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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
mlennyma
#881 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2016 8:09:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
Kausha wrote:
@vvs been in the wilderness didn't know EPS 2/= is on the cards?

too abitious meaning kitu 3billion profit
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#882 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2016 9:20:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
@vvs been in the wilderness didn't know EPS 2/= is on the cards?

too abitious meaning kitu 3billion profit


@Kausha - There's the AGM and then there's the 'after-AGM' discussion. The serious folks remain behind after the rest run to grab lunch packs. There was a free-flow of questions.

At the 'After-AGM' Ohana said KK had a spectacular 1Q. Plus the debt, not eliminated, was reduced to 3.5bn-ish despite higher oil prices. I think KK has backed off the 'zero-debt by June 2016' claim made when oil was at $29. It's $50 now.

KK sold off TZ and used to cash to pay down debt. DO said KK was losing at least $2m/year in TZ so that will be added back to PBT.

All countries are profitable, after selling off TZ. Debt reduced across the board. Burundi & Rwanda (35% market share in each) are doing very well.

Kenya -DO emphasized KK will only engage in profitable businesses. Jet-A1 sales coming back. KK doesn't sell to KQ unless it is in cash.

So where does the 2/- come from? I took the 2015 EPS adjusted for gains from the TZ sale.
1) Savings from TZ of 200mn+ per year.
2) Savings from lower borrowings.
3) Increased sales/volumes = lower fixed cost/liter. DO said volumes, in 1Q, were up across all categories. The 'natural' growth in volumes is 4% pa.
4) Huge push for (profitable) LPG. 200,000 LPG tanks were at the port in April awaiting clearance.
5) An above-average 1Q.
6) Lease, not build, strategy for new stations. He said many former independents are leasing stations to KK since financing inventory is not easy for everyone.
7) New products especially Castrol oils will be blended locally. I think there has been a delay though.
8) OTS participation. DO described it as low-margin but low-risk. Financing isn't a problem with banks looking to lend to KK now that it's much healthier.
9) CAPEX allocated for refurbishing old stations. The 1.5bn HQ proposal has been ditched.

@Miennyma - No problem. That's was my estimate as of (post-AGM) April. The 1H results should be out by end of August if history is a guide. I may change my tune after 1H results are out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#883 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2016 9:46:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
@vvs been in the wilderness didn't know EPS 2/= is on the cards?

too abitious meaning kitu 3billion profit


@Kausha - There's the AGM and then there's the 'after-AGM' discussion. The serious folks remain behind after the rest run to grab lunch packs. There was a free-flow of questions.

At the 'After-AGM' Ohana said KK had a spectacular 1Q. Plus the debt, not eliminated, was reduced to 3.5bn-ish despite higher oil prices. I think KK has backed off the 'zero-debt by June 2016' claim made when oil was at $29. It's $50 now.

KK sold off TZ and used to cash to pay down debt. DO said KK was losing at least $2m/year in TZ so that will be added back to PBT.

All countries are profitable, after selling off TZ. Debt reduced across the board. Burundi & Rwanda (35% market share in each) are doing very well.

Kenya -DO emphasized KK will only engage in profitable businesses. Jet-A1 sales coming back. KK doesn't sell to KQ unless it is in cash.

So where does the 2/- come from? I took the 2015 EPS adjusted for gains from the TZ sale.
1) Savings from TZ of 200mn+ per year.
2) Savings from lower borrowings.
3) Increased sales/volumes = lower fixed cost/liter. DO said volumes, in 1Q, were up across all categories. The 'natural' growth in volumes is 4% pa.
4) Huge push for (profitable) LPG. 200,000 LPG tanks were at the port in April awaiting clearance.
5) An above-average 1Q.
6) Lease, not build, strategy for new stations. He said many former independents are leasing stations to KK since financing inventory is not easy for everyone.
7) New products especially Castrol oils will be blended locally. I think there has been a delay though.
8) OTS participation. DO described it as low-margin but low-risk. Financing isn't a problem with banks looking to lend to KK now that it's much healthier.
9) CAPEX allocated for refurbishing old stations. The 1.5bn HQ proposal has been ditched.

