firm's financials further. I have to admit, I like Centum's performance under Mworia and if HB can deliver even 50% of what Mworia has done...
Caution: Manufacturing is not an easy path to take in Kenya. Yeah its good to keep one eye open, ill also look further and give more time to understand this company admittedly, the chance of insane returns does exist (at the correct price) but the quality for a portfolio mainstay is another monster altogether (hence, hand at the eject button) Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,996 Location: Kitale
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Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - No merali connection as far as I know.
Mauritius is used as the HQ for many firms that do business in Africa thanks to their Double Taxation Agreements, English Law and easy-to-do-business environment. I think the Kichennins are what are known as 'resident' directors of the "parent" hq'd in Mauritius but HB calls the shots.
The info @PesaNane has provided has given me pause. I will look into the firm's financials further. I have to admit, I like Centum's performance under Mworia and if HB can deliver even 50% of what Mworia has done...
Caution: Manufacturing is not an easy path to take in Kenya. Yeah its good to keep one eye open, ill also look further and give more time to understand this company admittedly, the chance of insane returns does exist (at the correct price) but the quality for a portfolio mainstay is another monster altogether (hence, hand at the eject button) Whats their current dividend yield? dividend per share? eps? PE? I read somewhere that this company their main business ni kuuza pilipili,is that so? Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Ebenyo wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - No merali connection as far as I know.
Mauritius is used as the HQ for many firms that do business in Africa thanks to their Double Taxation Agreements, English Law and easy-to-do-business environment. I think the Kichennins are what are known as 'resident' directors of the "parent" hq'd in Mauritius but HB calls the shots.
The info @PesaNane has provided has given me pause. I will look into the firm's financials further. I have to admit, I like Centum's performance under Mworia and if HB can deliver even 50% of what Mworia has done...
Caution: Manufacturing is not an easy path to take in Kenya. Yeah its good to keep one eye open, ill also look further and give more time to understand this company admittedly, the chance of insane returns does exist (at the correct price) but the quality for a portfolio mainstay is another monster altogether (hence, hand at the eject button) Whats their current dividend yield? dividend per share? eps? PE? I read somewhere that this company their main business ni kuuza pilipili,is that so? Ebenyo you're a comedian. Go to their website and download annual report, all the info is there. Go to rich.co.ke for a summary also The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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