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My Picks for 2015
S.Mutaga III
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2015 5:37:32 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise.
Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion.
Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015.
KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward.
NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years.
My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015:
40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share
30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share
30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share

I will constantly update this post in case of any developments.
Happy Investing 2015.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
enyands
#2 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2015 6:52:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
S.Mutaga III wrote:
At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise.
Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion.
Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015.
KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward.
NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years.
My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015:
40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share
30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share
30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share

I will constantly update this post in case of any developments.
Happy Investing 2015.

.This is well insightful and also very helpful
I appreciate much
jawgey
#3 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2015 7:07:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 398
Location: Denmark
enyands wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise.
Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion.
Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015.
KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward.
NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years.
My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015:
40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share
30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share
30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share

I will constantly update this post in case of any developments.
Happy Investing 2015.

.This is well insightful and also very helpful
I appreciate much


Great respect to your style of investing.. all the best and keep us updated
Seeing is believing
heri
#4 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2015 7:27:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
Mutaga, what is your take on safaricom in the longterm? would love to hear your view on what would be a good entry price
mlennyma
#5 Posted : Thursday, March 19, 2015 10:16:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise.
Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion.
Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015.
KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward.
NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years.
My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015:
40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share
30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share
30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share

I will constantly update this post in case of any developments.
Happy Investing 2015.

welcome to stocks our prodigal son,what is your brother jimnah saying?is he still pessimistic??
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
S.Mutaga III
#6 Posted : Friday, March 20, 2015 12:03:18 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
heri wrote:
Mutaga, what is your take on safaricom in the longterm? would love to hear your view on what would be a good entry price

With a current forward PE of around 21, I would not touch this counter. It is grossly overvalued. A PE of 21 means that if safaricom was your personal business, it would take you 21 years to get the money you invested back. I like counters with PE's of 7 and below. I would only get into safaricom at a value of 5 or less. The maximum I would pay for a safaricom share ceteris paribus is Ksh 5. However, you may have to perish the thoughts of boarding the safaricom bus and wait for a bear market for you to get it at a fair price. I suggest you seek other counters rather than wait.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
S.Mutaga III
#7 Posted : Friday, March 20, 2015 12:10:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
mlennyma wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise.
Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion.
Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015.
KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward.
NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years.
My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015:
40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share
30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share
30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share

I will constantly update this post in case of any developments.
Happy Investing 2015.

welcome to stocks our prodigal son,what is your brother jimnah saying?is he still pessimistic??

Please note that I only invested after the Kenya Power and Unga results were out and the government guaranteed Kenya Re's business...before then, no company met my strict criteria and therefore I was ready to stay out. As for Mbaru, we are totally independent and I am not authorized to speak on his behalf.Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
littledove
#8 Posted : Friday, March 20, 2015 8:57:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
S.Mutaga III wrote:
At the beginning of the year, I was very pessimistic about investing in the stock exchange. So far, results have been trickling in thereby changing my perspective and revealing that 2015 may still have some bargains especially for the LONG TERM INVESTOR.So far, I have spotted three opportunities that will constitute my portfolio going forward in 2015. My investment horizon is long term and since my policy is not to have more than 4 stocks at a single time, I will constantly rebalance this portfolio to book gains and pursue more attractive opportunities as they arise.
Kenya Re:- Cheap valuation with P/E of 5.5 and good growth prospects. The government recently guaranteed its business for the next five years in Kenya. Counter to watch going forward.The company has been recording increases in profitability. This year’s half year results were a 4% increase from last year. The flat growth was due to a non recurring event namely the JKIA fire which cost the company half a billion in claims. FY 2012 = 1.914 Billion, FY 2013 = 2.801 Billion, HY 2014= 1.248 Billion.
Unga Group: - Cheap valuation with P/E of 6.3. Acquisition of bakeries and venture into selling cereals expected to boost revenues. Profits increased by 40% in 2014. This years half year profits increased by 70%. I expect a stellar 2015.
KPLC:- Cheap valuation with P/E of around 4.2. Profits increased by 87% in 2014. Half year profits for 2015 increased by 38%. Massive government contracts to light bypasses in the offing. I expect massive increase in revenue from this monopoly going forward.
NB: Large government shareholding in Kenya Re and Kenya Power is not proving to have any negative effects on profitability. In fact, the government is a major KPLC client and has guaranteed Kenya Re's business for the next five years.
My Portfolio composition is therefore as follows for 2015:
40% of Portfolio (Unga Group) :- Buying Price Ksh 43.25/share
30% of Portfolio (Kenya Re) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.60/share
30% of Portfolio (KPLC) :- Buying Price Ksh 18.35/share

I will constantly update this post in case of any developments.
Happy Investing 2015.

good job @S.Mutaga III, im in two of the above buses kenya re and kenya power i tried unga @ 35 when it was getting a beating unsuccessfully, i will try it again when it goes below 40
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Friday, March 20, 2015 9:13:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
At least you've avoided overvalued banks, ill give you that
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
kollabo
#10 Posted : Friday, March 20, 2015 10:21:23 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/3/2012
Posts: 1,317
Mutaga, I followed you last year and was amazed you hit your targets in July. What happened to the real estate thing you were aiming at?

Also whats your take on KQ as per the stats?
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