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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle...  Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited!  Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far!  I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs.  @murchr, I never thought this would last this long! It's almost 2 years since 26/9/2014... The overall market party mood has shuttered as the nasty hangover resets the wild party. Mr market has now overextended the lessons 
As a reminder markets always go against the crowd.
The extreme sentiments being generated by this rate cap bill, is the energy springboard needed to flip things over against the crowd... Stay focussed as the market magicians start staging a new show, whether the bill is signed or not! Who would have thought? Britam at 40 in 2014 would be trading at 12 in 2016; Equity then at 60 would be trading at 30s  exit points missed by many. The interest rate bill plus elections clouds are causing too much uncertainty even wazua is now boring. I have not seen too many land for sale posts oflate. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle... Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited! Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far! I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. @murchr, I never thought this would last this long! It's almost 2 years since 26/9/2014... The overall market party mood has shuttered as the nasty hangover resets the wild party. Mr market has now overextended the lessons
As a reminder markets always go against the crowd.
The extreme sentiments being generated by this rate cap bill, is the energy springboard needed to flip things over against the crowd... Stay focussed as the market magicians start staging a new show, whether the bill is signed or not! I remember a wazuan named mukiri. He criticised you and basically said not gonna happen. Thats when banks valuations were sky high. I agree with you, interest bill or no interest bill. Eelction year or not. the bull will just turn up. Im not waiting... The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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enyands wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle... Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited! Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far! I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. @murchr, I never thought this would last this long! It's almost 2 years since 26/9/2014... The overall market party mood has shuttered as the nasty hangover resets the wild party. Mr market has now overextended the lessons
As a reminder markets always go against the crowd.
The extreme sentiments being generated by this rate cap bill, is the energy springboard needed to flip things over against the crowd... Stay focussed as the market magicians start staging a new show, whether the bill is signed or not! Who are these market magicians you have been trumpeting about all along? @Spikes hisah is one of most respectable wazuan.we owe him respect alot. Address him with caution since he won't engage in muddling habits of fight back but will tell you the do's and donts for your success. I never heed his advise of cash is king instead I'm burning with 500k loss in bear. But I'm wiser now because of people like him As a business correspondent I am obliged to ask hard questions. I respect @hisah for his level of analysis too. You remember the lunatic theory he orchestrated some months ago when banking climate was relatively stable has come to pass amid uncertainty on interest caps. The ball is tossed to the president desk as of now. Even my KQ arch rival @obiero I respect him equally. I respect everyone in Wazua coz I am learning a lot from everybody here! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle... Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited! Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far! I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. @murchr, I never thought this would last this long! It's almost 2 years since 26/9/2014... The overall market party mood has shuttered as the nasty hangover resets the wild party. Mr market has now overextended the lessons
As a reminder markets always go against the crowd.
The extreme sentiments being generated by this rate cap bill, is the energy springboard needed to flip things over against the crowd... Stay focussed as the market magicians start staging a new show, whether the bill is signed or not! Who would have thought? Britam at 40 in 2014 would be trading at 12 in 2016; Equity then at 60 would be trading at 30s exit points missed by many. The interest rate bill plus elections clouds are causing too much uncertainty even wazua is now boring. I have not seen too many land for sale posts oflate. A reset in all of real estate, banking sector and the KE economy is afoot. The rate bill and election can only hasten or delay the process but are not game changers by themselves. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Bottom not in sight. Banks still having liquidity issues and CBK cannot touch cbr for fear of reawakening the USD bulls......remember the huge debt stockpiles in USD ..ref Eurobond, SGRs etc? Remember the ChaseBank and Imperial bank debacle which have sucked about KES150B from circulation? Remember the people in charge? Cherry picking is the name of the game. Div stocks will reign supreme  :d/ @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle... Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited! Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far! I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. @murchr, I never thought this would last this long! It's almost 2 years since 26/9/2014... The overall market party mood has shuttered as the nasty hangover resets the wild party. Mr market has now overextended the lessons
As a reminder markets always go against the crowd.
The extreme sentiments being generated by this rate cap bill, is the energy springboard needed to flip things over against the crowd... Stay focussed as the market magicians start staging a new show, whether the bill is signed or not! WORD @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle... Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited! Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far! I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. @murchr, I never thought this would last this long! It's almost 2 years since 26/9/2014... The overall market party mood has shuttered as the nasty hangover resets the wild party. Mr market has now overextended the lessons
As a reminder markets always go against the crowd.
