wazua Tue, May 21, 2024
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

11 Pages«<56789>»
KenolKobil FY14 PAT up 95%
murchr
#121 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 5:34:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
We might see 8.xy print soon. That is the problem of boarding the same bus with a multitude of Wanjiku...

I love Wanjiku! She sells shares to me when Wazuans will not.

@murchr - Don't let Wanjiku worry you. She cannot sell for ever. she will eventually run out of shares. These shares will end up with long termers! The best you can do is to buy from her while she still has something to sell!!!


As long as the price remains "cheap" she shall be boarding and alighting at every stop. Anyway, its my time to eat. May the price even fall further tomorrow.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Aguytrying
#122 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 5:35:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
MaichBlack
#123 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 5:43:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
murchr wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
We might see 8.xy print soon. That is the problem of boarding the same bus with a multitude of Wanjiku...

I love Wanjiku! She sells shares to me when Wazuans will not.

@murchr - Don't let Wanjiku worry you. She cannot sell for ever. she will eventually run out of shares. These shares will end up with long termers! The best you can do is to buy from her while she still has something to sell!!!


As long as the price remains "cheap" she shall be boarding and alighting at every stop. Anyway, its my time to eat. May the price even fall further tomorrow.

At one point most of the shares will be held by the @murchr, @vvs and @maichblacks of this world who will not be in a hurry to sell and certainly not at the prices she is used to!! The price will automatically move to where it is supposed to be. Laws of supply and demand!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Aguytrying
#124 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 10:05:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
We might see 8.xy print soon. That is the problem of boarding the same bus with a multitude of Wanjiku...

I love Wanjiku! She sells shares to me when Wazuans will not.

@murchr - Don't let Wanjiku worry you. She cannot sell for ever. she will eventually run out of shares. These shares will end up with long termers! The best you can do is to buy from her while she still has something to sell!!!


As long as the price remains "cheap" she shall be boarding and alighting at every stop. Anyway, its my time to eat. May the price even fall further tomorrow.

At one point most of the shares will be held by the @murchr, @vvs and @maichblacks of this world who will not be in a hurry to sell and certainly not at the prices she is used to!! The price will automatically move to where it is supposed to be. Laws of supply and demand!


True. Only thing this time that it is one of the top shareholders selling. explains the never ending demand
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#125 Posted : Friday, April 03, 2015 12:25:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
Warren Buffett says & @vvs listens to him. Or am I just justifying my decision?

1) Would I buy the WHOLE company i.e all 1.5bn shares at 9/-? YES [if I had the cash]
2) Would I hold this company 'forever' [until I get cashed out by a very attractive offer]? YES
3) Do I trust the Board and Management? YES [so far]
4) Can KK run without requiring cash input to maintain current profits? YES [to the best of my knowledge]
(In other words, is KK cash-flowing. As long as it doesn't need additional cash e.g. loans, Rights, Equity to replace assets and maintain the current profitability)
5) Does KK have a moat? YES/NO. They have great locations, storage tanks, brand, contracts, contacts, etc BUT these can be chipped away as well by the players since they sell a COMMODITY not a unique item. Petrol from KK looks not different from Shell or Hashi.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
derick
#126 Posted : Friday, April 03, 2015 11:35:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 411
5.5 m shares traded yesterday 2nd of April, iam more convinced that this are not Wanjiku's buying and selling. This are big timers.
Your income is directly related to your philosophy, Not the economy.-Jim Rohn
Cde Monomotapa
#127 Posted : Saturday, April 04, 2015 1:12:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,


Fat fingered back into KK. I concur the increased volumes compared to average volumes (myStocks) indicate big player action in the counter.

The 'derisking' play is good. An internal process. Cash flow...

