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Bear 2015 Wish List
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@Afroblk. You may want to push your exit date forward by 2 yrs and reduce your exit price target on centum, arm, hfck The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Afroblk wrote:sparkly wrote:moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood. Me thinks so too. We need at least 3 years before the current market mood returns. I finally managed to complete my buys for the year, now waiting for harvesting time! Good luck amigos!  Now as then, I think your newly acquired portfolio is going to get decimated. Notice the -% change in prices since the first time you posted your target entry prices. If you can take a hit/shaving-high risk appetite-of about 50%, then by all means carry on. However, if you are easily frazzled by losses reconsider...the next one year might be very nasty. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:sparkly wrote:moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood. Me thinks so too. We need at least 3 years before the current market mood returns. I finally managed to complete my buys for the year, now waiting for harvesting time! Good luck amigos! Now as then, I think your newly acquired portfolio is going to get decimated. Notice the -% change in prices since the first time you posted your target entry prices. If you can take a hit/shaving-high risk appetite-of about 50%, then by all means carry on. However, if you are easily frazzled by losses reconsider...the next one year might be very nasty. A very aggressive portfolio IMO esp with shares that do not pay a dividend. Positive gains in Centum, HF, KK might be weighed down by ARM, KQ, Longhorn resulting in a Zero-sum gain. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/24/2014 Posts: 159 Location: Nairobi
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Afroblk wrote:sparkly wrote:moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood. Me thinks so too. We need at least 3 years before the current market mood returns. I finally managed to complete my buys for the year, now waiting for harvesting time! Good luck amigos! Following for HFCK, Britam & Longhorn Money comes and goes. When you have it enjoy it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor  "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by Got the data from the Reuters FT website. Correct me if this is not the case. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by Got the data from the Reuters FT website. Correct me if this is not the case. At 40.00 which they are both currently trading. equity dividend yeild- (1.80 sh) 4.5% KCB dividend yeild- (2.00 sh) 5.0% The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by Got the data from the Reuters FT website. Correct me if this is not the case. At 40.00 which they are both currently trading. equity dividend yeild- (1.80 sh) 4.5% KCB dividend yeild- (2.00 sh) 5.0% Thanks. Both are good investments, though Equity is more efficient in using its assets and capital. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 955 Location: Kenya
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by Got the data from the Reuters FT website. Correct me if this is not the case. At 40.00 which they are both currently trading. equity dividend yeild- (1.80 sh) 4.5% KCB dividend yeild- (2.00 sh) 5.0% Thanks. Both are good investments, though Equity is more efficient in using its assets and capital. KCB dominates Kenya and SS in terms of profits..Member outgrows KCB in Ug, Tz and Rwanda plus it has Procredit in its account and from what i have researched its expanding so far averaging a new branch per month together with agencies. Another advantage Member has is high volume of pple who together increase transactional income from so many transactions. Non interest income is more stable than interest income tht CBK really wants to trim.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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watesh wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by Got the data from the Reuters FT website. Correct me if this is not the case. At 40.00 which they are both currently trading. equity dividend yeild- (1.80 sh) 4.5% KCB dividend yeild- (2.00 sh) 5.0% Thanks. Both are good investments, though Equity is more efficient in using its assets and capital. KCB dominates Kenya and SS in terms of profits..Member outgrows KCB in Ug, Tz and Rwanda plus it has Procredit in its account and from what i have researched its expanding so far averaging a new branch per month together with agencies. Another advantage Member has is high volume of pple who together increase transactional income from so many transactions. Non interest income is more stable than interest income tht CBK really wants to trim. I would like to look at Uganda numbers for member. Most of my friends in Ug are for Simba. Member has been generally quiet in the Uganda market. During my two year stay in Ug, hardly anyone mentions member.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00. It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20 may be its also saying you are not the only investor He he. We're both playing hard ball There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba. yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever. Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%). Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%) You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by Got the data from the Reuters FT website. Correct me if this is not the case. At 40.00 which they are both currently trading. equity dividend yeild- (1.80 sh) 4.5% PE 8.6 P/B ??KCB dividend yeild- (2.00 sh) 5.0% PE 7.0 P/B ?? Thanks. Both are good investments, though Equity is more efficient in using its assets and capital. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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