The extreme sentiments being generated by this rate cap bill, is the energy springboard needed to flip things over against the crowd... Stay focussed as the market magicians start staging a new show, whether the bill is signed or not! I remember a wazuan named mukiri. He criticised you and basically said not gonna happen. Thats when banks valuations were sky high. I agree with you, interest bill or no interest bill. Eelction year or not. the bull will just turn up. Im not waiting...  That dude @Mukiri is MIA he must have gone to Timbuktu. Anyway, i dont think we've seen the bottom yet. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Bottom not in sight. Banks still having liquidity issues and CBK cannot touch cbr for fear of reawakening the USD bulls......remember the huge debt stockpiles in USD ..ref Eurobond, SGRs etc? Remember the ChaseBank and Imperial bank debacle which have sucked about KES150B from circulation? Remember the people in charge? Cherry picking is the name of the game. Div stocks will reign supreme :d/ Dividend yield is my new religion. Each of the few picks I am adding has a yield ranging from 3 to 7.xy percent. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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murchr wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle... Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited! Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far! I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs. @murchr, I never thought this would last this long! It's almost 2 years since 26/9/2014... The overall market party mood has shuttered as the nasty hangover resets the wild party. Mr market has now overextended the lessons
As a reminder markets always go against the crowd.
The extreme sentiments being generated by this rate cap bill, is the energy springboard needed to flip things over against the crowd... Stay focussed as the market magicians start staging a new show, whether the bill is signed or not! I remember a wazuan named mukiri. He criticised you and basically said not gonna happen. Thats when banks valuations were sky high. I agree with you, interest bill or no interest bill. Eelction year or not. the bull will just turn up. Im not waiting... That dude @Mukiri is MIA he must have gone to Timbuktu. Anyway, i dont think we've seen the bottom yet. Ha ha. Yeah he was so critical. It's like he was on a bull crusade against senior chartist The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:dunkang wrote:hisah wrote:I started the bottomed out thread on July 13, 2011 when the market was skidding with no brakes and felt endless. You are on the right track about topping out if you read the bottomed out 1st post. I have been bearish this market since Nov 2013 while the market has continued to meltup. I closely follow Mpesa bank and it has proved to be a reliable signal since its IPO debut. The likes of @mukiri has been throwing stones at me for being the party spoiler with my never appearing sizable market selloff. False prophesy etc NSE20 has the buying climax symptoms across many counters. When crappy stocks (very small caps) rally on endless price gaps on small volume, the market has run out of quality picks! @hisa, you have been singing this climax song for soooo looong, remember you sold SafCom at 5.80/-, didn't you? I dare say, lets throw away all the valuation b.s and swim with the tide!!! True but remember, the trend is your friend except at the end when it bends - Ed SeykotaAnd we could be right at the end of that trend.Yesterday's NSE close of 5406 could as well be the top. Today, we were down 29 points. The top will be confirmed by week close. Watch out for the divergence, what @Hisah calls price gaps which have to be filled. Don't write him off as yet. As i finish, most of this bull run you are seeing has been due to foreign buys. When the FED ups its cbr from 0.25 by mid June next year, the correction will be one to watch! Locally, CBK has begun the excess liquidity mop up to tame the KES pressure. Higher interest rates are on the way. A shift to fixed income will follow. #Staytuned Calling on Duncan ..................exactly 1 year 11 months ago and the market was awash with liquidity. We all know what happened to KES, and by extension, the NSE exactly an year afterwards. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Gatheuzi wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Bottom not in sight. Banks still having liquidity issues and CBK cannot touch cbr for fear of reawakening the USD bulls......remember the huge debt stockpiles in USD ..ref Eurobond, SGRs etc? Remember the ChaseBank and Imperial bank debacle which have sucked about KES150B from circulation? Remember the people in charge? Cherry picking is the name of the game. Div stocks will reign supreme :d/ Dividend yield is my new religion. Each of the few picks I am adding has a yield ranging from 3 to 7.xy percent.  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:dunkang wrote:hisah wrote:I started the bottomed out thread on July 13, 2011 when the market was skidding with no brakes and felt endless. You are on the right track about topping out if you read the bottomed out 1st post. I have been bearish this market since Nov 2013 while the market has continued to meltup. I closely follow Mpesa bank and it has proved to be a reliable signal since its IPO debut. The likes of @mukiri has been throwing stones at me for being the party spoiler with my never appearing sizable market selloff. False prophesy etc NSE20 has the buying climax symptoms across many counters. When crappy stocks (very small caps) rally on endless price gaps on small volume, the market has run out of quality picks! @hisa, you have been singing this climax song for soooo looong, remember you sold SafCom at 5.80/-, didn't you? I dare say, lets throw away all the valuation b.s and swim with the tide!!! True but remember, the trend is your friend except at the end when it bends - Ed SeykotaAnd we could be right at the end of that trend.Yesterday's NSE close of 5406 could as well be the top. Today, we were down 29 points. The top will be confirmed by week close. Watch out for the divergence, what @Hisah calls price gaps which have to be filled. Don't write him off as yet. As i finish, most of this bull run you are seeing has been due to foreign buys. When the FED ups its cbr from 0.25 by mid June next year, the correction will be one to watch! Locally, CBK has begun the excess liquidity mop up to tame the KES pressure. Higher interest rates are on the way. A shift to fixed income will follow. #Staytuned Calling on Duncan ..................exactly 1 year 11 months ago and the market was awash with liquidity. We all know what happened to KES, and by extension, the NSE exactly an year afterwards. A two year insight on market events, amazing. used wisely this info can make one very rich The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Very true @guy. Only an year ago, we all were presented with an opportunity to grab some risk free treasuries at 23% when the USD bolted. Fixed income remains king, especially if you consider the characters at the helm. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Is that NBK stranded at 7? What a haircut  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Is that NBK stranded at 7? What a haircut No buyers. This is very sad for people frantically trying to exit this zombie  Poleni to any NBK shareholders reading this KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mkate_nusu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Is that NBK stranded at 7? What a haircut No buyers. This is very sad for people frantically trying to exit this zombie Poleni to any NBK shareholders reading this I wish i could say im surprised but im not. slowly joining cousins. KQ, Mumias, uchumi huko chini The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Very true @guy. Only an year ago, we all were presented with an opportunity to grab some risk free treasuries at 23% when the USD bolted. Fixed income remains king, especially if you consider the characters at the helm.
I am of the same opinion. The economy is not growing fast enough to create the demand for product and services that will result in significantly increased incomes. Demand for products has generally gone down for most businesses despite the said circa 5% annual GDP growth. Except for services like sportpesa and commuications (safaricom, etc), demand for products and services is not increasing if you ask many business people. So I don't see a real bull returning to NSE soon.... We may see a correction upwards but the general trend I expect until 2018 will be towards south.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Liv wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Very true @guy. Only an year ago, we all were presented with an opportunity to grab some risk free treasuries at 23% when the USD bolted. Fixed income remains king, especially if you consider the characters at the helm.
I am of the same opinion. The economy is not growing fast enough to create the demand for product and services that will result in significantly increased incomes. Demand for products has generally gone down for most businesses despite the said circa 5% annual GDP growth. Except for services like sportpesa and commuications (safaricom, etc), demand for products and services is not increasing if you ask many business people. So I don't see a real bull returning to NSE soon.... We may see a correction upwards but the general trend I expect until 2018 will be towards south. Hey @Liv....for a moment i thought i was reading @Hisah's stuff.......you know that blue font colour is his trademark I agree with your sentiments, the bears are still on the driver's seat until some helicopter money shows up....Not possible because of the Eurobond and SGR USD loans we tied ourselves with. The greatest task Gok has since then is to keep the USD bulls in check to prevent further forex losses on the above loans. This they will continue doing until they clear these loans....God knows when. in the meantime, Arap and his battalion are happy at the feeding table. I see he got his guys to head more parastatals like Kengen and KCB @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,569
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Very true @guy. Only an year ago, we all were presented with an opportunity to grab some risk free treasuries at 23% when the USD bolted. Fixed income remains king, especially if you consider the characters at the helm. You have too much faith in treasuries and GoK. Have you seen how shabbily the govt suppliers have been treated? Seen how Kengen, NBK, uchumi were treated when seeking cash from the govt? This govt has decided to maximize tax revenues instead of maximizing economic output, heck I have KRA goons chasing me all over town. This is more like when the colonial govt after the lunatic express line was unable to pay for itself decided to levy poll tax and hut taxes. When raising taxes becomes impossible then the devil's alternative will come into play, print cash. Don't get too tied up with fixed income, you are better off buying quality assets at rock bottom prices.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Is that NBK stranded at 7? What a haircut No buyers. This is very sad for people frantically trying to exit this zombie Poleni to any NBK shareholders reading this I wish i could say im surprised but im not. slowly joining cousins. KQ, Mumias, uchumi huko chini Very sad. People are busy saving, denying themselves lots of comfort so as to invest at the NSE while Gok is busy screwing its listed firms And this is my final warning to investors at the NSE. TOUCH ANY PARASTATAL/GOK FIRM AT YOUR OWN PERILOf course we have success stories where Gok has some stake eg Safaricom. Let me also emphasis that with a disciplined government, Gok firms are the best to invest in. Between 2003 and 2007, the highest gains were in these firms....but again, that was a different dispensation. For now, you will be wise to invest in high yielding dividend stocks, firms with a low gearing ratio, companies with a history of sound management and profitability and lastly, a strategic partner with VETO powers. Please remember to also invest in Treasuries, there is a whole thread of how to go about that. A broke Gok always means high yields @SufficientlyP
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