@Miennyma - No problem. That's was my estimate as of (post-AGM) April. The 1H results should be out by end of August if history is a guide. I may change my tune after 1H results are out.

good.rental income is also boosting at south B mater petrol station they are almost completing a decent 1 floor rental facility
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
karasinga
#884 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 8:47:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
The most recently confirmed down trendline for kenokobil has an ending point currently at 10.52. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this trendline. A break above this trendline (particularly on heavy volume) would be a bullish sign
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
mlennyma
#885 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2016 9:21:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
karasinga wrote:
The most recently confirmed down trendline for kenokobil has an ending point currently at 10.52. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this trendline. A break above this trendline (particularly on heavy volume) would be a bullish sign

The latest nse happenings is shaking my optimism on all stocks day by day,
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#886 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 12:27:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Realtreaty
#887 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2016 7:50:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,260
mlennyma wrote:
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids

Laughing out loudly Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.
muandiwambeu
#888 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 6:07:02 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Realtreaty wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids

Laughing out loudly Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.

total will keep kk upward thrust capped for now. substitute good made more affordable. smile
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
Aguytrying
#889 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 8:44:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Where are the pendulum swingers. I said it's near impossible to make money by predicting stocks. This one refused to follow the old 8.00 to 10.00 trend during this year. I see scope of sub 10 maybe even sub 9. Not because of bad performance but the bear raging in the NSE
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#890 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 9:03:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Where are the pendulum swingers. I said it's near impossible to make money by predicting stocks. This one refused to follow the old 8.00 to 10.00 trend during this year. I see scope of sub 10 maybe even sub 9. Not because of bad performance but the bear raging in the NSE

Sigh, lack of cash not will is my enemy!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#891 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 9:17:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
muandiwambeu wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids

Laughing out loudly Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.

total will keep kk upward thrust capped for now. substitute good made more affordable. smile

A lemon can never substitute an orange
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#892 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 9:24:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
Realtreaty wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids

Laughing out loudly Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.

yes 20cts it will be plus 30cts final,iam looking at their gas cylinders all over once you return an old one its never getting out old but newly painted and well maintained meaning pesa iko
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Speculz
#893 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 9:26:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2011
Posts: 391
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids

Laughing out loudly Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.

yes 20cts it will be plus 30cts final,iam looking at their gas cylinders all over once you return an old one its never getting out old but newly painted and well maintained meaning pesa iko


Dear Sir/Madam

This warrant is for the interim dividend on ordinary shares of KES 0.25 each .....
"You can't have everything. Where would you put it?" - Stephen Wright
mlennyma
#894 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 9:31:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
Speculz wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids

Laughing out loudly Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.

yes 20cts it will be plus 30cts final,iam looking at their gas cylinders all over once you return an old one its never getting out old but newly painted and well maintained meaning pesa iko


Dear Sir/Madam

This warrant is for the interim dividend on ordinary shares of KES 0.25 each .....

Yes,this email is already in my inbox but why are they calling it interim and it was final?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
muandiwambeu
#895 Posted : Wednesday, July 20, 2016 9:48:39 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
mlennyma wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids

Laughing out loudly Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.

total will keep kk upward thrust capped for now. substitute good made more affordable. smile

A lemon can never substitute an orange

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Drool
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
VituVingiSana
#896 Posted : Friday, July 22, 2016 8:17:15 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,057
Location: Nairobi
Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#897 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 6:04:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders.

:) :)

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
enyands
#898 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 7:46:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders.

:) :)



Obiero brother just Suck it up ..I think the more you pick fights on defense of kq the more you are made fun of.if I'm you I'll do it differently . I'll go under ,change my name to the ones you used to use before and come back .a user name like winder sounds ok though only vvs and me know that is you .
If you continue fighting then you are exposing the fissure in your hidden wound
obiero
#899 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 7:56:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
enyands wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders.

:) :)



Obiero brother just Suck it up ..I think the more you pick fights on defense of kq the more you are made fun of.if I'm you I'll do it differently . I'll go under ,change my name to the ones you used to use before and come back .a user name like winder sounds ok though only vvs and me know that is you .
If you continue fighting then you are exposing the fissure in your hidden wound

I got tough skin @enyands.. No wounds here. Plus I love the thrills of social media

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Ebenyo
#900 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2016 8:29:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
enyands wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders.

:) :)



Obiero brother just Suck it up ..I think the more you pick fights on defense of kq the more you are made fun of.if I'm you I'll do it differently . I'll go under ,change my name to the ones you used to use before and come back .a user name like winder sounds ok though only vvs and me know that is you .
If you continue fighting then you are exposing the fissure in your hidden wound


i agree with u enyands.Hii mchezo ya KQ na watu wake wapotelee mbali kabisa.some of us here we have little children to plan for their future.We dont have time to waste on cat and mouse games.Like for example myself,Im planning to achieve two things in NSE: 1.To pay for my daughter school fees 2.To buy two acres of land.
Im here to learn from like minded people who have goals to achieve in life.I will now try to avoid jokers,pretenders and players.Shetani ashindwe!
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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