ION, wonder how long my handle will be current. Another buyout offer in ZW, Afsun. Successful buyout and off goes the flagship Crowne Plaza, Monomotapa. smile

NB: Afsun hasn't been a very profitable company, recently underwent derisking too - BS restructuring. Stock you could get at 0.8-0.9USc. An offer of 3USc and amen... The strength in this company is its dominance in the market and the IHG brands.
sparkly
#128 Posted : Monday, April 06, 2015 7:48:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Given the nature of KK business (low margin commodity business), the company's conservative valuation is as good the earnings and dividends achieved. Applying a PE of 10 (on 0.74 EPS) and a DY of 3.5% (on 0.20 DPS) gives a valuation of 7.4 and 5.7 respectively.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#129 Posted : Monday, April 06, 2015 8:16:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,060
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Given the nature of KK business (low margin commodity business), the company's conservative valuation is as good the earnings and dividends achieved. Applying a PE of 10 (on 0.74 EPS) and a DY of 3.5% (on 0.20 DPS) gives a valuation of 7.4 and 5.7 respectively.

Based on the historical earnings but not on future earnings.
Is 0.74 normalized earnings for KK?

I do not think so. I think it will rise to at least 1/- in 2015. Why?
1) Lower (current) oil prices [translate to lower fuel prices] give KK better margins both at wholesale and pump/retail.
2) Lower debt levels = lower interest costs [per Ohana's statement]
3) Lower interest rate = lower interest costs [per Ohana's statement]
4) More stations [after dumping certain low margin businesses], more cars, lower fuel prices = more volume [& competition]
5) A stronger balance sheet allows KK to get back into the trading/OTC business. Low margin, low risk, high volumes.
6) I expect KK to get out of certain [low volumes for KK] markets like Zambia & Tanzania where it hasn't built up bulk. Keep UG, RW, BU & ET.

At 1/- 'normalized' earnings then 10x PER = 10/- so not that great a buy at 9/-. I am banking on improvements in operations over the next 2 years within EAC.

And a sale of the firm.

Or I am going to be spectacularly wrong.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kausha
#130 Posted : Monday, April 06, 2015 10:06:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
I believe you are are horribly wrong on KK. No way valuation of KK is below 15bob. Even on break up value basis KK's property is worth upwards of USD 500m.

The steady evolution of KK's gross margin over the past two years and the substantial operating leverage created by the cost compression and debt repayments should result in Ksh 6.5 Billion EBITDA in 2015. Knock off Ksh 1B Depreciation and another conservative Ksh 1B financing cost and you end up with PBT of 4.5B.

I am still waiting on a Tax Guru to enlighten us why KK did not paid Ksh 495m tax when they have a massive Kshs 2.2 Billion Deferred tax asset.

Should KK make this Ksh 4.5Billion profit certainly the deferred tax asset should offset any tax payables. Even at worst case assuming 30% taxation KK should end up with about 3B profit which is Ksh 2+ EPS. This is my personal forecast.
heri
#131 Posted : Tuesday, April 07, 2015 7:01:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
what is the status of the that case between KK and Kennay Oil refinery. Anyone with updates?
Mucene
#132 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2015 10:17:39 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/4/2012
Posts: 155
Location: Kenya
Kausha wrote:
I believe you are are horribly wrong on KK. No way valuation of KK is below 15bob. Even on break up value basis KK's property is worth upwards of USD 500m.

The steady evolution of KK's gross margin over the past two years and the substantial operating leverage created by the cost compression and debt repayments should result in Ksh 6.5 Billion EBITDA in 2015. Knock off Ksh 1B Depreciation and another conservative Ksh 1B financing cost and you end up with PBT of 4.5B.

I am still waiting on a Tax Guru to enlighten us why KK did not paid Ksh 429m tax when they have a massive Kshs 2.2 Billion Deferred tax asset.

Should KK make this Ksh 4.5Billion profit certainly the deferred tax asset should offset any tax payables. Even at worst case assuming 30% taxation KK should end up with about 3B profit which is Ksh 2+ EPS. This is my personal forecast.


