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Bear 2015 Wish List
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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What are you buying and at what Price? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2010 Posts: 391 Location: nairobie
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Aguytrying wrote:What are you buying and at what Price? wishful thinking please remove jubilee eabl bat equity from your list
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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subaru wrote:Aguytrying wrote:What are you buying and at what Price? wishful thinking please remove jubilee eabl bat equity from your list In a REAL bear anything is possible. in 2011 for eg. JUBILEE 150. EQUITY 16.00. EABL 150. BAT 230-270 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 303
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Aguytrying wrote:What are you buying and at what Price? Equity bank at between 30-33 will be a gem.My memories are taken back to 2011 when I loaded up on this stock at 16 and eventually made a kill. Surprising thing is that we are having the same scenario ie high interest rates and depreciating currency.Indeed history repeats itself..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:What are you buying and at what Price? Equity bank at between 30-33 will be a gem.My memories are taken back to 2011 when I loaded up on this stock at 16 and eventually made a kill. Surprising thing is that we are having the same scenario ie high interest rates and depreciating currency.Indeed history repeats itself.. Interbank @ 20.4%,a possible 50 bps rate hike today,yesterday alone 900m of bond sell/buy back transactions took place...2011 yet again I believe prices will go lower,everyone is in panic mode...btw whats the highest interbank rate we have ever experienced? possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:What are you buying and at what Price? Equity bank at between 30-33 will be a gem.My memories are taken back to 2011 when I loaded up on this stock at 16 and eventually made a kill. Surprising thing is that we are having the same scenario ie high interest rates and depreciating currency.Indeed history repeats itself.. Bluechips are money makers in a real bear. EQTY, KCB, SAF, EABL should be acquired at those low prices at all costs! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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Many times we are getting right what to buy,our biggest failure is guessing when to sell.with all the previous market gains many will be left bare handed. the Bird was at our hands but now many find themselves holding only the feathers "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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I still don't understand why KK is currently trading below 2011 levels. Were PUMA takeover rumours at play then? Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/31/2008 Posts: 1,076
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Aguytrying wrote:moneydust wrote:Aguytrying wrote:What are you buying and at what Price? Equity bank at between 30-33 will be a gem.My memories are taken back to 2011 when I loaded up on this stock at 16 and eventually made a kill. Surprising thing is that we are having the same scenario ie high interest rates and depreciating currency.Indeed history repeats itself.. Bluechips are money makers in a real bear. EQTY, KCB, SAF, EABL should be acquired at those low prices at all costs! I am inclined to agree. Co-op shouldnt be a bad pick either. Dunia ni msongamano..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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dunkang wrote:I still don't understand why KK is currently trading below 2011 levels. Were PUMA takeover rumours at play then? KK actually rallied in 2011 because of PUMA takeover rumours. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:Many times we are getting right what to buy,our biggest failure is guessing when to sell.with all the previous market gains many will be left bare handed. the Bird was at our hands but now many find themselves holding only the feathers This is the saddest thing. I have a solution. As the share rises say 100% profit, sell 25-50% of you holding. you will have immediatley removed your seed capital. So that in case the share comes back to your original price, what it will be worth at that time is all your profit (if you sold 50%). The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/16/2012 Posts: 660
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Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50
JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00 Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@Museveni. Thanks for that additional column. I had tried to create a proper table but was defeated, so i colour coded. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/16/2012 Posts: 660
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Aguytrying wrote:@Museveni. Thanks for that additional column. I had tried to create a proper table but was defeated, so i colour coded. Excellent choice The only other option would have been posting as a pic. Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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hisah wrote:It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing. CBR rate was maintained, good time for preliminary listAguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Many times we are getting right what to buy,our biggest failure is guessing when to sell.with all the previous market gains many will be left bare handed. the Bird was at our hands but now many find themselves holding only the feathers This is the saddest thing. I have a solution. As the share rises say 100% profit, sell 25-50% of you holding. you will have immediatley removed your seed capital. So that in case the share comes back to your original price, what it will be worth at that time is all your profit (if you sold 50%). Book gains to make them real so good advice. Have targets. If target is 50% then sell 66% to recoup initial investment (if 25% then sell 80% etc)Museveni wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50
JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00 As is typical, we are spoiled for choice! Many good choices but I can't spread my limited money across all these. My picks are: Safaricom, KCB (or Equity) and Jubilee (or Pan Africa since Jubilee target price may not be reached).
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing. I know it's early, trust me I'm not even close to buying. As a fundie the price points are my triggers. From the looks of things I'll revise many downwards. It helps me think and internalise them. When time to pull the trigger comes I can be more clinical The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Many times we are getting right what to buy,our biggest failure is guessing when to sell.with all the previous market gains many will be left bare handed. the Bird was at our hands but now many find themselves holding only the feathers This is the saddest thing. I have a solution. As the share rises say 100% profit, sell 25-50% of you holding. you will have immediatley removed your seed capital. So that in case the share comes back to your original price, what it will be worth at that time is all your profit (if you sold 50%). Good strategy. If anyone from here is holding feathers, its because they are either value investors or chose to ignore the signs and calls.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:It's still too early to come up with a buy list! Don't fight the CB. Wait for the CB to calm down and give the green signal otherwise starving in the liquidity drought desert won't be a pleasant thing. I know it's early, trust me I'm not even close to buying. As a fundie the price points are my triggers. From the looks of things I'll revise many downwards. It helps me think and internalise them. When time to pull the trigger comes I can be more clinical @Aguy, what @Hisah is saying is you watch the CBK moves, not the prices.As long as CBK shorts the market, stay away, when they get bullish(lower cbr), pull the trigger. @SufficientlyP
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