The deferred tax asset arises mainly from unused tax losses that KK made in the past and can only be used to offset tax in the particular line of business that gave rise to the asset. The current tax has to be deducted from the income despite the fact that it may not be pad as it is offset but the asset.
Out of the 429m, 10 m is the current income tax while the rest relates to movement in the deferred tax asset. This could arise from the fact that KK could be having unused tax losses in some countries they are operating in and not in others.

From the report the MD says ".....Further reduction
of net borrowings of Kshs 2.4 billion during the first
quarter of 2015 should result in closing net borrowings of approximately Kshs 7 billion at the end of the first quarter 2015. Management is confident in the Group’s strength to continue significant improvement in 2015, with the first quarter already delivering strong expected results with significantly lower net borrowings".
Considering the report was released on 24th March, it means that this is something that has already occurred and so I expect a very good HY performance.
If you don't want to go to plan B have a good plan A.
Kausha
#133 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2015 6:04:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@mucene thanks a lot for the tax information. so its basically deferred tax movement implying in 2015 when they make good profits this movement should be negative sugesting no tax payable. Haya buyer be in thr know and seller be warned of what you leaving on the table.
Gatheuzi
#134 Posted : Thursday, April 09, 2015 10:36:42 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
Gatheuzi wrote:
I have been amusing myself lately by making 8.75 orders. They might just get filled.

My order at 8.45 just got filled Applause Applause
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
mlennyma
#135 Posted : Thursday, April 09, 2015 10:48:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,176
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,

however a penny less is most welcomePray
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
heri
#136 Posted : Thursday, April 09, 2015 11:03:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Kausha wrote:
I believe you are are horribly wrong on KK. No way valuation of KK is below 15bob. Even on break up value basis KK's property is worth upwards of USD 500m.

The steady evolution of KK's gross margin over the past two years and the substantial operating leverage created by the cost compression and debt repayments should result in Ksh 6.5 Billion EBITDA in 2015. Knock off Ksh 1B Depreciation and another conservative Ksh 1B financing cost and you end up with PBT of 4.5B.

I am still waiting on a Tax Guru to enlighten us why KK did not paid Ksh 495m tax when they have a massive Kshs 2.2 Billion Deferred tax asset.

Should KK make this Ksh 4.5Billion profit certainly the deferred tax asset should offset any tax payables. Even at worst case assuming 30% taxation KK should end up with about 3B profit which is Ksh 2+ EPS. This is my personal forecast.



@kausha how did you get the breakup value of USD 500M
heri
#137 Posted : Thursday, April 09, 2015 11:07:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,

however a penny less is most welcomePray


to sell at 8 bob or less means someone got in at what price?
Aguytrying
#138 Posted : Thursday, April 09, 2015 1:48:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,

however a penny less is most welcomePray


to sell at 8 bob or less means someone got in at what price?


Do not assume they are selling at a profit, maybe they just got tired of waiting
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
MaichBlack
#139 Posted : Thursday, April 09, 2015 1:51:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,451
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,

however a penny less is most welcomePray


to sell at 8 bob or less means someone got in at what price?


Do not assume they are selling at a profit, maybe they just got tired of waiting

Wanjiku is Wanjiku!!! At times she buys Safaricom at 5/=, sells it at 2.30/= and then buys it back at 16/=!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
derick
#140 Posted : Thursday, April 09, 2015 2:22:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 411
MaichBlack wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,

however a penny less is most welcomePray


to sell at 8 bob or less means someone got in at what price?


Do not assume they are selling at a profit, maybe they just got tired of waiting

Wanjiku is Wanjiku!!! At times she buys Safaricom at 5/=, sells it at 2.30/= and then buys it back at 16/=!!!

Laughing out loudly
Your income is directly related to your philosophy, Not the economy.-Jim Rohn
Users browsing this topic
Guest
11 Pages«<56789>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2024 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.